Comprehensive Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for 16 November 2025. G20 Meeting, Preliminary GDP for Japan in Q3, and Concluding Company Reports from the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Sunday presents a relatively calm agenda for global markets, albeit with several critical focal points. The highlight of the day is the G20 Sherpa meeting in South Africa, where global economic issues and the final agenda for the upcoming leaders' summit are being discussed. The Asian session is gearing up for the release of preliminary GDP data for Japan for the third quarter, which could influence the yen's exchange rate and investor sentiment in the region. In the US and Europe, no significant macroeconomic releases are forthcoming due to the weekend; therefore, focus shifts to the weekly results and signals from the G20. On the corporate front, the quarterly earnings season is virtually complete: no new reports from S&P 500 or Euro Stoxx 50 blue chips are expected, although isolated companies from Asia and emerging markets continue to release their results. Investors need to assess the limited weekend events in the context of the overall dynamics: geopolitics and G20 meetings ↔ data from Asia ↔ expectations for monetary policy in the upcoming week.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All Day - G20: commencement of the final Sherpa meeting ahead of the leaders' summit (Johannesburg, South Africa, 16–19 November).
- 02:50 (Mon) - Japan: Q3 GDP (preliminary estimate).
G20: Global Agenda and Policy Coordination
- The final G20 Sherpa meeting aims to finalise the draft communique for the summit; the focus is on measures to sustain global growth, reforms of international financial institutions, climate initiatives, and promoting development.
- The political backdrop is complex: the US has announced the absence of an official delegation at the upcoming summit, underscoring divisions within the G20. However, other participants are keen to demonstrate unity on key issues, from debt relief for developing countries to coordination of energy policies.
- Markets are attentive to any statements emerging from Johannesburg: a G20 consensus on stimulating the global economy or climate financing could bolster risk appetite, while signs of geopolitical tensions may intensify demand for safe-haven assets (gold, yen).
Japan: Preliminary Q3 GDP Data
- Japan's economy, which posted a +0.5% q/q increase in Q2 2025 (annualised +2.2% y/y), may have slowed during July–September. Forecasts suggest the first quarterly decline in a year and a half (~–0.5–0.7% q/q), driven by a slump in exports, a decline in housing investment, and reduced inventories.
- Importantly, domestic demand remains relatively resilient: household consumption and business capital expenditures are expected to continue moderate growth. This indicates the current slowdown may be temporary; for instance, exports might have declined after a premature surge in shipments before US tariffs, and construction activity adjusted following regulatory changes.
- For the markets, the GDP data will serve as an indicator of monetary prospects: a deeper contraction could amplify expectations of dovish policy from the Bank of Japan and weaken the yen, supporting shares of exporters. Conversely, if the economy unexpectedly avoided a downturn or the decline was minimal, it would bolster confidence in the recovery, potentially leading to a rise in Nikkei 225 and strengthening of the yen.
Corporate Reports: USA and Europe
- In the US, the Q3 earnings season is effectively complete. The majority of S&P 500 companies have reported, showing a general recovery in profits following last year's decline. The weekend means no new reports are due, so investors are digesting previously released results. Key trends to note: the retail sector demonstrated stable consumer demand, technology companies generally surpassed expectations, and industrial margins have rebounded amidst easing inflationary pressures.
- European markets are also experiencing a pause in corporate releases. In Euro Stoxx 50, the overwhelming majority of issuers have already disclosed quarterly performance, and the overall tone is neutrally positive: banks and energy companies benefitted from rising interest rates and commodity prices, while the consumer sector faces uneven demand. In the absence of new reports, European investors are focusing on external signals—namely the situation in China and the outcomes of the G20 meetings—assessing how they might affect the prospects of regional exporters.
Corporate Reports: Asia and Russia
- In Asia, the publication of individual corporate results continues. In China and other Asian markets, several companies with non-standard financial years or smaller-cap issuers are presenting reports for July–September during this period. For instance, next week, investors anticipate financial results from major Chinese retailers and technology firms, which will add volatility to the sector. On the Japanese market, most major companies have already reported earlier in November, so no new catalysts from earnings are anticipated on Sunday.
- In the Russian market (MOEX), the season of reporting for the first nine months is nearing its conclusion. Key blue chips—banks, oil and gas companies, and metallurgists—reported in early November, generally demonstrating revenue growth owing to a weak rouble and high prices for export goods. The remaining reports are more sporadic (mainly medium and small issuers) and do not significantly impact the index. Investors in Russia are shifting their focus to companies’ forecasts for dividends and operational indicators for the fourth quarter, as well as external factors including oil dynamics and sanctions risks.
Other Regions and Indexes: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: The absence of weekend statistical releases means that European market sentiment will be influenced by global news. On Monday, investors in Europe will evaluate the outcomes of the G20 meeting and any statements regarding global trade or climate policy. Additionally, following weak macro data from China (a slowdown in industrial production and retail sales in October), European exporters may face pressure if signs of diminishing demand are confirmed.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: The Japanese market enters the new week in light of the GDP data and external backdrop. The Nikkei-225 showed an upward trajectory in 2025, supported by a weak yen and inflow of overseas investments. Now, attention shifts to macro indicators: confirmation of a GDP decline could temporarily dampen enthusiasm, particularly in the financial and real estate sectors. However, robust domestic demand and the absence of surprises from the Bank of Japan will support investors. Additionally, market sentiment will be influenced by the upcoming report from the largest US chipmaker (Nvidia) this week—as a barometer for technology demand, which is crucial for Japanese export-oriented companies.
- MOEX / Russia: The Russian stock market closed the week higher, partly due to stable oil prices and increased retail investor participation. In the absence of external catalysts on Sunday, the dynamics of the local market are determined by technical factors and anticipations for the new week. The rouble has strengthened in recent days due to tax-related currency sales, which somewhat restrains the index of the Moscow Exchange, rich in exporters. Still, favourable conditions in commodity markets and record dividend payouts will continue to fuel interest in Russian equities. Investors should monitor possible announcements from authorities or companies over the weekend that could impact the price of individual stocks on Monday.
Daily Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- G20 and Geopolitics: Any agreements or disagreements articulated at the G20 meeting will set the tone for the start of the week. Unity on issues of global economic support and trade will bolster optimism in the markets, whereas escalation of rhetoric between major powers (e.g., the US and China) could, conversely, increase demand for 'safe havens'.
- Data from Asia: Markets' reaction to Japan's GDP will be immediate—especially in the currency market. A significant deviation from forecasts could trigger noticeable movement in the USD/JPY rate and set the momentum for Asian indices. Investors should evaluate the Asian dynamics on Monday morning to adjust their positions ahead of Europe's opening.
- Weekend Liquidity and Risks: On Sunday, major global exchanges are closed, which may lead to low liquidity on certain platforms (e.g., in the Middle East, where trading continues) and sharp movements in the event of unexpected news. It is advisable to keep portfolios protected: employing stop orders and hedging strategies while considering potential gaps when trading opens on Monday.
- Start of the New Week: The information lull of the weekend presents a good opportunity for investors to reassess macro and micro factors. The upcoming week will bring important events (Fed minutes, inflation data in Europe, key reports from individual companies), so now is the time to establish levels and strategies. A calm Sunday can be utilised for portfolio balancing and preparing for potential volatility.
