Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Wednesday, 28th January 2026: FOMC Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, and Inflation in Russia and Australia

In-Depth Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for 28 January 2026: FOMC Meeting, Bank of Canada Decision, CPI Releases in Russia and Australia, Bank of Japan Minutes, EIA Weekly Oil Inventory, and Corporate Reports from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

A comprehensive agenda is being formed for global markets on Wednesday. In Asia, attention is drawn to the minutes of the latest Bank of Japan meeting and the launch of the largest airshow, Wings India 2026, in Hyderabad (featuring Boeing, Airbus, and others), reflecting the growth of India's aviation sector. In Australia, inflation data for Q4 is expected to impact the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy outlook. The European session appears relatively calm in macroeconomic terms; however, investors are keeping an eye on corporate reports from major companies in the region, while market conditions will heavily depend on expectations surrounding central bank decisions in North America.

The day's key event will be the Federal Reserve System (FOMC) meeting late in the evening: the outcome of this meeting will shape market participants' sentiments regarding interest rates in the US and future monetary policy. Earlier in the evening, the Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision, setting the tone for other central banks. The energy market is focused on the EIA's weekly oil inventory statistics, which could influence oil prices and commodity currencies. On the corporate front, a slew of financial results from major public companies will be released: from US tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, etc.) to Europe's industrial leaders (ASML, Volvo) and key players in the Asian markets (Advantest, Maruti). Russian investors will assess new inflation statistics and operational figures from X5 Group. Collectively, these factors will determine the dynamics of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and Moscow Exchange indices throughout the day. It is crucial for investors to analyse events in conjunction: central bank decisions ↔ bond yields and dollar exchange rates ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in equity markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)

1. 02:50 — Japan: Release of the minutes from the latest Bank of Japan meeting.
2. 03:30 — Australia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q4 2025.
3. 05:00 — India: Opening of the Wings India 2026 airshow (28–31 January, Hyderabad).
4. 17:45 — Canada: Bank of Canada decision on the key interest rate.
5. 18:30 — Canada: Press conference by the Governor of the Bank of Canada following the meeting.
6. 18:30 — USA: Weekly commercial oil inventories (EIA).
7. 19:00 — Russia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 (preliminary data).
8. 22:00 — USA: Federal Reserve decision on the interest rate (FOMC meeting outcomes).
9. 22:30 — USA: Federal Reserve press conference (Governor Jerome Powell on the economy and monetary policy).

Federal Reserve: Interest Rate Decision

• Monetary Policy: Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate after a cycle of tightening. The key focus will be on whether the FOMC signals a potential shift in direction in the coming months. Any hint towards an imminent rate cut may stimulate a rise in equities and weaken the dollar, while any statements reinforcing a hawkish stance against inflation could heighten Treasury yields and pressure high-risk assets.
• Forecasts and Rhetoric: Investors will closely analyse the accompanying statement and tone of Jerome Powell's comments. Assessments of the US economy's state—such as a stable labour market and inflation near target levels—might allow the Federal Reserve to pause or conclude its rate hike cycle. However, if the regulator expresses concerns over persistent inflationary pressures, it may indicate a prolonged period of high rates without easing.
• Market Reaction: The Federal Reserve's decision and rhetoric at the press conference typically induce heightened volatility. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq may react sharply to any changes in rate forecasts, particularly the technology sector. The US dollar and prices of gold and oil will also directly depend on signals from the Federal Reserve, as these affect global liquidity and risk appetite.

Bank of Canada: Rate Expectations

• Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada will announce its key rate decision amid stabilising inflation around the target of 2%. Most analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged, considering the slowdown in the Canadian economy at the end of 2025. Nonetheless, an unexpected rate change would surprise the markets, directly impacting the Canadian dollar (CAD) exchange rate and the performance of the TSX index on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
• Regulator's Commentary: At the press conference, the Governor of the Bank of Canada will provide an updated view on inflation risks and the state of the economy. Investors will assess whether the rhetoric indicates the possibility of future rate cuts in 2026. Any mentions of price stability in commodities (critical for the Canadian economy) and the housing market will influence expectations for monetary policy. The alignment or divergence of the Bank of Canada’s approach with that of the US Federal Reserve could set the tone for currency pair movements (USD/CAD) and the overall sentiment of global investors.

