Global Oil, Gas and Energy News for Saturday, 10th January 2026. Oil, gas, electricity, renewable energy, coal, petroleum products, and refineries: key events in the global fuel and energy complex for investors and market participants.
As we approach 2026, the global energy resource market exhibits a balanced state: excess supply is restraining price increases for oil and gas, while moderate demand is preventing sharp spikes. Prices for Brent crude have stabilised around £60-63 per barrel, and for American WTI, they are in the £55-58 range (data from early January). The gas market is experiencing a relatively calm phase: record volumes of LNG supply and a mild winter in Europe and Asia are keeping gas prices at low levels (approximately €28-30/MWh in Europe, with China at five-year lows). Investors are also noting an acceleration in the transition to green energy – renewable sources are setting production records, yet traditional coal and gas plants continue to provide stability to energy systems.
Oil Market: Excess Supply Keeps Prices in Check
The oil market continues to face pressure from fundamental factors: global supply remains high, while demand growth has slowed. In 2025, oil prices fell by nearly a fifth compared to the previous year (the most noticeable annual decline since 2020), reflecting increased production and weak global economic growth. The OPEC+ alliance suspended its planned production increase for early 2026 in December 2025 due to "market oversaturation". In their January meeting, leading exporters agreed to maintain production levels at the fourth quarter's rate to prevent further price decline. The production quotas for January to March remain unchanged: Russia – 9.574 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia – 10.103 million barrels per day, Iraq – 4.273 million barrels per day, and so on (excluding compensatory obligations).
- Pressures on Oil: OPEC+'s continued production freeze in Q1; excessive oil stocks in the market (inventory levels remain high).
- US Policy: The US government has begun selling Venezuelan oil and petroleum products (up to 30-50 million barrels) from its strategic reserves. This activity could increase supply, although prices are not reacting sharply yet.
- Oil Prices: Brent futures rose to approximately £62-63 per barrel (a minimum of 8 December), partly due to geopolitical risks. However, analysts predict that if current trends persist, prices will remain moderate and Brent could drop to £50-55 by mid-year.
- Russian Urals oil is trading at a record high discount to Brent – about £20-25 (double the annual figure). This reflects sanctions pressure and oversupply in the markets. With the rouble strengthening to approximately 80 per dollar, the rouble price of Urals has dropped to around 3000 roubles per barrel (twice below the level of a year ago).
Gas Market: Unprecedented LNG Inflows and Comfortable Stocks
The gas market benefits from favourable pricing conditions: stocks in European underground gas storage facilities are above two-thirds of their maximum capacity, providing a resilience cushion for mid-winter. February futures for TTF are holding at £28-30/MWh, significantly lower than the spring peaks of 2022. In 2025, LNG supplies to Europe reached a record 100 million tonnes, compensating for reduced pipeline volumes from Russia. An increase in competition in the LNG market is expected in 2026: the US is ramping up gas exports, directing up to 70% of shipments to Europe as new LNG infrastructure comes online.
- Supply and Demand Balance: The surplus of LNG and a mild winter are driving down prices. Analysts forecast that average annual gas prices in Europe could drop by 15-20% (to approximately $350-370 per 1000 m³), while in Asia they might fall by 15% (to roughly $11 per million BTU) due to oversupply and lack of significant demand growth.
- US LNG Exports: In 2025, US LNG shipments hit records — over 124 billion cubic metres from January to October (an increase of 23% from 2024). The majority is sent to Europe (about 70% of exports), increasing competition in the regional market.
- Prices in Asia: Cold weather is diminishing, and wholesale LNG prices in China have dropped to five-year lows due to a mild winter and ample supply. Storage facilities are filled to over 70%, forcing sellers to offload excess fuel at lower prices.
Geopolitics: Venezuela, Sanctions, and Internal Consolidation in OPEC+
Political events are significantly impacting the fuel and energy complex. Firstly, an unprecedented crisis has erupted in Venezuela: on January 3, the US detained President Maduro and effectively took control of a significant portion of the country's oil sector. Trump announced plans to bring in US oil companies to upgrade Venezuelan infrastructure and increase oil production. Despite Venezuela having the largest oil reserves in the world, current production volumes are low, and recovery will take years. Market reactions have been calm for now; investors understand that transitioning to increased supply will require time.
