Global News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector on January 26, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal and Petroleum Products. Analysis of Key Events and Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
The relevant events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on January 26, 2026, are marked by a combination of new seasonal challenges and ongoing geopolitical tensions, amidst a relatively balanced situation in commodity markets. The cold weather in Europe is testing the capabilities of the energy system, rapidly increasing demand for gas and putting pressure on fuel stockpiles. Simultaneously, the global oil market continues to grapple with an oversupply, although specific risks and conflicts are keeping market participants cautious. Negotiations for peace in Ukraine offer faint hope for easing sanctions-related tensions, but the main restrictions remain in place. Meanwhile, investment in hydrocarbon extraction and the development of green energy remains high, reflecting countries' desire to ensure energy security and accelerate the transition to clean energy. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply and Cautious Demand Pressuring Prices
Global oil prices at the end of January remain under moderate downward pressure, despite recent short-term spikes. The Brent benchmark is trading in the $64–67 per barrel range, while US WTI hovers around $59–61, approximately 15% lower than levels a year ago. Thus, the market maintains relative stability following a post-crisis price normalisation, though the balance remains fragile. Key factors influencing the oil market include:
- OPEC+ Policies: The oil alliance has taken a pause after a prolonged period of increasing production. At a meeting in late 2025, OPEC+ countries decided to maintain aggregate production at the current level, cancelling planned quota increases for Q1 2026. This decision was made against a backdrop of signs of oil oversupply in the market and led to a slight price increase at the start of the year. However, OPEC+’s share of global supplies remains below previous highs, as the alliance has not fully recovered lost positions during quota increases.
- Non-OPEC Production Growth: Alongside OPEC+ actions, other producers are continuing to increase supply. Independent companies in the US have ramped up shale production to a record ~13 million barrels per day, nearing historical highs. Significant contributions to the rise in global supply come from new projects in Latin America (Brazil, Guyana) and the recovery of production in Canada. As a result, global oil production is outpacing demand, forming excess inventories and exerting downward pressure on the prices of oil and petroleum products.
- Global Demand: Oil consumption is increasing at a much slower pace than in previous years. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand growth in 2026 will be around +0.9 million barrels per day (less than +1%), comparable to last year’s figure and significantly lower than the growth rates seen in 2023. OPEC forecast similar dynamics (around +1.3 million barrels per day). The reasons for the restrained growth include a slowdown in the global economy (particularly a deceleration in GDP growth in China and other major consumers) and energy-saving measures. High prices in previous years have encouraged efficiency improvements and shifts to alternative sources, further limiting the market's appetite.
- Geopolitics and Finances: Geopolitical events continue to create a backdrop for price fluctuations, but their impact is overshadowed by oversupply. This winter, tensions have escalated in the Middle East: threats of military conflict regarding Iran triggered a brief price spike, while a sudden political upheaval in Venezuela at the start of January led to a temporary halt in exports from the country. Additionally, localized disruptions have been observed in certain regions — for example, drone attacks and technical issues have curtailed production in Kazakhstan. However, the global market has reacted relatively calmly to these events: excessive stocks and spare capacities of other producers have compensated for localized losses. An additional stabilising factor is the expectations of a softening monetary policy in the US and Europe in the event of further economic slowdown, which supports investor optimism and alleviates the strong dollar's pressure on commodities. At the same time, the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West remains unresolved: despite cautious optimism regarding potential peaceful resolution in Ukraine, existing restrictions on Russian oil and petroleum products remain. Russian Urals oil is still sold at a significant discount (around ~$40 per barrel, well below Brent quotes), reflecting export limitations and price ceilings. Overall, the combination of factors keeps oil prices within a narrow range, with the market requiring a clear impetus — either significant production cuts or a substantial demand increase — to break out of the current equilibrium.
