Economic Events and Corporate Earnings for Monday, 26 January 2026: Durable Goods Orders in the USA, Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany, Earnings from Major Companies in the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia. Analysis for Investors and Review of Global Markets.
The new week begins relatively calmly, yet it presents significant signals for global markets. Investors are focused on US industrial data, particularly on December durable goods orders, which will shed light on the state of the manufacturing sector ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision mid-week. In Europe, the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany is in the spotlight as a barometer of business activity at the start of the year. On the corporate front, the first earnings reports of the season are set to be released: in the US, industrial and financial firms will report, while in Europe, results from a leading airline will stand out. In Asia, trading activity is somewhat reduced due to a public holiday in Australia; however, regional markets continue to respond to global trends. Overall, Monday sets the tone for the week: the absence of significant macroeconomic statistics is offset by keen attention to any signals regarding the trajectory of the economy and corporate profits.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 12:00 – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (January).
- 16:30 – USA: Durable Goods Orders (December).
- 16:30 – USA: Core Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation (December).
- 18:30 – USA: Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index (January).
USA: Durable Goods Orders
- Total Orders Dynamics – a gauge of business investment in fixed assets. An increase in new orders for goods with a lifespan of more than three years (autos, machinery, equipment) signals a revival in the industrial sector and confidence among companies regarding future demand. Conversely, a decline would indicate caution among manufacturers and may heighten concerns over an economic slowdown.
- Core Orders (excluding Transportation and Defence) – reflect trends in private sector capital expenditures. Orders for capital goods excluding defence and aviation are particularly crucial as a leading indicator of business investment. Consistent growth in this metric will support positive GDP expectations for the US in the fourth quarter, while weakness may prompt a revision of forecasts downwards.
- Market Impact – strong order data is likely to bolster the US dollar and increase Treasury yields, indicating economic resilience ahead of the Fed's decision. This may pressure high-tech stocks (sensitive to interest rates) while supporting valuations of industrial companies. Weak statistics, on the other hand, would weaken the dollar and lower yields, enhancing expectations for a dovish policy which could temporarily support equity indices.
Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany
- Business Sentiment – the January Ifo index reflects German companies' assessment of the current situation and expectations for the next six months. This is the first major indicator of the year for the Eurozone economy. An improvement in the index would indicate a recovery in business activity at the start of 2026 following potential stagnation, which would support both European markets and the euro. A fall in the index would serve as a concerning signal regarding demand and investment weakness in the largest economy in the EU.
- Index Components – investors will focus on the sub-indices of the current situation and business expectations. Growth in the expectations component is especially important: optimism among companies regarding the future may indicate a softening of recession risks in Europe. Conversely, if expectations deteriorate, it could heighten defensive sentiments, potentially leading to a drop in the DAX index and an increase in demand for safe-haven assets (bonds, gold).
- Connection to ECB Policy – although the European Central Bank is not expected to decide on this day, the Ifo data indirectly affects ECB rhetoric. An improving business climate would provide hawks with arguments for further tightening measures to curb inflation, whereas a weak index would bolster arguments for a cautious approach. This, in turn, would be reflected in the EUR/USD exchange rate and yields on European bonds.
Earnings: Before US Market Open (BMO)
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) – one of the largest steel producers in the US will report prior to the market opening. Investors will focus on the margins of the metallurgical business and management's outlook for steel demand in 2026. Supply volumes and price dynamics are particularly significant: sales growth amidst steady prices will indicate a recovery in industrial demand. Market participants will also assess the company's comments on raw material and energy costs to understand cost pressures.
Earnings: After US Market Close (AMC)
- Nucor Corporation (NUE) – the largest steelmaker in the USA (S&P 500). The fourth-quarter report will demonstrate the state of the American steel industry. Key metrics include the average selling price of steel products, capacity utilisation, and shipment volumes. Investors are also looking for demand forecasts from the construction and automotive sectors, which are major steel consumers. Strong results from Nucor could be a positive driver for the entire industrial sector, while weak performance may heighten concerns for the manufacturing sector.
