Current news in the oil, gas, and energy sectors for Friday, 21 November 2025: oil and gas dynamics, energy in Europe and Asia, sanctions, renewable energy, coal, and refining. Analysis for investors and companies in the energy sector.
Friday, 21 November 2025 welcomes participants in the global energy market amid mixed conditions. Oil prices remain within a moderate range, with Brent quotes fluctuating around $63–64 per barrel, reflecting a combination of oversupply and cautious demand. In the European gas market, the onset of the heating season comes with relatively high, though no longer record, levels of storage, while Asian consumers are closely monitoring LNG prices. The situation is further complicated by sanctions: the implementation of new restrictions against Russian oil and gas companies is altering export routes for oil and petroleum products. Meanwhile, the world continues its accelerated energy transition—investments in renewable energy and electricity are reaching new highs, although oil, gas, and coal remain the foundation of the energy market.
Global backdrop: soft demand and oversupply in the oil market
In 2025, the global energy sector finds itself in conditions characterised by steady, albeit non-explosive, demand and growing supply. For investors, the key question remains the balance of oil and gas amid high interest rates and a slowing global economy.
- Oil. After noticeable volatility in autumn, Brent and WTI prices have consolidated around $60–65 per barrel. The market anticipates a scenario of oversupply due to increased production by OPEC+ countries and rising supply from the US, Brazil, and other producers.
- Gas. The European gas market has entered the heating season with a relatively comfortable level of underground storage, although below last year's records. This creates room for price volatility during prolonged cold spells. In Asia, LNG prices are being restrained by moderate demand and the development of alternative energy sources.
- Macroeconomics. High key interest rates in the US and Europe, coupled with slowing growth in China, are putting pressure on industrial demand for energy resources. At the same time, the transportation and petroleum products sector is maintaining a baseline level of consumption.
Oil market: sanctions, discounts, and new supply trajectories
As of 21 November 2025, the oil market's attention is focused on the sanctions policy and its impact on the exports of Russian companies. In the face of new restrictions and possible revisions to price caps, Russia is forced to offer additional discounts on its oil to maintain supply volumes to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. This intensifies the segmentation of the global oil market and establishes several price levels for various grades of crude oil.
- Production and quotas. OPEC+ countries have yet to announce any significant new production cuts, limiting themselves to flexible rhetoric. At current price levels, most producers maintain profitability, but they are wary of further market saturation.
- Price structure. Front-month futures for Brent are trading at a discount to longer-dated contracts, reflecting expectations of oversupply in the coming months. This poses additional risks for long-term projects, but supports consumers.
- Investment decisions. Oil majors in North America, the Middle East, and Atlantic waters will continue to develop only the most cost-competitive projects, approaching capital investments cautiously amid increasing pressure from climate policies.
Gas market: Europe, Asia, and the role of LNG in energy
Gas remains a key fuel in the transition period between traditional energy and renewable energy. In 2025, the gas energy market is shaped by three factors: storage levels, electricity demand, and geopolitical constraints.
- Europe. EU countries have entered winter with gas storage levels at around 75–80% of working capacity—significantly lower than record levels but still comfortably sufficient for the start of the season. A scenario of a harsh winter could still lead to accelerated gas withdrawal and price increases, which remains a key risk for the industry.
- Asia. In China and other Asian economies, domestic gas production and long-term LNG contracts reduce sensitivity to spot price spikes. However, a sharp increase in demand could heighten the competition for LNG between Europe and Asia once again.
- LNG market. New capacity from LNG exporters in the US, Qatar, and East Africa continues to redistribute gas flows. For investors in the energy sector, this implies an increased importance of projects linked to global gas indices and the need to account for both local and inter-regional price signals.
Electricity and coal: high loads and climate policy pressure
The electricity market in 2025 exhibits steady load growth amid digitalisation, electrification of transport, and industry. Nonetheless, coal remains an important generation source in developing countries, despite climate pressures.
- Electricity. In Europe and the US, utilities are preparing for potential winter peaks in demand by increasing reserve capacities and modernising networks. As the share of renewables increases, ensuring the stability of energy systems becomes a key challenge.
