Global Energy Market News as of 10th February 2026: Dynamics of Oil and Gas Prices, OPEC+ Decisions, LNG Market, Oil Products and Refineries, Electricity, Renewable Energy Sources, and Coal. Summary and Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
The global energy sector at the beginning of 2026 is demonstrating relative stability, despite conflicting factors. Oil prices are holding at moderate levels, and the market is balancing between the anticipated surplus in supply and lingering geopolitical risks. Europe is experiencing volatility in the gas market amid low inventories and weather-related issues, while the energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy sources (RES) are breaking records in implementation, and coal has peaked in demand. Below are the key news and trends in the oil and gas sector and energy as of today.
Global Oil Market: Surplus and Price Stability
The oil market entered 2026 showing signs of oversupply. According to the IEA, a significant oil surplus is expected in the first quarter – up to 4 million barrels per day (approximately 4% of global demand). This is attributed to the fact that overall oil production is growing faster than demand: OPEC+ countries increased supplies in 2025, along with heightened exports from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and other producers. As a result, global inventories may begin to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Nevertheless, oil prices remain relatively stable for now. Since the beginning of the year, Brent prices have risen by about 5-6%, partly due to geopolitical concerns. Brent is trading in the range of $60–65 per barrel, while WTI is around $55–60 per barrel, close to the levels at the end of 2025. Several risk factors are preventing a decline: in early January, the US detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, calling on oil companies to invest in the country’s production. This temporarily disrupted supplies of Venezuelan oil. Additionally, Washington hinted at the possibility of strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, and production in Kazakhstan decreased due to technical issues and drone attacks on fields. These events contribute to a geopolitical premium in oil prices and sustain investor interest.
In order to maintain balance, OPEC+ is following a cautious strategy. The cartel and its allies, including Russia, after a series of production increases, decided to pause: they have agreed to maintain quotas without increases for at least until the end of March 2026. Major exporters are keen to prevent market oversaturation: their assessment suggests that the fundamental indicators of the market are “healthy”, commercial oil stocks remain relatively low, and the goal is to maintain price stability. If necessary, OPEC+ reserves the right to adjust production quickly – either increasing it (returning previously cut volumes of 1.65 million barrels per day) or new cuts if market conditions require it. Meanwhile, demand for oil continues to grow moderately: the forecast for global demand in 2026 has been upgraded to around 0.9–1.0 million barrels per day increase, driven by economic normalization and lower prices compared to a year ago. Overall, the oil market enters the year with a fragile equilibrium: the anticipated surplus is mitigated by OPEC+ efforts and the threat of supply disruptions, keeping oil within a relatively narrow price corridor.
Natural Gas Market: Low Stocks and High Volatility
The global gas market at the beginning of 2026 is experiencing significant fluctuations, especially in Europe. After a calm autumn, when prices remained in a narrow range (€28–30 per MWh at the TTF hub), volatility returned in January. In the first weeks of the new year, gas prices in the EU surged sharply – peaking on January 16 when prices exceeded €37 per MWh. This was caused by a combination of factors: forecasts of colder weather and the approach of severe frost at the end of January increased demand, while gas inventory levels were significantly below normal. By mid-January, European underground gas storage facilities had depleted to ~50% of capacity (compared to ~62% a year earlier and an average of 67% over the past five years for the same date). This is the lowest filling level in several years (after the crisis winter of 2021/22), and market participants realised that without active imports, Europe faced substantial depletion of reserves.
Furthermore, gas prices were affected by disruptions in LNG supplies from the US at the beginning of the year, caused by technical and weather factors, as well as geopolitical risks – increasing tensions around Iran. Concurrently, demand for LNG in Asia rose due to cold weather, intensifying competition for spot fuel cargoes. Taken together, these factors prompted traders to close short positions, driving prices up. However, by the end of January, the situation stabilised somewhat: after the passing of the first cold spells, prices retreated to around €35 per MWh. Analysts note that volatility has again strengthened in the EU gas market, although panic peaks, as seen in 2022, have not yet been observed.
- Low Stocks: As of the end of January, EU storages are filled to only about 45% (the lowest level for this time of year since 2022). If withdrawals continue at the current pace, stocks could fall to 30% or lower by the end of winter. This necessitates the injection of about 60 billion cubic meters of gas over the summer to achieve a filling level of 90% by November 1 (the new EU energy security goal).
