Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, 14 December 2025: China’s Industrial Production Data, US Fed and ECB Meetings, and Corporate Decisions from SFI Investment Holding. A Complete Review for CIS Investors.
On Sunday, global financial markets are experiencing a relative calm, with major exchanges closed. Investors are digesting the recent decisions from the Federal Reserve System of the United States and preparing for the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank. The beginning of the new week is set to be marked by the release of important macroeconomic statistics from China, which could set the tone for trading on Asian and commodity markets. Meanwhile, in Russia, market participants are focused on a significant corporate event – the shareholders' meeting of SFI holding, where substantial dividend and asset sale issues will be addressed. Overall, the mood among investors in the CIS and worldwide remains cautious: key global indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX Index) are concluding the week without sharp movements, concentrating on future signals for their strategies.
US Federal Reserve: Impact of Rate Cut and Market Response
The Federal Reserve, during its meeting on 9-10 December, reduced the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it to a range of 3.5-3.75% per annum. This move was anticipated by the market and marked the fourth rate cut in 2025 amidst slowing inflation in the United States. In its accompanying statement, the Fed signalled a more cautious approach going forward: any further monetary easing will depend on incoming economic data. The US stock market (S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices) responded with moderate growth to the regulator's decisive action in supporting the economy, although the increase was restrained – investors are evaluating whether the easing cycle is approaching a pause. US Treasury yields stabilised post-decision, while the dollar weakened slightly against major currencies, reflecting expectations of lower rates. On Sunday, market participants are reassessing the Fed's results: next week’s speeches from regulator representatives and the publication of meeting minutes could provide additional hints about the policy direction for 2026.
ECB and European Policy: Anticipation of the Decision on 18 December
European investors are focusing on the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank, scheduled for Thursday, 18 December. After a series of interest rate hikes throughout the year, the ECB is likely to maintain its refinancing rate at the current level (4.00%) in light of signs of slowing inflation in the eurozone (around 2.2% YoY) and fragile economic growth. ECB leadership, led by Christine Lagarde, is balancing the need to rein in inflation with the support of an economy showing signs of cooling. Investors in Europe (Euro Stoxx 50 index) will be searching for hints in the regulator's rhetoric concerning plans for 2026: potential pauses or an end to the tightening cycle, or readiness to resume rate hikes should price pressures intensify. The eurozone bond market is already pricing in stabilisation of rates – yields on government bonds have declined in anticipation of a dovish tone from the ECB. The ECB's decision and comments at the end of the week could impact the euro's exchange rate and the dynamics of European stocks, hence trading activity may remain subdued until Thursday.
China’s Economy: November Data Will Indicate Trends
On Monday morning, 15 December, China will publish a package of key macroeconomic indicators for November, drawing attention from investors ahead of the Asian trading session. Moderate industrial production growth is expected at around +5% YoY, in line with previous months, indicating sustained but not accelerating activity in the manufacturing sector. Retail sales figures are forecasted at approximately +3% YoY – consumer demand in China remains positive, albeit without a sharp surge, reflecting a gradual recovery of domestic consumption. Statistics on fixed asset investments and the real estate market will also be closely examined for signs of stabilisation in troubled sectors. Any deviation of actual data from expectations could provoke a noticeable reaction in Asian markets: stronger figures than predicted would bolster investor optimism, driving regional indices and commodity prices up, while weaker results may heighten concerns regarding the slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD) and industrial metal prices will be particularly sensitive to Chinese statistics.
