Global Oil, Gas and Energy Industry News as of January 6, 2026: Oil and Gas, Renewables, Coal, Electricity, Refineries, Commodity Markets, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex for Investors and Market Participants
Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 concluded for the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) against a backdrop of conflicting factors: oil prices fell nearly 20% over the year due to concerns over oversupply, while persistent geopolitical tensions sustain demand for "safe haven" assets. This combination of factors creates an ambiguous environment for market participants and investors, compelling them to closely monitor developments. Experts believe that 2026 may witness a surplus in the oil market, exerting downward pressure on prices. However, local factors—including ongoing Western sanctions (including the EU embargo on petroleum products from Russia) and production disruptions (following recent attacks on several refineries)—are limiting exports and preventing prices from collapsing, particularly supporting high margins for diesel fuel.
Trends in gas markets are changing even more rapidly: Europe is accelerating its reduction of pipeline gas supplies from Russia (transit through Ukraine has effectively ceased by the end of 2025) and plans to entirely abandon Russian gas by 2028, increasing LNG imports. Simultaneously, some Asian countries are restructuring their supply routes in response to trade disputes, reducing purchases of US LNG due to tariffs on energy imports from the United States. Global demand for electricity continues to surge—driven by a boom in data centres, the development of artificial intelligence technologies, and mass electrification of transport and utilities—which stimulates investment in renewable energy and energy storage systems. Additionally, a relatively mild winter in Europe at the beginning of the heating season is helping to keep gas prices in check and ensuring supply stability, easing potential market turmoil.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Environment: Experts forecast that Brent crude oil will trade in a range of approximately $60–65 per barrel during 2026. It is expected that total supply will exceed global demand by around 3–4 million barrels per day in the coming months, leading to an accumulation of commercial oil stocks.
- OPEC+ Policy: The OPEC+ alliance is refraining from increasing production and is maintaining existing production limits. The total volume of reductions under the agreement amounts to around 3.2 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand).
- Demand: The global economy is showing overall resilient growth, which will further increase global oil consumption by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. There is particularly strong demand expansion in Asian countries and the Middle East, while shale oil production in the US is beginning to decline gradually.
- Geopolitics: A potential peaceful resolution to the conflict surrounding Ukraine could significantly shift the balance in the oil market. The lifting of sanctions and the return of substantial volumes of Russian oil to the global market would increase supply and intensify pressure on prices, while the continuation of restrictions would keep prices at a higher level.
Gas Market: Supplies and Demand
- Pipeline Supplies: Exports of Russian natural gas via pipelines to Europe have declined by more than 40% by the end of 2025 following the cessation of transit through Ukraine. Given that the EU aims to completely eliminate imports of Russian gas by 2028, only a few alternative routes (primarily through Turkey) remain for deliveries from Russia.
- LNG and Alternatives: European nations are sharply increasing their purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar, and other countries to compensate for the decline in pipeline supplies. At the same time, some Asian countries have reduced imports of US LNG due to imposed tariffs; however, demand for liquefied gas in China and India continues to grow as these economies seek to diversify fuel sources and strengthen energy security.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in gas infrastructure development and storage expansion to enhance its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to increase until 2035–2040, reaching around 620–650 billion cubic metres per year, which is driving further expansion of national gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Many countries are witnessing a record increase in electricity consumption. In the US, annual electricity consumption may exceed 4.2 trillion kWh as early as 2026 due to the data centre boom, the implementation of artificial intelligence, and active electrification of transport and municipal services.
- Share of Renewables: The contribution of renewable energy sources to global generation is steadily increasing. By 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation is expected to exceed 4.6 TW (approximately 80% of which will be from solar power plants). In the coming years, accelerated growth in electricity generation based on wind and solar energy is anticipated, thanks to government incentives and declining technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) is rapidly gaining momentum. Chinese companies dominate this sector—exports of lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage grew by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage technologies are also expanding and may exceed $60 billion by the end of the current year, according to projections.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption reached a record 8.85 billion tonnes by the end of 2025 (0.5% more than the previous year) and is expected to gradually decline toward the end of the decade. This is driven by the active growth of renewable, nuclear, and gas energy capacities, gradually displacing coal from the energy balance.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to abnormally heavy rainfall and record hydroelectric generation, while in the US, coal use has risen amid increasing natural gas prices. China, being the world's largest coal consumer (with consumption approximately 30% higher than the total of all other countries), stabilized consumption in 2025, but it is anticipated that in the 2030s, the share of coal in China's energy balance will begin to decline.
- Environmental Factors: Governments continue to seek a balance between climate goals and energy security. Despite stringent regulations focusing on decarbonisation, the coal industry remains an important part of energy supply in several regions, creating uncertainty for investors and complicating strategic planning in the energy sector.
Oil Refining and Petroleum Products
- Diesel Shortage: In 2025, the diesel refining margin in Europe increased by approximately 30%, despite falling oil prices. This situation is attributed to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU embargo on petroleum products derived from Russian oil. The limited supply of diesel fractions supports high price spreads for petroleum products.
- New Capacities: The launch of major new refineries in developed countries is not expected in the coming years, thus structural shortages will persist in the petroleum products market. Many analysts believe that excessively high refining margins will be maintained until additional oil refining capacities come online.
- Venezuela: The oil company PDVSA is forced to accumulate heavy oil residues in tanks as US sanctions continue to restrict the export of Venezuelan heavy fuel and other fuels. This exacerbates the shortage of marine (bunkering) fuel in the global market, which is particularly felt by countries reliant on imports from Venezuela.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major oil and gas companies continue to enter into large agreements for project development. For instance, the Italian company Saipem secured a $425 million contract for the development of the Sakarya gas field in Turkey. The British independent company Harbour Energy became the operator of the Zama oil field in Mexico (with a resource base of around 750 million barrels) while simultaneously concluding $3.2 billion deals for project development in the Gulf of Mexico, significantly strengthening its position in the region.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and gained control of the assets of LLOG in the Gulf of Mexico. These deals allowed Harbour to operate two of the largest independent oil and gas projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulatory bodies continue to influence the industry. In Serbia, the NIS refinery (controlled by Gazprom Neft) received a temporary license from OFAC allowing operational activities to continue until January 23, 2026. This step enabled the plant to resume operations after a forced shutdown due to US sanctions, though the future of the license remains uncertain.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Stock Market Trends: The dynamics of stock indices for energy sector companies reflect the situation in commodity markets. At the end of 2025, key stock indices in the Middle East fell following a decline in oil prices (for example, the main index in Saudi Arabia dropped by approximately 1%), while shares of the largest global oil and gas corporations showed moderate declines.
- Monetary Policy: Central bank decisions directly impact the investment climate. For instance, in Egypt, a 100 basis point reduction in the base interest rate at the end of the year spurred a rise in the national stock index by approximately 0.9%, stimulating domestic demand. Similar monetary policy easing measures are being discussed in other emerging economies, which could create more favourable conditions for fuel and energy sector companies in the future.
