Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, 7 February 2026: Oil, Gas, Energy, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, Electricity, and Key Events in the Global Energy Market.
As February 2026 begins, the global oil and gas market is shaped by opposing factors: an oversupply and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Western countries continue to tighten sanctions on energy exports from Russia (with the price cap on Russian oil reduced to $44.1 per barrel as of February), while key importers such as India are reassessing their procurement strategies under external diplomatic pressure. Meanwhile, oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent around $68 per barrel) thanks to expectations of a supply surplus. The European gas market is experiencing a mild winter without panic, despite a rapid decrease in gas storage levels, aided by mild weather and high LNG supplies. Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum, with renewable energy capacity hitting records, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—continue to play a key role in global energy supply. This overview presents current trends in the fuel and energy sector (oil, gas, oil products, electricity, coal, renewables) as of 7 February 2026.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Amid Sanctions
At the beginning of February, oil prices stabilised after moderate growth: North Sea Brent is trading at around $68 per barrel, while American WTI hovers around $64. The market is balancing between oversupply and geopolitical risks. A significant oil surplus is expected in the first quarter of 2026—according to the IEA, global supply may exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day. Simultaneously, threats of supply disruptions (Iran, Venezuela, among others) prevent prices from dropping significantly below current levels. Several factors influence the situation:
- Increasing Production and Slowing Demand. The OPEC+ alliance, after a prolonged period of restrictions, increased production in 2025 but has now suspended further increases to quotas at the start of 2026. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply is on the rise: the USA, Brazil, and other countries have reached record oil output. Concurrently, global demand growth for oil is slowing due to moderate conditions in the global economy: China's economy is expected to grow about 5% in 2026 (down from over 8% in 2021–2022), and high interest rates in the USA and Europe limit consumption. The IEA forecasts an increase in global oil demand in 2026 of only about 0.9 million barrels per day (compared to a growth of over 2 million barrels in 2023).
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. Early February saw the implementation of further sanctions: the EU and the UK lowered the price ceiling on Russian oil to $44.1 per barrel (down from $47.6), seeking to curtail Moscow's oil revenues. At the same time, the threat of supply disruptions from problematic regions remains. The USA has adopted a tougher stance toward Iran, not ruling out the use of force against its oil infrastructure; the political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily reduced exports; drone attacks and incidents in Kazakhstan have decreased output at certain fields. All these factors raise the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting the pressure from oversupply.
- Restructuring of Export Flows. Major Asian consumers are adjusting their oil import structure. India, which recently imported over 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil, has begun to reduce these supplies under Western pressure: in January 2026, volumes fell to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, the lowest in nearly a year. While New Delhi does not currently plan a complete abandonment of Russian hydrocarbons, the reduction in purchases forces Moscow to redirect its exports to other markets, primarily China. Chinese refineries are increasing their purchases of Russian crude at discounted prices, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Declining Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, although underground gas storage (UGS) levels are rapidly depleting as winter progresses. Stocks in Europe have fallen to approximately 44% of total capacity by the end of January, the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (about 58%). Nevertheless, the mild winter and stable LNG supplies allow for the avoidance of shortages and price shocks. Gas futures (TTF index) remain at moderate levels, reflecting market confidence in resource availability. The situation is defined by several key trends:
- Depletion of Stocks and Need for Refilling. Winter consumption leads to a rapid decrease in gas volumes in storage. If current trends continue, UGS levels in the EU could be filled to only about 30% by the end of March. To raise stock levels back to a comfortable 80–90% before next winter, European importers will need to pump approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas in the inter-season period. Achieving this goal requires maximising purchases during the warmer months, especially as a significant portion of imported gas is consumed immediately. The market faces a challenging task in replenishing underground reserves by autumn—this will be a significant test for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Supplies. The decrease in pipeline supply is offset by unprecedented LNG imports. In 2025, European countries purchased approximately 175 billion cubic metres of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are projected to reach 185 billion cubic meters. The increase in purchases is facilitated by the expansion of global supply: the commissioning of new LNG plants in the USA, Canada, Qatar, and other countries is expected to lead to approximately a 7% growth in global LNG production this year (the highest growth rate since 2019). The European market relies on high LNG purchases to navigate the heating season, particularly since the EU has decided to completely end imports of Russian gas by 2027, necessitating the replacement of approximately 33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Eastern Reorientation of Exports. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies to the East. Volumes through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China have reached record levels (close to its design capacity of approximately 22 billion cubic metres per year), while Moscow is accelerating negotiations for the construction of a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and Arctic regions. However, even with the eastern direction, total gas exports from Russia have significantly declined compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term restructuring of gas flows continues, establishing a new global gas supply map.