Secondly, internal contradictions within OPEC+ are surfacing: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have found themselves in conflict (due to the situation in Yemen), marking the most serious rift within the alliance in years. However, at the January meeting, the "eight" countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Algeria, Oman, Kuwait) demonstrated unity—unanimously agreeing to maintain production freezes and rejecting quota increases for February. This affirms the key players' desire to avoid sharp supply fluctuations and support market stability.
New sanctions actions from the West further intensify uncertainty. At the end of 2025, the US administration expanded sectoral sanctions on major Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil", which further limits export capabilities for raw materials and technologies. The European Union is also discussing tightening environmental regulations (e.g., establishing a carbon customs mechanism), which indirectly affects the global fuel sector. Overall, geopolitical risks exacerbate competition for markets and accelerate the diversification of supply chains.
Asia: India and China – Balancing Imports and Increasing Production
- India: Traditionally one of the largest buyers of cheap oil. Russian oil at discounts (approximately $5 below Brent) continues to flow into the Indian market, helping to stabilise domestic fuel prices. However, under pressure from the US (import tariffs), the largest importer of refined oil products, Reliance Industries, announced a halt to Russian supplies in January. This has led to an anticipated drop in Russian oil imports into India below 1 million barrels per day, marking a minimal figure in recent years. India is simultaneously working to increase its own production and refining capacity while actively developing renewables (solar and wind) to diversify its energy mix and reduce reliance on imports.
- China: In 2025, the PRC introduced record volumes of oil and gas to the domestic market, comparable to the previous year. Beijing actively bought resources from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at favourable prices to replenish strategic reserves. Domestic oil and gas production has only increased slightly (around 1-2%), and China continues to meet about 70% of demand through imports. Beijing is investing heavily in exploring new fields and developing technologies while rapidly expanding renewable energy production (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries). Despite efforts to increase domestic production, China will remain one of the world's largest energy importers in the coming years.
Energy Transition and Renewables: Record Growth and the Role of Traditional Sources
- New Renewable Records: The global shift to clean energy is gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries set historic highs for solar and wind power generation. In Europe, combined output from solar and wind farms surpassed generation from coal-fired plants for the first time. This reflects the accelerated phase-out of coal in favour of "green" technologies.
- Investments in Green Energy: Major global energy companies (e.g., Shell, BP, Total, and even "Rosneft" and "Novatek") are announcing large-scale greenfield projects—from offshore wind farms to large solar farms and storage systems. The drive to meet climate goals and reduce carbon footprints is stimulating billions in investments into clean energy.
- Maintaining Reserve Capacities: As the share of renewables grows, the load on the energy system increases, given that solar and wind plants produce unstable energy. Therefore, countries are retaining reserves of traditional energy sources: gas, coal, and nuclear power plants continue to provide base load and balance the grid during peak consumption periods.
- Climate Goals: Many governments are tightening environmental policies and decarbonisation plans. Governments are introducing quotas, carbon taxes, and promoting green technologies (hydrogen, electric transport, smart grids). This creates a long-term trend towards gradually decreasing the share of fossil fuels in the global energy balance.
Oil Products Market and Internal Fuel Market in the Russian Federation
- Export Restrictions: The Russian government has extended the ban on the export of petrol, diesel, marine fuel, and other oil products until the end of February 2026. This measure aims to ensure sufficient domestic supply following the shortages of 2025. The restrictions are lifted only for refiners who can export products when there is excess capacity.
- Market Assurance: Authorities cite several risks: attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries and oil depots, as well as a sharp rise in wholesale fuel prices during the summer of 2025. The situation is calmer now, with some refineries having restored normal operating levels, and seasonal demand declines (winter) eases market pressure.
- Fuel Imports from the CIS: Belarus has increased fuel supplies to Russia, allowing for replenishment of domestic reserves and stockpiling. In the case of oversupply, the Ministry of Energy is prepared to cut imports from Belarus to avoid overproduction. Thus, the risk of a total domestic market shortage is reduced.
- Petrol Prices in Russia: Thanks to the decline in wholesale quotations and the restoration of production, experts anticipate price stability at petrol stations in January 2026. Following autumn spikes, Russian authorities have lifted some regulatory measures (excise tax exemptions), leading to a moderate decline in wholesale prices, which should keep retail prices from rising sharply. Overall, the beginning of 2026 is traditionally seen as a calm period for the fuel market.
