Analytical Review of Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, 4 January 2026. Continuation of Holiday Calm, Minimal Data and Preparation for the First Trading Week of the Year.
Sunday, 4 January 2026, sees a continuation of the calm prevailing in global markets following the New Year celebrations. Major US and European exchanges are closed for the holiday, and trading activity remains subdued as investors reflect on the results of 2025 and formulate strategies for the beginning of the new year. There are no macroeconomic publications or corporate reports from major companies anticipated today, leaving the market without fresh catalysts for price movements. Nevertheless, market participants are utilising this pause to analyse previously released data and prepare for the first full trading week of 2026, during which new statistical indicators and financial reports will begin to surface.
Macro Economic Calendar (MSK)
No significant macroeconomic statistics are scheduled for Sunday, 4 January. Most government institutions and central banks are taking a break for the holidays, meaning there are no new benchmarks. The absence of fresh data leaves markets without guidance until the working week begins.
USA (S&P 500 Index)
- The American markets are not conducting trading on this holiday, and there are no releases of economic indicators or quarterly reports from companies in the S&P 500 on 4 January. Investors in the US are reflecting on the dynamics at the year's end: in the last week of December, the S&P 500 index demonstrated moderate growth against the backdrop of expectations for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve in 2026.
- During its December meeting, the Federal Reserve confirmed its dovish trajectory after a series of rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Slowing inflation towards the target level and a stable labour market enable the regulator to signal its readiness to support economic growth. These expectations have bolstered appetites for riskier assets.
- Yields on long-term US Treasury bonds stabilised following a recent decline, reflecting investor confidence that inflationary pressures remain under control. The upcoming release of key employment data (Non-Farm Payrolls for December, due at the end of the first week of January) is a focal point — its results will help determine further sentiment on Wall Street as the new year begins.
Europe (Euro Stoxx 50 Index)
- European markets are also closed on 4 January, and there are no new macroeconomic events in the region. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index finished 2025 with little change, maintaining its position near the year's highs. The decline in inflation by year-end alleviated pressure on the European Central Bank, which has signalled an imminent end to its rate-hiking cycle. Bond yields in the Eurozone stabilised, and the banking sector has enjoyed a reprieve in anticipation of eased credit conditions in 2026.
- Among European corporate sectors, there has been a mixed dynamic in the results of the last quarter: banks reported profit growth amid previously high rates, while industrial companies faced increased costs due to expensive energy. Investors on European exchanges are awaiting new data (such as business activity and consumer confidence indices in early January) to assess the prospects for corporate profits in the first quarter of the new year.
Asia (China and Japan Markets)
- In Asia, major exchanges are closed on 4 January, but attention is focused on economic signals. In China, December PMI indices indicate moderate growth in the service sector with weak recovery in manufacturing, signalling a gradual stabilisation of the economy (Chinese authorities promise additional stimuli in 2026). Japan's Nikkei 225 remains near multi-year highs due to a weak yen and the ultra-loose policy of the Bank of Japan: despite inflation exceeding 2%, the regulator has not yet rolled back its support, which benefits exporters.
Commodity and Currency Markets: Oil, Gold and the Ruble
- Brent oil prices are hovering around $75–80 per barrel, remaining stable thanks to the extended production restrictions by OPEC+ and steady demand; the lack of news over the holiday has not led to price fluctuations. Gold prices are also calm — the metal is trading around $2000 per ounce with minimal volatility: at the year's end, gold slightly increased due to a weakening dollar and demand for safe-haven assets, while expectations of peak interest rates continue to sustain interest in the precious metal.
- The ruble demonstrates stability over the weekend. The official exchange rate of the Russian currency remains near the close of the last session (approximately 75 rubles per 1 US dollar), but trading volumes are minimal due to the holiday season and the pause at the Moscow Exchange. The absence of external shocks and relatively stable oil prices are supporting the ruble. Volatility in the Russian currency market is expected to return with the opening of trading after the New Year holidays; at that point, the ruble's exchange rate will start to respond to dollar dynamics on Forex, energy prices, and potential news regarding sanctions or economic policy.
Corporate Sector: Reporting and Company Prospects
- The global corporate calendar for 4 January is empty — no major publicly traded companies from the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225 or Moscow Exchange are releasing financial results on this Sunday. The third quarter earnings season concluded back in November, and we are now in a pause before the new reporting cycle begins. Major corporations typically avoid significant announcements during the holiday season, resulting in a neutral business news background today.
- In the US, the season for fourth quarter 2025 earnings reports is approaching: in the second half of January, major banks and tech giants will begin to report. Investors are cautiously optimistic about these releases — profit forecasts are generally positive, bolstered by resilient consumer demand and easing inflationary pressures. The previous season (Q3 2025 results) was successful for the US market: most companies exceeded profit expectations. For instance, Microsoft reported a sharp increase in revenue from its cloud division, while Walmart reported strong retail sales, reinforcing confidence in consumer activity.
- In Europe, the release of financial results for the entirety of 2025 will commence closer to February, making January a traditionally quiet period for the European corporate calendar. Nevertheless, past reports for Q3 showed generally decent performance: many firms managed to maintain profitability. The banking sector in Europe benefited from higher interest rates in the first half of the year, while manufacturing corporations faced cost pressures. Investors in the region are now focusing on macro indicators to ascertain whether corporate profit growth will continue amid an economic slowdown.
Russia (Moscow Exchange Index)
- The Russian market is closed on 4 January for the New Year holidays (trading on the Moscow Exchange will resume after 8 January), hence no financial reports from major companies or corporate events are taking place today. At the end of December, the Moscow Exchange index retained relative stability due to high energy prices and easing monetary policy in Russia. Most leading companies reported for the first nine months of 2025 back in the autumn, showing robust results: oil and gas giants benefited from high oil and gas prices, while banks noted increased lending activity amid a declining key rate from the Central Bank of Russia.
- The focus for the Russian market is now shifting to external factors and governmental decisions. In the coming days, attention will be fixed on the dynamics of oil prices and the ruble exchange rate, which will set the tone for the Russian market upon reopening. Additionally, investors are looking for possible statements from the Russian government at the start of the year regarding budget policy or measures to support specific sectors. Any such news, along with global trends established during the holiday pause, will underpin the movements of the Moscow Exchange index in the initial trading sessions of January.
Day's Summary: What to Monitor as an Investor
- Monetary Policy of the Fed and ECB: Even in the absence of new events, it is crucial to consider comments and signals from central banks. Should any statements from representatives of the US Federal Reserve or the ECB emerge over the weekend regarding rate prospects, this could influence sentiment at the beginning of the week. Markets are pricing in a dovish shift, and any surprises in the rhetoric from regulators could alter this optimism.
- Data from China: Statistics emerging from China in these days (for instance, PMI indices or trade figures) will impact global risk appetite. Unexpectedly strong or weak figures from the People's Republic can set the tone for trading in Asia and, indirectly, in Europe and the US. Investors should pay attention to releases from the world's second-largest economy to evaluate its state at the start of the year.
- Commodity Prices and Geopolitics: Despite the holiday, it is wise to monitor news potentially affecting oil, gas, and metals prices. Any unplanned announcements from OPEC+ or geopolitical events (such as conflict situations or sanction decisions) could trigger sharp price fluctuations in commodities by the time trading opens. This will reflect on shares of resource companies and currencies of commodity-producing nations (including the Russian ruble).