European Gas Market: Cold Weather Reduces Stocks and Triggers Price Volatility
In the gas sector, the beginning of 2026 has seen a sharp change in sentiment — from an abundance of fuel to grappling with the consequences of cold weather. The European Union entered winter with unprecedented high gas reserves in underground storage (UGS): by early January, they were over 90% full, which previously allowed exchange prices to drop to year-long lows (gas prices at the TTF hub briefly fell to ~$330 per 1,000 m3, or around €28 per MWh). However, the prolonged cold snap, impacting much of Europe in January, sharply increased energy demand. Gas withdrawals from storage reached record volumes — by January 21, stocks had dropped to approximately 47% capacity, significantly below the average levels of previous years for this date. Gas prices surged: since the start of the month, TTF quotes have risen by around 30%, climbing from ~$34 (29 €) to ~$45 (≈39 €) per MWh. This is the sharpest January increase in five years, driven by a combination of weather factors and global market trends. Nevertheless, despite this spike, European prices remain several times lower than the peak values of the crisis winter of 2021-2022, and high reserves in storage currently protect the region from shortages. Here are the main trends affecting the gas market:
- Minimisation of Russian Imports: EU countries have almost entirely abandoned deliveries of Russian pipeline gas over the past year. Russia's share in European imports has dropped to 10-15% (down from over 40% before 2022). Missing volumes have successfully been replaced via alternative channels: LNG imports from the US, Qatar, Africa, and the Middle East are being fully utilized. The commissioning of new regasification terminals (in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and other countries) has expanded the infrastructure capability for receiving LNG. As a result, Europe has diversified its sources and managed to stockpile significant gas reserves ahead of winter without reliance on Gazprom.
- US-EU LNG Deal: The large-scale long-term agreement between Washington and Brussels for American LNG supplies worth up to $750 billion over 2026-2028 is currently being implemented slowly. This delay is largely tied to market conditions: in the context of low prices last autumn, European importers purchased smaller volumes than the agreements had anticipated. For instance, from September to December 2025, gas deliveries from the US to the EU were estimated at around $29.6 billion, significantly lagging behind the stated annual targets. Cheap gas in the spot market reduced the economic incentive to select fixed long-term volumes. Now, with prices recovering this winter, an uptick in contract supplies can be expected once again, as the need for American LNG rises, and market participants are revising their purchasing strategies to ensure UGS are filled ahead of the next heating season.
- Weather Factor: The current situation has demonstrated that even record stocks are insufficient during extreme weather conditions. Abnormally cold temperatures across several Northern Hemisphere regions (Europe, North America, parts of Asia) have led to a synchronous rise in gas demand, rapidly depleting reserves. Should the cold persist, new price surges may occur — traders have already shifted to a ‘bullish’ sentiment, actively buying gas futures in anticipation of further price increases. Furthermore, Europe’s infrastructure is operating under increased strain: gas transport operators have ramped up withdrawals from UGS, and LNG suppliers are hurriedly redirecting tankers towards European terminals, despite fierce competition with Asian consumers. An additional factor is environmental restrictions: stringent CO2 emission standards limit the ability to increase domestic gas production in several EU countries. This means that in prolonged cold weather, Europe will have to rely on imports and past stockpiles, contributing to market volatility.
- Demand in Asia: Asian countries are also experiencing winter increases in gas consumption, competing with Europe for LNG. China and India are actively increasing LNG purchases to meet peak needs: northern provinces of China are facing heightened heating demand, and India is securing additional gas supplies for power generation. At the same time, China continues to boost its natural gas production (in 2025, national gas output increased by around 6%, reaching new record levels), yet this is insufficient to meet domestic demand fully, so China remains the world’s largest gas importer. India, for its part, is capitalising on the sanction market, increasing its purchases of cheap Russian LNG alongside oil, thereby strengthening its energy security and indirectly supporting global demand. Overall, the winter demand resurgence in Asia exacerbates the pressure on the global gas market. However, thanks to high European stocks and flexible supply routes, serious shortages are being avoided.
International Situation: Sanctions Standoff and New Risks for Energy
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly impact global energy. There is a fragile equilibrium in relations between Russia and the West: on one hand, cautious negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine began in late 2025, creating optimism about possible partial easing of sanctions. Consequently, the European Union has so far delayed the implementation of new stringent measures (another sanctions package) in anticipation of diplomatic shifts. Separate dialogue channels, such as negotiations regarding grain deals and prisoner exchanges, are being maintained, signalling the parties' desire to avoid further escalation. On the other hand, no significant breakthroughs have occurred: the main economic restrictions against the Russian energy sector remain in place, and Washington and Brussels underscore their readiness to increase pressure if progress on the political track stalls. Investors are accounting for these risks: any information regarding the negotiations or potential new sanctions is immediately reflected in oil and gas contract prices, forcing the market to navigate between hopes for de-escalation and fears of intensified confrontation.
