Global News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector as of 31 January 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex for Investors and Market Participants.
The end of January 2026 is marked by continued geopolitical tensions and a significant restructuring of global energy resource flows within the global fuel and energy complex. Western countries maintain strict sanctions pressure on Russia, with the European Union introducing new restrictions on energy carrier trade. Simultaneously, escalating tensions surrounding Iran in the Middle East have raised fears of supply disruptions, triggering a sharp increase in prices.
In the global oil market, after several months of relative stability, there has been a noticeable spike in prices. The benchmark Brent crude exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since July, while WTI approached $65, reaching six-month highs in light of rising risks. The European gas market is adapting to winter under new conditions, effectively without Russian gas, and has thus far maintained stability: elevated storage levels and diversification of supply sources have helped to avert shortages. However, by the end of January, gas reserves in the EU underground storage facilities decreased to approximately 44% of their total capacity—the lowest level for this date since 2022—and could dip below 30% by spring, posing a serious challenge for replenishment.
The energy transition is gaining momentum: in 2025, record capacities of renewable energy were introduced globally, although the reliable operation of energy systems still requires reliance on traditional resources. For instance, a recent anomalous cold snap in the United States prompted energy providers to sharply increase generation from coal-fired power plants to meet peak demand. In Asia, demand for coal and hydrocarbon raw materials remains elevated, supporting commodity markets despite climate agendas. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices last autumn, authorities have extended emergency measures to limit oil product exports to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors as of the end of January 2026.
The Oil Market: Prices Rising Amid Middle Eastern Risks
Global oil prices have significantly increased towards the end of January. Brent prices are holding above $70 per barrel (peaking at around $71), while WTI is trading around $65—marking the highest levels since mid-2025. This increase follows a period of relative stability during the second half of 2025, when oversupply and moderate demand kept prices around $60. The main driver of the current rally is geopolitics: the escalating conflict surrounding Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global oil trade—have led to a risk premium being factored into prices.
Nonetheless, fundamental factors in the oil market still indicate significant supply. OPEC+ countries ramped up production in the second half of 2025 in an effort to reclaim lost market shares, resulting in a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day. Additional volumes are also coming from outside the cartel: the U.S. has partially lifted restrictions on production in Venezuela, allowing its oil to return to the market, while production in America is close to record levels. Global demand for oil has slowed amid a weakening world economy (especially slower growth in China) and energy-saving measures following previous years' price shocks. Several analysts predict that without new disruptions, the average price of Brent could hover around $60–62 per barrel in 2026 due to the continuing oversupply. However, in the short term, price dynamics will depend on the evolution of the geopolitical situation. A possible escalation of conflict in the Middle East could push prices even higher, while progress in negotiations (for instance, on Iranian or Ukrainian issues) could ease market tensions. Additionally, financial factors influence prices: expectations of a looser monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve weaken the dollar, which temporarily supports commodity prices including oil. Thus, oil is trading in a higher range due to geopolitical risks, but stable supplies could curb further price increases as the abundance of available supply remains significant.
The Gas Market: Winter Stability and Challenges of Stock Replenishment
The European natural gas market is entering the final phase of winter relatively calmly, thanks to established reserves and new supply routes. By the start of the heating season, EU countries had filled their underground storage facilities (UGS) to over 90%, ensuring a margin of safety for the cold months. As of the end of January, storage levels have decreased to around 44% of total capacity, the lowest for this time of year since 2022. Nevertheless, gas exchange prices remain relatively moderate and significantly lower than peak levels last winter. This is supported by several factors: mild weather for most of the season, record purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market, and stable pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan. Thanks to the diversification of supply sources, Europe has so far successfully met current demand, compensating for the lack of Russian gas.
However, serious challenges lie ahead for the EU gas sector. If current trends persist, storage levels could drop to ~30% by March, and European companies will need to inject approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas to return to last year's filling levels. Providing such replenishment volumes without traditional Russian supplies is a formidable task. Ahead of the next heating season, the European Union is actively increasing infrastructure for receiving LNG (new regasification terminals are under construction) and concluding long-term contracts with alternative suppliers. Additionally, January confirmed the EU's strategic decision to completely halt imports of Russian gas (both pipeline and LNG) by 2027, marking the end of long-standing dependency. The volumes lost are expected to be replaced primarily through the global LNG market: the International Energy Agency anticipates that global LNG supplies will reach a new record (approximately 185 billion m3) in 2026, bolstered by the launch of export projects in the U.S., Canada, and Qatar. On the other hand, the pricing situation raises concerns: the TTF gas hub is witnessing an anomalous backwardation in price structure (summer futures are priced higher than winter), which diminishes incentives for filling storage. Experts warn that without specific support measures, such market conditions could complicate preparation for the next winter. Overall, the European gas market is currently significantly more resilient than during the 2022 crisis; however, maintaining this resilience will require further diversification of supplies, development of storage systems, and potentially coordinated actions by authorities to stimulate necessary stock levels.
International Politics: Sanctions and Energy
The sanctions standoff between Moscow and the West continues to shape the landscape of global energy. By the end of 2025, the European Union approved its 19th package of restrictive measures, a significant portion of which targets the fuel and energy sector—from tightening price caps on Russian oil to bans on exporting equipment and services for extraction. The United States and its allies have also indicated a willingness to escalate pressure: new sanctions are being discussed, including mechanisms to repurpose frozen Russian assets for funding the reconstruction of Ukraine. Although some channels of dialogue between governments remain, there are currently no real signs of easing sanctions. For markets, this means the continued segmentation of energy flows into ‘permissible’ and ‘alternative’ categories. Russian oil and gas continue to be redirected to Asia at discounted rates—to countries such as China, India, and Turkey—while European consumers have fully shifted to other sources. In effect, two parallel pricing zones have emerged: the western zone, where there is a refusal to use Russian energy sources, and the alternative zone, where Russian barrels and cubic meters find demand, albeit at lower prices and extended logistics. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring the sanctions policy, as any changes immediately affect supply routes and pricing.
