Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, 19 December 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
As we reach the end of December, significant changes are taking place in the global fuel and energy sector. A combination of multi-year price lows for commodities and geopolitical shifts is creating a mixed backdrop that is attracting the attention of investors and market participants. On one hand, oil is trading at its lowest levels in recent years, driven by expectations of oversupply and signs of progress in resolving the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, gas prices in Europe continue to decline even in winter conditions due to record liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Meanwhile, global coal demand has peaked in 2025 and is close to the beginning of a sustained decline as the energy transition accelerates.
In this context, governments and companies are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to mitigate sanction-related tensions and ensure supply stability, while others are ramping up investments in both the oil and gas sector and green energy. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends within the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil and Oil Products
The global oil market remains pressured, with prices near multi-year lows. The North Sea Brent blend is holding around $60 per barrel (occasionally dipping below this psychological level), while American WTI is trading at around $55 – these figures are the lowest since 2020. The main factors impacting the decline in oil prices include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: A surplus of production over demand is anticipated for 2026. Non-OPEC countries (most notably the USA and Brazil) have ramped up production to record levels. Simultaneously, the pace of global demand growth is slowing – industry forecasts indicate an increase in demand of about +0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (down from more than +2 million in 2023), leading to the accumulation of inventories and pressuring prices.
- Hope for Peace in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has given rise to expectations of a partial lifting of sanctions and a return of some Russian oil exports to the market. The prospect of a ceasefire has bolstered predictions of increased supply, contributing to the drop in oil prices.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradually increasing production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to halt further expansion in Q1 2026. The cartel is signalling caution amid the risk of oversaturation in the market and its readiness to adjust production levels if necessary, although no official announcements regarding unscheduled actions have been made.
Under the influence of these factors, oil prices have significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. There is a likelihood that Brent and WTI will end 2025 at their lowest values since mid-2020. The decline in commodity prices has already been reflected in the petroleum product market: gasoline and diesel have become cheaper in most regions. In the USA, retail gasoline prices have dropped across nearly all states as the holiday season approaches, reducing consumer expenditure. European refineries, having switched to alternative feedstock instead of Russian oil, are ensuring stable supply chains. Global refineries (refining plants) are maintaining high levels of processing, taking advantage of cheaper oil, although the growth in fuel demand remains moderate. Refining margins are generally stable; there is no observed shortage of gasoline or diesel in the global market.
Gas Market and LNG
A paradoxical situation is developing in the gas market: despite an early and cold winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline. Prices at the Dutch TTF hub have fallen to below €30 per MWh – this is the lowest level since spring 2024, nearly 90% below the peak crisis levels of 2022 and approximately 45% lower than prices at the beginning of this year. The main reason is the unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, which is compensating for the decline in pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas storage in the European Union is currently filled to about 75%, which, although lower than the multi-year averages for December, alongside record LNG imports, provides sufficient resources for stable prices even in colder conditions.
- Europe: High volumes of LNG imports have kept gas prices low, despite rising consumption during the heating season. In 2025, over half of European LNG imports were supplied by providers from the USA, redirecting cargoes from Asian markets. This has led to a notable reduction in the spread between European prices and the lower American gas prices.
- USA: In North America, gas futures have risen against forecasts of anomalous cold weather. At the Henry Hub, prices surged above $5 per MMBtu due to the predicted arrival of polar vortex conditions, which resulted in a spike in heating demand. However, domestic gas production in the USA remains high, which is restraining price growth as weather conditions normalise.
- Asia: The Asian gas market is relatively balanced as the year closes. Demand in key countries (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, prompting some additional LNG cargoes to be redirected to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, have remained stable and avoided sharp spikes, as competition for cargoes between Europe and Asia has eased compared to the situation in 2022.
Consequently, the global gas market is entering winter much more confidently than a year ago. Existing stocks and flexible import supplies are sufficient to meet demands even during severe cold spells. The versatility of the LNG market plays a key role: tankers are quickly redirected to Europe, smoothing regional imbalances. If the temperature patterns this winter remain within historical averages, the pricing situation for gas consumers will remain favourable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal sector reached historical consumption peaks in 2025; however, prospects indicate a slowdown on the horizon. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption rose approximately 0.5% to a record 8.85 billion tonnes. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation worldwide, but its share is expected to begin gradually decreasing: analysts forecast that coal demand will plateau with a subsequent decline by 2030 due to the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. Regional dynamics, however, vary:
- India: Coal consumption has decreased (for the third time in the last 50 years) due to an exceptionally strong monsoon season. Abundant rainfall has increased hydropower output and reduced demand for electricity from coal-fired power plants.
- USA: In contrast, coal usage has increased. This is due to high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the industry. The new presidential administration in Washington has suspended the decommissioning of several coal power plants, resulting in a temporary uptick in demand for coal for generation.
