Current News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector as of 13 December 2025: Dynamics of Oil and Gas, Global Energy, Sanctions, Exports, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Trends in the World Fuel and Energy Complex. Analytical Review for Investors and Industry Participants.
Global Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Cautious Demand Limit Price Growth
World oil prices have stabilised at relatively low levels towards the end of the year: Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, WTI around $58. Recent signals regarding a potential easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy have given prices a slight boost; however, oil has decreased by approximately 15% since the beginning of 2025 amidst the threat of supply surplus against a backdrop of moderate demand growth. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) continue to adhere to a cautious production management strategy. At the December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ still maintains significant capacity in reserve (about 3 million barrels per day) to prevent price plummets. With Brent at ~ $60, cartel representatives underscore the priority of market stabilisation over the immediate desire to ramp up exports, considering the potential for demand to weaken in the future.
The dynamics of oil prices are influenced by several key factors:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing significantly slower compared to previous years. Demand growth for 2025 is estimated to be less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturns and energy-saving measures following a period of high prices, along with slowing industrial growth in China, are hindering consumption growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of 2025 as previous restrictions eased, yet the looming threat of market oversupply now restrains further production increase plans. The decision to maintain production cuts at the beginning of 2026 indicates the coalition's readiness to prevent a surplus: agreement participants will be able to adjust exports swiftly if prices decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against major oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) continue to limit supply and support prices. However, no new significant shocks have occurred; on the contrary, signs of dialogue are emerging (such as proposals from the US and Turkey for negotiations), somewhat reducing the "risk premium". As a result, the oil market remains within a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp jumps.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Supply Growth
The gas market situation at the end of 2025 is comparatively calm— in stark contrast to the frenzy of two years ago. The European Union is entering winter without signs of gas deficit: EU underground storage facilities are over 70% full, significantly above the average for December. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are holding around €30 per MWh, which is orders of magnitude below the peaks of 2022. The volumes of Russian pipeline gas lost are nearly fully compensated by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from alternative sources— terminals are actively receiving fuel from the USA, Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow thanks to the commissioning of new facilities. Major export terminals are coming online in the USA (for example, Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), strengthening America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar plans to increase LNG output to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027 as part of the North Field expansion, securing significant volumes for buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also commencing operations in other regions (Australia, Africa), intensifying competition in the LNG market.
Concurrently, demand for gas is growing at moderate rates. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased cargoes to the spot market due to temporary easing of domestic consumption. Overall, the expansion of supply and restrained demand keep global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, the weather factor remains critical: in the event of anomalous cold or disruptions in supplies this winter, short-term price spikes are possible. The base scenario indicates price stability due to comfortable fuel inventories.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Hardline Stance and Search for Compromise
The standoff between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although as year-end approaches, efforts for dialogue are surfacing. G7 and EU countries are maintaining a strong line on sanctions: an embargo on Russian oil is in effect, exports of oil products are restricted, a price cap has been implemented, and financial sanctions complicate trade of energy resources from the RF. Furthermore, discussions are underway about new restrictions in early 2026— allies intend to close remaining loopholes and are prepared to escalate pressure if the armed conflict continues.
Simultaneously, the European Union is taking steps towards complete independence from Russian fuel. On 10 December, EU ambassadors approved a plan to legally abandon energy resources from the RF by the end of 2027— ceasing purchases of natural gas (including LNG), oil, and oil products. In Brussels, this move is termed the beginning of a new era aimed at liberating European energy from dependence on Russian fuel forever. The rupture with the RF is being enshrined at the legislative level and stimulates the development of alternatives—from ramping up LNG imports to accelerating the implementation of renewable energy. Moscow has criticised the EU strategy, stating that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will lead to increased costs for Europe. Nevertheless, Brussels demonstrates resolve to pay this price for geopolitical goals; several countries (such as Hungary) have already pledged to contest the ban on Russian gas legally, but the pan-European stance remains unwavering.
