Key Updates from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 17 November 2025: Sanctions Shift Trade Flows, Cold Weather Impacts Gas Stocks, and a Rise in Renewable Energy Share. Trends Analysis and Forecasts for Investors and Energy Market Participants.
Current developments in the fuel and energy complex as of 17 November 2025 are unfolding against a backdrop of conflicting trends, capturing the attention of investors and market participants. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with the West intensifying sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector, prompting a reconfiguration of hydrocarbon trade flows. At the same time, some conflicts demonstrate signs of de-escalation— a ceasefire continues in the Middle East, while the US and China maintain a temporary trade truce, improving global demand forecasts. Oil prices have stabilised at moderate levels following a recent decline, with Brent trading around $63–65 per barrel and US WTI near $59–61. These levels are significantly lower than summer peaks and approximately 10% below last month’s figures, reflecting expectations of an oil surplus by the year-end. Traders anticipate that supply will exceed demand in Q4, suppressing price growth, even as factors such as sanctions risks and potential supply disruptions prevent prices from plunging further.
Oil Market: Surplus Persists, Export Flows Shift
The global oil market continues to balance in a state of fragile equilibrium. By mid-November, oil prices stabilised following a decline in autumn: the North Sea Brent is trading around $63–65 per barrel, while US WTI is near $59–61. These levels are significantly below summer peaks and approximately 10% less than last month’s figures, reflecting expectations of an oil surplus by year-end. Traders are factoring in a scenario where supply in Q4 will surpass demand, suppressing price growth, although sanctions risks and potential supply disruptions are preventing prices from falling sharply.
- Rising Production Amidst Slowing Demand. OPEC+ countries are proceeding with scheduled production increases (an expected +137,000 barrels per day in December, followed by a pause until April). Outside the alliance, major producers such as the USA and Brazil have reached record production levels, increasing supply. However, global oil consumption growth is slowing: recent forecasts indicate that in 2025 global demand will increase by less than +0.8 million barrels/day (compared to +2 million barrels/day in 2023) due to economic slowdown and energy-saving measures.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. New sanctions imposed by the US and the UK on subsidiaries of major Russian oil companies (such as Rosneft, LUKOIL, etc.) are complicating the export of Russian oil. Moscow is being forced to reorient supplies to alternative markets. Under pressure from Western partners, Indian refiners have announced their readiness to significantly reduce purchases of Russian crude starting from late November to comply with the sanctions regime. The potential loss of India as a key buyer could radically reshape global crude flows, intensifying competition for markets. Russian exporters are already offering crude at deeper discounts to retain Asian customers.
- Geopolitical Risks Support Prices. Military conflicts continue to threaten the stability of energy supply chains. The confrontation surrounding Ukraine remains unresolved: in mid-November, a Ukrainian drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk damaged oil infrastructure, leading to a temporary halt in shipments and a price spike of more than 2%. While tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, with a ceasefire in effect, the situation remains fragile. Such risks create a sort of "geopolitical premium" in the market, preventing prices from dropping further.
Gas Market: Finding Resilience Amidst Cold Challenges
The situation in the gas market is characterised by seasonal balancing between high stock levels and weather-related challenges. Europe is entering the heating season with underground storage facilities filled to an average of around 80–82%—notably lower than the record 92% a year ago, but still providing a substantial safety cushion. Thanks to a mild autumn, European gas prices previously dropped to comfortable lows: the TTF benchmark futures recently fell to approximately €30 per MWh (around $10 per MMBtu), the lowest level since spring 2024. However, the forecasted cold snap is returning volatility to the market: as winter temperatures approach, prices have rebounded from their low point and are beginning to rise.
- High Stocks vs. Increasing Consumption. Meteorologists are warning of a sharp drop in temperatures in Western Europe (5–7 °C below normal), which will significantly increase gas consumption for heating in the coming week. Should the winter prove harsh and prolonged, European stocks may be depleted faster than usual, prompting a new surge in prices and necessitating increased gas imports.
- The Role of LNG in Balancing Supply. Liquefied natural gas remains a key source of meeting EU needs following a sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. LNG imports to Europe remain strong, bolstered by record exports from the USA, Qatar, and other producers. Meanwhile, gas demand in Asia remains moderate: the slowdown in China’s economy and filled storage in East Asia mean that there was almost no competition for LNG between Europe and Asia this autumn. This balance in the global LNG market has helped keep European prices stable.
