Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Sunday, 1 February 2026 | OPEC+ and Russia–Ukraine–USA Negotiations

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, February 1, 2026: Russia-Ukraine-US Negotiations, OPEC+ Meeting, and the Start of the Month with PMI, Alongside Reports from S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

The first Sunday of February 2026 sets the tone for a new week, combining geopolitical and commodity-driven factors. On the global stage, negotiations to resolve the Ukraine conflict are taking place in Abu Dhabi, facilitated by the USA – a potential breakthrough on this front could influence investor sentiment worldwide. Simultaneously, OPEC+ countries are convening to determine oil policy amid oil prices reaching multi-month highs. The macroeconomic agenda remains relatively calm: there is a lack of data over the weekend, but markets will soon receive crucial indicators – the manufacturing PMI indices from China and ISM from the USA. On the corporate side, the quarterly earnings season is ongoing: investors are anticipating results from major companies (both in the USA, such as Disney, and globally) and assessing their impact on stock markets. For the Russian market, key indicators remain external factors – dynamics in oil prices after the OPEC+ decision, the rouble exchange rate, and the geopolitical situation, given that significant domestic events are sparse today. It is crucial for investors from the CIS countries to consider this global picture while preparing for the market opening on Monday.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. Throughout the day – Abu Dhabi, UAE: Trilateral meeting of representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the USA on the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict (continuation of the negotiation process, discussion of ceasefire conditions and territorial issues).
2. Throughout the day – Vienna, Austria: Meeting of OPEC ministers and allies under the OPEC+ agreement (the monitoring committee discusses compliance with production quotas and the prospects for oil policy in the coming months).
3. 04:00 (Mon) – China: Manufacturing PMI for January. Expected around a neutral level of 50, indicating stabilisation in the sector following recent fluctuations.
4. 18:00 (Mon) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI for January. The first significant indicator of economic activity in the USA for 2026, reflecting the state of industry and new orders in the manufacturing sector.

Geopolitics: Ukraine Negotiations in Abu Dhabi

• Continuation of Peace Dialogue. The second round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the USA concerning the resolution of the conflict is taking place in Abu Dhabi. The first round occurred here on January 23–24, laying the groundwork for further discussions. The central theme of the meeting is territorial disputes: the parties are attempting to find a compromise regarding control over contested regions. Previous contacts have been assessed by participants as constructive: media reports indicate that delegations have been able to discuss details regarding a possible ceasefire and its monitoring mechanisms, which instills cautious optimism.
• Stances of the Parties and Prospects. The negotiations are mediated by the USA; however, this meeting is likely to have a predominantly bilateral character between Moscow and Kyiv representatives. Kyiv continues to publicly exclude territorial concessions: President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed his unwillingness to compromise territory integrity. Moscow, in turn, insists on its "red lines," including the status of Donbas and Crimea as part of Russia. Nevertheless, the fact that the territorial issue has been positioned as central indicates that various other topics (like ceasefire regimes, humanitarian concerns, the situation surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) have either been discussed or postponed. American mediators express hope that the current round may bring the parties closer to preliminary agreements. According to sources, progress has been made on the details of a potential agreement, and there exists a chance to create a framework document that the USA would support separately with each side.
• Markets Monitoring the Outcome. Investors perceive these negotiations through the lens of global risk and uncertainty premiums. Any signs of breakthroughs, such as an agreement on a long-term ceasefire or a roadmap towards a peace settlement, may reduce geopolitical tension. This, in turn, could enhance risk appetite in global stock markets: European company stocks and currencies of emerging countries (including the rouble) would receive support from a decrease in the war premium, while commodity prices (oil, gas, wheat), which partially factor in military risk, could adjust downwards. Conversely, should negotiations reach an impasse or be disrupted, markets may respond with increased demand for safe-haven assets – gold, the US dollar, government bonds – and heightened volatility at the start of the week, especially in sectors sensitive to frontline news (oil, defence sector, European markets).

