Global Oil, Gas and Energy Sector News on January 18, 2026: Iran, Venezuela, Oil, Gas, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 18, 2026, present a mixed picture for investors and market participants. In the Middle East, there is a relative de-escalation: following unrest in Iran and threatening statements from the US, tensions are subsiding, temporarily alleviating the risk of oil supply disruptions. Concurrently, cautious optimism about a rise in global supply is emerging due to Venezuela's gradual return to the market: US-supported steps by the new Venezuelan leadership to increase production instil hope, although the effects will not be felt immediately. Globally, oil prices remain under pressure from excess supply and moderate demand - with Brent holding steady in the mid-$60s per barrel after last week’s volatility. The European gas market is experiencing a winter demand surge; however, record LNG imports and significant storage reserves are preventing prices from reaching extreme levels. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: countries are witnessing new records in renewable energy generation (RES), although governments are not yet abandoning traditional resources to ensure the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, authorities maintain restrictions on fuel exports and other stabilisation measures to prevent deficits and price spikes in the domestic oil products market following last year’s volatility. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Limited Demand Restrain Prices
The global oil market at the beginning of 2026 shows relative price stability at a lower level. The North Sea Brent blend hovers around $64 per barrel, while American WTI is in the $59–60 range. These levels are still approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual correction following the price peak during the energy crisis of 2022–2023. Key factors exerting pressure remain the excessive supply and only restrained demand growth. While OPEC+ countries continue to adhere to production restrictions, there is a growing wave of supply from non-OPEC sources - primarily from increased production in North America, as well as restored volumes from previously sanctioned countries like Iran and Venezuela. Analysts note that without a significant rise in consumption (for example, through accelerated economic growth and demand in Asia), oil will remain in a relatively narrow price range in the medium term. Short-term price surges due to geopolitical events are quickly offset: for instance, concerns over a potential military conflict in the Middle East triggered price increases mid-week, but subsequent softening of Washington's rhetoric and the maintenance of steady export flows quickly brought prices back down. Overall, the balance in the oil market currently favours buyers - global oil inventories are gradually growing, and competition for markets is intensifying. In the absence of unforeseen shocks or new decisive moves from OPEC, the current price environment is expected to remain close to present levels, with moderately low oil prices near the mid-$60s per barrel.
Gas Market: Cold Winter and Record LNG Imports Restrain Price Growth
In the gas market, the focus is on a sharp increase in seasonal demand due to cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In Europe, prolonged winter chills have led to active withdrawal of gas from underground storage: reserves in EU countries have fallen to approximately 55–60% of capacity, while a year earlier they exceeded 64% at this date. However, the situation remains manageable due to the flexibility offered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. In mid-January, European LNG terminals achieved record levels of regasification - daily LNG deliveries to the EU gas transport system exceeded 480 million cubic metres, surpassing previous historical highs. This influx has helped compensate for declining transit of pipeline gas and curb price increases. Although spot gas prices in Europe have risen by about 30–40% compared to the beginning of the month, they remain far from the peak energy-deficit values of 2022. Cold weather has also stimulated demand in Asia: key importers in Northeast Asia are ramping up LNG purchases, with Asian spot prices (JKM index) rising to around $10 per MMBtu, marking a six-week high. Nevertheless, the global gas market is generally balanced: the redirection of supplies between regions and sufficient global production levels are meeting the increased demand. In the US, the largest producer, natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are around $3 per million BTU, supporting the competitiveness of American LNG in foreign markets. In the upcoming weeks, gas price dynamics will depend on weather conditions: should cold conditions persist, high demand on storage will continue; however, record LNG import rates afford Europe a buffer to navigate the winter without critical disruptions.
Iran and Sanctions: De-escalation of Tensions and New Supply Factors
The geopolitical landscape affecting energy markets has undergone significant changes. In Iran, by mid-January, the wave of mass protests that erupted late last year is gradually subsiding, and the immediate risk of military escalation from the US has diminished. Earlier aggressive rhetoric from Washington regarding potential strikes on Iranian sites has given way to more measured statements, particularly after Tehran demonstrated a willingness to make certain concessions in addressing its internal situation. The American military presence in the region (including the arrival of a carrier group in the Persian Gulf) is now viewed more as a deterrent factor rather than a harbinger of imminent conflict. Market concerns regarding the potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz or other disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies have temporarily eased, which has removed some geopolitical risk premium from oil prices.