Beyond the Russian-West dimension, other geopolitical events have emerged that could impact energy as well. In early January, a political crisis erupted in Venezuela: President Nicolas Maduro was ousted amidst internal unrest with indirect support from the US. This resulted in a temporary reduction in Venezuelan oil exports, as infrastructure and supply networks have been disorganised. Washington has called on international companies to invest in revitalising Venezuela's oil sector, anticipating increased global supply from this country in the future, but in the short term, the market faces yet another factor of uncertainty. Simultaneously, tensions in the Middle East have intensified: sharp rhetoric and threats exchanged between the US and Iran (amid disputes over Tehran's nuclear programme) have raised concerns about potential interruptions in oil deliveries from the Persian Gulf region. Although a direct military confrontation has been averted, and production at Middle Eastern fields continues without significant disruptions, the risk premium in pricing has slightly increased. Additionally, instabilities in several African countries are capable of impacting energy resource production (for example, internal conflicts in Nigeria and Libya intermittently reduce oil exports). Thus, the international situation at the beginning of 2026 is characterised by heightened uncertainty. Thus far, the global energy market is sufficiently ‘watered down’ with excessive reserves to withstand individual shocks, but further escalation of conflicts or failed diplomatic efforts could alter this balance and lead to new price spikes. Market participants are closely monitoring geopolitical developments, recognising that political decisions can swiftly reshape power dynamics on the global energy map.
Asia: Growing Domestic Production in China and Steady Import of Energy Resources in India
- China: Asia's largest economy is confidently increasing its domestic hydrocarbon production, setting new records. By the end of 2025, oil production in China exceeded 4.3 million barrels per day, while the annual gas output reached an all-time high (approximately +6% growth compared to the previous year). Beijing is actively investing in expanding refining capacities (refineries) and developing power generation, including the construction of new thermal power plants and renewable energy projects, aiming to reduce import dependency. Concurrently, the government is allocating funds for exploring new fields and improving oil recovery technologies to ensure long-term energy security. The economic growth slowdown observed in China in 2025 resulted in only moderate growth in domestic energy demand. Nevertheless, China remains the world's largest importer of oil and gas, continuing to procure significant volumes of raw materials from abroad to meet its substantial needs.
- India: The world's second-most populous country maintains a course toward ensuring its economy has access to affordable energy resources, balancing external pressures with national interests. Despite calls from the US to curb cooperation with Russia and sanctions imposed by Western countries, Indian refineries are continuing to actively purchase Russian oil. In December 2025, oil supplies from Russia to India were estimated at over 1.2 million barrels per day (following a record ~1.77 million barrels in November when Indian refineries hurried to secure cheap raw materials before new sanctions took effect). Thus, Russia has solidified its status as a key supplier to the Indian market, providing crude at substantial discounts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with President Vladimir Putin at the end of the year, reaffirming the commitment to a long-term energy partnership between the two countries. Simultaneously, India is striving to develop its own production: national programs for developing offshore oil and gas fields are being implemented, while coal production for energy needs is increasing. However, growth in domestic production is not fast enough to meet the rising demand, so New Delhi will continue relying on imports, utilising advantageous opportunities in the global market (including sourcing inexpensive energy resources from sanctioned suppliers) to satisfy its economic needs.
- Southeast Asia: Countries in this region, whose economies require inexpensive electricity for industrial growth, continue to rely on traditional energy resources, primarily coal. Despite global environmental trends, there has been further expansion of coal generation in Southeast Asia in 2025. New coal-fired power plants capable of meeting the growing demand for electricity are being commissioned in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and several other states. Governments in these nations assert that high demand for cheap and reliable energy prevents a complete abandonment of coal, even with renewable energy development programs in place. At the same time, infrastructure modernization is underway while plans for ‘greening’ energy in the future are discussed, but for the immediate future, coal will maintain a crucial role in the region's energy balance. In addition to coal, Southeast Asian countries are increasingly importing LNG to diversify energy sources (e.g., Thailand and Bangladesh are actively building LNG terminals). Therefore, the Asian continent is generally combining the growth of domestic production with increased imports, remaining a key driver of global demand for traditional energy resources.