Japan: Business Climate and Bank of Japan’s Stance
On Sunday at 23:50 GMT (01:50 Moscow time on Monday), the results of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey for Q4 2025 will be released. A modest improvement in business sentiment among large manufacturers and stable positive assessments in the services sector is anticipated. Preliminary economist forecasts indicate that the business optimism index among large manufacturers could rise by a few points compared to the previous quarter, reflecting Japanese companies’ adaptation to a weakened yen and a recovery in external demand. Simultaneously, confidence within large non-manufacturing (services) companies remains intact, bolstered by resilient domestic consumption. These data emerge against the backdrop of the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for 18-19 December. According to a Reuters poll, most experts expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates from the current 0.5% to 0.75% – marking the second policy tightening of the year, given inflation in Japan exceeding the 2% target. The Tankan survey will be a crucial indicator for the Bank of Japan: confirmation of strengthened business confidence may bolster the regulator's resolve to gradually move away from the era of zero rates. For the Nikkei 225 index and the yen’s rate, higher rate prospects carry a dual effect: the financial sector would benefit from a margin increase while exporters could face a stronger yen should the Bank of Japan’s decision exceed expectations.
Corporate News and Reports
- SFI (Russia) – the investment holding company (PJSC "SFI"), whose shares are traded on MOEX, is holding an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting in absentia on 14 December. The agenda includes major corporate decisions: shareholders will consider the board's proposal to pay interim dividends for 9 months of 2025 in the amount of 902 roubles per share, totalling approximately 43.9 billion roubles. Additionally, the question of selling a 87.5% stake in the leasing company "Europlan" (a key asset of SFI) to Alfa-Bank will be put to a vote – this transaction requires shareholder approval as it involves over half of the holding's assets. Furthermore, SFI plans to approve the redemption of the remaining 3.2% of treasury shares. These decisions indicate the company's intention to enhance shareholder returns and focus on key business areas. Russian investors will be closely monitoring the results of the meeting: generous dividends make SFI an attractive dividend story in the Russian market, while the sale of "Europlan" could significantly alter the holding's business structure.
- Nike (NKE, US) – one of the largest global manufacturers of sports apparel and footwear, will release its financial results for Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year on Thursday, 18 December (after the US market closes). Investors in the US and Europe are eagerly awaiting this report to assess consumer demand in the retail sector heading into the year-end. Analysts predict a moderate decrease in Nike’s profits compared to last year due to higher costs and currency fluctuations; however, any positive surprises (e.g., sales growth in North America or China) could support the company's shares and positively influence consumer goods sectors in the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices.
- FedEx (FDX, US) – a global leader in logistics and express delivery, will report its financial results for Q2 2026 at the end of the week (18 December, after trading concludes). FedEx's results serve as a barometer for business activity and global trade: an increase in delivery volumes typically reflects heightened economic activity. The market expects FedEx to report revenue growth against the backdrop of the pre-holiday season and effective cost-cutting measures. Strong results from FedEx could positively impact sentiment in the industrial and transportation sectors, while disappointing figures may heighten concerns regarding the global economic slowdown.
- Oracle (ORCL, US) – a major technology corporation, which already released its quarterly report (fiscal Q2 2026) last week, deserves mention due to the notable market response. The company reported double-digit annual profit growth; however, a weaker revenue forecast in the cloud segment disappointed investors. Oracle’s shares fell approximately 12% in recent days, putting pressure on the Nasdaq technology sector. This example highlights the selectiveness of market sentiment: even strong financial results may lead to share declines if forecasts fail to meet high expectations. Investors will continue to scrutinise Oracle's management comments, especially regarding demand for cloud services and developments in artificial intelligence, to adjust their assessments of the IT sector's outlook.
Geopolitical Factors
- Presidential Elections in Chile: on Sunday, 14 December, the second round of the presidential elections is taking place in Chile. Latin America is drawing attention from global investors as the outcome of this campaign could impact the economic direction of one of the largest regional players. Chile is a leading global supplier of copper and lithium, making candidates’ positions on the mining industry and foreign investments particularly significant. A market-friendly candidate's victory could stimulate investment inflows and ensure regulatory stability, positively affecting shares of Chilean mining companies and copper prices. Conversely, a more left-leaning rhetoric from the victor could raise concerns about increased state influence in strategic sectors, potentially limiting metal supply in the global market. In the short term, the election results will reflect on the dynamics of the peso and the prices of Chilean stocks on Monday; indirectly, the reaction may also be felt across other emerging markets, including the CIS markets, through changes in commodity prices and investor risk appetite.
