Upcoming IPOs in Russia and the World: Monitoring, Roadshows, and Market Expectations
Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) represent a complex financial theatre where each action is meticulously planned, yet outcomes remain uncertain. Currently, the IPO market is undergoing a transformation. Thousands of companies worldwide are contemplating a public market debut, yet reality often deviates from expectations. In 2024-2025, investors, analysts, and the issuing companies themselves find themselves in a constant search for answers: when will the next wave of offerings arrive, which companies will genuinely be prepared, and where can one find information to avoid missing compelling opportunities.
Understanding the mechanisms of preparing for and conducting IPOs, the ability to track upcoming offerings, and interpret market signals have become critical skills for investors, financial analysts, and corporate leaders. Geopolitical instability, volatility in financial markets, and macroeconomic uncertainty have made the IPO planning process more complex than ever. Whereas in the early 2020s companies almost guaranteed investor interest in their offerings, today, each IPO must carefully justify its attractiveness and fair valuation.
Information Infrastructure: Where to Find Data on Planned IPOs
Official Channels of Exchange Operators
Finding reliable information about upcoming IPOs resembles navigating a maze of official channels, media sources, and paid analytical platforms. Each channel provides a part of the picture, and only by combining multiple sources can investors obtain a comprehensive understanding of the upcoming deals.
Official channels of exchange operators continue to be the primary source of information. The Moscow Exchange publishes details about listing applications under the "Regulatory and Reference Documents" section of its website. Here, key parameters are indicated: company name, economic sector, names of offering organisers, intended book-building period, and approximate trading start date. However, the information is often minimal and tends to serve as a notification for regulatory purposes rather than for investment analysis. The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ provide similar information through their channels, including detailed calendars of upcoming offerings with indications of volumes, price ranges, and process statuses.
Paid Analytical Platforms
Paid analytical platforms—such as Bloomberg Terminal, Refinitiv Eikon, and S&P Global Capital IQ—offer the most comprehensive package of information for professionals. These systems track every stage of IPO preparation: from initial intention announcements to the completion of book-building. They include historical data on offerings, company financial metrics, syndicate composition, expected timelines, and often even valuation opinions from leading investment banks. However, access to these platforms requires expensive subscriptions, making them available primarily to financial institutions and professional investors.
Publicly Available Information Sources
For retail investors and analysts, there are publicly available alternatives. Major financial media outlets—Reuters, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal—regularly publish news regarding upcoming and ongoing IPOs. In the Russian market, this role is filled by RBC, Kommersant, and Interfax, which track the Moscow Exchange's calendar and provide analytical commentary. Such sources are useful for obtaining an overall picture, yet the information often comes with delays and may not always be sufficiently detailed for investment decisions.
Investment Bank Newsletters
Newsletters from investment banks represent an interesting and often overlooked source. Major underwriters (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank) regularly send their clients updates regarding the offerings they organise. These newsletters often contain detailed analytical reviews, historical comparisons, valuation opinions, and forecasts. Access to such communications is available to bank clients, who receive information early and often in a more structured form than public data.
Investor Communities and Multilevel Monitoring
Specialised communities of investors and financial analysts (for example, forums on platforms like Seeking Alpha, Reddit communities, local investment clubs) serve as venues for the exchange of information and analysis regarding upcoming IPOs. While these sources are less reliable than official channels, they often contain deep insights from market participants with access to paid data who are willing to share their findings.
In practice, experienced investors adopt a multilevel approach. They start by checking official exchange calendars, then move on to news agencies for context, consult specialised media for in-depth analysis, and if they have access, leverage paid platforms for detailed scrutiny of financial metrics and deal parameters. This comprehensive monitoring requires time and resources but provides the full picture needed for making informed investment decisions. Many savvy investors also subscribe to newsletters from major investment banks, gaining insights about upcoming offerings ahead of the public announcements.
Roadshows: The Art of Persuasion and Demand Generation
Structure and Importance of Roadshows
A roadshow represents one of the most dramatic and psychologically intense phases of a company's IPO preparation. It is not merely a presentation; it is a targeted campaign to generate interest, shape positive perceptions, and ultimately, create demand for the future offering.