OPEC+: Meeting on Oil Policy

• Expectation of Maintaining Quotas. OPEC+ countries are holding a scheduled meeting where it is expected that current production limits will remain unchanged for at least the first quarter of 2026. The alliance previously agreed to halt production increases in February and March, and five delegates in OPEC+ informed Reuters that the current meeting is unlikely to make adjustments to this policy. Key participants – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and others – have indicated their willingness to adhere to previously agreed production levels, aiming to maintain market balance and keep oil prices at a comfortable level.
• Oil Prices and Context. Oil prices have approached the meeting at highs not seen since late summer: Brent is trading in the range of approximately $70–75 per barrel following a rise in January. The price increase has been supported by a combination of factors: geopolitical tension in the Middle East (increased US sanctions on Iran and military action threats) has added additional risk premium to the market, while unplanned supply disruptions (e.g., recent halts at the major Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan) have constrained supply. Against this background, OPEC+ is unlikely to wish to increase production – rather, they will likely maintain a wait-and-see position to avoid market oversaturation during the seasonally weaker demand period.
• Market Reaction to Oil. The base scenario of "no changes" is already largely factored into prices and will be perceived neutrally by the market: oil is likely to maintain its current range of fluctuations, and stocks of oil and gas companies on global exchanges (and the MOEX index, where there is a high share of the commodity sector) will demonstrate stable performance. However, it is essential for investors to monitor statements following the meeting. Any hints at future steps – such as discussions on conditions for a possible production increase in the second quarter or, conversely, readiness to extend limitations until mid-year – could amplify price fluctuations. If there’s any notable disagreement between participants or unexpected proposals (such as an unplanned cut or increase in production), the oil market could experience volatility: additional restrictions would push prices upward, while signals of potential supply increases could cause short-term price declines.

Industrial Sector: China PMI and US ISM

• China: Signs of Stabilisation. January data on manufacturing activity in China sets the tone for the entire Asian region. The official PMI index for China is anticipated around the key level of 50 points, which separates growth from contraction. By the end of 2025, the Chinese economy was facing a slowdown; however, stimulation and stabilisation measures taken by Beijing (including easing credit policies and supporting the real estate sector) may have prevented further reductions in industrial activity. If the PMI exceeds expectations and rises above 50, it would indicate an unexpected uptick in activity – such a signal would reinforce commodity markets (from copper to oil) and boost the stocks of Asian companies focused on domestic demand within China. In contrast, a weak PMI (below expectations or in contraction territory) may heighten concerns regarding the recovery of the Chinese economy, negatively impacting currencies and markets in commodity-supplying countries and the overall global risk appetite.
• USA: First Look at the Economy for 2026. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January will be released on Monday and will be among the first macro signals of the year for the US market. At the end of 2025, the US manufacturing sector was in a state of stagnation, and consensus anticipates an ISM value around 48–50 points (on the brink of contraction). Investors will scrutinise the index’s components – new orders, employment, and price pressures. An improvement in ISM (an increase closer to or above 50) would indicate that the manufacturing sector is beginning to recover following last year's downturn: this would support stocks in industrial companies, machinery, the commodity sector, and may also lead to rising bond yields due to revisions of expectations regarding Federal Reserve rates. Conversely, if the index remains significantly below 50 or declines, markets will view this as a signal of ongoing economic weakness – such an outcome may bolster discussions regarding a softening Fed policy and lead to a local decline in yields, alongside concerns for industrial giants' corporate profits.
• Market Significance. The results of China’s PMI and US ISM will collectively set the direction for global markets as February begins. Positive surprises in manufacturing indices (growth in activity, reduced inventory levels, improved new orders) would bolster investors’ confidence that the global economy can withstand high rates and maintain growth momentum – this is a favourable factor for stock markets, particularly in cyclical industries (machinery, metallurgy, chemicals). Concurrently, interest in safe-haven assets would decrease as recession risk recedes. Conversely, if weak data emerges both from China and the USA, the opposite reaction can be anticipated: discussions regarding the risk of a global industrial downturn will intensify, leading to a more cautious market approach – a rotation from risky assets to bonds may occur, along with partial profit taking on stocks, particularly in segments tied to investment demand (like equipment manufacturers and the automotive sector). Thus, monitoring the morning PMI from Asia and the subsequent ISM index during the day will be crucial for investors planning their actions at the start of the week.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, USA)

• Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The media giant and component of the Dow Jones index will present its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 (October–December 2025) before the US markets open. The focus will be on the performance of key segments during the holiday period. Investors will evaluate revenue from theme parks and resorts (notably after a revival in tourism and attendance), the dynamics of the subscriber base for the Disney+ streaming service and related profits/losses, as well as box office returns from recent film releases. Equally important will be the management’s statement: the market anticipates comments from CEO Bob Iger regarding further business restructuring, potential sales of non-core assets (like TV networks), and expense reduction plans. Strong results (beating profit forecasts and subscriber growth) could uplift Disney stocks and boost optimism throughout the entertainment and communications sectors, whereas disappointment in figures or a cautious outlook may lead to declines in share prices, indicating ongoing post-pandemic challenges for the industry.
• Other Releases Before Market Open. Among other significant early morning reports are Tyson Foods (TSN) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX). Tyson, a world leader in the agribusiness sector and meat supplier, reports amid volatile feedstock prices and changing consumer preferences. Investors will look at Tyson's margins: whether it has been able to pass increased costs onto consumers and maintain profitability, and how sales volumes of chicken, beef, and pork have changed regarding price dynamics. This data will provide insights into inflation in the food sector and the state of consumer demand for essential products. IDEXX Laboratories – a leading developer of veterinary diagnostic solutions – will reveal results interestingly concerning pet health expenditures. Revenue growth at IDXX could indicate robust demand for pet services even amid overall economic uncertainty. Overall, the morning reports in the USA will set the tone: strong performances by Tyson, IDEXX, and other S&P 500 companies will reinforce confidence in corporate profitability, while weakness or downgraded forecasts will prompt investors to start the week with greater caution.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The well-known big data and analytics platform company will report after the main trading session in the USA ends. Palantir operates in the technology sector with a focus on AI and security solutions, and its Q4 2025 results will attract attention as an indicator of software demand for government and commercial clients. Focus will be on revenue growth in government contracts (traditionally a strong area for Palantir, especially given geopolitical instability) and its commercial segment (how actively private businesses are adopting their data analysis platforms). Investors also await information regarding the initial outcomes of the company’s AI initiatives that were previously announced, along with comments regarding profitability: Palantir achieved sustained net income for the first time last year, and it is critical to know whether it has maintained positive profitability. Any signs of accelerated business growth or optimistic forecasts for 2026 (for example, thanks to new defence contracts or success with the AIP – Artificial Intelligence Platform product) will support further stock growth, while slow activity or lack of progress in monetising AI solutions may dampen investor enthusiasm towards this popular stock.
• Other Companies Reporting After Market Close. Besides Palantir, several other notable issuers will release reports on Monday after trading ends. This includes chipmaker NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), whose Q4 results will indicate the state of the semiconductor industry, especially in the automotive electronics and IoT segments (key to understanding whether demand from the automotive sector has remained and if supply chains are recovering). Additionally, several mid-cap tech and biotech firms will report, while in Asia, results from various Japanese corporations for the third quarter of the 2025 financial year will emerge (for example, TDK has already announced a report release on this day). Although the influence of these individual reports on the broader market is limited, the cumulative picture is significant. For instance, if the semiconductor sector (as demonstrated by NXP) shows robust growth and forecasts, this would set a positive tone ahead of larger reports scheduled for the week (with giants like Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Amazon set to report in the coming days). Conversely, unexpectedly weak results from individual companies on Monday evening may increase nervousness and volatility in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors should pay attention to sector signals: trends revealed in these reports may help adjust earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies moving forward.