Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 8 January 2026: Global Oil and Gas Market, Energy, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Oil Products, Key Trends and Events for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
Current developments in the global fuel and energy sector on 8 January 2026 capture the attention of investors and market participants with a combination of surplus supply and geopolitical shifts. The new year commenced with an unexpected move by the United States regarding Venezuela—a seizure of the country’s leader—which is likely to alter oil supply routes; however, demand for energy resources remains subdued, raising concerns about market oversaturation.
The global oil market is showing price declines under the pressure of oversupply, where production exceeds modest consumption growth, creating conditions for surplus at the beginning of the year. The Brent barrel remains around $60 after the holidays, reflecting a delicate balance of factors. Meanwhile, the European gas market is navigating the middle of winter without turbulence—gas reserves in EU storage remain high, and mild temperatures along with record LNG supplies are helping to keep prices restrained. The global energy transition is not slowing down: many countries are setting new records for generation from renewable energy sources (RES), although traditional resources still need to support the reliability of energy systems.
In Russia, following last year's fuel price spike, authorities are maintaining a set of measures to stabilise the domestic oil products market, including extending export restrictions. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and the Venezuelan Factor Weigh on Prices
World oil prices are under downward pressure at the start of 2026. After several weeks of gradual declines, quotes have accelerated their fall amid expectations of abundant supply. Analysts note that total oil production rose significantly last year—OPEC countries increased supplies, while non-OPEC output saw an even greater rise—resulting in the market entering 2026 with surplus. Estimates suggest a possible oversupply of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, given the slowdown in demand growth (around +1% per annum compared to the usual ~1.5%). Brent has dropped to approximately $60 per barrel, while US WTI has decreased to around $57, about 15–20% lower than the levels seen at the beginning of last year.
An additional factor has been the situation surrounding Venezuela. The unexpected detainment of President Nicolás Maduro during a US operation in early January has introduced the prospect of soon lifting the US oil embargo on Caracas. Washington announced a deal for the supply of up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the US, effectively redirecting part of Venezuela's exports that previously went to China. This news has amplified expectations of increased global supply, prompting further declines in oil prices. At the same time, the oversupply is causing OPEC+ countries to reconsider their next steps: despite previous increases in quotas, the alliance signals its readiness to cut production again if prices fall below comfortable levels. However, no new agreements have been announced as market participants closely monitor the rhetoric from Saudi Arabia and its partners regarding potential market stabilisation.
Gas Market: Europe Navigates Winter Reliably Thanks to Reserves and LNG
The gas market remains focused on Europe, where the situation is much more stable than during the peak crises of 2022–2023. EU countries entered 2026 with gas storage facilities filled to over 60%, significantly above historical average levels for mid-winter. Mild weather in December and record volumes of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) allowed for a reduction in the drawdown from storage. By early January, gas prices in Europe remain relatively low: the Dutch TTF index is trading around €28–30 per MWh (approximately $9–10 per MMBtu). Although quotes have risen slightly in recent weeks due to colder weather and seasonal increases in demand, they are still significantly lower than the peak values seen two years ago.
European energy companies are actively replacing lost supplies of pipeline gas from Russia with increased imports of LNG. In 2025, LNG supplies to Europe rose by approximately 25% year-on-year, reaching a record 127 million tonnes—mainly driven by the US, Qatar, and Africa. Newly launched floating LNG import terminals in Germany and other countries have expanded capacity and strengthened the energy security of the region. Analysts forecast that the EU will finish the current heating season with substantial reserves (around 35–40% of storage capacity by spring), instilling confidence in the stability of the gas market. In Asia, LNG prices remain somewhat higher than in Europe—the Asian JKM index holds above $10 per MMBtu—however, the global gas market is largely experiencing a phase of relative easing due to increased supply and moderate demand.
International Politics: US Redirects Venezuelan Oil, Sanction Struggles Persist
Geopolitical factors once again exert a significant influence on the energy sector. In the early days of the new year, the US conducted an unprecedented operation, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and immediately announced intentions to restart the export of Venezuelan oil to western markets. Donald Trump's administration declared that American companies are prepared to invest in Venezuela's oil sector and purchase raw materials worth $2 billion, redirecting up to 50 million barrels previously destined for China to the US. Washington presents this deal as a move to control Venezuela's largest oil reserves and increase America's energy security; however, this approach has sparked sharp discontent in Beijing.
