Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for 23 December 2025. Key Focus: Preliminary US GDP Estimate for Q3, Minutes from the Latest Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Key Consumer Confidence and Industrial Activity Indicators in the US, as well as Reports from Select Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
On Tuesday, the markets will be flooded with a significant block of macroeconomic statistics from the US that could set the trading direction ahead of the Christmas holidays. Investors will be focused on the first official estimate of US GDP for the third quarter of 2025, which has been delayed due to a pause in the operations of US government institutions. In addition to GDP, several indicators—from durable goods orders and industrial production to consumer confidence indices—will provide a comprehensive picture of the state of the US economy by the year's end. In the Asia-Pacific region, market participants will scrutinise the tone of the minutes from the latest meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for clues on future monetary policy. On the corporate front, there is a lull: in the US, only a few second-tier companies will publish their reports, while new major releases are not expected in Europe, Asia, and the Russian market. The combination of these factors will determine investor sentiment, who must align macro data with the prospects of Fed interest rates, dollar dynamics, commodity prices, and overall risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 03:30 — Australia: RBA Meeting Minutes.
- 16:15 — USA: ADP Employment Indicator (Weekly Report).
- 16:30 — USA: Durable Goods Orders for October.
- 16:30 — USA: Housing Starts for September.
- 16:30 — USA: Q3 2025 GDP (Preliminary Estimate).
- 17:15 — USA: Industrial Production for November.
- 18:00 — USA: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (December).
- 18:00 — USA: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (December).
- 00:30 (Wed) — USA: Weekly Oil Stock Data from the API.
US: Q3 GDP and Economic Dynamics
- Preliminary GDP (Q3 2025): The first estimate of US economic growth for the third quarter will clarify how robustly the economy has ended the year. A solid annual growth rate (around 3-4%) is expected, reflecting a recovery from the downturn at the beginning of 2025. Investors will pay particular attention to the GDP composition: stable household consumption and growth in business investments will confirm the economy's resilience, while weakness in these areas would signal emerging deceleration. The unusually late release of GDP (moved to late December due to statistical delays) adds intrigue and has the potential to trigger increased volatility in the US stock market and Treasury bond market.
- Domestic Demand and Inflation: The GDP expenditure components (personal consumption, capital investment) will be assessed in the light of inflation trends. If GDP growth is accompanied by moderate core inflation, this will support expectations of a "soft landing" and a potential transition by the Fed to rate cuts in the second half of 2026. However, excessively high rates of economic expansion might heighten concerns of overheating and tighter Fed policy, which could provoke an increase in Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
- Impact of External Trade and Inventories: Markets will pay special attention to the contributions of the external sector and inventory changes to the overall GDP dynamics. A significant contribution from exports or a reduction in imports will improve the trade balance, supporting industrial and commodity companies (particularly in light of the recent weakening of the US dollar). Meanwhile, significant growth in goods inventories could signal demand saturation and the risk of production slowdown ahead. It’s crucial for investors to distinguish between one-off factors and sustainable trends embedded in these components to adjust strategies for the start of 2026.
US Manufacturing Indicators and Housing Market
- Durable Goods Orders (October): The new orders for durable goods indicator reflects corporate capital expenditure and demand for long-lasting goods (from cars to equipment). A modest increase in orders is expected following a decline the previous month, which would indicate a recovery in industrial activity in the fourth quarter. Special focus will be placed on the core orders category (Core Capital Goods) excluding defence and aerospace—any sustained growth signals business confidence and investment plans. For the markets, positive dynamics in orders will be beneficial for industrial sector stocks and the Dow Jones, while weak data may heighten concerns over stagnation in manufacturing.
- Housing Construction (Housing Starts): The data on new home starts for September (postponed for publication until December) will reflect the state of the US housing market against a backdrop of high mortgage rates. If the number of new constructions has increased significantly, it would indicate some adaptation by developers and buyers to expensive loans, supporting the stocks of developers and related sectors. Conversely, a continued decline in Housing Starts would confirm that the housing sector remains under pressure—this signal could impact the shares of construction companies, building material manufacturers, and indirectly the consumer sector (through household wealth effect).