Inflation in Australia and Russia

• Australia (CPI): The consumer inflation data for Q4 2025 will reflect the pace of price increases in the Australian economy. Particular attention will be paid to the core CPI index: a sustained slowdown in core inflation could reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will refrain from further rate hikes or move towards easing. In the context of a slowing Chinese economy (Australia’s key trading partner) and falling commodity prices, a weak CPI may bolster "dovish" sentiments, while an unexpected rise in inflation could increase Australian bond yields and strengthen the AUD.
• Russia (Price Index): Rosstat will publish fresh data on consumer prices, providing insights into inflation dynamics towards the end of 2025. In previous months, inflation in Russia accelerated amid a weakening ruble and budgetary stimulus, prompting the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate. If December data shows a deceleration in price growth, it could relieve pressure on the regulator regarding further tightening. However, high inflation (significantly above the target of 4%) will maintain expectations for a sustained high key interest rate in Russia. The market's response to OFZs (federal loan bonds) and the ruble's exchange rate will depend on whether the statistics meet forecasts or present surprises.

Oil and Commodities: EIA Inventory Report

• US Oil Inventories: The weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on crude oil and petroleum product inventories in the US typically releases on Wednesdays and serves as an indicator of supply and demand balance in the world’s largest fuel market. If data shows a significant reduction in commercial oil inventories, this may signal resilient demand or limited supply, supporting the rise in Brent and WTI oil prices. Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories could weaken oil prices, particularly affecting the stock prices of energy sector companies and commodity-dependent currencies (including the Russian ruble and Canadian dollar).
• Commodity Price Dynamics: Besides inventories, investors are monitoring the overall trend in commodities markets. Oil prices at the end of January are trading amid a combination of factors: geopolitics, OPEC+ production agreements, and prospects for global demand. Fluctuations in oil prices affect inflation expectations worldwide. Prices of industrial metals and gold are also under scrutiny: expectations of a dovish Fed could support precious metals, while robust economic data from China typically fuel growth in industrial metals.

USA: Earnings Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Others

• Microsoft (MSFT): One of the leaders in the S&P 500 will present its financial results for October–December 2025. Investors expect revenue growth amid persistent demand for Azure cloud services and AI products. Special attention will be on management’s comments regarding the business outlook for artificial intelligence and enterprise software. A strong report from Microsoft could bolster the entire US tech sector, whereas weak figures might trigger a sell-off in growth stocks.
• Meta Platforms (META): The parent company of Facebook and Instagram will report its results for Q4 2025, including the holiday advertising season. The market anticipates a recovery in advertising revenue growth, thanks to enhanced monetization of Reels and a stable audience. Cost considerations for metaverse and AI projects will also be in focus—investors are looking for signs of improved profitability after earlier cost-cutting measures. Meta's results will set the tone for the entire NASDAQ, particularly in the internet segment.
• Tesla (TSLA): The largest electric vehicle manufacturer will publish its financial figures for Q4, including delivery data for the entire year of 2025. Investors are focused on Tesla's operating margin—whether the company has managed to maintain profitability amid heightened competition and rising raw material costs. Markets also await updates on the production of new models (e.g., Cybertruck) and demand forecasts for 2026. Tesla's stock movement post-report could significantly influence the Nasdaq index and sentiment around the automotive sector.
• IBM (IBM): The conservative technology giant will report its income for the last quarter of 2025. Investors will examine the results of the cloud solutions and software divisions, as well as the performance of the new business segment following its restructuring (spinning off the services division as a separate firm, Kyndryl). Steady profit and revenue growth at IBM would signal positive momentum for "old" IT companies, while weak segments (e.g., consulting or mainframes) could raise concerns about demand from corporate clients.
• Starbucks (SBUX): The world's largest coffee chain will publish results for the first financial quarter of 2026 (October–December 2025). The focus will be on comparable sales (like-for-like) in the US and China: a recovery in consumer activity in China following the lifting of COVID restrictions could significantly boost revenues in Asia, while in the US, investors are interested in demand sustainability amid high interest rates. Starbucks’ profitability and loyalty program dynamics will also be centre stage for analysts. The results of SBUX will help assess the state of the consumer sector and trends in the hospitality industry.

Europe: Reports from ASML, Volvo, and Other Companies

• ASML Holding (ASML): The Dutch manufacturer of chip equipment, one of the largest companies in the Euro Stoxx 50, will report its Q4 2025 results. ASML's performances are seen as a barometer for the semiconductor industry in Europe and globally. Investors await data on new orders for lithography systems, especially amid potential demand declines from chipmakers in China and Taiwan. ASML's management forecasts for 2026 (particularly concerning demand for advanced EUV scanners) will impact the entire technological sector of European markets.
• AB Volvo (VOLV): The Swedish truck and equipment manufacturer will present its financial results for Q4. Volvo's performance is of interest as an indicator of global industrial activity: order volumes for trucks in Europe, North America, and Asia will reflect the state of the transportation and construction sectors. Marginality will also be in focus—whether the company has managed to pass on rising costs (for raw materials, energy, and labour) to equipment prices. Steady results from Volvo would support shares in the industrial sector of Europe, while signs of demand slowdown could prompt investor caution.
• Lonza Group (LONN): The Swiss chemical-pharmaceutical company, specialising in producing ingredients and services for biotech, will disclose its Q4 2025 results. Lonza is a key contractor for numerous pharmaceutical firms, thus its revenue and order dynamics reflect trends in developing new medications and vaccines. Investors are anticipating updates on margins, as high energy costs in Europe could impact profitability. Lonza's results will signal the condition of the pharmaceutical sector and the level of investment activity in biotechnology.
• Other European Companies: Various other companies in Europe will also release their reports on Wednesday, representing different sectors. These include Royal KPN (Netherlands, telecommunications), Tele2 (Sweden, communication), online broker Nordnet (Sweden), and steel company SSAB (Sweden). While these firms are not among the largest by market capitalisation, their results contribute to the overall picture of the telecommunications sector, fintech services, and industry in the European region. The local market reaction to their reports will depend on whether companies exceed analysts' forecasts or encounter growth slowdowns.

