Main Topic of the Day: Anthropic Prepares for Historic Listing
The central event of autumn for the venture market remains Anthropic's preparation for its initial public offering. The developer of the Claude model family, which confidentially submitted its S-1 filing to the SEC on June 1, is reportedly meeting with institutional investors and could launch the offering in September or early October. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are managing the book, with Nasdaq as the targeted exchange.
Following its Series H round, the company's private valuation has reached approximately $965 billion, with annual recurring revenue, according to analysts, estimated to be between $47 billion and $80 billion, largely due to its dominance in the AI-coding segment. For the venture industry, this listing will not merely serve as an exit; the multiplier assigned to Anthropic by the public market will set a baseline for evaluating all private AI companies for years to come.
OpenAI Shifts Focus: The Lab Race Moves to 2027
Its main competitor, OpenAI, filed its own S-1 a week later but is leaning towards postponing its listing until 2027. The reasons include market volatility and the leadership’s intention to go public at no less than a $1 trillion valuation. Over the past year, Anthropic surpassed its rival for the first time in both revenue and private valuation, while OpenAI has seen a series of management reshuffles. For investors, this means that the public "AI premium" will be calibrated against Anthropic's debut, while OpenAI will enter the market with several quarters of audited financials.
Record Capital Concentration: Half-Year Figures
Statistics for 2026 are rewriting the entire history of the venture industry. Key metrics are as follows:
- Global venture investments in the first quarter alone reached $300 billion – an absolute record, accounting for 70% of all investments in 2025;
- Investments in startups in the US and Canada totalled $392 billion in the first half of the year;
- Four of the five largest venture rounds in history were closed in 2026: OpenAI ($122 billion), Anthropic ($30 billion), xAI ($20 billion), and Waymo ($16 billion);
- Capital is being distributed among an increasingly narrow circle of companies — growth is driven by enormous rounds rather than an increase in the number of deals.
The market has developed a pronounced "barbell" structure: elite startups are attracting megaraounds, strong early teams are receiving funding quickly and at high valuations, while the middle segment is experiencing a shortage of investor attention.
IPO Window Open: Autumn Sprint After Labour Day
The primary offering market is enjoying its best period in several years: by the end of May, over $34 billion had been raised through IPOs — a 164% increase compared to the previous year. Following the successful debut of SpaceX and a strong year for biotech, investors are anticipating a busy autumn calendar. The defence sector is particularly notable: shares of AI drone manufacturer Swarmer soared by more than 500% on their first day of trading. For venture funds, the open exit window presents an opportunity to realise profits and return capital to partners — a critically important factor following several years of accumulated "drag" from mature portfolio companies.
Defence Technologies: From Niche Bet to Systemically Important Sector
The defence sector has firmly established itself as the second most significant area of the venture market after AI. Key events in recent weeks include:
- Anduril Industries is negotiating a new round at a valuation of around $100 billion — more than three times higher than last year's level; the company's revenue doubled to $2.2 billion in 2025.
- European leader Helsing raised $1.8 billion at an $18 billion valuation — investor demand significantly exceeded the available allocation.
- Global investments in defence and dual-use technologies are ahead of schedule and could exceed $18 billion by the end of the year.
The priority for 2026 has shifted from invention to scaling production: investors are increasingly funding manufacturing capacities rather than solely software platforms.
Deals of the Week: From Generative 3D to Space Launches
The first days of September brought a series of significant rounds reflecting the sectoral diversification of capital:
- Tripo AI, a developer of generative AI 3D models based in San Francisco, closed Series B and B+ rounds amounting to approximately $446 million with participation from a wide pool of Asian and American funds;
- Félix from Miami announced a Series C funding of $200 million with a significant debt component — signalling the growing role of hybrid capital structures;
- German space startup HyImpulse attracted over €50 million in its Series A extension with a backlog of more than €350 million;
- Spanish biotech iPremom secured €15 million in seed funding for its early diagnostics platform for pregnancy complications;
- Tokyo-based PeopleX completed a Series A round of ¥5.45 billion, developing a sovereign AI platform for HR processes.
Beyond AI: Capital Seeks the "Physical World"
A notable trend in recent months is the shift of some venture capital into tangible assets: sports clubs, iconic real estate, consumer goods manufacturing, and energy for data centres. Investors are diversifying their bets, unwilling to rely solely on the dynamics of AI valuations. Sustainable interest remains in climate technologies, longevity biotech, robotics, and fintech — segments where the next generation of unicorns with more predictable unit economics is being formed.
Russia and the CIS: Transformation Amidst a Global Boom
The Russian venture market is moving in counterphase to the global trend: deal volume has decreased by approximately 40%, large late-stage rounds have virtually disappeared, and seed investments have fallen to one-third of their previous levels in both volume and number of deals. Investors have definitively shifted from funding "promising ideas" to stringent requirements on revenue and clear financial models. Projects in AI, corporate software, and fintech are prioritised; however, experts warn of a "demographic gap" in startups that will manifest in 2027–2028 due to the depletion of companies ready for acquisition.
What This Means for Investors: Conclusions and Forecast
The venture market enters autumn 2026 in a state of record activity, but also record risk concentration. Anthropic's debut will set a public benchmark for the entire AI economy: a successful offering could open the floodgates for dozens of listings in 2027, while a weak start could trigger a reevaluation of the entire private AI portfolio. For funds, key orientations remain discipline in valuations, diversification beyond the AI core, attention to defence and infrastructure assets, and readiness to utilise the open IPO window for exits. The market rewards not loud ideas, but proven revenue, cost control, and clear positioning — and this logic will dictate capital allocation in the final quarter of the year.