- Industrial Production (November): The Fed's report on industrial output for November will complement the picture of the manufacturing sector's state. In October, the industrial production index grew thanks to energy and investors expect this trend to continue or, at least, stabilise. A crucial detail will be the figures for manufacturing: an increase in factory output will indicate rising demand and a depletion of stock inventories, while a decline would be a worrying sign ahead of the new year. Market responses to this data will manifest in the sectoral dynamics of stocks: improvements in industrial production will support the industrial and commodity segments of the S&P 500, while weakness might increase interest in defensive instruments.
Consumer Confidence and US Labour Market
- Consumer Confidence Index (December): The fresh consumer confidence index from the Conference Board will show the mood of American households at year-end. A slight improvement is expected from an autumn dip: leading up to the holidays, consumers traditionally feel more optimistic due to discounts and bonuses; however, high inflation and costly credit still restrain enthusiasm. If the figure exceeds expectations, it would be a positive signal for retail companies and the service sector (more spending leads to higher revenues). Conversely, a decline in the confidence index may indicate consumer caution and a tendency to save, making investors wary regarding economic prospects at the start of 2026.
- Labour Market: ADP Data and Regional Indicators: The weekly ADP employment report will provide a timely assessment of hiring trends in the US private sector. Recent publications indicated a slowdown in job creation – if this trend continues (with new job numbers close to zero or negative), this will correspond with the broader picture of a cooling labour market. Conversely, consistently positive ADP Weekly figures indicate that job strength is remaining, supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for December will help gauge the situation at the regional level: a rise in the index into positive territory signals a revival in industry in the Southeast US, while a decline reinforces fears of a downturn in manufacturing. Collectively, labour and regional activity indicators will help recalibrate forecasts regarding the Fed's decisions at upcoming meetings as the central bank considers a cooling labour market in shifting policy course.
- Market Reaction to Consumer and Labour Data: For stock markets, balance is crucial: moderate weakening of consumer confidence and hiring may even please investors, as it lowers the likelihood of new rate hikes from the Fed. However, overly weak figures could create recession fears, impacting the shares of cyclical companies (retail, automotive, industrial). Optimistic indicators (high Consumer Confidence, robust hiring) would support stocks, particularly those focussed on domestic demand, in the short term but may provoke bond sell-offs due to fears of an economic "overheating." Thus, traders will seek a middle ground in incoming statistics, responding sectorally depending on the surprise nature of the data.
Australia: RBA Minutes and Currency Market
- RBA Rhetoric and Rate Outlook: The minutes of the RBA's December meeting will unveil the details of the Australian regulators' discussions. Although rates likely remained unchanged at the meeting, the tone of the minutes will reveal the balance of opinions: whether concerns about overheating risks were debated or, conversely, the focus shifted to slowing inflation and support for growth. If the minutes indicate increased concern over weak GDP and labour market figures, markets may price in a higher probability of RBA rate cuts in 2026. More "hawkish" tones (emphasis on still high inflation and readiness to raise rates if necessary) would be a surprise, potentially strengthening the Australian dollar and boosting Australian bond yields.
- Impact on AUD and Regional Assets: The Australian dollar (AUD) and the local ASX 200 index will react to the contents of the minutes. A soft, "dovish" protocol (hinting at a long pause or even possible easing of policy) typically weakens the AUD, which is positive for export-oriented sectors of the Australian economy (mining, agriculture). At the same time, this may bolster the Australian stock market, as low rates enhance stock valuations. If it turns out that RBA members maintain a tough stance, the AUD will gain momentum, while shares in Sydney may decline slightly due to the prospect of more expensive credit. Indirectly, signals from the RBA's minutes also affect other commodity currencies—such as the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and Canadian dollar (CAD)—setting the tone for movements in the currency market during the Asian session.
