Oil and Gas News and Energy: Friday, 11 September 2026 — Brent Holds Above $102 After Largest Tanker Attack in the Strait of Hormuz, Gas in Europe Above €80
The global fuel and energy sector enters Friday, 11 September 2026, amidst a full-blown price shock. Brent crude is trading above $102 per barrel for the first time since late May, while the European gas benchmark TTF has crossed the €80 mark per MWh for the first time since January 2023. Underground gas storage in the EU is only two-thirds full, well below the seasonal norm of over 80%. The trigger has been the largest wave of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, with a second front now opening in the Red Sea. For investors, oil and fuel companies, refinery operators, and participants in the gas, coal, electricity, and renewable energy markets, the key question of the day is: how much more geopolitical premium can the global economy absorb before demand for energy carriers begins to collapse.
Key Topic of the Day: The Tanker War in the Strait of Hormuz Has Escalated
On the night of Wednesday, the US sank five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island as part of the "tanker-for-tanker" policy declared by Washington in early September. Tehran responded with attacks on ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and a missile strike on the US base Al-Azraq in Jordan. According to maritime monitors, at least one crew member from the tanker has died, and another is currently missing. This marks the largest series of attacks on commercial shipping since the war began on 28 February.
The physical landscape for the oil and gas market is deteriorating in three key areas:
- Expanded Exclusion Zone. The IRGC has declared a maritime exclusion zone from Chabahar through the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Sea and has called on tanker crews off the coasts of Bahrain and Kuwait to vacate their vessels immediately.
- Insurance and Freight. New incidents effectively nullify the availability of war risk cover for ships taking "unauthorised" routes, cementing transit through the strait at minimal levels.
- Environmental Risk. Damaged and partially sunken tankers in the Persian Gulf pose a threat to desalination plants and coastal infrastructure in Gulf countries.
Oil: Brent Above $102, WTI at $96 — Market Revises Price Expectations
Key benchmarks for the oil market as of Friday morning:
- Brent (November contract, ICE): Rose by 3.4% on Wednesday to $101.21, peaking at $102.4–102.9 on Thursday — the highest since 22 May. The yearly peak of $126.41 (30 April) remains a reference for a "bearish" scenario regarding Hormuz.
- WTI (October contract, NYMEX): Settled in the range of $96–97 per barrel.
- Forecasts: The September review by the US Department of Energy projected an average Brent price of around $90 for the second half of 2026, falling to $74 in 2027 — figures that already appear outdated, just two days after publication at current quotes. Long-term models from several Asian banks indicate $113–114 within the next 12 months.
Stocks and Physical Balance
Global oil stocks, according to the US regulator, have fallen by approximately 400 million barrels since the beginning of the year, with the recovery of production in the Middle East now pushed back to the second quarter of 2027. The US strategic reserve stands at around 286.6 million barrels, the lowest since the early 1980s. Commercial crude oil inventories in the US before the delayed weekly report, now due Thursday, stood at 424.5 million barrels with refinery utilisation at 98%; distillate inventories are 14% below the five-year average and are projected to fall below 100 million barrels by September.
OPEC+ and Monthly Reports
Seven OPEC+ countries on 6 September kept October quotas unchanged after six months of consecutive production increases; the next meeting is scheduled for 4 October. The monthly OPEC report set to be released on Thursday will outline demand following an August downgrade in the consumption growth forecast for 2026 to 0.58 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency expects a decrease in global demand by 1.6 million barrels per day amid a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 8.3 million barrels per day of production in the Gulf, which remains halted.
Red Sea: Houthi Strikes on Jazan Refinery Open a Second Front for Oil Exports
While the market watched Hormuz, Yemeni Houthis conducted a series of drone and rocket strikes on the Saudi Aramco oil refinery complex in Jazan, with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, on 7–8 September, as well as on storage facilities in Jazan and Abha. The refinery has been shut down, and the coalition led by Riyadh has promised to "respond to the sources of the threat." Concurrently, Houthis are engaging in combat near the port of Mocha, getting closer to the Bab-el-Mandeb coast.
The significance of this front for global energy is hard to overstate: Following the closure of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has redirected exports via the East-West Pipeline to the Yanbu terminal, through which over 90% of the kingdom's maritime supplies were transported in June. The embargo announced by the Houthis has forced Asian shipments to be rerouted via Suez, extending the journey by approximately 30 days and increasing freight costs. The threat to Yanbu poses a risk to the last major bypass channel for Middle Eastern oil.
European Gas Market: TTF Above €80, Storage at 67% — Worst Winter Start in 15 Years
The front-month TTF futures traded at €80.3–80.8 per MWh on Thursday (approximately $985 per 1,000 cubic meters), exceeding €80 for the first time since winter 2023. Since the onset of the conflict, prices have risen by approximately 150%, and over 120% since the beginning of the year. The British NBP has approached 200 pence per therm. Key drivers of the increase include:
- Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and continued suspension of LNG exports from Qatar;
- Widening spread between JKM and TTF, drawing spot cargoes to Asia;
- Record low storage levels: as of 9 September, EU gas storage is filled to 67.33% (71.87 billion cubic meters) compared to a five-year average of around 84%.
