Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on 5 January 2026: Japan's PMI, China's Caixin PMI, Turkey's CPI Inflation, and the US ISM Manufacturing Index, as well as the Absence of Major Corporate Reports in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Monday marks the beginning of the new year in global markets with a series of significant macroeconomic publications. In Asia, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for Japan and China will set the tone for the region's industrial and service sectors. In Europe, the focus will be on inflation levels in Turkey and investor sentiment within the Eurozone, while in the US, the key benchmark for the day will be the ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The corporate calendar for 5 January is relatively calm: the earnings season for Q4 2025 has yet to commence, hence, no significant reports are expected from companies within the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, or MOEX. Investors will need to connect the economic signals received—from Asian demand and commodity prices to Federal Reserve rate expectations—to assess the overall market sentiment at the start of 2026.
Macroeconomic Calendar (UTC+3)
- 03:30 — Japan: Manufacturing PMI Index (December, final).
- 04:45 — China: Caixin PMIs for Services and Composite (December).
- 10:00 — Turkey: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December (year-on-year inflation).
- 11:30 — Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence Index (January).
- 17:45 — USA: Final Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global (December).
- 18:00 — USA: ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (December).
Asia: PMI in Japan and China
Business activity in Asia will launch the year with the PMI releases for December. The final Manufacturing PMI for Japan is expected to remain below the 50-point threshold (November: ~48.7; December flash: ~49.7), indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, albeit at a more moderate pace than the previous month. This reflects the persistent weakness of external demand for Japanese exports, despite signs of stabilisation in domestic demand.
- Japanese Manufacturing PMI: Values below 50 signal a contraction in output. An increase in the PMI closer to 50 suggests a softening of the downturn, potentially providing support to shares of industrial companies in Japan and neighbouring markets.
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI: Expected to be just above 50 (previous value around 52), indicating continued growth in China's service sector. A slowdown from the previous month’s figure (52.6 in November) may reflect consumer caution, while stable readings will bolster optimism regarding demand in the PRC. The Composite PMI for China will merge trends from both manufacturing and services, providing a broader view of the economy.
The PMI data from Asia will signal to investors how the region's largest economies are concluding the year: improvements in these indicators could support commodity markets and currencies of emerging nations, while negative surprises would heighten concerns over a slowdown in global demand.
Turkey: CPI Inflation Dynamics
The year-on-year inflation rate in Turkey for December will be one of the key indicators of the day for emerging markets. A deceleration in consumer price growth to approximately 30–32% y/y (down from ~31% in November) is anticipated, which would represent the lowest level in several years. This moderation is attributed to the tightening of monetary policy by the new leadership of the Central Bank of Turkey in the second half of 2025.
- Deceleration of CPI: A continued decline in inflation will confirm the effectiveness of recent sharp interest rate hikes (the CBRT rate was raised to double-digit levels). Easing price pressures will amplify expectations that the regulator may shift to a more dovish stance in 2026, which would be positive for Turkish bonds and equities.
- Inflation Structure: Investors will analyse which components are contributing to disinflation. A slowdown in price growth for food and energy will reduce socio-economic tensions, while a reduction in core inflation (excluding volatile components) will indicate a sustainable improvement in the situation.
- Market Reaction: Attention will focus on the Turkish lira and the banking sector. Moderate CPI data could strengthen the lira and support share prices of Turkish banks and companies (on expectations of rate cuts), while an unexpected inflation spike could trigger sell-offs in Turkish assets amid fears of further policy tightening.
Europe: Sentix and Investor Sentiment
While there are few direct major macro releases in Europe on Monday, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone in January will be released. This leading indicator reflects the sentiment of financial participants regarding the Eurozone economy. Last month, the Sentix value was recorded at −6.2 (amid falling energy prices and hopes for a soft landing for the economy).
- Sentix Expectations: The forecast implies a slight improvement in sentiment, with a possible rise in the index towards −5…−4. Although the reading remains in negative territory (indicating a prevalence of pessimism), its increase signals a partial recovery of investor confidence in the stability of the Eurozone economy.
- Impact on EU Markets: A moderately positive Sentix could support European equity indices (Euro Stoxx 50 and national indices) at the beginning of the year, particularly sensitive sectors such as banking and industry. Conversely, a weak index would enhance defensive sentiment, increasing interest in German bonds and resilient 'defensive' stocks.
Overall, Sentix will set the tone ahead of the release of more significant data in Europe later in the week (including preliminary inflation estimates from key countries). Investors from CIS countries focused on the European market will regard Sentix as a barometer of the overall market atmosphere within the EU.