Asia: Reports from Advantest, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro

• Advantest (6857.T): The Japanese manufacturer of semiconductor testing equipment will present its results for the third quarter of the 2025 financial year. The company is a notable component of the Nikkei 225, and its report will help assess the state of the global chip supply chain. A growing order portfolio from chip manufacturers (for example, in Taiwan and the US) will indicate a revival in the industry, while weak sales will signal an ongoing inventory correction in the sector. Investors will also be interested in Advantest's comments on demand for testing equipment for new chips in the context of developing AI and 5G technologies.
• Larsen & Toubro (LT.NS): The largest Indian engineering and construction conglomerate will announce its financial results for the quarter. L&T metrics serve as a barometer for investment activity in India's infrastructure and industrial sectors. Increased profits and order portfolios, supported by governmental projects and private investments, would confirm acceleration in the country’s economic development. Particular attention will be paid to project margins and the situation in the energy division. Strong results from L&T could support growth in the Indian Nifty 50 index and bolster confidence among foreign investors in the Indian market.
• Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI): India's largest car manufacturer, controlling about half of the local automotive market, will publish its report for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. Investors will assess vehicle sales performance amid rising interest rates and competition from foreign brands. Key metrics will include export figures and market share of new models, alongside management's comments on supply chain conditions (chip shortages) and plans for electric vehicles. Maruti's results will reflect sentiment in the Asian automotive sector and signal consumer demand in emerging markets.

Russia: X5 Group and Corporate Results of the Day

• X5 Group (FIVE): The leading retail network in Russia (brands “Pятёрочка”, “Перекрёсток”, etc.) will present its operational results for 2025. Investors are interested in comparable sales (LFL) dynamics in the food segment against the backdrop of double-digit food inflation and changing consumer behaviour. Overall revenue growth is expected due to the opening of new stores and the development of online delivery; however, growth rates may slow compared to the peak of post-pandemic recovery. X5 may also provide preliminary profit or margin estimates, which will allow assessing the impact of cost inflation (wages, logistics) on retail. As a blue-chip stock in the Moscow Exchange index, X5 has the potential to influence the sentiment of the Russian equity market, especially in the consumer goods sector.
• Other Corporate Events in Russia: In addition to X5, operational results for 2025 will also be published by the relatively new public men’s clothing retailer Henderson Fashion Group (HNFG). Though Henderson's business scale is smaller than X5's, its metrics are of interest in the context of recovering demand in the non-food retail and fashion segment in Russia. Additionally, investors in the Russian market continue to monitor external factors—decisions from the US Federal Reserve and oil prices, which may outweigh the impact of local reports. Alongside inflation data in Russia, these corporate news updates will help shape expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the overall economic situation.

End of Day: What Investors Should Observe

• 1) Central Bank Decisions (FOMC and Bank of Canada): will set the global "tone" for markets. Dovish signals will support stocks and bonds, while hawkish rhetoric will heighten volatility, especially in currency and commodity segments.
• 2) Inflation Data: will show the trajectory of prices in different parts of the world. Low CPI in Australia and decelerating inflation in Russia will be positive for local markets, while unexpected increases will strengthen expectations for tight regulatory policies.
• 3) Corporate Earnings Reports from Giants: The results from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and other leaders will direct the path for the tech sector and Wall Street indices. Key companies in Europe and Asia (ASML, Volvo, Advantest, etc.) will provide signals regarding their sectors. Surprises in reports may lead to acute movements in individual stocks and sectors.
• 4) Oil Market: The reaction of oil prices to EIA statistics will impact oil and gas companies and oil-dependent economies. Investors should understand whether changes in inventories are a short-term fluctuation or part of a more stable demand/supply trend.
• 5) Geopolitics and Other Factors: Alongside scheduled events, the backdrop of geopolitical risks and news may unexpectedly adjust market sentiments. Market participants should remain flexible: the combination of macro data, regulator decisions, and corporate results creates a complex picture, necessitating a balanced approach to risks and assets.