The structure of the roadshow reflects the geopolitical and economic hierarchy of modern financial markets. The first phase—meetings with institutional investors—is considered the most critical, as these players often dictate the success of the entire offering. Large pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, and asset management investors are located in the world’s financial centres: New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, and other major hubs. For Russian IPOs, this process typically begins with meetings in Moscow before potentially extending to European and Asian centres, especially if foreign capital is being sought.
Preparing Presentation Materials
Preparation for a roadshow begins weeks before the book-building announcement. Company management works with the organising banks’ consultants to develop presentation materials. A standard presentation, usually comprising 30-50 slides, tells the company’s story: its origins, business model, achieved results, competitive position, market opportunities, and critically, the rationale behind the proposed valuation. Slides are meticulously tested—what messages they convey, what questions may arise, and how effectively to present the information.
Meeting Processes and Interactions with Investors
Typically, meetings are attended by the CEO and CFO of the company, and sometimes the COO and other key managers. The logic behind this composition is straightforward: the CEO tells the company’s story and vision, while the CFO dives into financial metrics and details. Meetings are often held in investor offices or in specially reserved hotel conference rooms. Each meeting generally lasts 45-60 minutes: 20-30 minutes for the presentation and the remainder for questions and discussion.
The questions investors pose often become increasingly critical and probing as the roadshow progresses. Initial meetings tend to be friendlier, but as information about the company spreads among investors, they begin to focus on potential weaknesses. Investors inquire about the company’s actual market share, its key competitors, the robustness of its competitive advantages, growth rates in various segments, how it plans to utilise raised capital, key business risks, and management practices.
The Quality of Presentations and Their Impact
The quality of responses to these queries often determines the success of the roadshow. Management that is well-prepared and able to critically discuss the company's issues without attempting to obscure problems often creates a positive impression. Conversely, management that sidesteps tough questions, provides vague answers, or appears uninformed can significantly undermine investor interest in the offering.
Retail Roadshows and Meeting Geography
The second phase of the roadshow—meetings with retail investors—typically takes place alongside institutional meetings, although timing may vary. Retail roadshows are often conducted as webinars (a common practice following the pandemic), allowing for a broader reach to more investors. The presentation is often simplified—avoiding deep financial details, with an emphasis on clarity and the attractiveness of the business idea.
During these meetings, investors often receive brochures (pitchbooks) containing key information: the company’s history, main financial indicators, market analysis, and the intended use of raised capital. These materials are crafted by the banks’ specialists and often serve as a basis for investment decisions regarding participation in the IPO.
The geography of roadshows plays a pivotal role in the offering's success. A large international IPO may span up to 15 cities over 2-3 weeks. For Russian IPOs, if the company aims to attract only Russian capital, meetings typically focus on Moscow and several major regional centres. However, if foreign investments are the target, the roadshow may include tours across Europe and Asia.
Duration and its Impact on Demand
The duration and intensity of a roadshow depend on the size and complexity of the deal. Smaller IPOs, valued at $100-200 million, can be prepared using a series of conference calls and a few in-person meetings. Conversely, larger offerings, particularly those international in nature, require a series of events in various countries. During an intensive roadshow, company management operates under constant stress—repeating the same presentation dozens of times, addressing critical questions, and maintaining enthusiasm and belief in the company despite fatigue.
The impact of the roadshow on book-building outcomes is enormous. Data indicate that a significant portion of demand for an offering materialises during the roadshow, following investor meetings with company management. If the roadshow is successful, and management leaves a positive impression while convincing investors to consider the company's appeal, the book-building typically sees strong demand, multiple oversubscriptions, and the possibility of a price increase. Conversely, an unsuccessful roadshow often results in weak demand, forcing the company to lower its price or even cancel the offering.
Market Expectation Dynamics: From Euphoria to Caution
Macroeconomic Factors
Market expectations regarding future IPO activity tend to possess a life of their own, often reflecting not so much the actual state of companies preparing for offering but rather the overall psychological state of investors and global conditions. These expectations are shaped by numerous factors, some of which have clear economic justifications, while others reflect irrational fears and hopes.
The macroeconomic environment creates a backdrop for forming these expectations. The interest rate level set by central banks directly influences the attractiveness of investments in growing companies and IPOs. When interest rates are low, and investors can gain only a minimal return from risk-free assets (bonds, bank deposits), they are more willing to accept greater risks by investing in emerging companies. This fosters a favourable environment for IPOs—companies receive higher valuations, and investors readily participate in offerings. Conversely, when central banks raise rates to combat inflation, making it possible to earn attractive returns from bonds, investors shift their focus from riskier assets to more conservative ones. As a result, IPO activity declines as both companies and investors await a clearer picture.
