Top 7 Token Unlocks (15–21 December 2025) and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

Analytical Review of Major Token Unlocks for the Week of 15–21 December 2025: Market Impact, Risks for Investors, and Key Project Metrics

During the upcoming week from 15 to 21 December 2025, several large projects are planning significant token unlocks, an event that is likely to impact the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. The projects involved include Aster, LayerZero, Arbitrum, Vana, Yooldo Games, STBL, and Merlin Chain. Below is an analysis of each instance, detailing when the unlock will occur, how many tokens will be released (in absolute terms and as a percentage of the total supply), the current valuation of these tokens, and the potential impact of the unlock on price and liquidity. This analysis of cryptocurrencies is invaluable for assessing risks and opportunities, especially for those considering long-term investments in this sector.

For clarity, let us compare the key metrics of all seven projects in the table below:

Aster (ASTER)

Aster is a decentralised derivatives exchange offering spot and perpetual trading of cryptocurrency and stock contracts with leverage up to 1001×. On Wednesday, 17 December 2025, Aster will unlock approximately 78.4 million ASTER (around 0.98% of the total token supply). At the current rate, this equates to approximately $75 million, which adds about 3% to the circulating ASTER supply. Given the project's market capitalisation of several billion dollars, this volume is relatively small. However, if a significant portion of the unlocked coins floods the market immediately, some profit-taking may occur and liquidity on trading platforms could decline. Cryptocurrency investors should monitor the behaviour of large holders; while the unlock volume appears moderate, the Aster market is likely capable of absorbing it without prolonged price pressure.

LayerZero (ZRO)

LayerZero (ZRO) is a cross-chain protocol facilitating secure data and value transfer between different blockchains. On Saturday, 20 December 2025, the project will unlock approximately 24.68 million ZRO (about 2.47% of the total supply), with a total value of roughly $37 million. This represents about 10% of LayerZero’s current market capitalisation, indicating a significant increase in circulating volume. Such an influx of tokens in a medium-cap project might lead to noticeable volatility; short-term holders may sell newly acquired coins, placing downward pressure on the price. However, the timeline of these unlocks was announced in advance, and the market has partially factored this information into pricing. Importantly, LayerZero tokens are distributed among investors and the team according to a schedule – if a significant portion of recipients choose to hold or stake their tokens, the impact of the unlock could be mitigated. Investors should closely monitor the movement of these tokens (for example, transfers to exchanges) in the days following 20 December.

Arbitrum (ARB)

Arbitrum (ARB) is one of the leading Layer-2 solutions for Ethereum (based on optimistic rollup) designed to reduce fees and accelerate transactions on the network. On Tuesday, 16 December 2025, an unlock of approximately 92.63 million ARB is expected – around 0.93% of Arbitrum's total token volume, valued at about $19.8 million. This release constitutes only about 2% of ARB's market capitalisation, which is relatively small. Since its launch in 2023, Arbitrum has already distributed a considerable number of tokens through airdrops and gradual allocations to investors; the current phase is a planned unlock for early investors and the team. With such a modest proportion of new coins, the outlook for cryptocurrencies with this level of issuance is moderate: the ARB market is likely to respond calmly to this event. Strong liquidity and widespread availability of ARB on exchanges should facilitate the market's absorption of the additional supply without issues. However, short-term speculative fluctuations cannot be ruled out; as with any unlocks, market participants should exercise caution in the days surrounding 16 December and observe the behaviour of large ARB holders.

Vana (VANA)

Vana (VANA) is a Layer-1 blockchain focused on maintaining user control over personal data and its monetisation (turning data into tokenised assets). As planned, on Tuesday, 16 December 2025, the project will release tokens VANA valued at approximately $17.4 million – this equates to about 6.12 million VANA, or approximately 5.1% of the total supply. New coins will represent around 20% of Vana's current capitalisation, which means the circulating token volume will increase considerably. Such a significant increase in supply could create substantial price pressure, particularly if holders of the unlocked tokens opt to sell immediately. Conversely, some of these tokens may be earmarked for ecosystem initiatives (such as community rewards or incentivising users), which would reduce the risk of a sudden influx onto the market. For investors considering cryptocurrency investments in the Vana project, it is advisable to prepare for increased volatility: a short-term decrease in price may occur if demand from new buyers does not keep pace with the rising supply. In such cases, it is essential to assess the fundamental indicators of the project – sustained interest in Vana from users and partners could assist in price recovery following the initial supply shock.

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS)

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS) is a multi-chain Web3 gaming platform where users can play games and earn tokens for their activity (play-to-earn), integrating mechanics from both traditional and blockchain games. On Friday, 19 December 2025, Yooldo will unlock approximately 41.91 million ESPORTS tokens (about 4.7% of the total supply). Their cumulative value is estimated at around $17.2 million, equating to approximately 26% of the current circulating token volume – a notably substantial share. Almost a quarter increase in supply at once could significantly impact the market price: if new coins enter exchanges en masse, a price drop may occur due to the supply-demand imbalance. Investors holding ESPORTS have already experienced heightened volatility recently – the Yooldo token has seen double-digit declines in recent days amid anticipation of the unlock and associated speculation. Future dynamics will depend on how actively the unlocked tokens are sold. If the project team or long-term supporters of Yooldo choose to retain a significant portion of the coins to support the ecosystem, the negative effect may be alleviated. However, cryptocurrency investors should remain aware of the risks: without a proportional influx of new players or investors into the Yooldo platform, such a large expansion in supply might depress the token price in the short term.