- LNG Imports: The primary resource for replenishing stocks will be imported LNG supplies. Over the past year, Europe increased LNG purchases by ~30%, reaching a record ~175 billion cubic meters. In 2026, this figure is expected to continue rising: the IEA anticipates global LNG production to grow by ~7%, reaching new historical highs. New export terminals in North America (US, Canada, Mexico) are coming online, and by 2025-2030 it is planned to introduce a total of up to 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity (about +50% of the current market size). This will help partially offset the loss of Russian volumes.
- Abandonment of Russian Gas: The EU officially intends to completely halt imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2027. Already, the share of Russia in European imports has decreased to ~13% (down from 40-45% before 2022). In 2025-2026, the embargo will be tightened, reducing gas supply in Europe by several billion cubic meters. This deficit is planned to be covered by LNG from the US, Qatar, Africa, and other sources. However, analysts warn that such reliance on transatlantic supplies carries risks: according to IEEFA, 57% of LNG supplies to the EU came from the US in 2025, and the share could rise to 75-80% by 2030, conflicting with diversification goals.
- Price Anomalies: Interestingly, the futures price structure for gas in Europe is currently exhibiting the reverse situation – summer contracts for 2026 are trading at higher prices than winter contracts for 2026/27. This backwardation contradicts usual logic (where winter gas should be more expensive than summer gas) and could impede storage operators from economically justifying injection. Possible explanations include market expectations of stable year-round LNG supplies or reliance on government intervention (subsidies, mandates for storage filling). However, experts warn that if price signals do not normalise and reservoirs are not filled with sufficient volumes, Europe risks entering the next winter without the required buffer, which could lead to a new price spike.
Overall, the natural gas market remains resource-abundant but extremely sensitive to weather and politics. A substantial effort will be needed to replenish inventories over the summer, and much will depend on the dynamics of global LNG trade and coordination of measures at the EU level. Currently, the softness of prices (compared to the crisis-stricken year of 2022) reflects a certain calm among traders – but this may prove deceptive if winter extends or new supply disruptions occur.
Oil Products and Refining (REF)
The oil products segment at the beginning of the year is experiencing mixed trends. On one hand, global demand for oil products, particularly jet fuel and diesel, remains high due to economic recovery and transportation increases. On the other hand, supply is increasing due to rising refining in Asia and the Middle East, although it is affected by sanctions and incidents. In the early months of the year, global refineries typically begin a maintenance season: many refineries are halted for planned repairs. As a result, in Q1, overall refining is decreasing, temporarily reducing demand for oil and contributing to an increase in the crude surplus. The IEA notes that the upcoming mass servicing of refineries intensifies oil oversupply in the market – without additional production cuts, it is difficult to avoid stockpiling during this period.
Meanwhile, refining margins are generally holding up well. At the end of 2025, global refining capacity was operating at high rates: for instance, oil refining in China set a record, reaching ~14.8 million barrels per day (on average for 2025, +600,000 barrels to the level of 2024). This is due to the commissioning of new facilities and China's aim to increase oil product exports. South Korea also achieved a record diesel export in 2025 – Asian producers are filling the gap left by the redistribution of flows from Russia. Strong demand for diesel (particularly in the transport and industrial sectors) supports high prices for distillates and profits for refineries focused on diesel production. Meanwhile, the gasoline market is experiencing some weakening: excess capacity and a slowdown in traffic growth have led to gasoline margins in Asia and Europe dropping to their lowest levels in the past year. However, the situation may change with the upcoming summer driving season.
Russian Oil Products and Sanctions: It is worth noting the changed flows of Russian oil products on the global market under the influence of sanction pressure. At the end of 2025, the US imposed additional sanctions against the largest Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating trade in their refined products. According to industry sources, at the start of 2026, Russian fuel oil exports to Asia slowed down: increased compliance monitoring and concerns about secondary sanctions have led many buyers to avoid direct dealings. The volume of fuel oil supplies to Asian countries in January has decreased for the third consecutive month and is approximately half of what it was a year ago (about 1.2 million tonnes compared to 2.5 million tonnes in January 2025). Some shipments are being redirected to storage and floating storages in anticipation of resale, while some tankers are taking indirect routes around Africa, indicating not the final destination. Traders note that the scheme for selling Russian products has become more complicated – often multistage chains are employed with transships in neutral waters to disguise the fuel's origin.
In addition to sanctions, military methods have also been employed to reduce exports of products from Russia: Ukrainian drone strikes on border oil refineries in Russia in autumn 2025 damaged several installations, reducing output. As a result, the supply of Russian fuel oil and other heavy oil products in the Asian market at the beginning of 2026 has decreased somewhat, which has even supported regional prices for these types of fuel. Nonetheless, key markets for Moscow remain Southeast Asian countries, China, and the Middle East – the bulk of supplies continue to flow there while Western sanctions prevent a return to traditional markets.