Concurrently, interesting shifts are emerging on the sanctions front. Washington still maintains all existing restrictions against the Russian oil and gas sector, with no significant easing of these measures having occurred. Russian energy resources continue to be redirected to alternative markets - primarily in Asia - at substantial discounts, with Western sanctions remaining a significant factor in the global trading environment. However, regarding Venezuela, the US stance is becoming more flexible: following political changes in Caracas, American authorities signal readiness to accelerate the lifting of oil sanctions. In particular, licenses for international oil companies to operate in Venezuela are being expanded - in the coming months, Chevron and other operators will be able to increase Venezuelan oil exports. These steps, supported by the new reform-oriented Venezuelan government, are expected to eventually return significant volumes of hydrocarbons to the global market. However, experts warn that the recovery of Venezuelan oil production will be gradual: years of insufficient investment and sanctions have severely curtailed the country’s production capacity. Nevertheless, the mere prospect of increased supply from Venezuela boosts consumer confidence and pressures speculative sentiments, limiting price increases. Thus, geopolitical risks at the beginning of 2026 have somewhat adjusted: Middle Eastern tensions have eased, while the West's sanctioning policy demonstrates targeted flexibility, creating an overall more favourable backdrop for the global energy market than previously anticipated.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing pressure from Western countries demanding a reduction in cooperation with sanctioned suppliers, New Delhi has temporarily reduced purchases of Russian oil and gas in recent months. However, India considers a sharp abandonment of these energy sources impossible given their critical role in national energy security. The country continues to receive raw materials from Russian companies on preferential terms: according to traders, the discount on the Russian Urals grade for Indian buyers reaches $4–5 relative to Brent, making these supplies highly attractive. As a result, India retains its status as one of the largest importers of Russian oil while simultaneously increasing imports of oil products (such as diesel) to meet rising domestic demand. Concurrently, the Indian government is intensifying its efforts to reduce dependence on imports in the future. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced a programme to develop deepwater oil and gas extraction on the continental shelf: the state company ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Initial results are deemed promising, instilling hope for the discovery of new large fields. This strategy aims to bring India closer to the goal of energy self-sufficiency in the long term.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to increase energy consumption, balancing import growth with domestic production expansion. Beijing has not supported Western sanctions against Moscow and has taken advantage of the situation to increase purchases of Russian energy sources on favourable terms. Analysts estimate that in 2025, oil and gas import volumes to China rose by 2–5% compared to the previous year, exceeding 210 million tonnes of oil and 250 billion cubic metres of gas, respectively. Growth rates have somewhat slowed compared to spikes in 2024, but remain positive. Concurrently, China is setting records for domestic production: last year, national companies extracted over 200 million tonnes of oil and 220 billion cubic metres of gas, which is 1–6% higher than the levels of a year ago. The state is investing heavily in the development of difficult-to-access fields, the introduction of new extraction technologies, and increasing yields from mature oil reservoirs. However, despite all efforts, China remains import-dependent: approximately 70% of the oil consumed and nearly 40% of gas must be imported. In the coming years, these proportions are unlikely to change drastically due to the scale of the economy and energy intensity of industry. Thus, India and China - the two key consumers in Asia - continue to play a crucial role in global raw material markets, skillfully navigating between the need to import significant volumes of fuel and the desire to develop their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is accelerating, setting new benchmarks in energy markets. By the end of 2025, several countries recorded record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. In Europe, total generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed that from coal and gas-fired plants for the first time in a year, consolidating the trend towards a shift in the balance in favour of “green” energy. In Germany, Spain, the UK, and several other countries, the share of RES in electricity consumption regularly exceeded 50% on certain days due to the commissioning of new capacities. In the US, renewable energy also reached a historical high: at the beginning of 2025, over 30% of all electricity generated came from RES, and the cumulative output from wind and solar exceeded that of coal-fired plants for the year. China remains the global leader in large-scale green construction - in 2025, the country commissioned dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines, renewing its own records for clean energy production. Considering these trends, major oil and energy companies are actively diversifying: substantial investments are being directed towards RES projects, the development of hydrogen technologies, and energy storage systems.