Volatility and Sectoral Trends
Stock market volatility serves as an indicator of uncertainty and fear among investors. High volatility often suggests that the market is caught between hope and fear, resulting in investors being less inclined to participate in IPOs of young companies with high uncertainty. Conversely, calmer markets with upward trends promote a revival in IPO activities.
Sectoral trends play a key role in shaping specific expectations. Between 2017 and 2018, investors were obsessed with blockchain and cryptocurrencies, and companies even remotely related to these technologies could secure enormous sums through IPOs at nearly mind-boggling valuations. Attention later shifted to cloud computing, and then to AI. Each time a new hot topic emerges, companies in that sector benefit from favourable conditions for offerings. However, periods of excitement are typically followed by cooling phases when it becomes apparent that many companies were overvalued, and the market starts to demand closer alignment between valuations and actual results.
Geopolitical Factors and Historical Cycles
Geopolitical factors increasingly influence expectations. Sanctions, trade wars, and international conflicts create uncertainties and often lead to the postponement or cancellation of planned IPOs. Following the imposition of sanctions against Russia in 2022, most Russian IPOs that were scheduled for international exchanges were cancelled. Companies and investors have re-evaluated their strategies under a new reality.
Historical cycles indicate that the IPO market follows patterns of boom and bust. The year 2021 was extraordinary for IPOs—in terms of both the number of offerings and capital raised, setting records. However, in 2022-2023, activity fell by 70-80% from peak levels. By 2024-2025, the market is gradually recovering but remains significantly more conservative than in 2021. Investors have become more selective, demanding better justification for valuations and clear strategies for capital use.
Analytical Forecasts and Their Significance
Analysts and journalists regularly publish forecasts regarding future IPO market activity for the year or several years ahead. These forecasts often vary widely—some analysts predict recovery and a return to historically normal activity levels, while others caution about the protraction of the quiet period. Reality typically falls somewhere in between, but the very process of forming and debating forecasts is essential for understanding market expectations. These expectations often transform into self-fulfilling prophecies: if most analysts foresee market revival, investors become more confident and willing to participate in new offerings, which, in turn, stimulates activity.
Pricing: From Analysis to Book-Building
Initial Analysis and Range Determination
Determining a fair price for an IPO is one of the most complex tasks in the financial industry and is prone to manipulation. The process initiates months before the book-building announcement and requires coordination among the issuing company, offering organisers, financial consultants, and regulators.
Offering organisers begin by conducting a detailed analysis of the company: its financial metrics, growth rates, competitive positioning, and prospects. They then identify comparable companies in the same sector that are already publicly traded and analyse the multiples at which these companies are valued. If the comparable companies are trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x, and the assessed company has similar characteristics, it would be reasonable to propose that it should be valued at a similar multiple. However, reality is much more intricate.
Analysis of Multiples and Premiums
Differences in growth rates, profitability, management quality, and competitive positioning lead to various companies trading at significantly different multiples. Fast-growing companies are often valued with a premium—they trade at a higher P/E than slower growth analogues. Companies with strong brands and sustainable competitive advantages command a premium. Conversely, high-risk businesses often see discounts, as investors demand lower prices as compensation for risk.
Based on their analysis of comparables, offering organisers propose a preliminary price range. For instance, they may state: "Based on our analysis, the fair valuation of your company falls within the range of $20-28 per share." This range is typically wider than the final price to allow for manoeuvrability depending on the demand revealed during book-building.
The Role of Book-Building in Pricing
The price range is announced by the company in the so-called 'red herring' (preliminary prospectus)—the initial version of the securities prospectus. At this stage, investors begin conducting their analyses, formulating their own opinions on fair pricing, and deciding what positions they may take during book-building.
Book-building is the central pricing process during an IPO. Offering organisers contact their major clients—institutional investors—and inquire: how many shares would they be willing to buy at various price points? An investor might respond: “At $20, I would like to purchase 500,000 shares; at $24, 300,000 shares; at $28, I’m not interested.” Based on the information from all prospective investors, organisers construct a demand curve showing the total number of shares investors are willing to buy at each price.
