Cryptocurrency news: Wednesday, 29 July 2026 — market waits in suspense for Fed rate decision
The cryptocurrency market enters Wednesday, 29 July 2026, in a state of intense focus: today the US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, which traders describe as the most unpredictable in recent years. On Tuesday, the bitcoin price dipped below $64,000, altcoins lost between 3% and 9%, and the total crypto market capitalisation shrank to $2.17–2.2 trillion. Cryptocurrency news today is driven by one factor — US monetary policy — and investors around the world are reducing risk while awaiting the regulator's verdict.
Key points for Wednesday morning: key crypto market events
- Bitcoin is trading around $63,300–63,700 after falling 2.5–3% in 24 hours; a four-week rally has stalled.
- Ethereum has corrected to $1,870–1,890, giving back some of the gains made early this week when the asset rose more than 4%.
- The FOMC’s two-day meeting concludes today: futures markets now price about a 36% probability of a rate hike, up from 26% a week ago.
- Over the past 24 hours, more than 118,000 traders were liquidated for roughly $438 million — the derivatives market has sharply reduced leverage.
- The Fear and Greed Index remains in “fear” territory, reflecting investor caution.
Bitcoin: consolidation below $64,000 ahead of regulator’s verdict
The leading cryptocurrency closed Monday around $64,800, but selling pressure intensified on Tuesday and the bitcoin price fell to $63,300–63,400. Technical analysts note that the weekend rally predictably reversed after failing to break above $65,800, and liquidity above local highs remains a target for any future upward move.
The context is critical: BTC still trades roughly 48% below its all-time high of about $126,000, set in October 2025. Bitcoin dominance holds near 58% — capital is not rushing into riskier assets, a pattern typical of periods of uncertainty.
Fed meeting: why the 29 July decision is critical for cryptocurrencies
The FOMC meeting results will be announced later today, followed by a press conference with the Fed chair. What makes this moment distinctive is the lack of market consensus: the base case remains a rate hold, but the probability of a hike has risen from 26% to nearly 36% in a week.
Possible scenarios for the crypto market
- Rate hold with dovish rhetoric — the most favourable outcome: inflows to exchange-traded funds could resume and bitcoin may attempt to establish a foothold above $65,000.
- Rate hold with hawkish rhetoric — a neutral-to-negative scenario, with continued sideways movement and elevated volatility.
- Rate hike — a stress scenario: in June, a hawkish shift in the Fed’s projections sent bitcoin down 5.6% in a single day; a repeat hard surprise could trigger a deeper correction.
Historically, when a rate hold is expected, the market reacts less to the decision itself and more to the tone of the accompanying statements — the regulator’s language will set the direction through the rest of the summer.
Ethereum: correction after outperforming growth
Ethereum started the week stronger than the broader market, gaining over 4% and climbing to $1,960, but fell back to $1,870–1,890 on Tuesday. Corporate buyers provide support: major treasury companies continue to accumulate ETH, demonstrating confidence in the second cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects. Spot volume remains a concern: average daily turnover in July has nearly halved compared with June, making the rally vulnerable without confirmation from broad demand.
Flows into cryptocurrency ETFs: mixed dynamics
Exchange-traded funds — a key gauge of institutional demand — showed a mixed picture early in the week:
- Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $11.6 million, though earlier last week outflows reached $240 million in a single day;
- Ethereum funds attracted about $9.2 million — institutions are cautiously adding ETH on dips;
- XRP funds broke a quiet spell: an inflow was recorded for the first time in several weeks, and total inflows into this segment reached $1.5 billion.
Stablecoin capitalisation holds near $300 billion — a significant amount of “dry powder” remains on the sidelines awaiting clarity from the Fed.
Altcoins: XRP, Solana and Hyperliquid under pressure
The altcoin segment declined at an accelerating pace on Tuesday. XRP fell to around $1.05, losing nearly 5% in 24 hours despite the positive fund flows. Solana trades near $73 after dropping 4.7% — while the market awaits the major Alpenglow consensus upgrade, which could become a fundamental catalyst for the network. Hyperliquid was the day’s underperformer among large assets, shedding about 9%. Dogecoin holds near $0.07 with a bearish technical picture.
Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap: current levels
- Bitcoin (BTC) — around $63,400; market cap roughly $1.27–1.3 trillion, dominance ~58%.
- Ethereum (ETH) — around $1,880; market cap roughly $230 billion.
- Tether (USDT) — $1.00; the largest stablecoin in the market.
- BNB — around $567; the asset is declining moderately (-1.1%), acting as a relative safe haven in portfolios.
- XRP — around $1.05; in focus due to the first inflow into dedicated ETFs in weeks.
- USD Coin (USDC) — $1.00; the second systemic stablecoin.
- Solana (SOL) — around $73; the yearly high of $253 remains a distant target.
- TRON (TRX) — around $0.33; the network retains leadership in stablecoin settlements.
- Dogecoin (DOGE) — around $0.07; the largest memecoin holds its place in the top ten.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) — around $54; the most volatile asset in the top ten this week.
Macroeconomics and geopolitics: what else is driving the market
Beyond the Fed, several external factors are influencing cryptocurrency prices. De-escalation between the US and Iran and a halt in mutual strikes lowered oil prices and eased inflation concerns — supporting risk appetite earlier in the week. At the same time, a sell-off in technology and AI stocks, including pressure on Nvidia shares, is testing the crypto market’s resilience: so far bitcoin has shown stability against falling equity indices.
The industry backdrop remains complex: the market is absorbing roughly $900 million in FTX creditor repayments, while the announced closure of two exchanges — BitMEX and BitMart — serves as a reminder of ongoing industry consolidation. In Washington, the Senate postponed consideration of a digital asset regulatory bill, maintaining regulatory uncertainty for the US market.
Outlook: what investors should watch on 29 July
Wednesday promises to be the most volatile day of the week. Investors should focus on three benchmarks:
- Fed decision and rhetoric — the primary catalyst: a dovish tone opens the path to $65,000–66,000 for bitcoin; a hawkish surprise risks testing support at $60,000–62,000;
- Spot ETF flows — a resumption of inflows would confirm the return of institutional demand;
- Derivatives dynamics — after $438 million in liquidations, reduced leverage lowers the risk of cascading sell-offs but also limits upside momentum.
The options market prices in a relatively calm reaction to the regulator’s decision, but history shows that even “predictable” Fed meetings have often produced the sharpest moves for the crypto market. For long-term investors, the current consolidation near $63,000–65,000 represents an accumulation phase ahead of the second-half 2026 trend formation.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are a highly volatile asset class: prices change minute by minute; check current data before making decisions.