STBL

STBL is a relatively new decentralised stablecoin protocol aimed at combining transparency, profitability, and backing by real assets (the “Stablecoin 2.0” concept). The project launched its governance token STBL in the autumn of 2025, and is now entering a period of active monthly unlocks. On Tuesday, 16 December 2025, the protocol will release approximately 288.39 million STBL tokens – constituting 2.88% of their overall maximum supply. At current prices, the volume of the unlock is valued at roughly $16.1 million. It is important to highlight that this represents an extremely large increase in supply: it is comparable to about 58% of STBL’s current market capitalisation. In other words, if there are currently, hypothetically, 100 units of value in circulation, an additional 58 will be added. Such a sharp expansion of the circulating supply typically results in significant downward pressure on the token price, especially if the unlocked coins become immediately available for sale. However, the STBL team has informed the market in advance of its unlock schedule and the intended use of the new tokens. A considerable portion of these coins may be designated not for immediate sale but for incentivising liquidity and rewarding participants in the ecosystem (such as stablecoin liquidity providers). Nevertheless, STBL holders should be prepared for spikes in volatility: while the mechanism and cryptocurrency outlook of this protocol undergo market validation, caution is warranted. Monitoring the activity of large addresses (specifically, tracking whether new tokens are directed to exchange accounts) will help to evaluate market sentiment and large players' actions in a timely manner.

Merlin Chain (MERL)

Merlin Chain (MERL) is a blockchain project developing a Bitcoin-native Layer-2: a second-layer network built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain to enhance throughput and introduce smart contracts into the Bitcoin ecosystem. On Friday, 19 December 2025, Merlin Chain will unlock approximately 36.14 million MERL – about 1.72% of the total token supply, valued at around $16.1 million. This volume of new coins represents about 4% of MERL’s current capitalisation – a relatively modest level in the context of the week's unlocks. For Merlin Chain, this is a planned quarterly token distribution to investors and project advisors, occurring amid increasing network activity (the project is garnering attention as a promising L2 platform for Bitcoin). Despite the modest proportion, the sudden influx of an additional 36 million tokens could cause short-term price fluctuations. Should some recipients choose to take profits, sales are likely in the days immediately following the unlock, which could temporarily depress MERL’s price. On the other hand, thanks to the relatively small size of the unlock and positive expectations surrounding Merlin Chain, the market may quickly absorb these tokens. For investors holding MERL, a rational strategy would be to monitor order book conditions and market sentiment: if robust interest in the project remains (particularly from institutional partners testing Bitcoin-L2 solutions), the impact of the unlock could be minimal and short-lived.

Summary and Recommendations for Investors

Throughout the week from 15 to 21 December, several hundred million tokens (in total over half a billion units) will be unlocked across seven different projects. Such events inevitably draw the attention of market participants, as they increase supply and may temporarily depress prices under constant conditions. The final effect depends on the proportion of new tokens in relation to the already circulating supply: large unlocks (such as those from STBL or Yooldo) carry a higher risk of one-time declines, while small proportions (like those from Arbitrum or Merlin Chain) are usually more easily absorbed by the market. Nevertheless, cryptocurrency forecasts surrounding scheduled unlocks must always consider the behaviour of holders: if token recipients prefer to retain them or use them within the ecosystem (staking, liquidity, etc.), the negative impact on price will be limited.

Cryptocurrency investors are advised to plan their strategy ahead of significant unlock dates. This entails:

• Monitoring the token unlock calendar and assessing what portion of the total and circulating supply is entering the market.

• For significant percentages (double digits and above) – considering risk hedging measures or partial profit-taking before the event to avoid falling victim to potential sell-off waves.

• Analysing the project's fundamental indicators: strong projects with active user communities and in-demand products often endure unlocks without long-term damage, whereas weak projects may experience exacerbated downtrends due to the influx of supply.

• Monitoring on-chain data immediately after the unlock. If substantial volumes of new tokens are transferred to exchanges, this is a signal of potential selling pressure; conversely, if tokens remain in wallets or are staked, the market will view this positively.

In conclusion, diversification and disciplined risk management remain the best protections for investors. Unlocks are pre-announced events, and the market often "prices in" their effects ahead of time. However, reactions are not always predictable: the impact of token unlocks can range from neutral to sharply negative in the short term. Based on our analysis, investors should remain vigilant and use such events as opportunities to reassess their positions. Thoughtful planning and timely cryptocurrency analysis can help navigate this influx of new tokens, maintaining a balance between risks and growth potential in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.