Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Tuesday, 30 December 2025: Russia's PMI, Fed Minutes, US Case-Shiller Index, Oil, and Global Markets - An Investor Overview
Financial markets at the year's end remain sensitive to macroeconomic news and corporate releases. On Tuesday, the focus shifts to the Russian economy and monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia will set exchange rates for the New Year holidays), as well as foreign statistical data: Russia's Services PMI and Composite PMI (12:00 MSK), the S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index in the US (17:00 MSK), and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting (22:00 MSK). Additionally, markets will await the API report on US oil inventories (00:30 MSK on 1 January). The corporate narrative of the day will be supplemented by reports from select companies, while the year-end reporting calendar is nearly empty.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 09:00 — Russia: Services PMI (December) and Composite PMI (December).
- 17:00 — USA: S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index (October).
- 22:00 — USA: Release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting.
- 00:30 (1 January) — USA: API report on crude oil inventories (for the week).
Central Bank of Russia: Exchange Rates
On the last working day of the year, the Bank of Russia will set exchange rates that will remain in effect for the entire holiday week. A meeting is scheduled for 30 December, at which the Central Bank will establish the official rates for the dollar, euro, and yuan for the period from 31 December 2025 to 12 January 2026. This step ensures relative stability for the rouble during the holidays, shifting major risks to global factors: oil price dynamics and external economic conditions.
Russia's Services PMI Index
The publication of the Services PMI and Composite PMI will provide insights into the current state of the Russian economy. Preliminary data indicates a slowdown, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.1 in December (indicating a contraction). If the adverse trend in manufacturing persists, the services sector may show only weak growth or stagnation. Investors will closely monitor these indicators: a rebound in the services sector typically supports the equity market and the rouble, while a prolonged downturn may increase pressure on corporate earnings.
US Housing Price Index (Case-Shiller)
At 17:00 MSK, October figures for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller housing price index will be released. A continuation of the slowdown in growth is anticipated, with an annual increase predicted at around +1.1% (consistent with last month). In September, the index showed +1.6% (forecast +1.4%), while in October it is expected to be approximately +1.1% year-on-year. The deceleration in housing price growth alleviates mortgage burdens and reduces inflationary pressure. For the markets, this serves as a signal: moderate growth in real estate facilitates monetary easing and supports demand in other sectors of the economy.
FOMC Minutes
At 22:00 MSK, the minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be published. Analysts expect the confirmation of a plan for gradual rate reductions in 2026. Key will be the text regarding inflation prospects and timelines for easing. Market participants intend to scrutinise the minutes for new insights into the pace of tightening or easing policies. Market reactions could be active: any significant comments concerning inflation and employment will influence the dollar's dynamics and bond yields.
Oil Inventories (API)
The API report on oil inventories (00:30 MSK) often sets the short-term price dynamics for oil. According to API data, for the week ending 19 December, US oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels after a drop of 9.3 million the previous week. A rise in inventories indicates a slowdown in demand. Investors will closely compare these figures with the official EIA report: additional inventory accumulation may lower oil prices, whereas an unexpected decrease could support prices. Long-term trends are influenced by OPEC+ decisions and global demand, hence any signals in the commodity market should be considered in trading strategies.
Corporate Reporting
- USA – OBOOK Holdings (OWLS) – a subsidiary of OwlTing (blockchain platform). After market close on 30 December, OBOOK will publish financial results for the first half of 2025 and conduct a conference call (17:00 Eastern). Investors will assess the company's revenue and profitability against global trends in the technology sector.
- Asia (Hong Kong) – Global Strategic Group Limited (8590.HK) and Capital VC Ltd (2324.HK) will release their annual reports. These companies operate in electronics and finance. Their results may provide insights into the state of Hong Kong's technology and financial sectors, but the influence on global indices is limited.
- Europe – Due to the Christmas holidays, the corporate calendar is empty. Major European companies have already reported earlier or will do so in January, thus there are no significant surprises expected in reporting.
- Russia – There are virtually no reports on Tuesday: major issuers have already reported and are preparing for the annual period. The focus is primarily on dividend and operational news, and key indices react to macro data and external factors.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): calm prevails on European exchanges. There is a paucity of fresh economic data and trading is subdued. Investors are looking at global factors (currency rates, oil, events in Asia), while local factors (Eurozone GDP, ECB) have taken a back seat.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): the Japanese market may be partially closed or operating on a shortened schedule due to the holidays. Attention is largely on external trends: the yen’s exchange rate and commodity prices. Domestic releases are not significant during this short trading day.
- Russia (MOEX): activity on the Moscow Exchange is minimal. The focus remains on oil and the Central Bank of Russia's policy (fixed rates). Energy companies are sensitive to rising oil prices, while the financial sector reflects seasonal conservatism in banking operations.
End of Day: Key Takeaways for Investors
- Fed and Inflation: Case-Shiller and FOMC minutes will clarify the picture regarding inflation and interest rates. Low growth in housing prices (October +1.1% YoY) reduces inflationary pressures, allowing the Fed to ease policy in 2026.
- Rouble and Central Bank of Russia: fixed exchange rates until 13 January eliminate short-term currency risks. The focus is on oil prices: their increase supports the rouble and shares of oil companies, while a decline in oil could weaken the national currency and budget pressure.
- Commodities: API and EIA reports on oil inventories may cause short-term fluctuations. Disappointing inventory data could pull prices down, while a decrease in supplies may unexpectedly raise oil prices. It is also essential to consider news regarding precious metals (e.g., silver exports from China) – they could provide additional momentum for commodity markets.
- Liquidity: the year-end is characterised by low trading activity. Even small news can lead to significant volatility. Investors should exercise caution, diversify their portfolios, and consider the risk of sudden movements as the year closes.