- Global Context of Central Banks: Investors from the CIS and Europe will also pay attention to the Australian minutes, although they are released early in Moscow time. Australia often serves as a "leading indicator" for monetary trends in developed countries, so a softer RBA policy may heighten expectations that other central banks (for instance, the Bank of Canada or even the Fed) will begin to ease by mid-2026. Hence, any significant revelations in the document will be considered by global market participants when formulating strategies for the coming year, especially in the commodity currencies segment and related industries.
Corporate Reports: US and Other Markets
- USA (NYSE/NASDAQ): On 23 December, no significant reports are expected from major public companies in the US, though a few second-tier enterprises will publish their financial results. Among them is **Limoneira Company (LMNR)** – a Californian agribusiness holding growing citrus fruits; investors will look to see if the company has managed to reduce losses amid stabilising prices for lemons and avocados. Also reporting will be **Good Times Restaurants (GTIM)**, which owns regional burger bar chains—market attention will focus on sales dynamics in existing restaurants and the measures the company is taking to maintain margins amid rising costs. Another release of note is from **Digerati Technologies (DTGI)**, a small cloud infrastructure tech holding: shareholders will be interested in the outcomes of the recent business reorganisation and the new management's plans to achieve profitability. While the scale of these issuers is small, their reporting may locally influence narrow sectors (agriculture, foodservice, telecom) and serve as an indicator of the health of small and medium-sized enterprises in the US.
- Europe: On European exchanges, there is an information vacuum on Tuesday—no companies from the top tier of the Euro Stoxx 50 index are scheduled to release financial results on 23 December. Ahead of Christmas, business activity in Europe is slowing down, and investors are shifting focus to external factors, primarily US macro data and currency fluctuations. Some smaller issuers may release reports or operational updates (for example, individual developers or real estate investment funds in the UK and Germany), but they are unlikely to have a wide impact on the market. European trading venues will likely respond to the overall global sentiment, shaped by the US and energy price dynamics.
- Asia: In the Asia-Pacific region, the period of mass corporate reporting has already ended, and no significant publications from companies in the Nikkei 225 or MSCI Asia Pacific are expected on 23 December. In Japan, most corporations reported semi-annual results back in November, and major players will present new financial results only after the New Year. Chinese and Asian markets on this day will primarily focus on external signals—US statistics and currency/commodity dynamics. Therefore, the Asian session is expected to proceed relatively calmly regarding corporate events, allowing participants to concentrate on macro news and political factors in the region.
- Russia (MOEX): The end of December traditionally does not provide investors on the Russian stock market with significant reports. Most issuers from the MOEX index have already disclosed their results for the first nine months of 2025 in the autumn, with annual reports only due in 2026. On 23 December, there may be some corporate news items: several companies are holding board meetings ahead of the holidays. Specifically, a number of large domestic companies are considering interim dividends for past quarters—any announcement of dividends (for instance, for the first nine months of 2025) could locally boost the shares of the respective issuer. However, the overall information picture on the Moscow Exchange remains calm, and the domestic market will be looking towards external markets and oil prices to determine the short-term trend.
Other Regions and Indices: Investor's Perspective
- Euro Stoxx 50 and European Markets: In the absence of corporate drivers, European investors will focus on macroeconomic factors. Strong data from the US (particularly GDP and consumer confidence) may support European banking and industrial sectors, signalling sustained demand for exports. Conversely, any signs of slowing global economy (should US GDP disappoint) would prompt capital reallocation into defensive assets in Europe—bonds, utilities, and telecom stocks. The EUR/USD exchange rate is also in focus: continued strengthening of the euro against soft signals from the Fed could pressure Eurozone exporter stocks, while a stronger dollar would ease the conditions for European manufacturers. Overall, stock exchanges in Frankfurt, Paris, and London on 23 December will move under the influence of external news, as the internal news flow remains sparse.
