Current News in Oil, Gas and Energy for Wednesday, 25 February 2026: Brent Oil at Recent Highs, OPEC+ Decisions, European Gas and LNG Markets, Oil Products and Refineries, Electricity and Renewables. A Global Overview for Investors and Industry Participants in the Energy Sector.
The oil market remains highly sensitive to news: Brent is hovering around $72 per barrel (WTI is approximately $67), reflecting the recent highs of the past few months. The key driver is the expectation of another round of US-Iran negotiations in Geneva, along with the associated risk of worsening shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. The pressure on oil prices is again reflecting a geopolitical premium, evident not only in futures but also in shipping costs.
However, the underlying fundamental picture for 2026 remains moderately oversupplied: forecasts indicate that global supply is set to grow faster than demand, and 2025 saw significant stock accumulations, including an increase in "oil on water" and the share of sanctioned flows. This does not negate the geopolitical rally but raises the likelihood that the market will "trade the headlines" without transitioning into a sustained deficit without actual disruptions in production and exports.
- OPEC+: March will see a pause in production increases; focus is on the meeting on 1 March and the likelihood of a cautious resumption of quota growth from April.
- Demand: Uncertainty is heightened by new US trade barriers and their impact on the pace of global industry and transport.
- Short-term Risks: Winter weather, emergency repairs, and export restrictions in certain supplying countries.
Freight and Logistics: Tanker Rates Become a Standalone Risk Factor
The maritime logistics market has effectively become a "second front" for oil. Freight rates for Middle Eastern oil to Asia have surged to multi-year highs due to a combination of increased exports from the Persian Gulf and US-Iran geopolitical risks. The shortage of available "clean" tonnage is exacerbated by sanctions and the expansion of the aging fleet segment servicing sanctioned flows, reducing the supply of vessels in a transparent market.
The practical implication for oil and gas companies and traders is a reassessment of the economics of arbitrage: high freight and insurance costs can make crude and oil product shipments unfeasible even when exchange spreads look attractive. As a result, part of the volatility is shifting from the "paper" curve to physical differentials and basis premiums on key routes from the Middle East to Asia.
Oil Products and Refineries: Strong Winter Demand amid Seasonal Maintenance Kickoff
The oil products segment at the end of winter is traditionally sensitive to weather and technical risks. In the US, the latest weekly figures indicate significant declines in stocks of crude, gasoline, and distillates amidst high refinery utilisation (around 91%) and increased consumption—supporting oil products and reducing the likelihood of a sharp price drop under other equal conditions. Simultaneously, the maintenance season compels the market to closely monitor any unscheduled shutdowns of major refineries.
For Europe, additional stress tests remain around the sanction-induced uncertainty surrounding specific refining assets and raw material logistics: restrictions on financing, insurance, and long-term contracts can quickly lead to local imbalances in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. For global traders, this means an increased importance of regional premiums and product quality, while for fuel companies, there is a need to maintain more flexible supply chains.
- Diesel and Distillates: This segment often sets the 'mood' for the oil products market during winter.
- Refineries and Maintenance: Maintenance schedules are as much a pricing factor as oil quotes.
- Fuel Logistics: Financial and insurance constraints increasingly affect the availability of supplies alongside physical capacities.
Gas and LNG: Europe Receives Record Volumes, but Storage Levels at One Third
The European natural gas market is concluding winter with a high share of LNG in its balance. February is on track for record LNG arrivals in Europe: the primary volumes are provided by the US, with Russian LNG remaining a notable source. The main challenge shifts to the injection season: by the end of February, underground storage is expected to be approximately a third full—below seasonal norms, increasing the sensitivity of European prices to weather and Asian spot rates.
Structurally, the market is supported by growth in global LNG supply: acceleration in the commissioning of new capacities and an increase in global production/export, primarily from North America, is expected, with additional growth in capacity also anticipated in the Middle East in the long run. However, Asia remains the 'switch': the return of China and major buyers to the spot market could quickly siphon off marginal cargoes and drive up European volatility. In the US, the winter profile is evidenced by significant weekly withdrawals from storage, keeping attention on both Henry Hub and LNG export balances.
Pipelines and Sanctions: Druzhba, Central Europe, and the EU's Decision to 'Embed' the Phase-Out of Russian Oil
Transit risks remain one of the most underestimated drivers of volatility. The Druzhba oil pipeline, amidst damage and delays in restoring transit, has become a source of political pressure: Hungary and Slovakia publicly link their support for Ukraine with the resumption of supplies, utilising strategic reserves and reassessing their roles in ensuring Ukraine's energy system.
Concurrently, the European Union is preparing a legal mechanism to codify a complete phase-out of Russian oil imports by the end of 2027, making it resilient to potential changes in the sanctions regime. For the global oil trade, this signifies more intense competition for "non-Russian" barrels on the horizon for 2026-2027, an increased significance of alternative routes (Middle East, North Sea, Africa, US, Latin America), and the continuation of discounts/premiums depending on the sanctions status of shipments.
In the UK, the largest sanctions package since 2022 has been announced, impacting infrastructure and aspects of 'shadow' logistics. Such decisions typically operate through secondary effects—insurance, financing, vessel availability, and services—thus potentially affecting oil, oil products, and shipping costs simultaneously.
Electricity, Renewables and Networks: Growth in Wind and Solar Amidst 'Weather Gaps'
The European electricity sector continues its energy transition: in 2025, wind and solar surpassed fossil fuel generation for the first time in share of output, with low-carbon sources (renewables and nuclear) forming the major part of the balance. However, the efficiency of this structure increasingly relies on networks, storage, and demand flexibility: a lack of capacity leads to forced limitations on renewable generation, while periods of low wind raise the need for gas and coal generation—and, by extension, for fuel and carbon quotas.
An additional layer of risk is weather. Germany, the largest producer of wind energy in Europe, is facing an extended period of low wind; forecasts indicate a likelihood of below-normal generation in the first quarter of 2026. In practice, this means higher intraday volatility in the electricity market and increased sensitivity in demand for gas, coal, and balancing capacities. The European Commission is discussing measures to accelerate investments in networks and energy efficiency, including mechanisms to mobilise private capital for infrastructure projects.
What Matters to Investors and Industry Participants on 25 February
Tomorrow, the market will be recalibrating the risk premium in real time. For oil, gas, refinery, energy, and trading companies, this day will see "small" signals (statements, maintenance schedules, weather forecasts) potentially influencing money flows in spreads and logistics.
- US–Iran: Any hint of de-escalation/escalation will impact Brent, freight, and insurance premiums in the Persian Gulf.
- Druzhba and the EU: The status of transit and decisions from Central Europe will define regional premiums for crude and fuel.
- Gas and LNG: The pace of deliveries to Europe and Asia's willingness to pay spot premiums—key to TTF volatility.
- Oil Products and Refineries: In the maintenance season, any disruption quickly influences diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.
- Electricity: Wind and temperature forecasts remain the best quick indicators for gas and coal demand in generation.