- International Trade and Sanctions: no significant events are scheduled for 14 December; however, investors continue to monitor the backdrop of trade negotiations and sanctions policies. Focus remains on the potential continuation of dialogue between the US and China on trade issues following a series of mutual steps towards de-escalation, as well as news from Europe regarding sanctions against specific countries and companies. Any sudden statements from officials over the weekend could provoke movements in the markets come Monday morning. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty persists as a dampening factor: market participants are pricing in a risk premium for sensitive assets. For example, in the CIS markets, sanction risks and news surrounding geopolitical conflicts are still being factored in, although specific escalations have not occurred in recent days.
Commodity Markets
- Oil: Brent crude oil prices closed last week around $78 per barrel, demonstrating a slight decline due to profit-taking by investors. In the absence of new drivers, oil traders are focused on the upcoming macro data from China and indications from central banks. Chinese industrial and retail sales data could significantly impact the oil market: stronger growth in China’s economy would be interpreted as a sign of increased energy demand, potentially driving oil prices higher. The tone from the Fed and ECB will also be a contributing factor: should the regulators confirm a relaxation of financial conditions and rate cuts, the US dollar could weaken, supporting commodity prices. Next week, the market is also expecting the monthly OPEC report on supply and demand, which could clarify the cartel’s plans following its recent decision to curtail production. Overall, the range of oil price fluctuations remains relatively narrow as market participants await clearer guidance, with volatility somewhat reduced after November’s rally.
- Precious Metals: Gold continues to trade near its highest levels in recent months – around $2050 per troy ounce, benefiting from expectations of softer monetary policy. The Fed’s decision to lower rates and signals of a pause in tightening from other central banks enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency risks. Investors still view precious metals as a “safe haven”: capital inflow into gold ETFs increased last week. However, short-term dynamics of gold could be volatile; if central bank comments are less dovish than anticipated or the dollar unexpectedly strengthens, metal prices may correct. Silver and platinum also demonstrate resilience, following gold; the industrial demand component for them will depend on data from China. For CIS markets, gold prices are particularly relevant in the context of foreign currency revenues for exporters and the state of gold and foreign currency reserves, so sustained high gold prices benefit the region’s economies.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Focus On
- Monetary Policy in Focus: The repercussions of the Fed's decision to lower interest rates are already reflected in the market – it is crucial for investors to assess the regulator's comments and determine whether policy easing will continue. In the coming days, the tone from the Fed and expectations ahead of the ECB meeting (18 December) will set direction for currency rates (especially the euro/dollar pair) and global bond dynamics.
- China's Macro Data as a Driver: Early on Monday, data from China (industrial production and retail sales) could determine trading sentiment in Asia and on the commodity market. Strong statistics would bolster oil and industrial metal prices, while weaker figures may intensify concerns about the pace of global economic recovery.
- Corporate Events and Reports: On the local CIS market, the key event is the SFI shareholders' meeting, which could result in record dividends and a significant deal. This will draw attention from investors to the Russian stock market and financial sector. On the international front, impending reports from Nike and FedEx (18 December) will signal consumer spending and the state of global trade ahead of the holiday season. The technology sector remains sensitive to company forecasts, as demonstrated by the market reaction to Oracle’s report – investors should approach such stories selectively.
- Risks and Opportunities Over the Weekend: Despite the weekend, investors remain vigilant. Geopolitical surprises (such as the outcome of the elections in Chile) or sudden statements could disrupt market calm ahead of the week’s opening. It is advisable to pay attention to Sunday evening news to respond timely to potential changes in market conditions in Asia on Monday morning. With the end of the year approaching and decreasing market liquidity, caution should be exercised: even minor news can trigger disproportionately strong price fluctuations.
