Current News in Oil and Gas and Energy as of 12 December 2025: Geopolitical Initiatives, Price Balance in Oil and Gas, Growth of Global LNG, Russia’s Pivot to the East, Energy Transition, and Industry Forecasts — Analytical Overview for Investors and Participants in the Fuel and Energy Complex.
The spotlight is on the first signs of a possible easing of the sanctions confrontation surrounding Russian energy, stability in oil and gas prices amid cautious OPEC+ policy and comfortable fuel reserves, as well as the latest developments in global energy. This overview is targeted at investors and participants in the fuel and energy sector, including oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, as well as anyone tracking the dynamics of oil, gas, electricity, and commodity markets.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Curbing Prices
Global oil prices remain relatively stable towards the end of the year: Brent is around $60 per barrel, and WTI is approximately $58. Recent expectations of a dovish turn from the US Federal Reserve have provided a slight boost to quotes, but in general, oil has depreciated by about 15% since the beginning of 2025 amidst concerns of oversupply against moderate demand growth.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintain a cautious approach to production management. At the December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ still holds a significant portion of its capacity in reserve — about 3 million barrels per day — to prevent a price collapse. With Brent around $60, cartel representatives emphasise the priority of market stabilisation over the desire to immediately increase exports, given the expected weakening of demand in the future.
Several key factors influence price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing much slower than in previous years. The increase in 2025 is estimated at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturns and energy efficiency measures following periods of high prices, along with China's industrial slowdown, are limiting demand growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of the year as restrictions eased; however, the threat of market oversupply is now curbing further growth plans. The decision to maintain production cuts in early 2026 signals the coalition's readiness to prevent a surplus: participants may quickly adjust exports if prices fall.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against several oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) are restricting supply and supporting prices. However, no new serious upheavals are currently evident; on the contrary, initial diplomatic initiatives for conflict resolution are emerging, reducing the risk premium. As a result, the oil market remains within a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp jumps.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Increasing Supply
The gas market situation at the end of 2025 is comparatively calm, unlike the frenzy two years ago. The European Union enters winter without signs of gas shortages: underground storage in the EU is over 70% full, significantly higher than the December average. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are hovering around €30 per MWh, which is an order of magnitude lower than the peaks of 2022. The drop in Russian gas volumes is almost fully compensated by record LNG imports from alternative sources – terminals are actively receiving fuel from the USA, Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow due to the commissioning of new capacities. Major export terminals are starting up in the US (for example, Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), solidifying America’s position as a leading supplier. Qatar, as part of its North Field expansion, plans to increase LNG output to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027, securing significant volumes with buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also beginning operations in other regions (Australia, Africa), increasing competition in the liquefied gas market.
Meanwhile, demand for gas is growing at a moderate pace. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased batches to the spot market due to temporary weak consumption. Overall, expanding supply and restrained demand are keeping global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, weather remains a critical factor: in the event of anomalously cold weather or supply disruptions this winter, temporary price spikes may occur, although the base scenario anticipates continued price stability.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Western Stance and Search for Compromise
The standoff between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although by the end of the year, attempts at dialogue have emerged. The G7 and the EU maintain a tough sanctions line: there is an embargo on Russian oil, limits on refined oil product exports, and a price cap, while financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Furthermore, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026 – allies aim to eliminate remaining loopholes and are prepared to intensify pressure if the military conflict persists.
Concurrently, the European Union is taking steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On 10 December, EU ambassadors approved a legislative plan to phase out Russian energy sources by the end of 2027 — halting purchases of natural gas (including LNG) and oil along with petroleum products. This step is referred to by the EU as "the beginning of a new era," which will permanently free Europe’s energy sector from dependence on Russian fuel, cementing the breakup with Russia at a legislative level and stimulating the development of alternative sources — from increasing LNG imports to accelerating the implementation of renewable energy sources (RES). Moscow has reacted critically to the EU's strategy, warning that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will entail rising costs for Europe. Nevertheless, Brussels demonstrates a determination to pay this price in pursuit of geopolitical goals.
According to reports, the US has offered allies a plan for the gradual reintegration of Russia into the global economy following a peaceful resolution — including lifting sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy resources to Europe. However, the EU is cautious towards such initiatives and rules out softening its stance without actual progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia Pivoting to Asian Markets
Facing the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: at the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas from the new "Arctic LNG-2" plant was shipped to China. In autumn, shipments of Russian LNG to China grew at double-digit rates — Beijing is actively increasing fuel purchases at a discount of 30-40%, ignoring Western sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative market and offering China cheap raw materials for its economy.
India also remains among the largest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries have notably increased imports of Russian Urals oil and other grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership has assured partners of their readiness to secure stable volumes of oil and petroleum products for India. Cheap resources from Russia help meet India's rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is striving to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To solidify the eastern pivot, Russia is developing export infrastructure. A new gas pipeline project, "Power of Siberia-2," through Mongolia to China is under discussion, which could substantially increase gas supplies to Asia in the future. Meanwhile, Russia is creating its own tanker fleet to deliver oil to markets in India, China, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Western carriers and insurance services. These measures are intended to make the long-term shift of energy flows to the East irreversible and reduce Russia’s reliance on the European market.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine also affects energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone attack damaged the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not completely stopped, Astana has decided to accelerate diversification. The Kazakh government announced the rerouting of some oil from the Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing supplies through Caspian ports to reduce dependence on routes through Russia.
To enhance energy security, Kazakhstan also plans to build a new oil refinery (NPP) with foreign capital involvement. Expanding domestic production capacities for oil products will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and enhance the resilience of the oil and gas sector against external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalled. At the UN conference COP30 (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a firm plan for phasing out fossil fuels was not accepted — several major oil and gas exporters blocked EU initiatives regarding specific timelines for a phased cessation of production. The final agreement turned out to be a compromise, shifting the focus to financing climate adaptation and general emissions reduction goals without definitive deadlines for quitting oil, gas, and coal.
Despite a lack of clear commitments, leading economies are practically increasing investments in green energy. The year 2025 saw a record influx of new solar and wind power plants in many countries. China, India, the USA, the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources (RES), storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, striving to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, however, there have been retreats from the path of decarbonisation. High natural gas prices in 2025 forced several countries to increase coal consumption for electricity generation to get through the heating season — global coal demand remains high. Experts consider this measure to be temporary. As the share of RES increases and energy storage technologies improve, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources is expected to resume its decline. Thus, the long-term trend towards the transition to clean energy remains, albeit with some delays along the way.
Forecasts: Beginning of 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high stocks and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average price for Brent may drop to the range of $55-60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply alter the price scenario: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, introduction of new sanctions, as well as crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) could trigger significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, the weather remains a defining factor. If the winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel reserves are sufficient, European gas prices are expected to remain low. However, a few weeks of abnormal cold could quickly deplete underground storage and provoke a price surge. Additionally, there could be increased competition between Europe and Asia for LNG if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector in 2026 will have to adapt to new conditions. Diversification of supplies, enhancement of energy efficiency, and implementation of innovations (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will be the cornerstone of business resilience. The outgoing year 2025 has vividly demonstrated the close interconnection between economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will balance between oversupply and the risks of shortages, while the global community and authorities will need to reconcile energy security objectives with climate goals.
