Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for 16 November 2025: G20 Meeting, Japan's Preliminary GDP for Q3, and Concluding Company Reports from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia
Sunday presents a relatively calm agenda for global markets, albeit with a few key focal points. The day’s highlights include the G20 Sherpa meeting in South Africa, where global economic issues and the final agenda for the upcoming leaders' summit are set to be discussed. The Asian session anticipates the release of preliminary GDP data for Japan for the third quarter, which could influence the yen's exchange rate and investor sentiment in the region. In the US and Europe, major macroeconomic releases are absent due to the weekend, thus directing attention to the week’s results and signals from the G20. On the corporate front, the quarterly reporting season is nearing its conclusion: no new reports from S&P 500 or Euro Stoxx 50 blue chips are expected, although some companies from Asia and emerging markets continue to publish results. It is crucial for investors to assess the limited weekend events in the context of overall dynamics: geopolitics and G20 meetings ↔ data from Asia ↔ monetary policy expectations for the upcoming week.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All day – G20: beginning of the final Sherpa meeting ahead of the leaders’ summit (Johannesburg, South Africa, 16-19 November).
- 02:50 (Mon) – Japan: GDP for Q3 (preliminary estimate).
G20: Global Agenda and Policy Coordination
- The final G20 Sherpa meeting aims to finalise the draft communiqué for the summit; key issues include measures to support global growth, reforms to international financial institutions, climate initiatives, and development assistance.
- The political backdrop is complicated: the US has stated that it will not send an official delegation to the forthcoming summit, highlighting divisions within the G20. Nevertheless, other participants are eager to demonstrate unity on key matters – from alleviating the debt burden for developing countries to coordinating energy policies.
- Markets are attuned to any statements from Johannesburg: a G20 consensus on economic stimulus or climate financing could bolster risk appetite, whereas signs of geopolitical tension could heighten demand for safe-haven assets (gold, yen).
Japan: Preliminary GDP Data for Q3
- Japan's economy, which recorded a growth of +0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 (annualised +2.2% year-on-year), is expected to slow down during July–September. Forecasts suggest the first quarterly contraction in one and a half years (around -0.5% to -0.7% quarter-on-quarter), driven by a decline in exports, a slump in residential investment, and a reduction in inventories.
- Importantly, domestic demand remains relatively resilient: household consumption and business capital expenditures are estimated to continue growing moderately. This suggests that the current downturn may be of a one-off nature – for instance, exports may have fallen following an earlier ramp-up in supply before US tariffs, while construction activity has adjusted post-regulatory changes.
- For the markets, GDP data will serve as an indicator of monetary outlook: a deeper decline may strengthen expectations for accommodative policy from the Bank of Japan and weaken the yen, benefitting exporter stocks. Conversely, if the economy unexpectedly escapes contraction or the decline turns out to be minimal, it could enhance confidence in recovery, potentially leading to gains in the Nikkei 225 and a strengthening of the yen.
Corporate Reports: US and Europe
- The US Q3 earnings season is effectively concluded. Most S&P 500 companies have already reported, demonstrating a general recovery in profits after last year’s slump. The weekend means no new reports are forthcoming, prompting investors to digest previously published results. The focus is on overall trends: the retail sector showed resilient consumer demand, technology firms broadly exceeded expectations, and industrial margins have recovered amidst easing inflationary pressures.
- European markets are also experiencing a pause in corporate releases. In the Euro Stoxx 50, the vast majority of issuers have reported quarterly figures, with the overall tone being positively neutral: banks and energy companies benefited from rising interest rates and commodity prices, while the consumer sector faces uneven demand. In the absence of new reports over the weekend, European investors are looking to external signals – the situation in China and the outcomes from the G20 meetings – to assess their potential impact on the prospects of regional exporters.
Corporate Reports: Asia and Russia
- In Asia, individual corporate results continue to be published. In China and other Asian markets, several companies with non-standard financial years or smaller capitalisation are presenting results for July–September during this period. For example, next week investors anticipate financial results from major Chinese retailers and technology firms, which may add volatility to the sector. On the Japanese market, most giant companies reported earlier in November, so no new drivers from reporting are expected on Sunday.
- The Russian market (MOEX) is nearing the end of its reporting season for the first nine months. Key blue chips – banks, oil and gas companies, and metallurgists – reported in the early weeks of November, showing predominantly revenue growth owing to a weak rouble and high prices for export goods. Remaining reports are more sporadic (primarily from medium and small issuers) and do not significantly influence the index. Investors in Russia are shifting focus towards companies' dividend forecasts and operational performance for the fourth quarter, as well as external factors, including oil dynamics and sanctions risks.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: The lack of weekend statistical releases means that the sentiment in European markets will be shaped by global news. On Monday, European investors will assess the outcomes of the G20 meeting and any announcements related to global trade or climate policy. Furthermore, following weak macro data from China (a slowdown in industrial production and retail sales in October), European exporters may face pressure if signs of cooling demand are confirmed.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: The Japanese market enters a new week considering the GDP data and external background. The Nikkei 225 has shown an upward trend in 2025, fuelled by a weak yen and an influx of foreign investment. Attention now shifts to macro indicators: confirmation of GDP contraction may temporarily dampen enthusiasm, especially in the financial and real estate sectors. However, resilient domestic demand and an absence of surprises from the Bank of Japan will support investors. Market sentiment will also be influenced by the upcoming report from the largest US chipmaker (Nvidia) this week – serving as a barometer for technology demand, significant for Japanese export-oriented companies as well.
- MOEX / Russia: The Russian stock market finished the week positively, in part due to stable oil prices and a surge in retail investors. In the absence of external irritants on Sunday, the dynamics of the local market are determined by technical factors and expectations for the new week. The rouble has strengthened in recent days due to tax-related currency sales, which somewhat restrains the Moscow Exchange index, rich with exporters. Nevertheless, strong commodity market conditions and record dividend payouts will continue to sustain interest in Russian securities. Investors should monitor potential announcements from authorities or companies over the weekend, as these may affect the prices of individual stocks on Monday.
End of Day: Points for Investors to Consider
- G20 and Geopolitics: Any agreements or disagreements voiced at the G20 meeting will set the tone for the start of the week. Unity on supporting the global economy and trade will enhance optimism in the markets, while escalating rhetoric between major powers (e.g., the US and China) could conversely increase demand for 'safe havens'.
- Data from Asia: Market reactions to Japan's GDP will be immediate – especially in the currency market. A substantial deviation from the forecast could trigger notable movements in the USD/JPY rate and set the momentum for Asian indices. It is essential for investors to assess the Asian dynamics on Monday morning to adjust their positions ahead of the European session.
- Weekend Liquidity and Risks: With major global exchanges closed on Sunday, this could lead to low liquidity on certain platforms (e.g., the Middle East, where trading occurs) and sharp movements amid unexpected news. It is advisable to keep the portfolio protected: utilise stop orders and hedging strategies, considering potential gaps when trading opens on Monday.
- Starting a New Week: The informational lull over the weekend provides a good opportunity for investors to reassess macro and micro factors. The upcoming week is set to deliver significant events (Federal Reserve minutes, inflation data from Europe, key company reports), so it is prudent to define levels and strategies in advance. A calm Sunday can be utilized for portfolio balancing and preparing for potential volatility.