- China: The world's largest coal consumer has maintained its usage at last year's levels. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined; however, there is an expectation of a gradual decrease in consumption by the end of the decade as massive wind, solar, and nuclear capacities are introduced.
Thus, 2025 will likely be a peak year for the coal industry. Going forward, increased competition from gas (where feasible) and especially from renewable sources will displace coal from the energy balance of many countries. Nonetheless, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing Asian economies, where the growth in energy consumption still outpaces the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues to transform under the influence of climate agendas and fuel price fluctuations. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries have introduced record capacities for solar and wind power plants. For instance, China has been actively expanding its solar generation, while new offshore wind farms and large photovoltaic projects have been commissioned in Europe and the USA, spurred by government support and private investments. As a result, global investments in green energy remain high, closely approaching fossil fuel investment levels.
However, the rapid growth of RES raises the challenge of ensuring the resilience of energy systems. In Europe, this winter has highlighted the factor of variable weather: periods of low wind and short daylight hours have increased the burden on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries were compelled to temporarily ramp up gas and coal generation due to an anticyclone that led to a decline in wind farm output, resulting in price increases for electricity in certain regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growth in RES capacity and a significant share of gas in the balance, serious supply issues have been avoided. Governments and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and network modernisation to smooth peak loads and integrate renewable energy.
Countries' climate commitments continue to set the development direction for the sector. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls were made to accelerate the energy transition. Several states agreed to triple the deployment of RES capacities by 2030 and achieve a considerable increase in energy efficiency. Concurrently, there is a resurgence of interest in nuclear energy in many regions: new nuclear power plants are under construction and the operational lifespan of existing plants is being extended to provide baseload generation without emissions. Overall, the electricity sector is advancing towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period requires a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental goals.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on global energy markets. At the forefront is the conflict in Eastern Europe and the associated restrictions:
- Peace Negotiations: In December, a significant breakthrough in peace dialogue regarding Ukraine became apparent, marking the most substantial progress since the conflict began. The USA has expressed readiness to provide security guarantees to Kyiv modelled after NATO provisions, with European mediators noting a constructive shift in negotiations. Hopes for achieving a ceasefire have risen, though Moscow has stated that it will not agree to territorial concessions. Growing optimism regarding a potential end to hostilities has given rise to discussions about the prospects of a partial lifting of oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the future.
- Sanction Pressure: Concurrently, Western countries are signalling a willingness to intensify pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector, which could be implemented in the event of a breakdown in negotiations. Earlier in the autumn, both the USA and the UK expanded sanctions against oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating their ability to attract investments and access technologies.
- Infrastructure Risks: Combat actions and sabotage continue to threaten energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian side has intensified drone strikes against oil infrastructure deep within Russian territory in recent weeks. Specifically, incidents of fires at refineries in the Krasnodar region and on the Volga have been reported due to drone strikes. While these incidents only locally marginally reduce the overall fuel supply level, they underscore the ongoing military risks for the sector until a durable peace is reached.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics is also impacting the oil market. Following the partial relaxation of the sanction regime against Venezuela in the autumn, the USA has tightened oversight on compliance with the terms of the deal. In December, an incident occurred involving the detention of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil due to suspected violations of the license. The state-owned company PDVSA has faced demands from buyers for increased discounts and a review of supply terms. This has complicated Venezuela's attempts to boost exports despite a recent permission for the country to temporarily increase production in exchange for political concessions from Caracas.
Overall, the sanction standoff between Russia and the West, alongside other international disagreements, continues to introduce uncertainty into the global energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring political news, as any changes – from breakthroughs in peace negotiations to the introduction of new restrictions – can significantly impact the prices of oil, gas, and other energy resources.
Corporate News and Projects
Major energy companies and infrastructure projects worldwide are closing the year with several important events and decisions:
- Aramco Enters the Indian Market: Saudi Aramco has resumed its plans to invest in a large refinery complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish a foothold in the rapidly growing Indian market and secure long-term channels for selling its oil.
- New Project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another large offshore field in Guyana, targeting a production start by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, strengthening the country's position as one of the most dynamically developing new oil producers.
- Record Wind Farm in the North Sea: The world’s largest offshore wind power station, Dogger Bank, has been completed in the North Sea, boasting a total capacity of 3.6 GW. The project was realised by a consortium of European energy companies and is capable of supplying electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone marks an achievement in the development of renewable energy and showcases the potential of large-scale green projects.
In summary, players in the oil, gas, and energy sector are adapting to the new market realities. Some are reassessing their asset portfolios considering geopolitical risks and changing market conditions (such as Aramco, exploring new sales markets), while others are taking advantage of favourable situations to increase production and implement projects (like ExxonMobil and its partners in Guyana). Concurrently, investments continue in both traditional oil and gas sectors and the energy transition – from wind energy to hydrogen. The industry is faced with the necessity of balancing short-term profitability with long-term decarbonisation goals, and this balance is defining the key strategic decisions of companies on the brink of 2026.