China, the main buyer of Venezuelan oil, strongly condemned the actions of the US, labelling them as "bullying" and interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Beijing has indicated it will defend its energy interests: it is possible that China will ramp up purchases of Iranian and Russian oil or take other measures to compensate for a potential loss of Venezuelan volumes. The new escalation between leading global powers threatens geopolitical risks for the market: investors fear that competition for resources will intensify, and political maneuvers will inject volatility into prices.
Meanwhile, the sanction conflict between the West and Russia in the energy sector continues without significant changes. At the end of last year, Moscow extended the decree prohibiting the export of Russian oil and petroleum products to buyers adhering to the price cap until 30 June 2026. Thus, Russia confirms its position of not recognising the price restrictions imposed by G7 countries and the EU. European sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex remain in force, with routes for Russian energy resources fully redirected to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. There is no notable easing of sanctions or breakthrough in dialogue between Russia and Western countries, compelling the global market to operate within a new paradigm divided by sanction barriers.
Asia: India Boosts Energy Security Amid Pressure, China Increases Production
- India: Facing unprecedented pressure from the West (the US has doubled the tariffs on Indian exports to 50% since August for cooperation with Russia), New Delhi firmly establishes its position: a sharp reduction in the import of Russian oil and gas is unacceptable for the country’s energy security. Indian authorities have secured advantageous terms—Russian companies are compelled to offer additional discounts on Urals oil (about $5 off the Brent price) to maintain the Indian market. As a result, India continues to actively purchase Russian oil at discounted prices and even increases imports of petroleum products from Russia to meet rising domestic demand. Simultaneously, the country is taking steps to reduce reliance on imports in the long term. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national programme for geological exploration of deepwater oil and gas fields on Independence Day. As part of this "deepwater mission," the state-owned company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells in the Andaman Sea—by the end of 2025, an announcement was made regarding the discovery of the first natural gas field in this region. This new discovery raises hopes of bringing India closer to achieving energy independence. Furthermore, India and Russia continue to strengthen their trade and economic ties: despite external pressures, the two countries increased settlements in national currencies in 2025 and expanded cooperation in the oil and gas sector, demonstrating their commitment to the partnership.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also ramping up energy imports while increasing its domestic production. Beijing has not joined the Western sanctions and has leveraged the situation to import Russian oil and LNG at favourable prices. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian energy resources. According to Chinese customs, in 2024, the country imported about 212.8 million tonnes of crude oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas—1.8% and 6.2% more than the previous year. In 2025, imports continued to grow, albeit at more moderate rates due to a high base. Simultaneously, Chinese authorities are promoting the growth of domestic oil and gas production: from January to November 2025, national companies produced approximately 1.5% more oil than in the same period the previous year and increased natural gas production by approximately 6%. The rise in domestic production partially offsets the increase in consumption but does not negate China's need for external supplies. The government is investing significant resources in the development of fields and technologies to enhance oil recovery. However, given the vast scale of the economy, China's dependence on energy imports will remain substantial: analysts estimate that in the coming years, the country will need to import at least 70% of its consumed oil and around 40% of its used gas. Thus, India and China—two of the largest Asian consumers—will continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, combining strategies for securing overseas supplies with the development of their own resource bases.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in RES and the Importance of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum. In 2025, many countries recorded new records for electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES). Europe, by the end of the year, produced more electricity cumulatively from solar and wind plants than from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time. The trend is continuing into 2026: with the introduction of new capacities, the share of "green" energy in the EU's energy balance is steadily increasing, while the share of coal is decreasing, having retreated after a temporary spike during the 2022-2023 crises. In the US, renewable energy has also reached historic levels—over 30% of total generation now comes from RES, and last year the combined output from wind and solar for the first time exceeded that of coal-fired plants. China, being the world leader in installed RES capacity, introduces dozens of new gigawatts of solar panels and wind turbines annually, constantly breaking records for its own "green" generation.
According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3.3 trillion, with more than half of these funds directed towards RES projects, modernization of networks, and energy storage systems. In 2026, the volume of investments in clean energy could rise further amid government support programs. For example, the US has planned the introduction of around 35 GW of new solar plants over the year— a record figure, amounting to almost half of all expected new generating capacities. Analysts forecast that by 2026-2027, renewable energy sources could surpass coal to become the leading source of electricity production in the world.
