Global news in the oil, gas, and energy sectors for Monday, 2 February 2026: crude oil and gas, electricity, renewable energy sources (RES), coal, and refineries, alongside key events in the commodity and energy markets for investors and participants in the fuel and energy complex.
Global news for the fuel and energy complex on Monday, 2 February 2026, covers key events in the oil and gas industry as well as the power sector. Trends in oil and gas markets, the impact of geopolitics and sanctions, extreme winter conditions, the transition to renewable resources, the coal market situation, and domestic measures to stabilise fuel prices are discussed. These events shape a complex backdrop for investors and companies, reflecting the intricacies of the global energy market.
Oil Market: Winter Demand Supports Prices Amid Oversupply Concerns
Global oil prices remain at a relatively high level due to a variety of factors, although further increases are tempered by expectations of an oversupply later in the year. Brent crude is holding at around $64–66 per barrel, while American WTI is between $60–62, bouncing back from five-month lows recorded at the end of 2025. Prices remain below last year's peaks, and investors are exercising caution amid mixed signals regarding demand and supply.
- Seasonal Demand and Weather: The cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere has led to increased demand for heating fuel. The rise in consumption of petroleum products, particularly diesel, is supporting oil prices, partially offsetting the slowdown in the global economy.
- Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are driving prices upwards. The US administration has renewed its tough rhetoric towards Iran, increasing the risk premium on oil prices due to threats of supply disruptions.
- Financial Factors: The weakening of the US dollar has made commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating investor interest in oil. Hedge funds have increased long positions, signalling a return of speculative optimism to the market.
- OPEC+ Policy: The oil alliance is maintaining a cautious approach to production. Voluntary restrictions by some participants have been extended until the end of Q1 2026 to prevent market oversaturation. Maintaining quotas supports prices and helps prevent declines during the seasonally weak demand period.
The combined influence of these factors keeps oil prices stable compared to recent lows. However, forecasts from the International Energy Agency warn that global oil inventories could begin to rise by millions of barrels per day in the second half of 2026 if demand does not accelerate. The risk of oversupply limits the potential for further increases in oil prices, with markets pricing in cautious expectations for the coming months.
Gas Market: Europe Rapidly Depletes Reserves Amid Frosts
The global gas market is characterised by differing trends across regions. In Europe, extreme cold has led to a surge in gas consumption and record withdrawals from storage, while North America is experiencing a local price crisis, with Asia remaining relatively balanced for now.
- Europe: EU countries entered February with significantly reduced gas reserves. Underground storage is only about 45% full (compared to ~55% a year ago)—far below the peaks of 2022. Nevertheless, robust imports of liquefied natural gas and stable pipeline supplies from Norway and North Africa have kept prices at a relatively moderate level. Prices at the TTF hub have stabilised around €40 per MWh following a spike in January—this is significantly lower than the peaks of 2022.
- USA: In North America, gas prices have risen considerably. In January, the Henry Hub exceeded $5 per million BTU, over 50% higher than last year's levels. The reasons include record LNG exports from the US and abnormal cold temperatures causing wells to freeze and production disruptions. The gas shortage in the domestic market has compelled energy companies to temporarily revert to coal generation to prevent outages and curb price increases for consumers.
- Asia: In major Asian economies (China, Japan, South Korea), gas prices remain relatively stable. A mild start to winter and long-term contracts for LNG have safeguarded the region from fuel shortages. Moderate economic growth in China and India is curbing demand increases, leading to low competition with Europe for spot LNG cargoes.
Weather conditions are already causing energy supply disruptions: January storms resulted in widespread power outages in the US and Northern Europe. In the coming weeks, weather will remain a key factor: persistent severe frosts in February may complicate the situation with reserves in Europe and trigger further price fluctuations in the global gas market.
