Global Lithium Prices Surge Amid Rising Demand for Batteries: Russia Prepares to Launch Its Own Lithium Production by 2026, Targeting 28,000 Tonnes per Annum by 2030 – An Analytical Overview for Investors
Global lithium prices are witnessing a new wave of growth amidst expectations of a rapid increase in demand. In early December, futures for lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou exchange soared to $13,300 per tonne—the highest in the last 18 months. On the London Metal Exchange, contracts for lithium hydroxide exceeded $10,000 per tonne, gaining nearly 6% in just one month. Experts link this resurgence to the prospect of explosive growth in the battery and electric vehicle markets over the coming years.
Analysts predict that global demand for lithium could reach 700,000–900,000 tonnes (measured in pure metal) by 2026—substantially higher than levels seen in the mid-2020s. For comparison, the International Energy Agency estimated global lithium consumption at approximately 220,000 tonnes in 2024. While there is a wide range of forecasts, all agree that the consumption of "white gold" will continue to grow at an accelerated pace. By 2030, annual demand, according to various estimates, could exceed 1–2 million tonnes, reflecting a boom in electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Batteries and Electric Vehicles – The Main Demand Drivers
The rapid rise in lithium usage is primarily driven by advancements in battery technology. Currently, around 80% of all lithium produced goes towards lithium-ion batteries, mainly for electric vehicles. As the global automotive industry transitions to electric power, demand for batteries is expected to scale exponentially. Experts forecast that within the next 3–4 years, the market for "green" batteries could increase by hundreds of percent. By 2028–2030, global electric vehicle production could reach 20–25 million units annually, which will in turn push lithium consumption to unprecedented levels. Most consumption is concentrated in Asia: approximately 90% of lithium raw materials are processed into batteries in China, South Korea, and Japan. These regions, alongside North America, are also leading the expansion of the electric vehicle fleet and energy storage capacities.
Who Extracts Lithium: Global Leaders
The global lithium extraction market is currently dominated by a few countries. Australia is the largest producer, accounting for up to 40% of the world's primary lithium supply. Chile and China are also among the top three producers. China is rapidly increasing its presence in the sector: the country is investing in new deposits both domestically and abroad and controls around 60% of lithium processing capacities. By the first half of 2025, China's share of global production had reached 28%, and analysts estimate that by 2026, China could surpass Australia to become the world's largest lithium supplier, maintaining its leadership at least until the mid-2030s. Other players, such as Zimbabwe and Argentina, are also expanding production. In this race for "white gold," Russia's role has been minimal so far; however, its own extraction efforts could eventually position the country among the key lithium producers.
Russia: Dependence on Lithium Imports
Despite the global excitement surrounding lithium, actual extraction of this metal in Russia remains virtually non-existent. Only small volumes (around several dozen tonnes per year) are extracted as a byproduct at the Malyshevskoye beryllium deposit in the Sverdlovsk region. The majority of the lithium required by the economy is imported. Experts estimate that Russia's current lithium needs are around 1,000–1,500 tonnes per year (measured in pure metal) and are entirely met through imports from Latin America and China. Notably, less than half of this volume is used for battery production within the country; the remainder is consumed in the production of specialty lubricants, heat-resistant ceramics, glass, and other materials.
Such dependence on imported strategic raw materials jeopardizes plans for the development of high-tech sectors. While leading global economies are actively securing control over lithium resources worldwide, Russia is only beginning to catch up on exploiting its own reserves of "the new oil of the 21st century." The country has significant lithium resources—according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, estimated proven reserves amount to approximately 3.5 million tonnes of lithium oxide (equivalent to ~1.6 million tonnes of pure metal). This potential still needs to be transformed into actual production.