Overall, the global oil product market is gradually readjusting to a new geography. The majority of growth in refining capacity in the coming years will come in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa – where up to 80-90% of new refineries are being brought online. This intensifies competition for fuel markets. In Europe, conversely, a number of refineries have reduced operational performance due to high energy prices and the cessation of supplies of cheap Russian feedstock. The EU fully banned imports of Russian oil products back in early 2023, and over the past two years, European refineries have reoriented towards other grades of oil, albeit at the cost of rising expenses. By the end of winter 2026, prices for major oil products are relatively stable: diesel is trading steadily high due to limited global stocks, while gasoline and fuel oil prices are demonstrating moderate dynamics. The upcoming resumption of refinery operations in spring may increase product supply, but much will depend on seasonal demand and the global economy.
Coal: Record Demand and Signs of Decline
Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, coal still retains a significant role in the global energy landscape. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand reached a historic high in 2025 – around 8.85 billion tonnes per year (equivalent to ~+0.5% compared to 2024). Thus, coal consumption has set a record for the second consecutive year, largely due to economic recovery post-pandemic and increased electricity demand. However, experts note that this peak may be a “plateau”: global coal consumption is expected to start slowly but steadily declining by the end of the decade.
Trends are uneven across regions. In China – the largest consumer of coal (accounting for more than half of global demand) – coal use in 2025 was close to stabilised high levels, with only a slight decline forecast by 2030 due to large-scale deployment of RES and nuclear power plants. India, the second-largest market, unexpectedly reduced coal consumption in 2025 – only the third time in 50 years. This was encouraged by extremely strong monsoons: heavy rainfall filled reservoirs and records of hydroelectric generation reduced the need for coal generation, while a slowdown in industrial growth also played a role. Meanwhile, the US increased coal consumption in 2025 – attributed to high natural gas prices, making coal generation economically viable in certain regions. Additionally, political factors played a role: President Donald Trump, who took office in early 2025, signed an order to support coal-fired power plants, prevent their closure, and encourage production. This measure temporarily revitalised the US coal industry, although long-term competitiveness for coal is declining there.
In Europe, however, coal use continued to decline in 2025 as EU countries strive to meet climate goals and replace coal with gas and RES. The percentage of coal in electricity generation in the EU fell below 15%, and this trend accelerated following 2022, when Europe drastically reduced imports of Russian coal (from 50% to 0% of consumption). Overall, the IEA believes that global coal consumption will plateau in the coming years and then decline: renewable sources, natural gas, and nuclear energy are gradually displacing coal from the energy sector, especially in electricity generation. Already in 2025, global generation from RES equalled coal generation for the first time. Nonetheless, the transition will be gradual. Experts warn that should electricity demand grow more rapidly or if there are delays in deploying clean capacity, coal demand may temporarily exceed forecasts. Much depends on China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined: any fluctuations in the Chinese economy instantly reflect on the coal market.
For now, the coal mining industry is feeling relatively good: prices remain high due to demand in Asia. However, mining companies and energy producers are already preparing for an inevitable transformation. Investments are increasingly directed not towards new mines, but towards retrofitting existing facilities, carbon capture technology, and social programs for coal-dependent regions. In the long term, abandoning coal is viewed as a key step to achieving climate goals to limit global warming.
Electricity and Renewables: A Green Leap
The electricity sector is entering a new era of accelerated development of renewable technologies. According to the IEA's "Electricity 2026" report, significant shifts in generation structure are expected in this decade. By 2025, global electricity generation from RES (primarily solar and wind power plants) equalled generation from coal plants, and starting in 2026, clean sources are beginning to outpace coal. By 2030, the combined share of renewable energy and nuclear power in global electricity generation is anticipated to reach 50%. This rapid growth is primarily driven by solar energy: new photovoltaic power stations are being commissioned annually, adding over 600 TWh of generation each year. With wind included, the total increase in renewable generation by 2030 will amount to around 1000 TWh a year (+8% year on year compared to current volumes).
Concurrently, global electricity demand is also soaring – averaging 3-4% annually from 2024 to 2030, which is 2.5 times faster than overall energy consumption growth. The reasons include the industrialisation of developing countries, mass adoption of electric transport (electric vehicles, electric public transport), and digitalisation (data processing centres, increased use of air conditioning and electronics). Consequently, even with the vigorous expansion of RES, fully displacing fossil generation will not happen overnight: to balance energy systems, electricity generation from gas plants is also increasing. Natural gas is seen as a “transitional fuel,” and gas generation will grow until 2030, albeit at a slower pace than renewables.