At the same time, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to maintain stability. The increase in the share of sun and wind presents challenges for balancing the grid during hours when there is insufficient RES generation. Gas and even coal power plants continue to be deployed to cover peak demand and reserve capacity. For instance, during the past winter, some regions in Europe had to temporarily increase generation from coal plants during windless cold spells—despite the environmental costs. Governments in many countries are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage hydropower) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly managing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Thus, the energy transition is achieving new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources: renewable generation sets records, but the role of classic power stations remains critically important for ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply.
Coal: High Demand Ensures Market Stability
Despite the rapid development of renewable sources, the global coal market maintains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal remains high, primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and the energy needs of the electricity sector support intensive consumption of the fuel. China—the world's largest consumer and producer of coal—burned coal at nearly record levels in 2025. Output from Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tonnes per year, covering a large portion of domestic needs, although this proves barely sufficient during peak load periods (for example, during hot summers with widespread air conditioning use). India, endowed with vast coal reserves, is also increasing its use: over 70% of the country's electricity is still produced by coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is growing alongside economic expansion. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to commission new coal power plants to meet the rising demand from their populations and industries.
Global coal production and trading have adapted to consistently high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and exports of thermal coal in recent years, which has helped maintain relatively stable prices. Following the price peaks of 2022, thermal coal quotes have dropped to more normal levels and are now fluctuating within a narrow range. For example, the price of thermal coal at the European ARA hub is currently around $100 per tonne, whereas two years ago it exceeded $300. Overall, the demand-supply balance appears stable: consumers are guaranteed fuel, while producers enjoy steady sales at profitable prices. Although many governments declare plans to cut coal usage for climate goals, this energy source is expected to remain indispensable for providing electricity to billions of people over the next 5–10 years. Experts believe that, in the coming decade, coal generation—especially in Asia—will continue to play a significant role, despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices remain moderate, and the sector continues to serve as one of the pillars of global energy.
Russian Oil Products Market: Measures to Stabilise Fuel Prices
The internal fuel market in Russia continues to implement emergency measures aimed at normalising the pricing situation following last year's fuel crisis. In August 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline in the country hit historical records, leading to local shortages in some regions due to high seasonal demand (summer travel and harvesting campaigns) and reduced supply (several large refineries temporarily shut down due to accidents and drone attacks). The government intervened promptly to cool the market. On 14 August, a task force was convened under the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to monitor the situation in the energy sector, which announced a set of steps to reduce frenzy in the market. Implemented and ongoing measures include:
- Extension of the fuel export ban: The complete ban on exporting automotive gasoline and diesel fuel, introduced in early August, has been repeatedly extended and is currently in effect (at least until the end of February 2026) for all producers. This directs additional volumes—hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fuel per month—that were previously intended for export back to the domestic market.
- Partial resumption of supplies for major refineries: As the market balance improves, restrictions have been partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October, several large refineries have been allowed to resume limited export shipments under government supervision. However, the embargo on fuel exports still remains for independent traders, oil depots, and small refineries, preventing the leakage of scarce resources abroad.
- Control of distribution within the country: The authorities have intensified oversight of fuel movement on the domestic market. Oil companies are required to primarily meet the needs of domestic consumers and to avoid practices of mutual exchange on exchanges that earlier inflated prices. Regulators (the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service, and the St. Petersburg Exchange) are developing long-term measures—such as a direct contract system between refineries and gas station networks bypassing the exchange—to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries and smooth price fluctuations.
- Subsidies and "damper": The state continues to provide financial support to the sector. Budget subsidies and the reverse excise mechanism (the "damper") continue to compensate oil producers for part of the lost export revenue, encouraging refiners to direct a larger volume of gasoline and diesel fuel to the domestic market without incurring losses due to lower local prices.
The combination of these measures has already shown results: the fuel crisis has been kept under control. Despite record exchange rates last summer, retail prices at gas stations in 2025 have only increased by about 5% since the beginning of the year (within the inflation range). Gas stations are adequately supplied with fuel, and the implemented measures are gradually cooling the wholesale market. The government states that it will continue to act proactively: if necessary, restrictions on the export of oil products will be extended into 2026, and in case of local shortages, resources from state reserves will be promptly directed to problematic regions. Monitoring of the situation continues at the highest levels, with authorities ready to implement new mechanisms to ensure the country's fuel supply stability and keep prices within acceptable limits for consumers.