According to media reports, the USA has proposed a plan to allies for a gradual reintegration of the RF into the world economy after a peaceful resolution— including the lifting of sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy resources to Europe. However, EU leadership views such initiatives with caution and excludes softening its position without real progress on the Ukrainian front. Against this backdrop, diplomatic signals for compromise are intensifying. US President Donald Trump stated on 12 December that he is "close to a deal" with Moscow and Kiev regarding conflict resolution— this is the first hint at a potential peace agreement that could possibly lift some energy sanctions. Turkey is also offering to mediate: Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed at a meeting in Ashgabat the readiness to host negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in any format. Although there are no specific agreements yet, such statements fuel hope for a future reduction in sanction pressure affecting the sector.
Russia Shifts Focus to Asian Markets
Faced with the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: back in late August, the first batch of liquefied gas was dispatched from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant to the PRC. In autumn, Russian LNG shipments to China grew at double-digit rates— Beijing is actively ramping up fuel purchases at a 30-40% discount, ignoring Western sanction pressures. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative outlet while offering China cheap raw materials for its economy.
India also remains one of the largest importers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the imposition of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries have notably increased purchases of Urals and other Russian oil grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership has assured partners of its readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and oil products. Cheap raw materials from the RF help meet India's rapidly growing demand while keeping domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is cautious about developing a critical dependency on a single supplier.
To consolidate the "Eastern pivot," Russia is developing its export infrastructure. Discussions are underway for a new gas pipeline "Power of Siberia-2" through Mongolia to China, which could significantly boost gas supplies to Asia. Concurrently, a tanker fleet is being established for oil deliveries to the markets of India, China, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Western shipping companies and insurers. These steps aim to make the reorientation of energy flows towards the East irreversible and diminish Russia's dependence on the European market. Simultaneously, Russia is strengthening ties with Middle Eastern partners. In a meeting in Ashgabat, President Vladimir Putin discussed gas and electricity cooperation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Work is also ongoing on strategic projects, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran and the development of the international transport corridor "North-South". Such cooperation enhances Russia's integration into Eastern and Southern energy chains, partially compensating for the rupture of ties with Europe.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine is also affecting energy export routes. At the beginning of December, a drone attack damaged the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk, through which Kazakhstan exports oil. While shipments of Kazakh oil have not been completely halted, Astana has decided to expedite diversification of routes. The government of Kazakhstan announced the redirection of some oil from the giant Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing supplies through Caspian ports to reduce reliance on the traditional route through the RF.
To strengthen energy security, Kazakhstan also plans to construct a new oil refining plant (ORP) with foreign investment participation. The expansion of domestic capacities for oil products production will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and enhance the resilience of the oil and gas sector against external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stagnating. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), it was not possible to adopt a stringent plan to phase out fossil fuels— several major oil and gas exporters blocked the EU's initiative for specific deadlines for gradually ceasing production. The final agreement is of a compromise nature, shifting the focus to financing climate adaptation and general emissions reduction goals without clear deadlines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the absence of new obligations, leading economies are practically ramping up investments in "green" energy. The year 2025 has become a record for new solar and wind power plants in many countries. China, India, the USA, the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources, storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, seeking to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, temporary setbacks from the decarbonisation course are being observed. High natural gas prices in 2025 have forced several states to increase coal combustion for electricity generation, enabling them to navigate the winter season successfully— global demand for coal remains high. Experts consider this measure a temporary response. As the share of RES increases and energy storage technologies advance, coal consumption and other fossil resources are expected to resume their decline. Thus, the long-term trend towards a transition to clean energy remains intact, even if there are certain delays along the way.
Forecasts: Beginning of 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high inventories and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average price of Brent may drop to the range of $55–60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply change the pricing landscape: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, introduction of new sanctions, as well as crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) may cause significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, the determining factor will remain the weather. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel stocks are sufficient, European gas prices will remain low. However, a few weeks of abnormal cold could quickly deplete underground gas storage and trigger a price spike. Additionally, there may be increased competition between Europe and Asia for LNG if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector will need to adapt to new conditions in 2026. Diversification of supplies, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovation (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will become the key to business resilience. The outgoing year 2025 has clearly demonstrated the close interrelation of economics, politics, and ecology in forming prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnectedness is likely to intensify: the global market will balance between excess supply and the risks of shortage, while the global community and regulators will strive to combine energy security tasks with climate goals.