Renewable Energy: Record Global Investments and Integration into Energy Systems
The global energy transition continues to gain momentum, setting new benchmarks. By the end of 2025, the world installed a record volume of renewable energy capacity — around 750 GW of new installations (in total for solar, wind, and other ‘green’ generation). Investments in clean energy reached an all-time high, exceeding $2 trillion for the year, indicating an unwavering interest from governments and businesses in this sector. New solar power plants (SPPs) and wind farms (WPPs) account for an increasingly significant share of electricity generation in various countries. For example, preliminary data suggests that in the EU, the combined generation from sun and wind exceeded electricity production from coal-fired power plants for the first time in 2025, solidifying a shift that emerged following the crisis of 2022-2023. Similar trends are observed in other regions: in the US, renewables generated over 30% of electricity at the start of 2025, while annual capacity additions from renewables in China set another record. Simultaneously, the mass introduction of ‘green’ energy presents several practical challenges to energy systems, as evidenced in the past year. Key features characterising the current phase of the energy transition include:
- The Need for Reserves and Hybrid Solutions: Despite the rapid growth of the renewable energy share, traditional sources — coal, gas, and nuclear energy — remain necessary components of the energy balance to ensure stability. Experts estimate that global energy consumption in 2025 was still approximately 80% covered by fossil fuels. The intermittency problem of renewable sources (when the sun does not shine at night and the wind calms) compels countries to maintain backup capacities. During peak loads or adverse weather conditions, energy systems still rely on gas and even coal-fired power plants to avoid outages. Last winter, several European countries temporarily increased coal power generation during periods when wind energy was insufficient, underscoring the role of ‘classic’ stations as a buffer. To enhance reliability, many governments are investing in energy storage systems — industrial batteries, pumped storage stations — and developing smart grids capable of flexibly managing loads. All these measures aim to improve the resilience of energy supply as the share of renewables increases.
- Regional Differences: The frontrunners regarding the pace of renewable technology adoption remain developed western nations and China. The EU and the US have implemented extensive incentive programs: subsidies and tax breaks to accelerate renewable energy construction and localize equipment production (for example, the US IRA law and European climate financing initiatives). At the same time, Western nations do not abandon insurances mechanisms — strategic reserves of oil and gas are retained for emergencies. China is following its own path, combining renewable energy development with enhancing traditional generation base capacities: alongside the rollout of thousands of megawatts of solar panels and wind turbines, Beijing is constructing new hydro and nuclear power plants. This approach allows China to balance its energy system and meet growing demand without relying solely on intermittent sources. In developing countries, the pace of transition is more measured: limited investment opportunities and a need for cheap energy result in a prolonged reliance on fossil fuels, though the first major renewable projects are emerging with support from international organisations.
- Impact on the Electricity Market: The rapid growth of renewable generation is already altering the structure of markets. In specific hours, when output from sun and wind is at a maximum, electricity surpluses are observed, leading to wholesale price declines, sometimes even negative values. Such episodes were recorded in 2025 in Europe (for example, in Germany during windy spring days) and in some provinces of China. Cheap or even ‘free’ energy during peak hours encourages consumers and businesses to shift to flexible consumption patterns, while operators are developing storage infrastructure (batteries, hydrogen technologies) to retain surplus energy. Moreover, the gradual de-carbonization of the economy is expanding the carbon quota and tax markets, encouraging companies to reduce emissions and invest in clean technologies. Overall, the outcomes of last year confirm the sustainability of the trend towards energy transition: the share of renewable sources in global energy supply is steadily increasing. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, total renewable generation may for the first time exceed coal-fired electricity production at the global level. Nevertheless, in the coming years, there remains a need to maintain a balance between ‘green’ technologies and traditional resources to ensure reliable operation of energy systems under any scenario.
Coal Market: Steady Demand and the Drive for Gradual ‘Greening’
Despite efforts to reduce emissions, coal demonstrated resilience in demand once again in 2025, particularly in Asia. Global coal consumption reached record levels — approximately 8.8 billion tonnes for the year, an increase of ~0.5% compared to 2024. This dynamic reflects a complex balance between developed nations reducing coal usage and developing economies increasing its combustion to support growth. The principal demand growth came from the Asian region, while consumption in Europe and North America, conversely, declined. The current situation in the coal market is characterised by the following points:
- China and India: The two largest developing economies continue to actively use coal for electricity generation and steel production. In China, despite the closure of some outdated coal mines and the declared aim of reaching peak emissions by the end of the decade, new modern coal-fired power plants are being commissioned — the cumulative capacity of launched or under-construction units exceeds 50 GW. India is also rapidly expanding its coal generation, striving to meet the rising energy demand of industry and population. The governments of both countries emphasise that coal will remain the primary energy source for their economies in the coming years, even while programs for renewable energy development and coal-power generation efficiency enhancements (such as emission cleaning technologies) are being implemented in parallel.