Infrastructure and Reliability: Such a high growth trajectory presents challenges for infrastructure. Existing electricity grids and energy storage systems require significant investments to integrate intermittent sources like solar and wind. The IEA emphasizes that to meet rising demand and ensure reliability, annual investments in electricity networks must increase by 50% by 2030 (compared to levels from the previous decade). Breakthroughs in storage technology and load management are also necessary to smooth out peaks and fluctuations in RES generation.
Europe vs the US: Climate Policy and Wind: The global energy transition is proceeding unevenly: different countries are exhibiting political discrepancies. In the European Union, the green agenda remains a priority – even in the wake of the energy crisis of 2022, the EU is accelerating the deployment of RES. By the end of 2025 in the EU, generated electricity from wind and solar stations exceeded generation from fossil fuels for the first time. European governments are aiming to boost capacity further: nine countries (including Germany, France, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, etc.) have agreed on major joint projects in the North Sea to achieve 300 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2050. By 2030, at least 100 GW of offshore wind energy is planned through cross-border projects. This RES expansion is designed to deliver stable, secure, and affordable energy supply, create jobs, and reduce dependency on imported fuel.
Challenges persist: rising rates and cost increases in materials in 2024-2025 led to some wind farm construction tenders (e.g., in Germany and the UK) failing to attract bids – investors demanded better project economics. European leaders acknowledge the issue and are ready to enhance support: additional guarantees, targeted subsidies, and mechanisms for contracts for difference are being discussed to make wind farm construction more attractive for business.
In contrast, the US has witnessed a partial retreat of government support for clean energy. The new administration, which came into power in 2025, is sceptical about a number of green initiatives. President Trump publicly criticized the European shift towards RES, calling wind turbines “unprofitable” and arguing (without evidence) that “the more wind turbines, the more the country loses money.” Accordingly, US authorities have taken a path to support traditional sources: alongside coal support, offshore wind energy projects have also come under scrutiny. In December 2025, the US Interior Department unexpectedly suspended several large offshore wind farm projects, citing new data on potential threats to national security (e.g., interference with military radars). This decision notably affected the nearly completed Vineyard Wind project off the coast of Massachusetts. Major energy companies investing in wind farms (Avangrid/Iberdrola, Orsted, etc.) challenged the moratorium in court. In January 2026, they achieved early victories: a federal judge blocked the administration’s order, allowing the resumption of Vineyard Wind construction (which is already 95% complete). Legal disputes are ongoing, and the industry hopes that projects will not lose much time. However, the uncertainty created by such actions may cool investor interest in US RES, while Europe appears determined to proceed.
Other RES Directions: Renewable energy is not just about wind and solar. In many countries, there is increased activity in building energy storage infrastructure (industrial batteries), developing hydropower, and geothermal plants. There is also a revival of interest in nuclear energy as a low-carbon source. For instance, private investors are supporting new projects for small modular reactors. In Italy, the startup Newcleo raised €75 million in February for the development of innovative compact reactors operating on recycled nuclear fuel. The company has raised €645 million since 2021 and plans to accelerate development: building a prototype reactor and entering the US market – one of the most dynamic markets for advanced nuclear technologies. Such initiatives indicate that the nuclear sector could play a crucial role in decarbonisation alongside RES.
As a result of efforts toward the energy transition, price effects on electricity are already evident in certain regions. For example, in Europe, wholesale electricity prices fell by the end of 2025 compared to autumn – attributed to seasonal declines in demand and high generation from renewables (windy and mild weather). However, reliability issues persist: Ukraine's energy infrastructure is in poor condition due to ongoing shelling, leading to electricity supply interruptions in winter. On a global scale, half of the new generation capacity introduced in the world is now attributed to solar and wind stations. This inspires confidence that while fossil fuels will continue to play a role in the balance for a long time, the energy transition is gaining irreversible momentum.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Hopes and Reality
Political factors continue to significantly influence the energy market situation. The sanction standoff between the West and major energy resource suppliers – Russia, Iran, and Venezuela – remains in place, although several market participants express hopes for a softening of this tension. Some positive signals are emerging: the capture and ousting of Nicolás Maduro opens the way for potential normalisation of the Venezuelan oil sector. Investors hope that with a change in political regime in Caracas, the US will gradually ease sanctions and allow significant volumes of Venezuelan oil to return to the market (the country's resources are among the largest in the world). In the long term, this could increase heavy oil supply and help stabilise prices for crude and oil products. However, in the short-term context, Maduro's resignation rather led to disruptions: Venezuelan exports dropped by approximately 0.5 million barrels per day in January, which is significant for Asian refineries that consume its oil.