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): For European markets, Sunday is traditionally a quiet day, and there are no new earnings reports from major companies today. The primary annual earnings reporting season in Europe will start later in February, so at the beginning of the week, investors in the Eurozone will shift focus to external factors and macro statistics. Key points of interest include the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting (important for energy company stocks and the economies of Norway and the UK), news from Abu Dhabi regarding Ukraine (any reduction in geopolitical tension is positive for European assets), and data from China and the USA. Regional economic indicators will be released in the following days: on Tuesday, preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone for January is expected, with consensus predicting further deceleration in price growth (the annual CPI may drop closer to 2.5%, approaching the ECB's target). In the currency market, the euro remains around $1.10, while yields on EU country bonds have stabilised – investors are factoring in a pause in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank amidst signs of easing inflationary pressure. The absence of internal corporate drivers today means that on Monday, European stock indices will likely follow the overarching global trend set by weekend news and the dynamics of futures on American indices, with potential corrections influenced by local news (such as political events in individual EU countries or fluctuations in gas prices).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese stock market approaches the start of the week without significant new corporate reports on Sunday – most leading companies in the country have already released half-year results, and the reporting for the third financial quarter (October–December) for many is scheduled for the first half of February (some tech companies are set to report between February 5–10). The macroeconomic backdrop in Japan remains relatively stable: inflation in Tokyo is holding at around ~2.4% year-on-year, which, while exceeding the target 2% guideline, still allows the Bank of Japan to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates in Japan remain close to zero, and the central bank continues to control bond yields (YCC), keeping the yen in a weakened state – the Japanese currency hovers around ¥158 against the US dollar. A weak yen is traditionally favourable for export-oriented companies, which is one of the factors keeping the Nikkei 225 at high levels in recent months. In the absence of domestic news today, the Japanese index will likely respond to external factors: improved sentiments on Wall Street on Friday and potential positive signals from China (such as if the PMI unexpectedly shows growth) could lift the Nikkei at the open. However, Nikkei’s growth may face constraints if geopolitical uncertainty increases or if investors shift towards safe-haven assets: in such scenarios, a strengthening yen is usually observed as a “safe haven,” which may temporarily deteriorate the competitive position of Japanese exporters and lead to corrections in their stocks.
• MOEX (Russia): The Russian MOEX index ended January at levels between 3200–3250 points, demonstrating moderate growth for the month amid a favourable commodity price environment and relative calm on the foreign policy front. As of February 1, no major corporate events are scheduled on the Russian market: the annual financial reporting season for 2025 for most issuers will commence later, closer to the end of February and in March. Today, investors on the MOEX will be primarily influenced by external signals. A key external factor will be the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and the dynamics of oil prices: stability or increases in Brent prices following the meeting will support shares of oil and gas companies (Lukoil, Rosneft) and the replenishment of the federal budget, while any disappointments for the oil market could quickly reflect negatively on sentiment on the MOEX. The Russian currency market is relatively calm: the rouble is trading around 90 to the dollar, receiving support from high energy prices and a lack of new sanction shocks. The month-end tax period has concluded, which has removed some short-term support, but overall the balance of power in the FX market has shifted towards stabilising the exchange rate – exporters are selling their revenue against the backdrop of expensive oil, compensating for capital outflow. In the context of a relatively neutral global backdrop, Russian indices will likely move in line with global trends today. Individual corporate stories (for example, possible operational reports from individual companies or management statements) may cause local fluctuations, but won’t set broad index dynamics. The main task for domestic investors is to evaluate external factors (OPEC+, geopolitics, sentiment in the USA and China) and be prepared for their influence on trades at the beginning of the week.