Electricity Sector: Record Renewables and Power System Reliability
The global electricity sector is undergoing significant structural changes due to the increasing share of renewables and the modernisation of power grids. Throughout 2025, many countries have reported record levels of electricity generated from renewable sources, gradually displacing coal generation. Analysts estimate that in the first half of 2025, global renewable power generation exceeded coal-fired generation for the first time. In several developed countries, the share of solar and wind energy at certain times reaches 80–100% of consumption (in specific hours in Europe). Similar trends are observed in major economies across Asia (China, India) and North America (USA, Canada), highlighting the successes of the global energy transition. However, such rapid growth in renewables presents new challenges for maintaining the stability of the power grid during this transition.
- Supply Reliability. The variable nature of wind and solar generation necessitates accelerated development of energy storage systems and backup capacity. Gas and coal-fired power plants are still used to cover peak loads during winter hours, although their role is gradually diminishing. In countries with developed power systems, it is expected that existing reserve capacities will suffice even during abnormal cold spells, although prices for electricity may rise during peak periods. Energy companies are actively investing in grid modernisation and industrial storage systems to maintain supply reliability as the share of renewables grows.
- Government Policy and New Technologies. Governments worldwide are pursuing decarbonisation in their energy sectors. The European Union has set new ambitious targets for the share of renewables by 2030; China and India are implementing large-scale programmes for building solar and wind power plants; and the USA is introducing updated incentives for clean energy. Concurrently, there is a growing interest in "clean" nuclear energy and hydrogen technologies as important elements of the future energy system. Thus, the energy sector is moving towards a more sustainable model: "green" capacities are being increased, infrastructure is being updated, and measures are being taken to ensure stability in supply during the transition period.
Coal Sector: Demand Plateaus, Surplus Pressure on Prices
The coal industry is experiencing a pivotal moment: global demand has stabilised around historic highs and is starting to decline gradually, while production remains high. Traditional industry markets are feeling increasing pressure from environmental regulations and competition from cheap renewables.
- Peak Consumption Achieved. Global coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record ~8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, but growth has stalled in 2025. Global forecasts point to reaching a "plateau" in 2025–2026, followed by a decline in demand as climate policies tighten and renewable energy expands rapidly.
- Supply Surplus and Price Declines. Coal production remains at maximum levels, leading to a surplus of supply in the market. Global coal prices have fallen to their lowest values in recent years, reducing profitability for coal companies. Exporters with high costs (including several Russian enterprises) face particular difficulties. The market is responding: many producers are forced to cut production and investment to adapt to the new realities.
Refining and Fuel Market: Stabilisation and Price Control
Following the turbulence at the start of autumn, the global oil products market is showing signs of stabilisation. The drop in oil prices and seasonal reduction in fuel demand (with the end of the summer driving season) have allowed refineries to increase output and replenish gasoline and diesel stocks. In Europe and the USA, wholesale prices for petroleum products have retraced from September peaks, leading to a moderate decrease in fuel prices for end consumers. The situation in the domestic market in Russia, which experienced a sharp gasoline shortage in September, has also normalised thanks to emergency measures taken by authorities.
- Anti-Crisis Measures in Russia. The Russian government has temporarily banned the export of motor gasoline and diesel fuel, while also increasing subsidies for refiners to direct more resources to the domestic market. These measures have swiftly alleviated the shortage: fuel production has returned to previous levels, gas stations are stocked with fuel, and wholesale prices have fallen. Authorities have announced plans to gradually lift export restrictions as market stability is secured.
- Global Stabilisation of Fuel Prices. This autumn, the global oil products market received a respite. The increase in gasoline and diesel exports from OPEC countries and Asia has partially offset volumes lost from Russia, while the seasonal drop in consumption has allowed stocks to be replenished. Gasoline and diesel prices in key regions have reverted to levels seen at the beginning of summer: fuel prices have notably decreased in Europe and the USA compared to September peaks. It is expected that diesel and heating fuel consumption will traditionally increase in winter; however, without sharp rises in oil prices, significant fluctuations in petroleum product prices are not anticipated.