The variation between countries remains critical: Germany — approximately 53%, Austria — 67%, France — 71%, Italy — 83%. European operators are injecting gas at record paces but at the highest prices in four years. In contrast, the Henry Hub in the US has dropped below $2.8 per million BTU — transatlantic arbitrage opportunities for US LNG exporters have reached historical proportions.
LNG and Coal: Atlantic and Coal Generation Filling Qatar's Gap
Damage to the Ras Laffan complex has rendered about 17% of Qatar's export capacity inoperable; complete recovery is estimated to take up to five years, resulting in a loss of around $20 billion in annual revenue. Approximately 15 laden LNG tankers are idling behind Hormuz, while two are being loaded at the port — the market interprets the return of empty vessels home as a potential preparatory step for resuming shipments, but without passage through the strait, this remains a signal rather than a delivery.
For the coal sector, the LNG crisis presents an unplanned window of demand. The switch from gas to coal in Europe and Asia is estimated at 40–60 million tonnes; coal power generation has increased nearly 40% in South Korea and by over 11% in Japan. Newcastle prices are hovering around $130 per tonne, supported by disruptions in Indonesian supply, while global coal demand in 2026 could grow by around 3% — reaching 9.1 billion tonnes.
Oil Products and Refineries: Refining Margins Increase, Russia Manually Controls Domestic Market
The global market for middle distillates remains the tightest segment: deficits in diesel and jet fuel in Asia and Europe are supporting crack spreads at multi-year highs, while planned fall maintenance at US refineries temporarily reduces supply. The shutdown of the Jazan refinery removes over 200,000 barrels per day of diesel and nafta export volumes from the market.
In Russia, the domestic oil products market is operating manually:
- A complete ban on gasoline exports has been extended until 31 January 2027, and the normative exchange sales quota has been reduced to 10% (of which 8% are targeted transactions), effectively leaving around 2% of output to the free market;
- Exchange indices paradoxically decline despite shortages: the average price for AI-92 at SPbMTSB on 8 September was 69,200 rubles/ton, and AI-95 was 71,800 rubles/ton, with trading volumes at 11,600 tons per session — three times below normal;
- The reason for this is months-long shipment delays under exchange contracts due to refinery shutdowns following drone attacks; the price gap between bases reaches 25,000 rubles/ton;
- The deficit is being compensated by sea imports of gasoline from India, up to 400,000 tons per month.
Electricity and Renewables: Energy Transition as the Only Predictable Trend
Amidst raw material chaos, the structural shift in electricity generation is accelerating. Global electricity demand is set to grow by 3.6% in 2026, driven by data centres, electric transport, and air conditioning, while renewable sources are surpassing coal for the first time in global output. Solar generation is adding about 600 TWh, rising to second place after hydropower. However, short-term vulnerability persists: in Europe, the share of wind at the beginning of the week dropped below 15% of demand, which directly translated into rising gas and electricity prices. Each euro increase in TTF enhances the economics of storage, network investments, and long-term contracts for "green" electricity.
Calendar: What Energy Sector Market Participants Should Watch on Friday
- The market's reaction to the monthly OPEC report and the postponed weekly statistics from the US Department of Energy on oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories.
- US inflation data for August: the raw material shock increases the likelihood of a firmer tone from the Fed, which may dampen speculative demand for oil.
- Statements from the coalition regarding Yemen and any signals regarding the condition of the Yanbu terminal.
- The dynamics of gas injections into European storage facilities and the JKM–TTF spread as an indicator of competition for spot LNG.
- Weekly results at SPbMTSB and decisions by Russian regulators on exchange regulations and fuel imports.
Conclusions and Risks for Investors and Energy Sector Companies
- Oil. The $100 level has transitioned from resistance to support; the range of scenarios for the quarter varies from $85 with de-escalation to $120 with new attacks on vessels and Red Sea infrastructure.
- Gas. Europe is entering the heating season with historically low stock levels; in the event of a cold winter, TTF prices above €90–100 per MWh become a baseline rather than a stress scenario.
- Coal. Northeastern Asia and parts of Europe will maintain elevated coal consumption until the restoration of Qatari LNG — at least until spring 2027.
- Oil Products and Refineries. Crack spreads are supporting margins for refiners outside the conflict zone; in Russia, profits are being redistributed from independent gas stations to vertically integrated companies.
- Renewables and Electricity. The long-term capital flow into solar and wind generation, storage, and networks remains the only resilient investment idea amid geopolitical volatility.
The conclusion of the day for the global oil, gas, and energy sectors: two maritime chokepoints — Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb — are simultaneously under fire, and their condition, rather than OPEC+ quotas or macro statistics, will dictate prices for oil, gas, and electricity in the coming weeks. For participants in the energy sector market, scenario planning, diversification of supply logistics, and hedging discipline are critically important.
