Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of 22–26 December 2025: LPR Rate Decision in China, US GDP and Inflation, Macroeconomic Data from Europe and Russia, Influence of Christmas and Short Trading Sessions on Global Markets
Weekly Overview for 22–26 December 2025: Key Events and Reports
The upcoming week is characterised by reduced trading activity due to the holidays; however, there are several significant events for investors to consider. In focus will be the People's Bank of China's decision regarding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the final estimate of US GDP for Q3, the PCE Price Index (a key inflation measure in the US), as well as Catholic Christmas and a new trade agreement between the EAEU and Indonesia. The corporate earnings season is nearly wrapped up: no major reports are anticipated from companies in the US, Europe, Asia, or Russia, shifting the focus towards macroeconomic statistics and geo-economic news. A noteworthy event will be the signing of a free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – a step that bolsters economic ties between Southeast Asia and the post-Soviet states. Macroeconomic data and central bank decisions may impact the dynamics of global stock indices – from the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 to Nikkei 225 and the Moscow Exchange index – although market reactions may be subdued due to low liquidity during the holiday season. Let us examine each day’s events in more detail and their potential impact on market conditions.
Monday, 22 December 2025: LPR Rate in China and UK GDP
At the start of the week, attention will be focused on Asian and European indicators. Early in the morning, China will announce its decision on the key Loan Prime Rate (LPR), setting the tone for financial conditions in the region. In the UK, final GDP figures for Q3 will be released, providing an assessment of economic growth as the year concludes. No significant corporate reports are expected on this day, thus market dynamics will depend on macroeconomic news. Additionally, news of the signing of the free trade agreement between Indonesia and EAEU countries will influence the global agenda, emphasising the strengthening of international economic integration.
- 04:15 MSK – China: LPR decision. It is expected that the rate will remain unchanged; any unexpected changes could impact the yuan, shares in China's banking sector, and set the mood for Asian markets.
- 10:00 MSK – UK: GDP Q3 2025 (final estimate). Preliminary figures indicated moderate economic growth; any revision of this figure could affect the pound’s exchange rate and the performance of FTSE 100.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Chicago Fed Business Barometer (for November). This index reflects the overall dynamics of the US economy; values around zero indicate a moderate growth pace, with deviations potentially influencing short-term investor sentiment.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: PCE Price Index. A key inflation indicator for the Fed; slowing price growth will solidify expectations for a softer monetary policy, whereas accelerating inflation may trigger concerns in the bond and stock markets.
Investor Summary: Monday begins without major upheavals – economic events are limited, and global markets are likely to trade within a narrow range. The LPR decision in China is expected to confirm the current course of monetary policy, likely not causing sharp movements in Asian markets. The UK GDP final estimate is unlikely to surprise investors, serving as a background indicator for the European market. The inflation index PCE in the US will be a significant reference point: its moderate dynamics will support a positive mood, while an unexpectedly high figure could increase volatility even amid reducing activity ahead of the holidays. The EAEU–Indonesia agreement is more of a strategic nature and does not directly influence market prices in the short term, but underscores a trend towards strengthening trade relations in the Eurasian space.
Tuesday, 23 December 2025: US GDP and Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday will be the most data-intensive day of the week concerning macroeconomic statistics, particularly in the US. Investors will receive a substantial block of data regarding the US economy, including labour market and industrial reports as well as the final GDP report on economic growth. In focus will be the final estimate of US GDP for Q3, which will confirm or adjust previous growth estimates, along with durable goods orders and industrial production figures reflecting the state of the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the consumer confidence index for December will be released, illustrating household sentiment on the cusp of the holidays. Before the main trading hours, the Asia-Pacific region will react to signals from Australia following the publication of RBA meeting minutes. With no major corporate reports expected, macroeconomic releases will dictate market movements on Tuesday.
- 03:30 MSK – Australia: RBA meeting minutes. This document will clarify the regulator's assessment of the economic situation and inflation; any hints at potential rate changes will influence the Australian dollar and market sentiment.
- 16:15 MSK – USA: ADP Employment Change (weekly figure). An unofficial estimate of US labour market dynamics; stable employment conditions will reassure investors, while a rise in claims or a decline in employment could heighten concerns over economic slowdown.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Durable Goods Orders for November. A vital industrial indicator reflecting demand for long-lasting goods (e.g., equipment and machinery). An uptick in orders signals business confidence and supports industrial sector shares, while a decline indicates caution among companies regarding capital expenditures.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Housing Starts for November. An indicator of activity in the construction sector; an increase in new builds indicates a healthy real estate market, while declines may be seen as signs of an economic cooling or builder caution.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: GDP Q3 2025 (final estimate). A confident economic growth rate (+3% year-on-year expected) is anticipated. Any significant revision to GDP growth could alter market sentiment: stronger growth may spur risk appetite, while a lower estimate could raise questions about the robustness of the economic upswing.
- 17:15 MSK – USA: Industrial Production for November. This data will show the state of the industrial sector. Moderate production growth indicates stability, while declining activity could exacerbate recessionary fears.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) for December. This measure assesses American consumer sentiment ahead of the holidays; rising confidence will boost retail stocks and the overall market, while a drop may signal more cautious consumer spending.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December. A regional leading indicator of industrial activity; strong readings will support optimism in the manufacturing sector, while weak figures may highlight specific production issues.
- 00:30 MSK (already on 24 December) – USA: Weekly API Oil Inventories Report. Unofficial data from the American Petroleum Institute on changes in crude oil inventories from the past week. A significant inventory reduction may push oil prices higher, indicating strong demand, while rising stocks could exert downward pressure on oil prices.