The situation around Iran remains tense. Rumours about possible US or Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are stirring the market: Iran is a key oil producer within OPEC, and any military actions could disrupt export terminals or deter shipping companies. Although a direct conflict has been avoided so far, rhetoric has escalated, and traders are pricing in a certain premium in case of unforeseen circumstances in the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has entered its fourth year and continues to impact the energy sector. Europe has effectively stopped receiving energy resources from Russia, reshaping its logistics to adapt to alternatives, while Russia has redirected its oil and gas exports to Asia. However, the Russian sector is facing new challenges: as noted earlier, the expansion of US sanctions in late 2025 complicated operations even with friendly buyers in Asia. Many of them prefer to wait for sanctions to ease or demand larger discounts due to the risks involved. Furthermore, there has been an uptick in drone attacks on infrastructure – aside from strikes on refineries, attacks on oil depots and pipelines have been recorded. As a result, according to industry monitoring, oil production in Russia began to subtly decline in December and January. After successfully ramping up production volumes in 2025 (after the downturn in 2022-2023), a decline is now noted for the second consecutive month at the start of 2026. Analysts attribute this not only to the exhaustion of easy reallocation routes but also to challenges in the maintenance of fields under sanctions. Russian oil exports by sea remain consistently high in volume but now require increasingly longer routes and a large fleet of “shadow” tankers at risk of intensified scrutiny.
Thus, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant factor. Nevertheless, cautious optimism is present in the market: some experts believe that the sharpest phases of the energy confrontations have already passed. Importing countries have adapted to the new conditions, while exporters are exploring ways to circumvent restrictions. However, diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation have yet to yield tangible results. Investors continue to closely monitor news from Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing. Any signals regarding potential negotiations or easing of sanctions could noticeably influence market sentiments. Until then, politics will continue to inject a degree of volatility: whether it is new sanction packages, unexpected agreements, or escalation of conflicts, energy markets react instantly to such events with price fluctuations and raw material flow redistribution.
Ultimately, it can be said that hopes for easing of the sanctions standoff in 2026 remain exactly that – hopes; the main restrictions remain intact, and market participants are learning to operate in a condition of geopolitical fragmentation. At the same time, the moderate price stability for oil and gas achieved through OPEC+ efforts and market adaptation gives cause to hope that the sector will navigate this current period without upheaval, barring any new major crises.
Investments and Industry Corporate News
Investors are focused on the energy sector – both the high profitability of traditional oil and gas companies and substantial investments in energy transition projects. Below are notable events from the corporate sector and investments:
- Record Profits for Oil and Gas Companies: Major oil companies closed 2025 with high financial results. For instance, ExxonMobil’s net profit for 2025 was $28.8 billion. Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco consistently earns around $25–30 billion quarterly (with $28 billion in the third quarter of 2025 alone). These enormous revenues allowed companies to continue large share buyback and dividend programs, as well as invest in new production projects. Oil and gas giants are investing in field development – from shale plays in the Permian Basin in the US to deepwater projects off the coast of Brazil and gas in East Africa. At the same time, many are announcing investments in low-carbon directions (renewable energy, hydrogen, CO2 capture), although the proportion of such investments remains small compared to their core business.
- Deals and Projects in Renewable Energy: There is a continued influx of capital into “green” projects worldwide. Governments are entering into large agreements with investors: for instance, in January, Egypt signed contracts worth $1.8 billion for RES development. Plans include building a 1.7 GW solar power plant with a 4 GWh storage system in Upper Egypt (by Scatec) and establishing a battery manufacturing plant by Chinese firm Sungrow in the Suez Economic Zone. Egypt aims to raise the share of renewable generation to 42% by 2030, and international partners are helping to approach this ambitious target. Such projects indicate a high level of activity in developing markets.