USA: ISM Index and the Manufacturing Sector
The ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index for December will be released in the USA, forming one of the first important indicators of the state of the US economy in the new year. The Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management is expected to remain in the 47–49 point range (November: 48.2), suggesting that a contraction in the manufacturing sector is likely to persist (values below 50 indicate contraction). Markets will be looking for signs of shifting dynamics in the report—a potential approach to a turning point or deepening of the downturn.
- New Orders and Production: Key components of the ISM. Last month, the new orders index was significantly below 50, reflecting weak demand for goods. If December witnesses an increase in new orders toward 50, it would signal the first signs of an industrial revival. A decline would indicate continuing weak demand, particularly from exports.
- Prices and Inventories: The prices sub-index (Prices Paid) will reveal trends in producer costs. Slowing price growth for raw materials and components indicates a reduction in inflationary pressure in manufacturing, which is positive for company margins. Data on warehouse inventories and backlog orders will provide insight into whether companies are cutting production in anticipation of a recovery in demand.
- US Market Reactions: For investors, the ISM index will serve as an indicator of sentiment within the industrial sector, potentially impacting the dynamics of Wall Street indices. A stronger-than-expected PMI (closer to 50) could bolster shares of cyclical companies (industry, materials) and simultaneously increase Treasury yields (on the back of reduced expectations for an aggressive Fed rate cut). Conversely, disappointing ISM data, moving deeper into negative territory, could enhance discussions on potential stimulus or rate reductions—which may weaken the US dollar and drive up gold prices amid expectations of a dovish policy.
It is worth mentioning that alongside the ISM, the final reading of the S&P Global PMI for the US will also be released for December (manufacturing), although it has a lesser impact as preliminary figures are already known. Investors will focus mainly on the ISM report and the subsequent market reactions—from the S&P 500 to US Treasury yields.
Corporate Reporting: Before Market Opening (BMO, USA and Asia)
- Absence of Major Quarterly Reports: No companies listed in the major indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX) are releasing financial earnings reports on 5 January. The earnings season for Q4 2025 has not yet started, leading investors to temporarily shift their focus to macroeconomic data.
- US Automakers: Data on vehicle sales for December and the entire year of 2025 is expected from leading automotive manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, etc.). These figures do not constitute traditional earnings reports but will provide insight into demand within the US automotive market at year-end, particularly for electric vehicles. Strong holiday sales may support shares in the auto sector.
- Chinese EV Manufacturers: Major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers (NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto) traditionally disclose delivery data for December at the beginning of January. High sales growth rates in EVs in China at year-end will underscore persistent demand and may have a positive impact on the shares of these companies listed on the exchange (as well as on related markets, like battery manufacturers).
- Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn): The Taiwanese tech giant and key electronics manufacturer (iPhone assembler) releases monthly revenue data. The report for December is anticipated on 5 January: investors will assess the strength of year-on-year revenue growth amid the holiday season. Hon Hai’s figures serve as a barometer of global demand for electronics and gadgets: a rise in December sales will indicate a successful season for electronics manufacturers, while weak data may temporarily dampen sentiment towards shares in the sector.
Corporate Reporting: After Market Close (AMC, USA)
- Following the closure of American exchanges on 5 January, no major publicly traded US companies are scheduled to release financial earnings reports. Investors will utilise this pause before the commencement of the earnings season to analyse macroeconomic signals and prepare for corporate news flows that are expected to intensify from the second week of January.
End of Day Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- 1) PMI in Asia: Business activity indicators from Japan and China will serve as an early signal of global industrial health. Improvements in PMI readings could support commodities and currencies of emerging markets, whereas weak data would heighten concerns over commodity demand and exports from Asian countries.
- 2) Inflation in Turkey: Continued disinflation (falling CPI) will bolster confidence in the economic policy of Turkish authorities and may lead to increases in prices for Turkish bonds and equities. However, an unexpected spike in inflation could cause volatility—weakening the lira and prompting investors to reassess risks in the Turkish market.
- 3) ISM Manufacturing Index (USA): This report could set the direction for US markets and the global stage. If ISM surpasses expectations, investors will likely revise their forecasts for interest rates (towards a more 'hawkish' Fed), reflected in rising bond yields and support for cyclical stocks. In the event of disappointing PMI data, expectations for policy easing will rise—potentially leading to a correction in the dollar and an increase in interest in defensive assets (gold, bonds).
In conclusion, the first trading Monday of 2026 presents investors with a comprehensive overview of economic trends—from Asia to America. The outcomes of these events will determine the degree of risk appetite in the markets: balanced, modestly positive data may provide markets with a growth impetus at the start of the year, while negative surprises are likely to compel participants to adopt a more cautious stance, awaiting further signals from forthcoming reports and statistics.
