Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy for Tuesday, 30 December 2025. Oil, gas, electricity, renewable energy sources, coal, petroleum products, and key events in the global energy sector for investors and market participants.
By the end of 2025, the global energy sector finds itself at a crossroads of diverging trends. The oil market continues to experience pressure from oversupply and moderate demand, limiting price growth and leading to potential declines in quotations in 2026. In the gas sector, European countries have filled underground storage facilities almost to capacity ahead of winter, stabilising prices, while the expansion of LNG projects is set to inject new momentum into the market next year. At the same time, a surge in investments in renewable energy is shifting the balance of demand — wind and solar generation are hitting new records, while global coal consumption remains significant, particularly in Asia. Global politics, including increasing sanction pressures and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, contributes to high uncertainty in commodity markets, as major importers (China, India) actively ramp up energy resource purchases, ensuring global demand. Thus, the themes of oil oversupply and a transition to "clean" energy sources remain key for investors and stakeholders across the global energy sector.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand
The trend of oversaturation persists in the global oil market. Recent OPEC+ decisions (made in November) maintain production quotas at previous levels; however, since spring 2025, the alliance has already increased production volumes by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, attempting to regain market share. The increase in supply occurs against the backdrop of modest demand growth — the IEA estimates global oil consumption growth for 2025 at less than +0.7 million barrels per day, significantly below previous years' figures. As a result, the long-term balance is shifting towards oversupply.
- OPEC+ Output Increase. Most OPEC+ members have maintained or increased production at the year's end. It is expected that the absence of new cuts will lead to further growth in global oil and petroleum product inventories.
- Slowing Demand. Global economic slowdown and the effects of last year's high prices are constraining oil demand. Concurrently, the shift to electric vehicles is accelerating, and energy efficiency is improving, which lowers consumption growth rates.
- Geopolitical Factors. Increased sanctions against Russia (including new US restrictions on the Russian oil sector) partially limit hydrocarbon exports and result in brief price spikes. At the same time, the stagnation of peace negotiations between the US and Russia maintains uncertainty. The conflict in Ukraine continues to create disruption risks and influences investment sentiment.
As a result, Brent oil steadies around $60–62 per barrel (average for December 2025), approximately 15–20% lower than a year ago. Many analysts predict further price declines: if current trends continue, the average Brent price in 2026 could be around $55–60 per barrel. Diesel fuel remains a scarce commodity; due to attacks on refineries and export restrictions on Russian petroleum products, diesel futures in Europe have shown a steady increase in margins, although the overall surplus of crude oil hinders significant price increases of the fuel.
Gas Market: High Stocks and Supply Diversification
The European gas sector is preparing for winter with record inventories. By the end of December, underground storage facilities on the continent are filled to 85–90% capacity, significantly exceeding average levels of previous years. This has been made possible by unprecedented LNG imports, compensating for reduced transit from Russia. As a result, spot prices in Europe have remained moderate: TTF futures are hovering around €30/MWh (≈ $9–10 per 1,000 m³), which is substantially lower than peaks seen during 2022–2024.
- Confident Growth in LNG Supplies. Amid geopolitical risks, Europe is diversifying its supply sources: the USA and the Persian Gulf have increased LNG exports, and Azerbaijan is ramping up throughput via the "Southern Corridor." Collectively, these measures have facilitated storage filling and mitigated winter demand.
- Price Stability. Due to high stocks and moderate demand, gas prices in Europe have remained lower than last year. The reduction in risk premiums is connected to hopes for diplomatic breakthroughs (a possible peace treaty regarding Ukraine), alleviating the geopolitical component.
- Diverse Trends in Asia and the USA. In Asia, LNG prices have fallen to multi-week lows (around $10–11/MMBtu), facilitated by record global LNG terminal congestion and slowing industrial demand in China and South Korea. In contrast, prices in the USA have remained above $4/MMBtu due to colder weather and record LNG exports, providing additional demand.
Thus, the gas market remains balanced: Europe approaches winter with a reliable supply, and strong exports from the USA support global demand. However, the upcoming "LNG boom" (planned 50% export growth by 2030) promises to intensify competition and dilute producer margins in the following years.
Renewable Energy and the Electricity Sector
The year 2025 witnessed a significant breakthrough in the "green" energy sector. By the end of the first half of the year, the combined output of wind and solar energy globally surpassed that of coal-fired power plants for the first time. This shift occurred due to substantial expansion in solar generation (growing by ~30% compared to the first half of 2024) and a moderate yet steady increase in wind energy. Major markets — China, India, and the USA — are setting records for the installation of renewable energy capacity.
- Record Growth in Renewables. China has added more renewable energy generation to its grids than the rest of the world combined, which, alongside India, has led to a reduction in fossil fuel share in their energy balance. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts more than a two-fold increase in net generation by 2030, with solar panels dominating the share.
- Declining Role of Coal. Despite the influx of renewables, demand for coal remains high in Asian countries (India, China), which currently restrains a global decline in consumption. However, in the USA and Europe, the share of coal generation is decreasing: fluctuations in weather recently led to a temporary rise in gas and coal, but the long-term trend towards decline is expected to persist.