Aside from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sanctions against other states also influence the energy sector. In January, the U.S. and the EU expanded their sanction lists against Iran—in light of repression against protesters and disputes over the nuclear programme—which complicates trade in Iranian oil and adds uncertainty to the market. Simultaneously, the sanctions regime against Venezuela is being gradually adjusted: following the easing of U.S. restrictions in autumn 2023, the Venezuelan oil sector began to increase production, and major companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.) are exploring new projects in the country. This is bringing back some previously lost volumes of heavy oil to the global market. Geopolitical barriers also affect corporate deals: for instance, the American investment fund Carlyle Group has agreed to acquire a majority of Lukoil’s foreign assets, which the second-largest oil company in Russia had to put up for sale due to sanctions. This example illustrates how international players are restructuring their strategies and assets under the pressure of sanctions. Overall, the energy sector remains at the forefront of global politics: sanctions, conflicts, and diplomatic decisions directly determine global oil and gas flows, amplifying the role of political risks in the investment decisions of energy sector companies.
The Energy Transition: Records and Balance
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 was marked by unprecedented growth in renewable generation. Record new capacities for solar and wind power plants have been introduced in many countries:
- EU: around 85–90 GW of renewable energy sources added over the year;
- USA: the share of renewable electricity exceeded 30% for the first time in the total energy balance;
- China: tens of gigawatts of new “green” power stations have been commissioned, with national records for renewable energy development broken.
The rapid growth of the renewable energy sector raises questions about the reliability of energy systems. During periods of calm or lack of sunshine, backup capacity from traditional power plants is still required to meet peak demand and prevent supply disruptions. For instance, during a severe cold snap in the U.S. in January 2026, grid operators were forced to increase generation from coal-fired plants by more than 30% to meet the sharp rise in electricity consumption—this case underscored the importance of having sufficient backup capacity under extreme conditions. This is why large-scale energy storage projects are actively being developed worldwide: major battery farms are being built to store electricity, and technologies for hydrogen energy storage and other carriers are being researched. The development of storage systems will smooth out fluctuations in renewable generation and enhance the resilience of energy systems as the share of renewable energy increases.
Energy companies, meanwhile, are seeking a balance between environmental goals and profitability. The experience of BP, which in 2025 announced a reduction in investments in renewable energy and wrote off several billion dollars of “green” assets, demonstrated that even industry giants must adjust their strategies. Despite the rapid growth of the clean sector, traditional oil and gas business continues to deliver the majority of profits, and shareholders demand a measured approach. “Green” projects need to be developed without compromising the financial stability of companies. The energy transition is proceeding at a rapid pace, yet the key lesson of 2025 is the necessity of a more balanced strategy that combines accelerated deployment of renewables with maintaining the reliability of energy systems and the profitability of investments in the sector.
Coal: High Demand in Asia
The global coal market in 2025 remained buoyant, despite global goals to reduce coal usage. The primary reason is the consistently high demand in Asia. Countries such as China and India continue to burn vast volumes of coal for electricity generation and industrial needs, offsetting declines in consumption in Western economies. China now accounts for nearly half of global coal consumption and, even while producing over 4 billion tonnes per year, is compelled to increase imports during peak demand periods. India is also ramping up its own production, but due to its rapidly growing economy, it is forced to procure substantial volumes of fuel from abroad—primarily from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia.
High Asian demand supports coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters, from Indonesia and Australia to South Africa, saw their revenues increase in 2025 due to stable orders from China, India, and other regional countries. In Europe, by contrast, coal's share is declining again after a temporary spike in usage in 2022–2023, thanks to the rapid development of renewable energy and the return of several nuclear power stations to service. Overall, despite the climate agenda, coal will retain a notable part of the global energy balance in the coming years, although investments in new coal capacities are gradually decreasing. Governments and companies strive to maintain a balance: meeting current demand for coal, especially in developing countries, while simultaneously accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources.
The Russian Market: Restrictions and Stabilisation
Since autumn 2025, the Russian government has been intervening in the regulation of the fuel market, curbing price growth domestically. After wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel reached record levels in August, authorities introduced a temporary ban on the export of major oil products, which was subsequently extended to 28 February 2026. The restrictions apply to the export of gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, and gasoil. These measures have already had a noticeable impact: by winter, wholesale prices for motor fuel within the country decreased significantly from peak levels. The growth of retail prices has slowed considerably, and by the year-end, the situation at petrol stations has stabilised—fuel availability has returned to normal, and the panic demand from consumers has subsided.
For oil companies and refineries, such restrictions mean lost revenue on external markets; however, authorities are demanding that businesses "tighten their belts" for the sake of price stability domestically. The production cost of oil at most Russian fields remains low, so even with Russian export oil prices below $40 per barrel, there are no direct losses, and profitability can be maintained. Nevertheless, the reduction in export revenues jeopardises the implementation of new projects that require higher global prices and access to foreign markets for profitability. The government is refraining from directly subsidising the sector, asserting that the situation is under control and that energy companies are still making profits despite reduced exports. The domestic fuel and energy sector is adapting to new conditions. The main task for 2026 is to maintain a balance between curbing internal energy prices and supporting export revenues, which are critically important for the budget and the development of the sector.