- Brown & Brown (BRO) – an insurance broker and consultant. The company's results will reflect the state of the insurance market: growth in commission income and organic premium growth will indicate healthy demand for insurance products from businesses and consumers. Management's comments on property and liability insurance pricing and forecasts for new client acquisition rates are especially important. BRO's data is of interest to investors as an indicator of the financial sector and business activity in small and medium enterprises.
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) – a major commercial insurer (property & casualty insurance). Focus areas include the combined ratio (loss and expense ratio against premiums) and insurance reserve dynamics. An improvement in these metrics reflects underwriting profitability and portfolio stability. Additionally, WRB may comment on loss trends from natural disasters and large claims: a low level of catastrophic payouts will support results. Berkley's report will serve as guidance on the state of the insurance sector and corporate credit risk.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) – an investment trust focused on real estate for life sciences research labs and biotechnology offices. Quarterly results will reveal whether demand for lab space remains high despite the overall weakness in commercial real estate. Investors will assess occupancy rates, rental trends, and plans for new campuses. Strong results from ARE will indicate that the life sciences segment is resilient to macro challenges, while issues with vacancies or falling rents may heighten concerns about office properties.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, the corporate calendar for Monday is sparse with “blue chips.” Focus will be on the report from Ryanair – the largest low-cost carrier in Europe. Financial results from Ryanair for the last quarter of 2025 (Q3 of the company's financial year) will showcase passenger traffic trends, flight load factors, and the impact of fuel prices. A successful report from the carrier will support stocks in the tourism and airline sectors in Europe, signalling a continued recovery in travel. Additionally, a report from Swedish manufacturer Epiroc AB (mining equipment) will provide insights into global investment demand in commodity and infrastructure markets. Overall, European markets at the beginning of the week will respond to the Ifo index and external factors, as major earnings reports in the Euro Stoxx 50 are concentrated in the latter half of the week.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: In Japan, Monday is not marked by the release of significant statistics, with markets tracking global trends. Investors are assessing the moderate slowdown in inflation in the country (December's core CPI eased to approximately 2.4% YoY) and considering how this may impact the Bank of Japan's policy. The earnings season in Tokyo is just gaining momentum: significant releases from high-tech firms and automakers are expected closer to the end of January and early February. At the start of the week, the Nikkei index may move within a limited range as local investors await signals from the Fed and initial results from Japanese exporters.
- MOEX / Russia: The Russian market is entering a relative calm before the annual earnings season. On Monday, large public companies from the MOEX index typically do not release financial results – major reports for 2025 are expected in February and March. Nonetheless, operational data from individual issuers for Q4 may be released (e.g., resource extraction, production metrics), which will locally affect corresponding stocks. The overall mood on the Moscow Exchange on this day will be shaped by global factors – oil price dynamics, sentiment in global markets, and the exchange rate of the rouble. The absence of domestic triggers means that Russian investors will be orientating towards external signals of risk and appetite for emerging markets.
Daily Summary: Key Points for Investors
- Durable Goods in the USA: The report on durable goods orders will be the main trigger of the day. Keep an eye on the core component (capital orders) – robust growth will support the dollar and reinforce expectations of a hawkish Fed tone, while weakness could incite a bond rally and boost the Nasdaq.
- European Economy: The morning Ifo index in Germany will set the tone for trading in the EU. Better-than-expected results will strengthen the euro and shares of cyclical companies in Europe (automotive, banks), while a negative surprise will increase demand for safe-haven assets and may pressure the EUR rate, positively impacting exporters.
- Corporate Earnings: The focus will be on results from industrial leaders and the consumer sector. In the USA, the reports from Steel Dynamics and Nucor will provide guidance for the materials and construction segments: their margins and forecasts will reveal the state of steel demand. In Europe, Ryanair's report will illustrate trends in the tourism sector and consumer spending. Investors must assess whether corporate profits justify high stock valuations or if forecasts should be revised.
- Upcoming Central Bank Meetings: A quiet Monday presents an opportunity to prepare for the volatility expected mid-week. The market is already anticipating decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, followed by data on inflation in Japan and GDP in Europe in subsequent days. Therefore, today can be used by investors for positioning: reassessing hedging, ensuring portfolio diversification, and establishing key risk levels before potential sharp market fluctuations.