International Politics: Sanction Pressures and Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical factors continue to influence the energy sector. The collective West maintains a stringent sanctions regime against Russia. By the end of 2025, the EU finalized its 19th sanctions package, closing the last loopholes for circumventing the oil embargo, and from 1 January 2026, a full ban on purchases of Russian pipeline gas has been implemented, bringing Europe’s exit from Russian energy resources to a logical conclusion. The United States has expanded its restrictions by imposing sanctions on major Russian oil companies and 25% tariffs on a number of Indian goods—a signal to New Delhi regarding the import of Russian oil. Russian oil and gas are now sold only to a limited number of countries—primarily China and India—with significant discounts.
At the same time, cautious signals for dialogue have emerged. According to insider sources, the US is discussing scenarios for gradually normalising relations with Russia in closed talks with allies, in the event of a resolution to the Ukrainian crisis. No easing of sanctions has occurred yet, but the mere fact of such consultations indicates a search for diplomatic solutions in the future. Furthermore, Washington has considered the possibility of lifting new tariffs against India after it reduced purchases of Russian oil. These targeted measures are likely to have minimal immediate effect, yet markets tend to react positively to any hints of de-escalation. However, if peace negotiations stall, sanction pressures may intensify, creating long-term risks for the oil and gas sector.
Reconfiguration of Energy Trade and New Alliances
Sanctions and the shifting global political landscape are forcing countries to reconfigure energy supply chains. New trade routes and partnerships are emerging, reshaping the landscape of the global fuel and energy complex:
- Russia – China: Moscow is redirecting exports of oil, gas, coal, and electricity eastward, increasing supplies to China to compensate for lost European markets.
- Europe and New Partners: The EU is diversifying its supplies by augmenting gas imports from Norway and Algeria, oil from the Middle East and Africa, while also enhancing procurements of petroleum products from India instead of Russia. European refineries have already adapted logistics to accommodate the new feedstocks, reducing dependence on the RF.
New agreements also encompass advanced technologies. Partners are investing in hydrogen energy, biofuels, and energy storage systems, laying the groundwork for the future sustainability of the global energy sector.
Renewable Energy and the Global Energy Transition
At the January IRENA assembly in Abu Dhabi, country leaders confirmed their commitment to accelerating the transition to renewable sources. Major oil and gas nations are announcing extensive investments in solar and wind power plants, and the EU, under the REPowerEU programme, is introducing new RES capacities to substitute for gas and achieve climate targets.
Oil and gas corporations are also adjusting to new realities. A portion of the superprofits from high hydrocarbons is being directed towards 'green' projects—from offshore wind parks to 'green' hydrogen production. Many companies have announced goals of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and are increasing their presence in RES, biofuels, and energy storage segments to maintain competitiveness in the future.
Nevertheless, the energy transition faces challenges. In some countries, a change in political course (for example, in the US) temporarily weakens state support for clean energy, but the private sector continues to invest vigorously in RES. Thus, the 'green' trend remains a strategic direction, even if short-term fluctuations may occur due to political conditions.
Coal Market: Demand Approaching Historical Highs
Global coal consumption reached record levels in 2025, mainly driven by Asian countries, where rising electricity demand and high gas prices have resulted in increased coal burning. The coal market remains tight, with prices remaining high. However, as the adoption of RES accelerates, global demand is expected to plateau soon, followed by a decline. For now, coal remains an important source of base load generation, especially in developing economies.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilisation through State Efforts
By the beginning of 2026, retail prices for petrol and diesel in Russia have stabilised after sharp increases in the previous year, attributed to tax changes and increased exports. The government intervened by temporarily limiting exports of petroleum products and providing subsidies to refineries to saturate the domestic market. These measures have halted price increases.
The authorities express readiness to prolong regulation to prevent a new fuel crisis. At the same time, a phased lifting of the ban on gasoline exports is being considered to avoid overflowing storage facilities and a surplus at refineries. Thus, a balance between the interests of fuel consumers and producers is maintained through manual methods—the government continues to play a key role in ensuring price stability in the domestic market.