Government Strategy: Launching Domestic Lithium Extraction
In 2025, Russian authorities clearly outlined their strategy to eliminate the backlog in the lithium sector. In February, during the "Technologies of the Future" forum, President Vladimir Putin publicly lamented that lithium extraction in the country has yet to be established—despite the available opportunities, production could have begun 10–15 years ago. On November 1, he instructed the government to approve a "road map" for the long-term development of the extraction and production of rare and rare-earth metals (including lithium) within a month. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has been appointed as the responsible party, underscoring the priority of this issue.
Specific targets have also been formulated. According to plans from the Ministry of Natural Resources, by 2030 Russia aims to produce at least 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate annually—equivalent to approximately 28,000 tonnes of pure lithium per year. Achieving such volumes would allow the country to meet its internal needs for lithium and even create an export reserve. The Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates that achieving complete "import independence" in lithium will require around six years—hence, by 2030, the goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in the Russian market using domestically sourced lithium.
Key Lithium Extraction Projects in Russia
To meet these objectives, several investment projects at promising deposits have already been launched or are planned:
- Kolmozerskoye (Murmansk Region) – Russia's largest lithium deposit (approximately 19% of the country's total reserves). It is being developed by a joint venture, "Polar Lithium" (Norilsk Nickel and the mining division of the state corporation "Rosatom"). Ore extraction is slated to begin in 2028, with full production capacity expected by 2030–2031, yielding up to 45,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate and hydroxide annually.
- Polmostundrovskoe (Murmansk Region) – one of the largest lithium deposits in the Kola Peninsula. A development license has been granted to JSC "Halmeck" and PJSC "Krasnoyarsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant" (the "Arctic Lithium" project). Pilot ore extraction commenced in 2023, with plans to increase production, equivalent to 20,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year, by 2026.
- Tastygskoe (Tuva Republic) – a significant lithium deposit (around 600,000 tonnes of lithium oxide). This project is being developed by "Elbrusmetall-Lithium" (part of the state corporation "Rostec"). A license was obtained in 2023, and construction of a road and mining and processing plant is currently underway. The plant is expected to begin producing lithium ore concentrate (accompanied by niobium, tantalum, and tin) by 2027–2028, which will then be processed into lithium carbonate using domestic facilities. The project aims to cover half of the country's internal demand by 2030.
- Kovykta (Irkutsk Region) – an innovative project for extracting lithium from underground brines at the Kovykta gas condensate field. This project is being implemented with the involvement of PJSC "Gazprom" and Irkutsk Oil Company. In 2022–2023, a technology for sorptive lithium extraction was developed, and preparations for an experimental-industrial installation are underway. If technology proves successful, lithium carbonate production from lithium-rich brines in Kovykta is planned to start by the end of the decade.
Prospects: Russia on the Global Lithium Map
The successful implementation of the outlined projects has the potential to fundamentally alter Russia's position in the global lithium industry. By achieving a production level of approximately 28,000 tonnes per year by 2030, the country will enter the ranks of notable lithium producers (for comparison, in 2024, this will exceed Zimbabwe's or Argentina's annual production levels). Such a leap would not only eliminate the domestic market's dependence on imports but also strengthen the resource base for the development of its own high-tech sectors. The country is already building facilities for lithium-ion battery production—for instance, Rosatom's battery cell factory in the Kaliningrad region is expected to commence operations in 2025. Having its raw materials and the full cycle from "ore to battery" will allow Russia to reduce costs and risks in an increasingly critical value chain in electric mobility and energy.
For investors, the formation of the lithium industry in Russia opens new opportunities. Large players—such as Norilsk Nickel, Rosatom, and Gazprom—are involved in extraction projects, indicating serious intentions and support at the highest level. State participation and the strategic nature of these programmes mitigate risks for investors interested in this emerging segment. Undoubtedly, much will depend on the successful launch of production and the ongoing volatility in the global market. Nevertheless, amid the global race for resources in the "green" economy, Russia's determination to secure a worthy place on the global lithium map represents a significant step toward diversifying its resource base and strengthening the country’s technological sovereignty.
