Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, 27 February 2026 — GDP of Switzerland, India and Canada, US PPI, and Reports in Energy and Real Estate
Friday, 27 February 2026, is characterised by 'hard' macro data for global markets: the release of GDP figures from several economies (Switzerland, India, Canada) together with US producer price inflation (PPI) sets the tone for interest rate expectations and investor risk appetite. For the audience in the CIS, the domestic agenda of Russia remains an important factor: the government’s annual report to the State Duma may affect expectations regarding budget policy, infrastructure priorities, and the regulatory environment. On the corporate front, key reports from the energy, real estate, and lending sectors are crucial for assessing the state of demand, capital costs, and margin stability at the end of the reporting season.
Markets and Context: How Growth, Inflation and Rates are Interconnected
The combination of GDP and inflation data serves primarily as a signal for the trajectory of monetary policy. If growth in export-oriented countries and developed economies remains steady while inflationary pressures in the US remain significant, markets may price in a prolonged period of high rates. This typically heightens sensitivity:
- to growth stocks and the technology sector (via discount rates),
- to banks and the financial sector (via the dynamics of the yield curve),
- to commodities and currencies of exporting countries (via global demand and real yields).
Investors will be focused on the reactions of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX indices to surprises in the data, as well as management commentary from companies during their earnings reports.
Economic Calendar: Key Releases (Time — Moscow)
- Switzerland: GDP for Q4 2025 — 11:00.
- Russia: Speech by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at the State Duma with the annual government report — throughout the day (as per parliamentary schedule).
- India: GDP for Q4 2025 — 13:30.
- Canada: GDP for Q4 2025 — 16:30.
- USA: Producer price inflation (PPI) for January — 16:30.
- USA: Chicago PMI for February — 17:45.
Europe: Switzerland and the 'Temperature' of Demand Amidst a Strong Franc
The Swiss GDP for Q4 2025 provides investors with a benchmark for the resilience of domestic demand and the export sector under conditions of a strong currency and changing external circumstances. For European risk, this is important as part of the mosaic concerning growth in the region: strong figures support cyclical sectors, while weak figures increase demand for defensive assets and 'quality' in equities. The indirect impact on Euro Stoxx 50 flows through expectations for the industrial, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors, as well as through a currency channel (euro/franc).
Asia: India's GDP as an Indicator for Commodities and the Global Cycle
The GDP data from India for Q4 2025 is increasingly seen as a barometer for 'new' Asian growth. Strong dynamics typically support expectations for fuel consumption and industrial metals, as well as for demand in services and imports. For investors, this translates to:
- commodity markets (oil, coal, metals),
- stocks of companies sensitive to the global cycle,
- sentiment in emerging markets.
Although the Nikkei 225 is structurally more tied to exports and the yen, the overall backdrop for Asian demand influences expectations for supply chains and volumes of global trade.
North America: Canada's GDP, US PPI and Chicago PMI — Triggers for Rates and the Dollar
Canada’s GDP for Q4 2025 is crucial as a test of the economy's resilience amid high rates and household sensitivity to mortgage costs. For the oil and gas markets, Canada remains a significant player, hence growth data may reflect expectations regarding energy demand.
The key release of the day for global assets is the PPI of the USA. In conjunction with consumer inflation, it helps assess how much pressure on producer costs may translate into prices for end consumers. For the S&P 500 and the entire 'risk-on' environment, two scenarios are important:
- PPI above expectations: rising yields, stronger dollar, pressure on high-multiple stocks and rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, parts of consumer demand).
- PPI below expectations: easing on rates, support for growth stocks and the credit market, potential momentum for cyclical sectors while maintaining business activity resilience.
The Chicago PMI complements the picture: it is important as an indicator of the industrial cycle and supply chains. The combination of 'strong PMI + tough PPI' usually intensifies discussions about a longer period of high rates; 'weak PMI + soft PPI' pushes for a reassessment of rate cut expectations.
Russia and the CIS Market: Government Report as a Factor for Budget and Regulatory Expectations
The Prime Minister's speech in the State Duma is an event that may shift investors' short-term assessments of economic policy priorities. For MOEX and a wide range of investors in the CIS, the focal points will be:
- budgetary guidelines and potential changes in spending priorities (infrastructure, industry, social programmes),
- signals regarding tax and regulatory policies for the corporate sector,
- emphases on import substitution, technological chains, and investment support.
Even without immediate decisions, rhetoric can influence expectations surrounding capital expenditures, state orders, and sensitive sectors including banking, transport, and energy.
Corporate Reports: Prior to Market Open (US and International)
Below are the most notable companies whose reports are scheduled for Friday. For investors, not only the figures are important but also commentary regarding demand, capital costs, and forecasts for 2026.
US: Energy, Real Estate, Lending and Industrial Cycle
- Energy Fuels (UUUU) — focus on uranium/rare earths, sensitivity to long-term contracts and capital expenditures.
- Delek US Holdings (DK) and Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) — refining margins, logistics tariffs, capacity utilisation, and debt load.
- Hawaiian Electric (HE) — tariff structure, network investments, regulatory risks, and financing costs.
- Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) — quality of the loan portfolio, default rates, and funding costs; key indicator for the commercial real estate segment.
- Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO) — occupancy and rates in the hotel segment, dynamics of RevPAR, sensitivity to consumer demand and corporate travel.
- TCP Capital (TCPC) — state of the private credit market, portfolio yields, and default risk.
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) — coal/metallurgical raw materials, price conditions, and export flows.
International Companies: Australia, New Zealand, Canada
- Virgin Australia Holdings — passenger traffic, cost of goods (fuel), yield, and fleet plans.
- Summerset Group Holdings (New Zealand) — real estate and elder care: prices, demand, and cost of capital.
- Savaria (Canada) — revenue dynamics and margins in niche industrial segments.
- Lumine Group (Canada) — profitability, organic growth, and M&A activity.
- IAMGOLD (international listings) — costs, production, and sensitivity to gold prices.
Key Events of the Day: What Could Shift Markets Quickly
- 16:30 Moscow time: simultaneous release of Canadian GDP and US PPI — a moment of maximum volatility for currencies, rates, and indices.
- 17:45 Moscow time: Chicago PMI — confirmation or refutation of the narrative regarding the resilience of US industry.
- Russian Agenda: signals regarding budget and regulation — impact on specific stories in MOEX and business expectations in the CIS.
What Investors Should Focus On
The main task for Friday is to correctly interpret the interplay of 'growth + inflation'. For investors, the most practical checklist looks like this:
- For the US: compare PPI and Chicago PMI with market expectations and assess the reaction of yields — this will set the tone for the S&P 500 and sector rotation.
- For the world: use GDP figures from Switzerland, India, and Canada as a check on the breadth of the global cycle and demand for commodities.
- For Russia: track the themes from the government report — particularly regarding investments, infrastructure, and regulatory changes that could affect the valuation of specific sectors.
- For earnings reports: in energy and real estate, monitor not only profits but also debt load, funding costs, and management forecasts — often more critical than one-off quarterly numbers at the end of a rate cycle.
The final assessment of the day will depend on whether the data confirms the scenario of a soft cooling of inflation without a sharp decline in growth. If it does — markets may have the chance to close the week with a sense of moderate optimism; if not — the likelihood of defensive positioning and increased demand for quality and liquidity may rise.