- Innovations in Energy. Oil and gas companies are actively developing low-carbon projects. Notable examples include TotalEnergies' plans to build a synthetic methane production facility in the USA (in partnership with Japanese firms) and projects focused on "green" hydrogen (Sinopec in China, investments in billions of dollars). Large-scale energy storage projects are emerging, and the network of electric charging stations is expanding, supporting the electrification of transport.
The electricity and renewable energy sector anticipates rapid growth in demand: global electricity demand volumes are increasing by 4% annually due to the expansion of data centres and infrastructure. In the coming months, countries will balance between the speed of the "green" transition and ensuring energy security, but the ongoing trend of expanding solar and wind capacities inevitably limits the long-term growth of hydrocarbon demand.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Remains
Despite the influx of renewable energy, global coal consumption remains considerable, particularly in developing regions. China and India — the leading consumers of coal — continue to use it intensively for electricity generation. In the USA, coal production has seen an increase by the end of 2025 due to rising gas prices and electricity consumption.
- Stabilisation of Production. Major coal exporters (Australia, Indonesia, Russia) are maintaining high production levels. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the global coal market is currently characterised by moderate prices and adequate liquidity.
- Imports in China and India. In 2025, China's coal imports fell by nearly 20% compared to the previous year due to rising domestic capabilities and stockpiling (price factors). Conversely, demand in India continues to rise, stimulating purchases and investments in the coal sector.
- The Role of Transitional Fuel. For now, coal remains a cornerstone of the energy balance for many countries. However, as the share of coal generation decreases in developed economies and cheaper energy alternatives emerge, it is losing some demand. Environmental regulations and competition from gas and renewables provide ongoing support.
Consequently, the coal market continues to receive support from Asian demand, but long-term prospects remain questionable due to the energy transition. Investors are monitoring the balance of supply and demand: currently, Chinese prices have stabilised at low levels, which is curtailing import volumes.
Geopolitics and Energy Security
International politics continue to exert a strong influence on energy markets. The tightening of Western sanctions against Russia targets the oil and gas sector: by the end of December, the USA imposed additional restrictions on the largest Russian oil companies. Moscow has announced a realignment of supplies "to friendly countries" and is prepared to take reciprocal measures.
- The Ukrainian Conflict. Efforts by the USA and its allies to agree on a peace plan remain unfruitful, maintaining the sanctions regime against Russia. This restrains part of the export from the RF and affects long-term investment plans in new projects.
- Saudi Arabia and OPEC. Despite calls for market rebalancing, Saudi Arabia, together with the UAE, has yet to announce additional production cuts. Their strategic alliances are strengthening, and the prospects for new agreements remain ambiguous.
- Energy Policies of Other Countries. The USA is discussing options for legalising oil production domestically to lower prices ahead of elections. China and the EU are accelerating clean energy programmes, announcing new electrification projects. Free trade agreements (including energy resources) and environmental standards play an essential role in shaping long-term demand.
Overall, high geopolitical tension maintains volatility in commodity markets. Investors are closely monitoring changes in sanction policies and diplomatic signals (e.g., statements regarding support for China and negotiations between the USA and RF), as these may either exacerbate global oversupply (if sanctions are lifted and supplies increase) or intensify market tensions.
Asia: China and India Increase Purchases and Domestic Production
Key Asian players continue to strengthen their positions in the energy sector. China remains the largest importer of oil and gas, purchasing hydrocarbons at attractive prices. In 2025, thanks to discounts, Russia increased Urals oil supplies to China and is also expanding gas exports. At the same time, Beijing is ramping up domestic oil production, especially in gas (shale gas, coalbed methane), aiming to reduce dependence on imports.
- Indian Demand. India is actively importing both oil and petroleum products from Russia and global markets. It is estimated that the country is gradually changing its supply partners; however, it is not yet in a position to abruptly abandon Russian energy carriers without harming its economy. Concurrently, New Delhi is investing in the exploration and extraction of oil and gas, including shale projects.
- Chinese Strategies. Beijing has not imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports and is aiding its raw material security through state-led strategic stockpiling. The transition to electric vehicles is progressing rapidly, but the scale is currently significantly behind India's due to the rapid growth of the Chinese economy.
- Regional Role. China and India are the principal drivers of global hydrocarbon demand. Their decisions regarding energy sources (for instance, plans for "green" hydrogen, expanding renewable energy capacity, and local fuel production) influence global trends. Both markets are also primary buyers of coal and LNG from various regions worldwide.
As a result, Asia is establishing fundamental support for global demand: all else being equal, increased purchases from Russia and competitive local projects ensure that Chinese-Indian demand balances out some of the excess supply from other regions. It is essential for investors to consider that any policy changes in these countries (for instance, abandoning Russian supply or deepening the energy transition) may rapidly reshape supply and demand balances.
Conclusions and Forecasts
The results for December 2025 demonstrate that the global energy sector stands at a pivotal moment. For the coming months, experts predict continued moderate declines in oil prices (due to rising stocks) and the emergence of a weak positive trend in petroleum products due to diesel shortages. The gas market may remain divergent: Europe has benefited from ample stocks and reduced prices, while Asia anticipates greater LNG supply. At the same time, the energy transition and geopolitics will play a crucial role: investors and companies must prepare for possible volatility spikes depending on the success of "clean" projects and diplomatic processes.