Investor Summary: On Tuesday, markets will need to process a vast amount of economic information. Strong macro data from the US (e.g. GDP growth above expectations or increases in orders) may provide a new impetus for the market and support index rises, bolstering confidence in economic resilience. Conversely, weak data—be it falling consumer confidence or a decline in industrial output—could provoke investor caution and a reallocation of assets to safe havens. The RBA minutes early in the day will set the tone in the Australian market and for commodity currencies, but the day's main influence will shift to the American session. Generally, with no corporate reports scheduled, it is macroeconomic surprises that will shape sentiment: positive statistical trends will support risk appetite, while a series of disappointing indicators may provoke profit-taking before the long holiday break.
Wednesday, 24 December 2025: Bank of Japan Minutes and Unemployment Claims (Christmas Eve)
On Wednesday, the global markets will observe Christmas Eve, leading to a decrease in trading activity. Several exchanges, including Germany, Switzerland, Brazil, and Argentina, will be closed all day, while trading sessions in the US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand will be shorter. Nevertheless, reports released on this day could locally influence dynamics: early in the morning, the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes from its last meeting, giving insight into the regulator’s sentiments, while during the US trading session, investors will monitor weekly unemployment statistics and oil inventory data. Additionally, important economic indicators for November are expected from Russia. Given the thin market, any reactions to news may be amplified by low liquidity, though major moves are improbable due to the upcoming holiday.
- 02:50 MSK – Japan: Bank of Japan Minutes. The minutes from the Japanese central bank's meeting will reveal details of discussions on monetary policy. Investors will seek hints about possible changes to the BoJ's ultra-loose stance; any signals regarding plans to adjust policy could affect yen rates and the Nikkei 225 dynamics.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 20 December). This benchmark reflects the weekly state of the US labour market, published a day earlier than usual due to the holiday. A consistently low level of claims will affirm employment resilience and support confidence in the economy, while a rise in claims may raise concerns about a cooling labour market.
- 18:30 MSK – USA: EIA Oil Inventory Data. Weekly statistics from the Energy Information Administration on commercial oil and petroleum products inventories. A sharp decline in inventories will bolster oil prices, signalling high demand or reduced supply, while an increase could weaken the oil market. Market volatility is possible, although many traders may have already exited prior to the holiday.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Industrial Production for November. This indicator reflects production levels in Russian industry. An acceleration in industrial growth will indicate economic revival towards year-end, while weak results may heighten expectations for stimulus measures from the government and the Central Bank of Russia.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Consumer Inflation for November (CPI index). Publication of Russia's inflation level for the month; price dynamics are crucial for understanding the Central Bank of Russia's monetary policy course. A slowdown in inflation will fortify expectations for eased policy (or a maintained rate), while an unexpected rise in prices may fuel discussions about the need for stricter measures to contain inflationary pressure.
Investor Summary: Wednesday is marked by reduced activity and preparation for the holiday pause, yet several signals will still reach the markets. The Bank of Japan’s minutes may influence trading in Asia: any hints at policy changes could markedly shift yen rates and the shares of Japanese companies, although the BoJ typically exercises caution. In the US, data on unemployment and oil will provide fresh insight into economic conditions: significant deterioration of indicators could unsettle market participants, yet given the pre-holiday mood, most investors may be inclined to overlook secondary fluctuations. Russian statistical releases are important locally—they help assess the health of the Russian economy towards year-end—but their influence on global markets is minimal. Overall, investors are advised to exercise caution: in a thin market, even small news can provoke disproportionate price movements, so the main strategy for the day will be to wait until after the Christmas holidays.
Thursday, 25 December 2025: Catholic Christmas (Global Markets Closed)
Thursday is marked by Catholic Christmas, and the vast majority of global financial markets will be closed. US, European (including the UK, Germany, France, and others), as well as several Asian and Latin American markets will not operate due to the holiday. No trading sessions will take place on currency, equity, or commodity markets; the publication of economic data and corporate reports is not scheduled for this day. Investors worldwide are taking a break, and trading activity is reduced to zero.
Investor Summary: The complete suspension of trading on 25 December means no market movements or news will be expected. This day offers investors a moment to step back from the market climate and reassess investment strategies away from market bustle. It is recommended to take no actions—key decisions should be postponed until exchanges resume operations. The Christmas break traditionally serves as a period of low volatility, thus, no changes in portfolios are likely to occur on this day.
Friday, 26 December 2025: Boxing Day – Public Holiday in Europe, Calm Markets
On Friday, global markets gradually return to work after Christmas, yet in several countries it remains a public holiday. December 26 is Boxing Day in the UK, Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and others), and many countries in Europe, hence exchanges in these regions remain closed. American markets, as well as exchanges in some Asian countries, operate as usual, but overall activity remains low. No significant macroeconomic publications or corporate events are scheduled, and investors in open jurisdictions trade based on previously obtained information. Given the reduced number of participants, slight price fluctuations may occur but without strong fundamental drivers.
Investor Summary: The last day of the week is relatively calm and inert. The decreased number of active exchanges leads to low trading volumes and neutral dynamics across major indices. In the US, where markets are open, only local movements may occur influenced by remaining macro data from the week—investors might continue to react to the GDP or consumer confidence figures published on Tuesday. However, in general, Friday's session is more technical: major players have already locked in results ahead of the holidays, and few are inclined to open new positions. Investors should pay attention to maintaining portfolio balance before the end of the year: this current pause is an excellent moment to assess the year’s outcomes and prepare for January's volatility. Following the holidays, global markets will enter the final week of the year, where movements may stem from closing annual books, thus Friday, 26 December, can be perceived as the "calm before the storm" ahead of the final days of 2025.