Oil Products and Refining Market: Capacity Growth and Stability Measures
The global oil products market (petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, etc.) demonstrates relative stability at the beginning of 2026 following a period of turmoil. Demand for motor fuels remains high due to the recovery of transport activity and industrial production. At the same time, the increase in global refining capacities eases the satisfaction of this demand. Following shortages and price peaks in recent years, the situation with petrol and diesel supply is gradually normalising, although disruptions are still observed in certain regions. Key sector characteristics include:
- New Refineries and Increased Refining. Major oil refining capacities are being commissioned in Asia and the Middle East, increasing total fuel output. For example, the modernisation of Bahrain's Bapco refinery expanded its capacity from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day, with new facilities launched in China and India. According to OPEC, global refining capacity is expected to grow by approximately 0.6 million barrels per day annually from 2025 to 2027. The increase in oil product supply has already led to a decline in refining margins compared to record levels in 2022–2023, easing price pressures for consumers.
- Price Stabilisation and Local Disruptions. Global petrol and diesel prices have retreated from their peaks, reflecting the cheaper cost of oil and increased supply. However, local surges are still possible: for instance, winter frosts in North America temporarily raised demand for heating fuels, and some European countries continue to see a premium on diesel due to the restructuring of logistic chains following the embargo on Russian supplies. Governments in several cases are employing smoothing mechanisms—from lowering fuel excise taxes to releasing parts of strategic reserves—to keep prices under control during sudden demand spikes.
- State Regulation for Market Stability. In some countries, authorities continue to intervene in the fuel market to stabilise supply. In Russia, following the 2025 fuel crisis, export restrictions on oil products remain in place: the ban on the export of petrol and diesel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, and oil companies are permitted only limited supplies abroad. At the same time, the price damping mechanism has been extended, under which the state compensates refiners for the difference between domestic and export fuel prices, incentivising supplies to the domestic market. These measures have alleviated petrol shortages at gas stations, although they emphasise the importance of manual market management. In other regions (for instance, in some Asian countries), authorities are also resorting to temporary support measures—tax reductions, transportation subsidies, or increased import supplies—to mitigate the effects of sharp fluctuations in fuel prices.
Electricity Sector: Rising Demand and Network Modernisation
The global electricity sector is experiencing accelerated demand growth, accompanied by significant infrastructure challenges. According to the IEA, global electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 3.5% per year over the next five years, significantly outpacing overall energy consumption growth. Key drivers include the electrification of transport (increased electric vehicle fleet), digitalisation of the economy (expansion of data centres, development of AI), and climate factors (extensive use of air conditioning in hot climates). Following a period of stagnation in the 2010s, electricity demand is increasing again even in developed countries. Meanwhile, energy systems require massive investments to maintain reliability and connect new capacities. Key trends in the electricity sector are as follows:
- Modernisation and Expansion of Networks. The rising loads on networks necessitate the modernisation and construction of new electricity transmission lines. Many countries are launching programs to renew network infrastructure, accelerate the construction of power lines, and digitise energy flow management. According to the IEA, over 2500 GW of new generation capacity and major consumers worldwide are awaiting connection to electricity networks—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Overcoming these "bottlenecks" is critically important: annual investments in electricity networks are projected to rise by 50% by 2030; otherwise, the development of generation will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Supply Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are adopting new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply under record loads. Energy storage systems are rapidly developing—industrial battery farms of growing capacity are being built in California and Texas (USA), as well as in Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. These batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate intermittent generation from renewables. Concurrently, network protection is being enhanced: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and updating equipment, considering the risks to reliability posed by extreme weather, infrastructure wear, and cyberattack threats. Governments and electricity-generating companies worldwide are directing significant funds towards increasing the flexibility and resilience of energy systems to avoid blackouts amid the growing dependence of economies on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. The year 2025 marked a record high for the commissioning of renewable energy source (RES) capacities—primarily solar and wind farms. According to preliminary data from the IEA, in 2025, the share of RES in the global electricity generation total equalled that of coal for the first time (around 30%), while nuclear generation also reached a record level. In 2026, clean energy is expected to continue increasing production at leading rates. Global investments in the energy transition are hitting new highs: according to BNEF, in 2025, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects (+8% compared to 2024). Governments of leading economies are strengthening support for green technologies, viewing them as a driver of sustainable growth. The EU has introduced stricter climate targets that require an accelerated introduction of zero-carbon capacities and a reform of the emissions market, while the USA continues to implement stimulus packages for renewable energy and electric vehicles. However, the rapid development of the sector is accompanied by certain challenges:
- Material Shortages and Rising Project Costs. The booming demand for RES equipment has driven up prices for critically important components. In 2024–2025, record prices for polysilicon (a key material for solar panels) were recorded, alongside noticeable increases in the costs of copper, lithium, and rare earth metals, which are essential for turbines and batteries. Increased production costs and supply chain disruptions occasionally slowed the implementation of new RES projects and reduced producer margins. However, by the second half of 2025, price stabilisation for many materials was observed due to increased production and measures taken to address bottlenecks.