Interpreting Demand and Final Pricing
If the demand curve indicates that even at the lowest price point all shares of the offering were oversubscribed (meaning demand exceeds supply), this signifies that the market is highly interested in the company. In this case, organisers might suggest to the company to raise the price range or announce the final price at the upper end of the initial range. Conversely, if even at the maximum price demand covers only a portion of shares, this indicates weak interest, and the company will need to either lower the price, reduce the offering size, or postpone the IPO.
The dynamics of the book-building process often reflect not so much the real value of the company but rather the psychological state of the market at that specific moment. In periods of a "hot" market, when investors are aggressively competing for shares of sought-after IPOs, book-building may show 5-10 times oversubscription, allowing the company to significantly raise prices. During "cold" markets, even quality companies may face weak demand.
The final price is typically announced after the book-building has closed, often in the evening or night according to Moscow time (depending on the time zones of the participants). The final price may fall within the initially announced range but often exceeds it. With strong demand, the price could be raised by 10-20% above the maximum range. Conversely, with weak demand, the price might be lowered to the extent that the company cancels the offering.
Global IPO Markets: Geographical Activity and Recovery
Global Distribution of IPOs by Region
The IPO market in 2024-2025 exhibits a pronounced geographical and sectoral differentiation. North America, historically dominant in capital raised, remains the largest market but is losing its share of the global volume. Asia, particularly Hong Kong and other financial centres in Southeast Asia, exhibits an upward trend. According to analytical agencies, the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 could potentially surpass North America in terms of the number of new offerings, although in terms of capital raised, the American market remains stronger due to the high average value of American IPOs.
The Characteristics of the Russian IPO Market
The Moscow Exchange finds itself in a unique situation. Following the sanctions in 2022 and the delisting of many Russian companies from Western platforms, the Moscow Exchange has become almost the sole option for Russian issuers. This has led to a revival of offering activity in Russia, albeit within the confines of a limited base of foreign investors. Russian IPOs in 2024-2025 primarily attract Russian and Kazakh capital, along with foreign investments from companies and funds that are not subject to sanctions. This paradoxically has fostered the development of a domestic investment base, as Russian investors have had to shift their focus from international markets to the Moscow Exchange.
Recovery in Developed Markets
In the United States, the IPO market is experiencing a recovery after the downturn in 2023. However, this recovery is uneven—technology companies are demonstrating stronger demand than traditional sectors. The average size of IPOs remains smaller than in 2021—companies prefer to launch more modest offerings than before. Interestingly, the NASDAQ, which has traditionally been the venue for young tech companies, has seen a shift in 2024-2025: there are more "boring" companies in traditional sectors, reflecting a more conservative approach from investors towards new offerings.
Europe, particularly London and major continental exchanges, also shows gradual improvement, but the pace of recovery is slower than in the US and Asia. For instance, the number of new offerings on Euronext in 2024 remains significantly below historical norms.
The Ecosystem of Participants: Roles and Interactions
Key Players
Each IPO represents a complex ecosystem in which dozens of organisations and hundreds of professionals work in unison towards a singular goal—successful placement. Understanding the roles of each participant helps investors better evaluate the quality of preparation and the likelihood of a successful offering.
The issuer (the company) initiates the process and is the main "customer" for the entire operation. The issuer's board of directors decides whether to proceed with the IPO, hires organisers and consultants, and makes key strategic choices. Company management is responsible for preparing financial information, participating in the roadshow, and engaging in negotiations with investors. The success of the offering often hinges on how well the management is prepared and how convincingly they can articulate the company's story.
Organisers and Syndicates
The offering organisers (lead managers, bookrunners) are typically one, two, or three major investment banks. They head the entire IPO process: advising the company on deal structure, coordinating book-building, liaising with regulators, managing the syndicate of underwriters, and ensuring the distribution of shares among investors. For their services, they receive a fee, typically ranging from 3-5% of the capital raised. For large placements, size reaching several billion dollars, this fee can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, explaining the fierce competition among banks for the role of organiser.
The underwriting syndicate consists of dozens and even hundreds of investment banks that assist the organisers in placing shares. In large IPOs, the syndicate may include up to 50-100 banks. Each bank in the syndicate commits to selling a certain number of shares to its clients or market-makers, in exchange for a portion of the fee. Syndicate members frequently compensate each other in the open market for shares they have in excess of what they need and purchase shares they are short on, thereby creating a secondary market in the early days of trading.