Summary of the Day: What to Watch for Investors

• OPEC+ Decisions and Oil. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will be one of the main benchmarks at the start of the week. The base scenario of maintaining current production levels will be perceived calmly by the market: oil prices are likely to remain within the previous corridor (around $70+ per barrel), and shares of oil and gas companies will continue to trade without major deviations. However, it is important for investors to monitor the rhetoric and comments following the meeting. If leading exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc.) unanimously confirm their commitment to limited production, this will bolster confidence in the stability of commodity markets. Any hints at future changes – for example, a possible increase in quotas in the second quarter or convening an extraordinary OPEC+ meeting should market conditions shift – could elevate volatility. Special attention should be given to the reactions of the currencies of commodity-exporting countries: strengthening oil prices will support the rouble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, while any unexpected “dovish” signals (for instance, discussions on increasing supply) may lead to their weakening.
• Geopolitics and Risk Appetite. The trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi are a factor that could significantly influence global risk appetite. Investors need to keep abreast of news from the UAE: even a non-working day may provide information that will direct market movements heading into Monday’s open. A positive outcome (for example, announcements of ceasefire agreements or a scheduled next round with a specific agenda) will diminish uncertainty and likely support growth assets: European and emerging market stocks may receive upward momentum, while prices for safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds) decline. Conversely, should negotiations conclude without results or if new tensions arise, investors' readiness to take on risk may diminish: expect increased demand for “safe havens” – the US dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and potential corrections on European equity markets. Sectors intertwined with military expenditures and commodity supplies (defence, oil and gas, grain markets) will be particularly sensitive: a negative outcome from negotiations is likely to support prices (factoring in the continuation of the conflict), whereas a positive outcome may conversely lead to price declines (due to reduced risk premiums).
• Corporate Reports and Market Sentiment. The ongoing earnings season will shape investor sentiment in the coming week. On Monday, before the market opens and after it closes, several well-known issuers will release results – their reactions can indicate prevailing market moods. Investors should focus not only on profit and revenue figures but also on management statements regarding outlooks for 2026. For instance, better-than-expected results from Disney or an optimistic forecast from Palantir regarding demand for their technologies could improve sentiment in the respective sectors (media, technology) and push broader indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher. Conversely, if companies cite slowing growth, margin compression due to costs or demand uncertainty, this could trigger profit-taking following recent rallies. With major reports from larger caps (such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) and various European banks and industrial leaders scheduled for mid-week, Monday will only provide the first signal. Investors must capture these signals and, if necessary, adjust their exposure to sectors demonstrating either unexpected strength or weakness.
• Macro Statistics for the Start of the Month. The first week of February is rich in important macroeconomic data: in addition to today’s PMIs and ISM, inflation data from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole is expected on Tuesday, while Friday will see the key US jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls for January). These indicators will help clarify the trajectory of the global economy: is inflation continuing to decelerate towards central banks’ targets while growth persists? Investors should pay specific attention to whether new data supports a “soft landing” scenario (moderate cooling without a recession). If so – low inflation alongside acceptable growth and employment rates – this provides a favourable backdrop for equities as the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy diminishes, and hopes for gradual rate cuts strengthen towards the end of the year. However, if data negatively surprises (for example, a resurgence in price growth or substantial drops in employment), markets may react sharply: volatility will increase, and investors will begin asset regrouping, moving to quality bonds while reducing exposure to riskier positions. The US jobs report holds particular significance: strong Payrolls with weak industrial data may provoke a mixed reaction (the Fed maintains rates longer, while consumer demand remains resilient), whereas weak employment numbers may amplify expectations of policy easing but raise concerns about GDP prospects.
• Strategy for CIS Investors. A calm Sunday is an opportune moment to assess one’s portfolio ahead of a series of upcoming events. Investors from CIS countries should evenly distribute key assets and reassess the balance between risky and safe instruments. The start of a new month is a time when many global funds redistribute capital, and local markets (including the MOEX) may experience additional inflows or outflows. Given heightened uncertainty (geopolitics, macro statistics, corporate reports), it may be wise to establish clear levels for stop-loss and take-profit for the most volatile positions. A well-considered action strategy for sudden news – be it breakthroughs in Ukraine negotiations, new sanctions, unexpected spikes in inflation, or other force majeure events – will help preserve capital and seize emerging opportunities. As the markets open on Monday, an investor equipped with a plan and an understanding of the global picture will navigate the flow of information more confidently and make informed decisions.