Oil & Gas and Energy News for 27 April 2026: Crisis in the Persian Gulf, Rise in Oil and Gas Prices, Impact on the Fuel and Energy Complex and Global Energy Market
The global fuel and energy complex (FEC) has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty. The situation in the Persian Gulf, where disruptions to shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz persist, has once again come to the forefront, prompting a sharp rise in insurance premiums and prices for oil and gas. Against this backdrop, increased demand for electricity and interruptions in gas supply are intensifying competition for LNG supplies, as countries prepare for shortages of diesel and aviation fuel. Global oil prices are again hovering around $100 per barrel, while gas prices have surged to record levels for early spring. In such conditions, energy-intensive industries are revising their strategies, and investors are closely monitoring the liquidity of gas storage and logistics for supplies. Simultaneously, the crisis is driving an increase in investments in renewable energy sources (RES): companies and governments are ramping up projects in solar and wind energy, as well as developing battery storage networks to enhance the reliability of energy systems.
Oil Market: Pricing and Demand Dynamics
Oil prices continue to be influenced by geopolitical risks. Brent remains around $100 per barrel, supported by insurance premiums in light of escalating conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, spot prices for raw materials for forward deliveries in Europe are rising rapidly—approaching $130–150. Analysts note that global oil reserves remain substantial (around 7–8 billion barrels outside of Russia), but more than half of this is beyond the reach of consuming countries. The potential for further price increases depends on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the response of OPEC+ producers.
- Drivers: Reductions in supplies from the Persian Gulf and geopolitical tensions are pushing prices upward.
- Demand: A significant drop in demand is already being observed in Asia, with many refineries scaling back processing and some flights and ferries suspending operations.
- Forecasts: Goldman Sachs maintains its average Brent price forecast for 2026 around $80–85, believing that the situation may normalise by summer; however, the real uptick in prices in the spot segment continues to exert pressure on inflation.
Persian Gulf and Logistics: Alternative Routes
Blockades and fears of escalation around Iran continue to threaten key delivery routes for oil and gas. Approximately 20–30% of global energy shipping passes through Hormuz, and daily vessel traffic has currently decreased by about four times compared to the norm. Countries are urgently redirecting supplies via alternative routes: oil is being partially redirected through the western coast of Saudi Arabia and UAE terminals, as well as via the Iraqi pipeline to Turkey. Nevertheless, all this is accompanied by rising freight rates and insurance charges, with logistical constraints becoming a revenue source for some companies and a risk for most.
Gas and LNG Market: Competition Between Europe and Asia
The natural gas and LNG segment is experiencing an acute phase of competition. The reduction in LNG supplies from the Gulf region following the closure of Hormuz has intensified the race for flexible cargoes. Europe and Asia are now competing for every tanker shipment: European buyers are keen to replenish storage ahead of winter, while Asian gas companies are actively seeking immediate supplies on the spot market.
- Inventories: EU storage capacity at the end of March was significantly below the five-year average, at around 25%, increasing the risks of winter shortages.
- Prices: Prices at the European TTF hub and Asian JKM have surged to multi-tier highs of 2022, nearly +50–70% over the past month.
- Imports: The US has ramped up LNG exports to a historic maximum but is unable to fully offset all losses. New volumes from Qatar, Australia, and Africa will only help partially.
Refining and Oil Products: Capacity Reductions
Refining in Asia has sharply declined. Refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore have already cut back production—total refining volumes in the region fell by 10–15% in April compared to February. Some plants faced closures of Chinese fuel exports to maintain a domestic balance. Consequently, diesel and aviation fuel production may decrease by 1–1.5 million barrels per day, exacerbating fuel shortages. In Europe, the fuel situation appears more stable due to domestic production and reserves: the Dutch government has stated that with full activation of reserves of petrol, diesel, and kerosene, the EU can meet its needs for over six months. However, prices for oil products have reached record levels: freight rates and diesel premiums have especially surged. For refiners, this means additional foreign exchange earnings, but for airlines and freight carriers, it translates into increased financial burdens.
- Imports: The EU has increased purchases of North Sea and American oil to compensate for the deficit of medium-sulphur grades.
- Reserves: European refineries are reducing fuel exports, focusing on the domestic market; strategic reserves have been partially repurposed for aviation consumption.
- Support Measures: Airlines and carriers are introducing fuel surcharges, while governments are preparing subsidies and soft loans for refinery upgrades.
Coal and Power Generation: A Priority for Reliability
Due to rising gas prices and threats to gas supply, some countries are forced to strengthen coal generation to maintain energy balance. In the EU and Asia, several regions have already announced programmes to switch energy blocks to coal "until the crisis ends." This has temporarily increased demand and prices for coking and thermal coal—with quotes for energy-focused grades rising by about 15–20% in March-April. However, analysts warn that the scale of this surge is smaller than in 2022, as coal capacities have fallen, and strict limitations apply on Asian contracts. Nevertheless, the heated price parity between gas and coal is prompting some consumers to switch to the cheaper fuel. At the same time, countries with developed nuclear generation (France, China) are increasing its share, and owners of standby generating capacities (power plants) are receiving additional margins for their readiness to be activated quickly.
Renewable Energy: Accelerating the Transition
The energy crisis has strengthened the arguments for "clean" energy. According to the IEA, by 2025, global installations of solar and wind capacity will have grown at record rates. China installed more than half of the world's new additions: nearly 370 GW of solar and 117 GW of wind capacity. The European Union added around 85 GW of green generation (mostly solar)—10% more than the previous year. In India and developing regions, growth has been even more intense, with Middle Eastern and African countries doubling their installed capacities.
- Impulses: Rising prices for oil, gas, and coal increase the attractiveness of RES for reducing reliance on imports. Households are installing solar panels, and industry is investing in wind projects.
- Investments: Global companies and funds are channeling capital into electric storage networks and grid upgrades. In the US, a court has suspended restrictive norms on new projects, which should accelerate the launch of wind and solar plants.
- International Initiatives: At the end of April, a conference titled "Phasing out Fossil Fuels" is being held in Colombia, where world leaders are discussing accelerating the transition away from oil and gas.
Support Measures and Market Forecast
Responses to the energy shock are coming from governments as well. The EU has announced financial assistance packages for both the population and businesses: tax holidays, subsidised loans for energy efficiency, and subsidies for airlines and transportation companies. Plans are being developed for utilising strategic fuel reserves and expanding LNG imports. Simultaneously, oil companies are revising their investment programmes: under current prices, it is profitable to accelerate production, particularly in regions with underutilised capacities (the US, Brazil). However, investors are now focusing more on infrastructure and flexibility. It is important to monitor the filling of European gas storage, the Brent/WTI spread, as well as the margins for refining diesel and aviation fuel. At a global level, the transition from cheap oil to costly stability is completing the formation of a new energy landscape, where the price of any energy resource is determined not only by demand but also by the ability to deliver that resource to the consumer.
As Monday, 27 April, approaches, the global energy sector finds itself in a challenging situation: the conflict in the Persian Gulf has led to the largest historical disruptions in oil and gas, which will soon reflect in the real economy and inflation. Demand for coal and electricity is rising in the short term, but the strategic trend is towards the accelerated implementation of renewable sources and diversification of supplies. Investors and market participants must track not only the price dynamics of oil and gas but also logistical factors (tankers, pipelines), fuel inventories, and infrastructure readiness. In the coming weeks, the key factors will be developments in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's export plans, the filling of gas storage, and the cost of alternative energy resources. Ultimately, the ability of companies to manage these risks will determine their success during periods of high volatility in the fuel and energy markets.