However, despite impressive progress in clean energy, governments and businesses still need to balance this with traditional generation. The year 2025 vividly demonstrated that in times of peak demand or adverse weather conditions (e.g., winter with low wind and solar output), fossil fuel backup capacities remain critically important for reliable energy supply. European countries, which have reduced the share of coal in recent years, still temporarily brought some coal stations back online during cold spells, while gas-fired plants bore increased loads in periods of insufficient wind. In Asia, maintaining a base load from coal generation helps prevent power supply disruptions during consumption spikes. Thus, the world is moving towards cleaner energy at an unprecedented pace, but the era of complete carbon neutrality has not yet arrived. The transitional period is characterised by the coexistence of two systems: the rapidly growing renewable sector and the traditional thermal sector that mitigates risks and smoothens seasonal and weather fluctuations. The strategy of many countries involves the parallel development of RES and the modernisation of traditional infrastructure - this approach aims to ensure the resilience of energy systems on the path to a carbon-neutral future.
Coal: High Demand Supports Market Stability
The global coal market maintains relative stability despite global decarbonisation trends. Demand for coal remains high, particularly in Asian countries. In China and India - the largest consumers of coal - this fuel continues to play a key role in electricity generation and the metallurgical industry. According to industry reports, global coal consumption in 2025 remained near historical highs, only slightly declining (by approximately 1–2%) compared to record levels in 2024. Increased coal use in developing economies compensates for its declining share in energy-deficit Europe and North America. Many Asian countries continue to commission modern coal-fired power plants with enhanced efficiency, seeking to meet growing energy demand from households and industries. On the pricing front, the situation is calmer than during the peak of the energy crisis: energy coal prices in global markets at the beginning of 2026 are around $100–110 per tonne, significantly lower than peak levels two years prior. Price easing is attributed to rising supply - major exporters (Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, Russia) have increased production, while European demand decreases with the introduction of RES. Europe continues its systematic phase-out of coal: a symbolic event was the closure in January of the last deep coal mine in the Czech Republic, marking the end of a 250-year history of coal mining in the country. Nevertheless, on a global scale, coal remains an important element of the energy balance. The International Energy Agency forecasts a plateau in global coal demand in the coming few years followed by a gradual decline. In the long term, tightening environmental policies and competition from cheap RES will limit the coal industry’s growth; however, in the short term, the coal market will continue to rely on sustained high demand from Asia.
Oil Products and Refineries: Growth in Refining Capacity Stabilises Fuel Markets
The global oil products market entered 2026 without upheaval, showing balance due to the expansion of refining capacities and adaptation of logistics chains. After acute shortages of diesel and other oil products experienced during the energy crisis, the situation has normalised: the supply of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel in the global market is sufficient to meet demand in most regions. Leading refineries worldwide are operating at high utilisation rates, and refining margins have stabilised at average levels.
- Commissioning of New Refineries: In 2025, large oil refineries were commissioned, significantly increasing total capacities. Notably, the giant Dangote Refinery complex in Africa began operations, capable of processing up to 650,000 barrels of oil per day, enhancing local fuel security and reducing the import dependence of several countries in the region. New projects also started in the Middle East and Asia: modern refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, China, and India added hundreds of thousands of barrels per day to global refining. These new capacities have helped eliminate supply bottlenecks and create surplus fuel reserves in the global market.
- Restructuring Trading Flows: Sanction restrictions and changes in demand patterns have led to a redistribution of oil product flows between regions. The European Union, having ceased direct imports of Russian oil products, has redirected its purchases towards fuel from the Middle East, Asia, and the US. Concurrently, Russia has increased exports of gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil to friendly Asian, African, and Latin American countries, partially replacing its previous European markets. This geographical transformation of trade has proceeded relatively smoothly: fuel shortages in major consumption hubs have been averted, and gasoline and diesel prices in Europe and North America even dropped compared to peak values a year ago.
- Price Stabilisation for Consumers: Thanks to the increase in refining and the establishment of new supply chains, prices for oil products at petrol stations remain within acceptable limits. In the US and Europe, the average prices of gasoline and diesel remain below the levels of early 2023, easing inflationary pressures on the economy. Developing countries are also benefiting from increased fuel availability: improved supply has prevented sharp price spikes even amid crude oil volatility. Governments in many states continue to monitor domestic fuel markets closely – if necessary, they apply mechanisms such as subsidies or temporary export restrictions to protect consumers from price shocks. As a result, a combination of factors - from the commissioning of new refineries to flexible policies - has led the global oil products market to enter 2026 in a state of relative equilibrium. For major fuel companies, this means a more predictable market environment, and for end consumers – stable prices and reliable supplies of gasoline, diesel, and other fuel types.
