The key figures for 29 July 2026 shaping the agenda
Below are the benchmark indicators around which the current market discussion is structured:
- $510 billion — global venture capital investments in the first half of 2026; Q1 contributed $305 billion, Q2 a further $205 billion across more than 5,000 companies.
- 43% — the combined share of two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, in global venture funding for the half-year (totalling $217 billion).
- Over 70% — the share of artificial intelligence startups in global venture investments during the second quarter, compared with roughly 50% a year earlier.
- $412.7 billion — venture investments in the US over the half-year, of which $355.9 billion (86%) went to AI companies.
- $251 billion — raised through 86 US IPOs since the start of the year, more than five times the total for all of 2025 ($47.4 billion).
- $113 billion — the volume of startup acquisitions valued at $1 billion or more in the second quarter, a record high.
- RUB 5.09 billion — the volume of the Russian venture market for the half-year, down 40% year-on-year against a twofold decline in deal count.
Half-year record: why $510 billion does not mean 'the market is back'
The record volume of venture funding was achieved not through a broadening of the funnel but via a handful of mega-rounds. The number of deals in the first half-year barely increased, and in Asian markets transaction counts fell to multi-year lows despite record sums. In other words, the average ticket size has multiplied while access to capital has narrowed.
Late-stage funding in the second quarter rose by approximately 141% year-on-year. This represents a fundamental shift in venture capital behaviour: capital is flowing not towards expanding a portfolio of new names but toward recapitalising already proven leaders. For fund managers, this implies a more predictable yet less asymmetric return profile; for LPs, it means growing correlation between funds pursuing different strategies.
Capital concentration: the central risk on the agenda
A situation in which two companies absorb 43% of the world's venture capital over six months has no historical precedent. Add to this a geographical imbalance: roughly 88% of all investments in AI startups go to companies headquartered in the United States. Meanwhile, the US share of total global volume in the second quarter declined from 83% to 66–67% — capital is simultaneously concentrating by sector and internationalising by geography.
For investment committees, this creates three practical questions:
- How diversified is a fund's portfolio if the bulk of sector returns are determined by a handful of private companies?
- How should 'second-tier' AI startups be valued when valuation benchmarks are set by rounds of unprecedented scale?
- What will happen to sector-wide multiples if even one of the leaders disappoints the public market?
Late-July deals: where money actually went
The last ten days of July provided a revealing snapshot of venture fund priorities. The most notable funding rounds include:
- Etched — $300 million, Series C, inference chips, led by Sequoia.
- CuspAI — $450 million, Series B, AI for new materials discovery (Kleiner Perkins, NEA).
- Meshy — approximately $400 million, Series B, 3D content generation.
- Glow — $180 million, Series A, cybersecurity (Sequoia, Cyberstarts).
- Cathedral — $160 million, defence cyber-AI (Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia).
- Humanoid — $152 million, Series A at a valuation of $1.35 billion; Europe's first 'unicorn' in humanoid robotics.
- Neo — $100 million on exiting stealth mode, application security in the age of AI agents.
Earlier in July the market witnessed even larger transactions: $1.8 billion for defence-focused Helsing, $1 billion for SambaNova Systems, $800 million for Together AI, $700 million for health-tech platform Neko, and €411 million for fusion energy project Proxima Fusion. The overarching conclusion is that venture capital is funding not so much applications as the 'operating system' of the new economy — computing, energy, security and robotic production systems.
Physical AI, defence and deep tech: a new priority map
Three themes are shaping investment fashion in the second half of 2026. The first is physical AI: models linked to hardware, from construction robots to industrial perception. The second is defence and sovereign technologies, where European startups are for the first time in a decade competing with their US counterparts in terms of cheque size. The third is data centre energy: fusion, geothermal and grid projects are being financed as an infrastructure asset class rather than a venture one.
It is also telling that cybersecurity has become a derivative of the spread of AI agents: investors are funding companies that solve problems created by generative models themselves. This is a persistent 'second-order' pattern and will remain a source of deal flow at least until the end of the year.
IPO window 2026: open, but not for everyone
The primary market is experiencing its strongest comeback since 2021. By the end of July, the US had seen 86 IPOs with a combined volume of $251 billion; global proceeds for the half-year reached $178 billion (+205% year-on-year) across 524 deals. Technology listings averaged 44.5% first-day pops, and the aggregate valuation of companies in the IPO pipeline exceeded $2.1 trillion.
However, the structure of this record is as concentrated as the venture market itself. SpaceX's $85.7 billion listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation accounted for roughly one-third of all funds raised this year. Anthropic filed on 1 June after a $65 billion round, OpenAI confidentially on 8 June at a private valuation of $852 billion. Strava is preparing a listing at around $2.2 billion. Meanwhile, Databricks publicly declined a 2026 IPO in favour of 2027, discussing a private round at a valuation of $165–175 billion compared to $134 billion six months earlier. Canva and Cohere are still seen by the market as 2027 candidates.
M&A and exits: best quarter in five years
For the first time since 2021, exit dynamics have caught up with funding dynamics. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations above $1 billion, and another 24 were acquired for $1 billion or more, totalling $113 billion — a record high. For venture funds, this means an unlocking of DPI: LP distributions are finally returning to levels that enable a full cycle of new fund oversubscription.
Nevertheless, exit quality remains uneven. Large strategic acquisitions are concentrated in AI infrastructure, semiconductors and biotech, while mid-sized classic SaaS is still being exited at a discount to its 2021 round valuations.
Fundraising and dry powder: capital exists, but access is constrained
At the global level, private markets hold approximately $3.9 trillion in unallocated capital, of which roughly $600 billion is directly attributable to venture funds. At the same time, the share of successfully closed funds has fallen to about 57%, compared with 94% in 2020 — LPs have become markedly more selective and prefer proven platforms over new managers.
The practical consequence for the market is that the gap between top-quartile and other funds continues to widen, and emerging managers increasingly access deals through syndicates, SPVs and co-investments with large platforms.
Russia and the CIS: a market in hard selection mode
The Russian venture market is moving in the opposite direction to the global trend. In the first half of 2026, venture investments totalled RUB 5.09 billion — 40% less than a year earlier. Fifty deals were completed, half the number in H1 2025, with an average ticket of RUB 113.2 million. The largest volume of investments went to artificial intelligence and machine learning — the sectoral focus mirrors the global one, but the scale does not.
Industry analysts compare current indicators to levels seen in 2009–2011. The logic of financing has changed structurally: with a high key interest rate, deposits and debt markets compete with venture returns, so investors require startups to demonstrate confirmed revenue, positive unit economics and a clear path to profitability — rather than a 'promising idea'. The main sources of capital remain corporate venture, sector-specific funds and club syndicates.
Conclusions for venture investors and funds
The agenda for 29 July 2026 boils down to four propositions:
- Record ≠ broad market. The aggregated $510 billion masks a narrowing funnel: capital is available to category leaders, not to the average startup.
- Concentration is a risk in itself. Portfolios whose returns depend on a few AI leaders require stress-testing against the scenario of a disappointing debut by one of them.
- The exit window is open, but selective. Companies with valuations of $2–5 billion, sustainable revenue and proximity to profitability have a real chance to use the current IPO cycle.
- Infrastructure bets beat application bets. Computing, energy, security and physical AI offer a more defensive position than applications built on top of someone else's models.
The market has entered a phase where capital abundance coexists with a scarcity of access to it. For venture funds and institutional investors, this means a return to fundamental discipline: quality of selection, valuation discipline and sober liquidity planning — regardless of how impressive the headline figures for the half-year may appear.