Advisors and Regulators
Legal advisors represent the interests of both the issuer and the organisers. The primary legal firm on the issuer's side prepares the prospectus, engages with regulators, conducts due diligence, and advises on structural and regulatory issues. The organising legal firm ensures the deal is correctly structured and compliant with all requirements.
Auditors conduct independent checks on the company's financial statements. The auditor's opinion represents one of the most critical conditions for investors. If auditors express doubts about the accuracy of the statements (qualified opinion), it may significantly undermine demand for the offering. The "Big Four" auditing firms (Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG) participate in the overwhelming majority of major IPOs globally.
Regulators (the Central Bank of Russia for Russian IPOs, the SEC for American offerings, the FCA for British ones, etc.) oversee the process, ensuring compliance with regulations and protecting investor rights. Regulatory approval is crucial for completing an offering. The regulatory approval process can take several months and sometimes becomes a bottleneck in the IPO preparation.
Investors and Their Motivations
Investors come in various forms, each with their motivations and constraints. Large pension funds are often in search of long-term investments with relatively predictable cash flows and growth potential. Hedge funds may seek short-term profits from price volatility in the initial weeks of trading following an IPO. Mutual funds commonly engage in IPOs that align with their sector and company size mandates. Retail investors often participate in hopes of swift price increases in the early trading days, even though statistics show that many IPOs drop in price during the weeks following the offering.
Media and analysts play a crucial role in shaping public opinion regarding the offering. Positive reviews and forecasts can lead to increased interest, while critical remarks may deter investors. Major publications release detailed reviews and analyses before significant IPOs, assisting investors in forming their own opinions.
Taking an Investment Decision: A Comprehensive Analysis
Macro-Level Analysis
For an investor contemplating participation in an upcoming IPO, the decision-making process necessitates analysis at several levels concurrently. At the macro level, it is essential to evaluate whether the IPO market is in a favourable phase. Periods of high volatility, low risk appetite, and competing macroeconomic events are often ill-suited for launching new companies. When central banks raise interest rates, when bonds begin yielding attractive returns, and when recession risks loom on the horizon, investors are inclined to avoid IPOs of young companies with high uncertainty.
Micro-Level Analysis of the Company
At the micro level, a meticulous analysis of the company itself is required: financial performance, business model, competitive position, and management quality. Investors must assess whether the company holds sustainable competitive advantages or if its market position is contingent upon transient factors. It is crucial to determine how fair the valuation offered at the IPO is compared to comparable companies and historical medians for the sector.
Information Search and Monitoring
Keeping an eye on the calendar of planned IPOs, studying available roadshow materials, reading analytical overviews, and interpreting book-building results—all contribute to helping an investor make a more informed decision. It is particularly important to compare the offered price with independent fair value assessments often published by investment bank analysts. If the final price turns out to be significantly higher than analysts' estimates, it may signal overvaluation.
Fair Price Evaluation
Understanding the book-building demand formation process and the factors impacting the final price helps an investor evaluate whether they are receiving a fair price or overpaying for a hot trend. Historically, IPO markets often overvalue "hot" offerings, and investors participating in the initial wave frequently encounter price drops in subsequent months. Conversely, dull, conservative offerings often yield better long-term results.
Risk Management
Risk management when participating in IPOs is critical. It is advisable not to concentrate too much of a portfolio in a single offering, to diversify participation across multiple IPOs, to avoid using borrowed funds to engage in offerings, and to have a clear plan for managing positions after trading begins. Many investors set a specific percentage of return they aim to achieve from an IPO (for example, 15-20% within the first year) and lock in profits when that target is met, rather than hoping for larger profits that often do not materialise.
Final Wisdom
Successfully investing in IPOs requires a balance between caution and boldness, between following macro market trends and conducting deep analysis of the specific company. Those investors who can combine these approaches and remain disciplined in their investment decisions often generate results that outperform market averages. The IPO market remains one of the most intriguing and promising segments of capital markets, yet equally one of the riskiest for unprepared participants. Hence, a systematic approach to monitoring, analysis, and decision-making in the realm of IPOs can form the foundation for long-term success in investing.
