Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Market Update as of 18 February 2026: Dynamics of Brent and WTI Oil Prices, Gas and LNG Market in Europe, Refinery Situations and Oil Products, Coal, Electricity, and Renewable Energy. A Comprehensive Overview for Investors and Market Stakeholders in the Energy Sector.
The global commodities and energy sector enters the mid-week phase in a state of risk reassessment: oil prices are languishing near local minima amid expectations of progress in US-Iran negotiations and a simultaneous rise in actual supply from certain producers. The primary intrigue for investors and energy sector participants in the next 24 to 72 hours is the interplay of geopolitical risk premiums in oil, inventory dynamics in the US, and the resilience of demand for oil products against the backdrop of seasonal refinery maintenance in Europe and the reconfiguration of trade flows in Asia.
Oil Market: Price Benchmarks and Drivers
As of Wednesday morning, oil prices have stabilised following a notable decline in the previous session. Brent is trading near $67.65 per barrel, whereas WTI is around $62.52 per barrel. The balance of short-term factors appears mixed:
- Price Pressure: Anticipations of potential easing of restrictions on Iranian supplies following positive news regarding US-Iran dialogue, along with increased production in Kazakhstan.
- Support Factors: Persisting risks of escalation in the Middle East and market sensitivity to any disruptions in maritime logistics.
For trading oil and oil products, it is now more crucial to consider not only headlines but the speed at which "paper expectations" translate into physical barrels: the market reacts to probabilities, yet any repricing will only solidify upon confirmation of export flows and inventory dynamics.
Supply Factors: Kazakhstan, the Middle East, and the Risk Premium
From a supply standpoint, a significant factor is the recovery of output from major fields and the increased export potential of certain countries. Kazakhstan is in focus: the project is expected to reach full capacity in the coming days, adding physical volume to the market and reducing sensitivity to short-term shortages. Concurrently, the negotiation agenda regarding Iran creates an "asymmetric corridor" for oil: any indication of rapprochement in positions may compress the risk premium, but the absence of final agreements maintains the likelihood of price reversals.
For investors, this suggests that under the base scenario, oil remains in range-bound trading, with primary volatility linked to news regarding sanctions architecture, shipping insurance, and tanker fleet availability.
OPEC+: Production Policy and Spring Scenarios
The OPEC+ strategy continues to serve as a "anchor" for market expectations in the oil sector. At this stage, participants are adhering to a cautious approach, considering seasonal demand and the need to balance market share with price stability. For April and the beginning of the second quarter, the key question is how quickly additional supply will return and how commercial inventories in OECD countries will react.
The practical implication for the market is that, given the current configuration of OPEC+ decisions, any unexpected disruptions in production or logistics could short-term spike prices, yet without demand confirmation, growth will be constrained—especially if production outside the cartel also increases.
Asia: Record Imports and Changes in Supplier Structure
On the demand side, Asia remains the primary centre of attraction for barrels. The region is demonstrating very high import volumes, while the structure of suppliers is shifting due to geopolitics, trade agreements, and price discounts. Notably, there is a reorientation of certain flows between Russia, Middle Eastern countries, and the US: logistics and contract terms are becoming as crucial as absolute pricing.
For the global market, this translates into:
- Increased competition for market share in India, accentuating the importance of official sales pricing and premiums/discounts relative to benchmarks.
- Heightened role of China as a stabiliser of demand for oil and oil products, particularly given attractive pricing conditions.
- Greater freight sensitivity: Extended shipping legs are altering the economics of supply and can locally impact Brent-WTI spreads.
Gas and LNG: Europe Maintains Balance, Attention to Stocks and Weather
The European gas market is navigating the latter half of winter significantly more steadily than during crisis periods of previous years: supplies are diversified, the role of LNG has grown, and consumption has structurally declined. The current price benchmark across European hubs hovers around €32 per MWh, reflecting a calmer balance between supply and demand.
Nonetheless, risks persist for the gas and LNG market:
- Weather Volatility and short-term spikes in electricity demand during cold fronts.
- Competition for LNG from Asia amidst rising industrial consumption and recovery in some economies.
- Regulatory decisions on inventory management and storage rules, affecting seasonal procurement.
For energy sector participants, a key indicator in the coming weeks will be the speed of gas withdrawals from storage facilities and replenishment rates amid early spring signals.
Refineries and Oil Products: Supply Risks in Europe and Regional Disbalances
The refining sector remains a source of local tension. Seasonal refinery maintenance in Europe is predictably increasing, which heightens market sensitivity to disruptions and underscores the importance of diesel and other oil product import flows. An additional factor is infrastructure risks: reports of damage to particular facilities due to attacks in Eastern Europe are elevating the premium on supply resilience.
Practically, this leads to several effects:
- Diesel remains the most sensitive product: the balance relies on supplies from the Middle East, India, and transatlantic flows.
- Refinery Margins could be supported by constrained supply, even if oil remains under pressure overall.
- Spreads between oil grades and product cracks are becoming a key signal source for traders and hedgers.
Electricity and Renewable Energy: Rising Demand and Accelerating Capacity Additions
The global electricity market continues to evolve under the influence of two trends: increased end-user demand (including data centres, electrification of transport, and industry) and accelerated renewable energy penetration. In several major economies, the pace of adding solar and wind capacities remains high, reshaping generation profiles and amplifying the importance of grid infrastructure and storage systems.
For energy investors, three areas are crucial:
- Capital programmes for networks and flexibility (storage, demand management, gas peaking generation).
- Regulatory frameworks and capacity markets shaping project returns in the electricity sector.
- Commodity tail: despite the growth of renewables, the role of gas and coal in balancing the system remains essential, particularly during peak hours.
Coal: Prices Strengthen Amid Supply Constraints
The coal market at the beginning of 2026 shows relative resilience: the price benchmark near $117 per tonne reflects a combination of supply constraints and heterogeneous regional demand. Even amidst a long-term trend towards decarbonisation, coal retains its importance as a "safety net" energy source within certain power systems, particularly during weather-induced stress periods and gas restrictions.
Key observations for coal and electricity include:
- Europe supports prices through inventory strategies and reliability requirements for energy supply.
- Asia remains the dominant consumer: demand is contingent on the industrial cycle and hydrology.
- Logistics (railroads, ports, and coal quality) are once again becoming price factors on par with supply-demand balance.
What Investors and Energy Market Participants Should Monitor (24–48 hours)
The coming days are rich with triggers that could shift sentiment regarding oil, gas, and oil products:
- US Inventory Statistics: trends in oil, gasoline, and distillates will set the tone for product cracks and spreads.
- US-Iran News: any concrete steps regarding the parameters of a potential agreement will be instantly reflected in Brent premiums and options volatility.
- Refinery Status in Europe and Eastern Europe: reports of unplanned shutdowns can quickly turn into risks for diesel supply and export flows.
- Gas and LNG: weather forecasts and withdrawal rates from storage in Europe, as well as competition for LNG cargos in Asia.
- Coal: signals regarding the availability of export cargos and freight costs for deliveries to Europe and South Asia.
The outlook as of 18 February 2026 for the global energy sector reflects a balancing market: oil reacts to diplomacy and recovery in production, gas in Europe appears stable due to LNG and decreased consumption, while oil products and refineries create local shortages and premiums, particularly in diesel. Renewables and electricity continue a structural shift, yet coal and gas remain critical elements of energy system reliability. For investors, the optimal strategy is to monitor inventories, news regarding sanctions, and refinery conditions: these factors currently have the quickest impact on price movements throughout the chain—from oil and gas to oil products and electricity.