- Exporters and Prices: Major global coal suppliers — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa — maintained high levels of production and export in 2025, meeting the demand of Asian buyers. After a tumultuous rise in prices in 2022-2023, the global coal market has stabilised: prices for thermal coal (the Newcastle benchmark) are holding in the $120-140 per tonne range, significantly below the peaks of two years ago, yet still providing profitability for mining and trading. Coal stocks at terminals in key importing countries (China, India, Japan) are at comfortable levels, preventing panic price surges even during temporary disruptions. For instance, the challenges of Indonesia's rainy season or logistical difficulties in Australia are no longer leading to panic-driven price rises, as was observed during the crisis, thanks to created reserves and diversified supply routes.
- Developed Countries’ Policies: In the US, the EU, and the UK, a course towards phasing out coal generation continues. In 2025, the share of coal in electricity production in the West decreased at double-digit rates — old power plants are being retired at an accelerated pace, and new projects are being blocked due to environmental regulations and economic infeasibility (renewable energy and gas are often cheaper). The European Commission and governments are imposing increasingly strict limits on CO2 emissions, making coal power costly to maintain. As a result, coal consumption in energy production in Europe has fallen to its lowest levels in decades. In the US, a similar trend is observed: several states announced plans to completely close coal power plants by the 2030s. However, the global effect of these measures is being offset by increases in Asia — the decline in Western demand is being compensated by heightened coal combustion in developing countries. Thus, global coal consumption remains near record levels, though the first steps toward its long-term reduction are evident. In prospects, as renewables become cheaper and energy storage systems improve, the global economy's dependence on coal is expected to decrease, but the transition period will extend for several years.
Russian Market for Petroleum Products: Extension of Measures to Stabilise Fuel Prices
As of early 2026, the domestic petroleum products market in Russia remains relatively calm, achieved through government intervention in the second half of last year. After a spike in gasoline and diesel prices last summer, authorities implemented a package of urgent measures that continue to be in effect. These steps allowed the saturation of the domestic market with fuel, reduced wholesale prices, and prevented shortages during the high-demand season. Key measures and their developments include:
- Fuel Export Restrictions: The government has extended the ban (and quotas) on exporting gasoline and diesel, imposed in autumn 2025, for an indefinite period until the market stabilises. Most oil companies are still prohibited from exporting motor fuels abroad, except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements and contracts for allied countries. Consequently, significant volumes of gasoline and diesel were redirected to the domestic market, increasing supply at filling stations and wholesale bases. As a result, wholesale prices for fuel, which peaked in September, have decreased and continue to be notably below those highs.
- Adjustment of the Damper Mechanism: From October 1, 2025, the formula for calculating the fuel damper (compensatory payments to oil companies for domestic fuel sales) was temporarily modified. For the period until spring 2026, the government decided not to account for the ‘deviation from the base price’ in calculating the damper for gasoline and diesel, effectively increasing payments to refineries. This measure has heightened the economic incentive for refineries to supply the domestic market and has contributed to falling exchange prices. For instance, according to data from the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, the wholesale price of AI-95 gasoline in mid-January 2026 was about 8-10% lower than the peak values from September 2025. Thus, financial mechanisms have worked: producers receive compensation for lost profits from exports, while consumers enjoy more stable prices at filling stations.
- Current Situation and Prospects: At the beginning of 2026, the internal fuel market in Russia is in a balanced state. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel are either stable or continue to decrease slightly. Stocks of petroleum products in distribution networks and storage tanks are sufficient to cover winter demand, with no significant supply disruptions observed. The government states that the situation is under control: production, export, and global market price indicators are being monitored in conjunction with companies. In case of a sharp rise in global oil prices (which could trigger a new outflow of fuel for export), authorities are prepared to promptly implement additional restrictions or tariffs to prevent domestic prices from spiking. Simultaneously, gradual phasing out of restrictions is being considered, provided the market stabilises and becomes saturated — possibly transitioning to a phased lifting of export bans for specific companies with an obligation to ensure domestic sales. For now, the manual management regime remains in force. For investors and industry participants, these measures signify predictable pricing conditions in the domestic market, even while limiting companies' export opportunities. Overall, the combination of administrative restrictions and subsidies has allowed Russia to navigate the autumn-winter period without a fuel crisis, demonstrating a willingness to continue implementing non-market levers to ensure stability in gasoline and diesel prices domestically.