- Coal. Global coal consumption in 2025 shifts from the growth phase to a plateau. Amid tightening climate requirements and the development of renewables, mining companies are compelled to optimise costs and postpone launching new projects.
- Regulation. In several countries, additional carbon pricing and quotas are being implemented, stimulating the shift from coal to gas and renewable energy sources, which directly influences the structure of generation and price dynamics in the electricity sector.
Renewables and the energy transition: record investments and new challenges
Renewable energy sources (RES) are the primary beneficiaries of the global energy transition. In 2025, investments in "green" energy and electricity infrastructure continue to break records, outpacing investments in fossil fuels. This indicates intensified competition between the traditional energy sector and the emerging "clean" energy landscape.
- Investment trend. Global investments in solar and wind generation, energy storage, and networks in 2025 have approached levels comparable to total investments in oil, gas, and coal. This increases pressure on the margins of traditional companies, forcing them to diversify their business models.
- Technologies. Scaling up energy storage systems, developing hydrogen projects, and digital demand management platforms are key growth directions. New solutions enable better integration of renewables into energy systems and reduce reliance on peak gas and coal generation.
- Regional gap. Although developed economies and China concentrate a significant portion of investments, developing markets are facing a capital shortage for "green" projects. This creates a niche for international financial institutions and private investors willing to take on country risks.
Petrochemicals and refineries: stabilising margins and domestic price policies
The petrochemical market at the end of 2025 demonstrates a more stable picture compared to the beginning of the year. For refineries in Europe, Asia, Russia, and the Middle East, the key challenge remains flexible management of load and the range of petroleum products produced.
- Refining margin. A decrease in oil prices amid steady demand for diesel and jet fuel supports refining margins. This encourages refineries to maximise the use of modernized capacities, especially in regions with developed export infrastructure.
- Domestic markets. In many countries, including Russia, measures to protect the domestic petroleum products market are still in place—export restrictions, damping mechanisms, and price regulation. This influences refinery strategies and balances between export and meeting domestic demand.
- Environmental standards. Increasing requirements for fuel quality (sulphur content, emissions) stimulate additional investments in refinery upgrades, hydrocracking, and processing depth. For investors, assessing the efficiency of capital expenditures concerning potential carbon taxes is critical.
Key risks and opportunities for investors in the energy sector
In the coming months, the energy market will be influenced by several key drivers directly affecting oil, gas, electricity, and related assets.
- Sanctions policy. The implementation of new sanctions against the Russian energy sector and potential tightening of price caps may enhance spreads between crude grades and reduce the profitability of certain players while creating arbitrage opportunities in trading.
- Winter factor. The nature of winter in Europe and Asia will determine the trajectory of gas and electricity prices. A harsh winter could lead to a new wave of price increases and stress test gas supply and electricity systems.
- Energy transition pace. The adoption of new climate commitments and increased investments in RES may accelerate the reallocation of capital from fossil fuels to "green" projects, intensifying structural risks for companies reliant on coal and older oil assets.
- Macroeconomics and rates. A prolonged period of high interest rates raises the cost of capital for capital-intensive projects in oil, gas, electricity, and RES. In this context, projects with low operating costs and stable cash flow tend to benefit.
Conclusion for market participants: how to act on 21 November 2025 and beyond
For investors and companies in the oil, gas, and energy sectors, the key challenge by the end of 2025 is to balance short-term market conditions with long-term energy transition trends. Moderate oil and gas prices, high investments in RES, sanction pressures, and regulatory uncertainty create a complex, yet predictable agenda.
- In the short term, attention should be focused on the dynamics of sanctions, winter demand for gas and energy resources, as well as OPEC+ decisions regarding quotas.
- In the medium term, it is critical to assess the resilience of energy companies' business models to tightening climate policies and the growing share of RES in the energy balance.
- For diversified portfolios, a prudent strategy seems to be a combination of quality oil and gas assets, infrastructure (pipelines, LNG terminals, grids), and growing segments of renewable energy and electricity.
Thus, Friday, 21 November 2025 marks a situation of "managed turbulence" in the oil, gas, and energy markets: fundamental indicators remain relatively stable, but geopolitics and climate agendas require heightened attention to risks and flexibility in investment decisions from market participants.