- New Technologies and Startups: Innovative energy companies are also attracting funding. Beyond the aforementioned Italian nuclear startup Newcleo, projects in hydrogen and synthetic fuels are being developed. For instance, the Chilean-American company HIF Global is advancing the construction of a green hydrogen and electro-fuel (methanol) production plant in Brazil valued at $4 billion. Recently, leadership announced that it has optimised the project and significantly reduced capital costs – construction is broken into phases, each costing less than $1 billion. The project in the port of Açu (Brazil) aims to launch the first line by mid-2027, producing ~220,000 tonnes of “electromethanol” annually from hydrogen and captured CO2. Such initiatives are attracting interest from automakers and airlines looking for new fuel sources.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: Consolidation processes are ongoing in the resource sector. In 2025, two major deals in the oil industry reshaped the landscape: American ExxonMobil and Chevron announced acquisitions of shale companies Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess Corp, respectively, reinforcing their positions in the US. At the start of 2026, negotiations continued in adjacent sectors – for example, a megamerger between mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore (valued at ~$200+ billion) was explored, primarily, to consolidate coal assets, but parties ultimately withdrew from merger plans. Major players are seeking to increase scale and synergy, but antitrust risks and integration complexities could slow such megadeals.
- Investment Climate: Overall, investments in the energy sector remain at high levels. According to estimates from BloombergNEF, total global investments in the energy transition (RES, electricity networks, storage, electric vehicles, etc.) in 2025 equalled those in fossil energy for the first time. Banks and funds are redirecting strategies towards sustainable financing, although oil and gas will still receive substantial capital for the foreseeable future. A key question for investors now is to find a balance between traditional oil and gas returns and promising “green” directions. Many are opting for a dual strategy: capturing profits from high oil/gas prices while simultaneously investing in future renewable markets to avoid missing a new growth wave.
Corporate news in the industry also includes the publication of financial reports for the previous year, personnel appointments, and technological breakthroughs. Riding on a wave of profits, some companies are announcing increases in dividends and share buybacks, pleasing shareholders. Simultaneously, oil and gas firms, under public pressure, are setting new emissions reduction targets and investing in climate initiatives, striving to improve their image and positioning in a changing world. Thus, the energy business is globally striving to demonstrate resilience and agility: achieving record profits today while laying the groundwork for success in a low-carbon economy tomorrow.
Expectations and Forecasts
As we approach the end of winter 2026, experts in the oil and gas sector are offering cautiously optimistic forecasts. The primary scenario for the upcoming months is to maintain relative stability in hydrocarbon prices. Authorities and market participants have learned lessons from the upheavals of the early 2020s, creating response mechanisms: from strategic reserves and OPEC+ agreements to energy efficiency programs. Price forecasts from relevant agencies indicate a potential slight decline in oil quotations in the second half of 2026 if the supply surplus unfolds as planned (the EIA expects Brent to gradually decline to $55 per barrel by year-end). However, any serious disruptions – such as escalation of conflict in the Middle East or hurricanes that disable LNG facilities – could temporarily inflate prices.
In the gas sector, much will depend on the course of the summer: a mild summer and high LNG output will ease the task of filling storage, which could keep European gas prices within an average range of €25–30 per MWh. However, competitive battles with Asia for new LNG volumes, as well as uncertainties regarding weather (e.g., risk of droughts affecting hydro generation or early cold snaps), add an element of uncertainty. Nonetheless, if stocks are close to target levels by autumn, Europe will enter the next winter more confidently than in previous years.
The active development of renewable energy will continue. It is likely that 2026 will be another record year for the commissioning of solar and wind capacities, especially in China, the US (despite political obstacles – thanks to initiatives from individual states), and the EU. The world may approach a point where every other new power station is RES. This will gradually change the structure of markets: demand for natural gas in electricity generation may grow more slowly, and demand for coal may decline faster than forecast if RES construction outpaces plans. Also, market focus will shift to the development of energy storage and hydrogen technologies – breakthroughs in these areas could accelerate the energy transition.
On the political front, market participants will be watching for potential negotiations and elections. In 2026, presidential elections are expected in several supplier countries, which may influence their energy policies. Any moves towards peaceful agreements or the easing of some sanctions could radically reshape trade flows – for example, the return of Iranian oil to the market or a surge in Venezuelan exports would alter balances. Conversely, increased sanctions or new conflicts (e.g., around Taiwan or in other regions) could introduce new supply risks for critical raw materials.
Overall, investors and analysts are inclined to think that 2026 will be characterised by adaptation and resilience. Energy markets are no longer as chaotic as they were during the height of the upheavals, and are demonstrating an ability to self-regulate. With prudent policies – from both governments and companies – the energy sector will continue to provide necessary fuel and energy to the global economy, gradually transforming from within under the influence of new technologies and evolving requirements.