- Nikkei 225 and Asian Indices: For Japanese and Asian markets, this Tuesday is more of a pause before the year's end. The Nikkei 225 may react to changes in the yen’s exchange rate: if US data leads to a dollar strengthening, this would benefit export-oriented Japanese corporations (automotive, electronics), thereby supporting the Nikkei Index. In the Chinese stock markets and other Asian countries, investor sentiment will be shaped by a combination of factors: the RBA minutes set the tone for the Australian and regional banking sector, commodity prices (oil, metals) will impact commodity companies, and the dynamics of the US Nasdaq may reflect on technology stocks in Asia. Overall, there are few significant local events, so Asian indices will serve as a "barometer" of global risk—an increase in risk appetite will push them upwards, while a retreat from risk due to disappointing data will drag quotes down.
- Russian Market (MOEX): Domestic indices IMOEX and RTS will focus on global trends and oil price dynamics amid a calm internal news background. Any significant fluctuations in oil prices related to the API report or demand expectations will immediately impact shares in the oil and gas sector, which holds substantial weight in the Moscow Exchange index. If Brent crude holds high levels (for example, in the $80–85 per barrel range) due to declining stocks and optimism about demand, this will support Russian blue chips and the rouble. Conversely, weakness in the commodity market will apply pressure to Russian stocks. Furthermore, external signals from the US Fed and ECB (in the context of GDP and inflation data) might influence investor sentiment in Russia through the channel of global risk appetite: an improved external backdrop would increase demand for risk assets, including Russian ones, while growing concerns would make players reduce positions in emerging markets.
Day Results: What Investors Should Focus On
- US GDP and Orders: The key factor of the day is the release of the US GDP for Q3 2025. A stronger than expected growth (above ~4%) may provoke a reevaluation of Fed rate forecasts, resulting in simultaneous increases in bond yields and support for cyclical stocks. At the same time, we are monitoring durable goods orders: a robust increase would confirm the trend of recovering investment activity, while weakness in this indicator could raise concerns about the industrial sector.
- Consumer Sentiment: The December consumer confidence index and accompanying data (retail sales, if available) will indicate direction for consumer goods and services companies. Investors should assess whether households remain willing to spend amid high living costs. Any signs of cooling consumer demand may signal caution regarding retail chains, automotive dealers, and travel companies, while unexpected increases in optimism could provide momentum for their stocks.
- RBA Minutes and Currencies: The morning summary of the RBA meeting may set the tone for trading in the currency market on Tuesday. If the protocol is softer than expected, a decline in AUD and NZD can be anticipated, which will impact commodity prices (due to cheaper production) and currency pairs in developing markets. For global asset investors, the RBA signal is another confirmation (or refutation) of the onset of a policy easing cycle worldwide. It is also essential to consider the impact of the rouble's exchange rate: changes in oil prices and the overall risk appetite, shaped by external events of the day, may affect the rouble, influencing the local debt and equity market in Russia.
- Oil and Commodity Markets: The combination of news on the day directly involves the commodity segment. The API report in the evening will provide a preliminary assessment of the US oil market state—significant reductions in oil or gasoline stocks will support oil price growth, while an unexpected increase in stocks could trigger a downward correction. Investors in the oil and gas sector should pre-determine target price ranges and potential defensive positions, considering that liquidity tends to decrease before the holiday season, leading to sharper than usual price fluctuations. Attention should also be paid to industrial metals: no data from China will be released on this day, so metals will largely respond to figures from US industry and general risk appetite.
- Risk Management Ahead of Holidays: 23 December combines a high volume of statistics with the approaching low liquidity holiday period. Investors are advised to exercise caution: volatility may increase due to a lower number of active participants. It is wise to identify levels at which positions will be reassessed or hedged, use stop orders to protect profits, and avoid excessive leverage. As the trading day—and effectively the entire year—draws to a close, it is prudent to lock in results and rebalance portfolios to welcome the New Year holidays without unnecessary stress and with a well-thought-out plan for January 2026.
