Overview of the Economic Agenda and Corporate Reporting for 13 December 2025: Global Markets Pause Ahead of Key Decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB)
Saturday, 13 December 2025, is not marked by significant macroeconomic data releases or corporate financial reporting. Markets have shifted into a waiting mode after a week filled with events, during which investors received new signals regarding inflation and interest rate trajectories. A relative calm prevails on the global stage as market participants digest the results of the latest statistical publications and prepare for upcoming central bank meetings. The focus remains on potential changes in monetary policy in the US, Europe, and Asia, which could set the direction for market movements as the year draws to a close.
Macroeconomics: A Pause Before Central Bank Decisions
The absence of fresh statistics on this weekend creates a macroeconomic pause during which global markets process recent developments. In the US, recent data has confirmed a slowdown in inflation, bolstering hopes for a more accommodative Fed policy. The European economy is sending mixed signals: the final inflation estimate for the Eurozone is close to the target of 2%, which may push the ECB towards a wait-and-see stance. In Asia, attention is focused on signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy and the upcoming monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan. The pause in macro statistics allows investors to assess the overall picture: a deceleration in price growth and moderate economic growth is fostering expectations of softer rhetoric from regulators.
US Markets: Inflation and Expectations from the Fed
American stock indices ended the week without sharp changes, maintaining positions close to recent highs. Strong consumer price data for November – showing a reduction in annual inflation to 3% – has reinforced confidence that price pressures are easing. This, in turn, fuels expectations that at the upcoming Fed meeting (scheduled for next week), the regulator may keep rates unchanged or even hint at possible easing of policy in 2026. Yields on US Treasury bonds have stabilised, while the dollar is exhibiting neutral dynamics – investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach. In the context of declining inflation risks, interest in high-tech sector stocks, sensitive to rates, is on the rise: the Nasdaq has maintained its previously achieved levels, buoyed by positive earnings reports from major IT companies.
Europe: Expectations Ahead of ECB Decisions
European markets are also experiencing a relatively calm end to the week. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is consolidating as market participants await the results of the ECB meeting scheduled for 18-19 December. The deceleration of inflation in several Eurozone countries to around 2% year-on-year alleviates some pressure on the ECB, which may pause interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, economic growth remains fragile, particularly in Germany and Italy’s industrial sectors, bolstering arguments for a cautious approach. Business sentiment in the region has stabilised: leading indicators, such as Germany's business climate index, are showing signs of improvement. Investors in Europe are evaluating export prospects in light of a relatively strong euro and are following budget discussions in the EU, which may influence the banking and industrial sectors.
Asia: Signals from China and Japan
Asian markets are exhibiting a tempered optimism. In China, authorities are preparing for the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where the economic stimulus strategy for the upcoming year will be determined. Chinese markets are anticipating additional supportive measures – such as reduced reserve requirements for banks or fiscal stimuli – to fortify recovery following a period of slowdown. Concurrently, investors are noting the stabilisation of the yuan and a revival in consumer demand ahead of the new year. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is holding its ground, although attention is focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy: next week, the regulator may adjust its yield curve control (YCC) strategy in light of inflation rising above 3%. Any signals from the Bank of Japan regarding a tapering of stimulus measures could provoke volatility in the currency market – the yen is sensitive to changes in monetary policy.
Russia: The Rouble and Expectations for the Bank of Russia's Decision
The Russian market enters the weekend in a stable state. The Moscow Exchange index finished the week with a slight increase, benefitting from favourable conditions in commodity markets and a relative improvement in global investor sentiment. The rouble exhibits moderate volatility, remaining within the range observed over recent weeks, thanks to relatively high oil prices and export revenue sales. Inflation in Russia has slowed to a single-digit level, yet remains above the target benchmark of 4%, which keeps attention on monetary policy. On 19 December, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will meet to discuss the key rate: the regulator is faced with the choice between the necessity to further reduce inflation and supporting the economy. The market is pricing in the maintenance of the current high rate but does not rule out signals for a possible reduction in the first half of 2026 if inflation continues to decline.
Corporate Reports: Season Summaries and Expectations
Saturday traditionally sees no new financial reporting publications, prompting investors to focus on previously released results and assess the overall outcomes of the departing quarterly season. Overall, the corporate earnings season for the third quarter of 2025 is nearing its conclusion globally, with most major companies having already disclosed their performance. In this context, key benchmarks are management’s forecasts for the upcoming year and early signs of the macroeconomic conditions impacting businesses at the end of 2025.
- Oracle (USA): The IT giant exceeded profit and revenue forecasts in the second financial quarter of 2026, reporting growth in its cloud business and successful integration of artificial intelligence solutions. Oracle's shares reacted positively, bolstering sentiment in the US technology sector.
- Adobe (USA): The software developer reported record quarterly revenue in the final quarter of its 2025 fiscal year, driven by strong demand for new AI design and marketing tools. Adobe's management provided an optimistic forecast for 2026, highlighting an expanding customer base, which has strengthened investor confidence in the company's shares.
- Inditex (Europe): The world’s largest fashion retailer (owner of the Zara brand) showed robust sales growth at the start of the winter season. Over the first nine months of 2025, Inditex's revenue rose by approximately 8% on a comparable basis, with the start of the fourth quarter (including Black Friday sales) surpassing analysts’ expectations. This reflects the continued consumer demand in Europe even amid a mixed economic environment.
- Sberbank (Russia): The leading Russian bank demonstrated solid results for the autumn months. Continued growth in the loan portfolio and operating income, combined with the expansion of digital services, allowed Sberbank to maintain high profitability. Investors anticipate an updated dividend policy from the bank and forecasts for 2026, considering the stabilisation of the economy and high interest rates in the domestic market.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
Thus, 13 December 2025 passes relatively calmly, yet a number of crucial questions and markers for future actions lie ahead for investors. Events that could influence sentiment and prices across all markets are forthcoming. This Saturday and the following weekends, market participants should focus on the following points:
- Central Bank Decisions: Next week, the key drivers will be the outcomes of meetings from the Fed (USA), ECB (Eurozone), Bank of Japan, and Bank of Russia. Any changes in rates or regulators’ rhetoric concerning inflation and the economy will directly impact bonds, currencies, and stock indices.
- Macroeconomic Data Early in the Week: Important indicators are expected to be released on Monday and Tuesday – in particular, data on industrial production and retail sales in China for November, as well as retail sales statistics in the USA. These reports will reveal how confidently the largest economies are entering the final quarter of the year and will set the tone for trading ahead of the central bank decisions.
- Commodity Price Dynamics: Oil prices and other commodities remain a critical factor for several markets. Following the recent OPEC+ meeting, oil prices have stabilised at comfortable levels. Investors should monitor any statements from oil producers over the weekend and the subsequent price reactions – volatility in the commodity market will reflect on the currencies of commodity-exporting countries (Russian rouble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone) and oil and gas company stocks.
- Geopolitical and Trade News: In the absence of scheduled events, sudden news – ranging from progress in trade negotiations to geopolitical statements – can significantly impact risk appetite. Throughout the weekend, it is important for investors to remain vigilant regarding news headlines, particularly concerning relations between leading economies, sanctions policies, or major merger and acquisition deals.
The current lull provides an opportunity to reassess strategies and rebalance portfolios ahead of heightened volatility that could be triggered by decisions from the Fed and ECB. Experienced investors are using this period for fundamental analysis and forecasting. Careful observation of the factors mentioned will help respond timely to market changes and effectively prepare for the beginning of the new trading week.