- Integration of RES into Energy Systems. The rising share of solar and wind power plants introduces new requirements for energy systems. The variable nature of RES generation necessitates the development of backup capacities and storage systems for balancing—from fast-reserve gas turbines to industrial batteries and pumped-storage stations. Electricity network infrastructure is also being modernised to transport energy from remote locations where RES are situated to consumers. Accelerating the development of these areas should help contain CO2 emissions: the IEA projects that even with rising electricity consumption, global emissions from the electricity sector could remain at the levels of the mid-2020s as long as low-carbon capacities are commissioned on time and in sufficient volume.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amid a Transition Away
Global coal consumption remains at historically high levels despite efforts to decarbonise the economy. According to the IEA, in 2025, global coal demand increased by 0.5% to approximately 8.85 billion tonnes—a new record. In 2026, coal consumption is expected to remain close to this level with a slight decline (effectively a "plateau"). The rise in coal usage is concentrated in the developing economies of Asia, while Western countries are systematically reducing their reliance on this fuel. The coal sector is witnessing the following trends:
- Asian Demand Sustains Production. Countries in South and East Asia (China, India, Vietnam, etc.) continue to actively use coal for electricity generation and in industry. For many developing economies, coal remains an accessible and crucial resource, providing baseload generation. During peak consumption periods (for example, during an extremely hot summer or harsh winter), coal-fired power stations help cover peak loads when renewables and gas generation cannot meet demand. Sustained demand in Asia supports high production volumes in major coal-producing countries, temporarily alleviating pressure on the sector.
- Coal Phase-Out in Developed Countries. Concurrently, developed economies are accelerating their transition away from coal generation. In the EU, USA, UK, and other countries, old coal-fired power plants are being decommissioned, and restrictions are placed on the launch of new projects. Stated state goals include the complete phase-out of coal from electricity generation within the next few decades (with the EU and UK targeting the 2030s). International climate initiatives also intensify pressure: financial institutions are withdrawing from financing coal projects, and countries commit to gradually phasing out coal capacities in UN negotiations. These trends limit long-term investments in the coal sector and complicate corporate development plans.
- Ambiguous Prospects for Business. For coal mining companies, the current situation is two-edged. On one hand, high demand (mainly in Asia) ensures record revenues and short-term investment opportunities for modernisation. On the other hand, strategic prospects are worsening: new projects are fraught with the risk that in 10–15 years, coal will lose a significant portion of the market. The stringent environmental agenda amplifies uncertainty—companies are compelled to incorporate gradual diversification into their strategies. Many industry players are reinvesting current superprofits into adjacent sectors (metallurgical raw materials, chemical production, RES) to prepare for a diminished role for coal in future energy balances.
Outlook and Prospects
Overall, the global fuel and energy complex enters 2026 with conflicting signals. The oil market balances between the anticipated supply surplus and ongoing geopolitical threats, which will likely keep prices within a relatively narrow range without sharp spikes (assuming no unforeseen events arise). The gas sector faces the challenge of replenishing stocks in Europe after winter: historically low UGS levels mean that the primary intrigue of the year is whether importers can attract sufficient volumes of LNG and gas from alternative sources to restore stocks by autumn.
Energy sector companies (oil and gas as well as electricity) and investors continue to adapt to the new reality. Some oil and gas corporations are ramping up production and modernising refineries to benefit from current demand for traditional energy sources, while others are more actively investing in renewable energy, networks, and energy storage, focussing on long-term decarbonisation trends. Investment in "green" energy is already comparable to investments in the fossil fuel sector; however, meeting rising global demand can still only be achieved while maintaining a significant share of oil and gas. For investors and energy market participants, the primary challenge is balancing strategies to leverage current opportunities in the oil and gas market while simultaneously not missing out on the advantages of the energy transition. In the coming months, industry attention will be drawn to OPEC+ decisions and regulators, successes in ramping up RES and building infrastructure, as well as macroeconomic factors (economic growth rates, inflation, and central bank policies) which influence energy demand dynamics. The global energy market remains dynamic and complex, requiring companies and investors to be flexible and maintain a long-term vision amidst constant changes.
