Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday 13 February 2026: CPI Inflation in the USA and Russia, Decision on the Central Bank of Russia’s Rate, Eurozone GDP, and Earnings Releases from Major Public Companies. Analysis of Impact on the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX.
Friday, 13 February 2026, for investors is less about the symbolism of the date and more about a rare concentration of macro signals capable of swiftly shifting expectations regarding interest rates, currencies, and risk appetite. During a single session, the market will receive: inflation (CPI) figures from Switzerland and the USA, GDP estimates for the Eurozone, the Central Bank of Russia's decision on its key rate, and a press conference from the regulator, followed in the evening by the CPI for Russia. On the backdrop of these releases, reports from several major public companies in the USA, Canada, and Europe, as well as a block of earnings from Japan, will also be published. This combination often amplifies intraday volatility, increases sensitivity to data surprises, and provokes rotations across various sectors (finance, real estate, consumer demand, energy infrastructure, commodity stories).
Economic Events of the Day: Schedule in Moscow Time
- 10:30 — Switzerland: CPI for January
- 13:00 — Eurozone: GDP (estimate/revision) for Q4
- 13:30 — Russia: Central Bank of Russia's decision on the key rate
- 15:00 — Russia: Central Bank of Russia’s press conference
- 16:30 — USA: CPI for January
- 19:00 — Russia: CPI for January
For a global portfolio, this sequence creates a "chain" of influence: first Europe with data from Switzerland and the Eurozone, then Russia through the rate decision and the Central Bank’s rhetoric, followed by a key impulse from the USA regarding CPI, after which Russian inflation may adjust expectations regarding the trajectory of interest rates within the country closer to the end of the day.
Switzerland: CPI as a Signal for Safe Haven Currencies and European Assets
Swiss inflation is traditionally important not only locally. The franc is often viewed by the market as a safe-haven currency, and any deviations in CPI from expectations can quickly reflect on interest rate expectations and CHF dynamics. For investors, this primarily channels through currency movements: the EUR/CHF trajectory and the overall sentiment regarding risk-off/risk-on during the European session. If CPI exceeds consensus, the market tends to price in a tighter trajectory for financial conditions—this could put pressure on high-value segments in Europe through rising yields. Conversely, a weaker CPI reduces the risk of “rate overestimation” and typically supports cyclical stories, provided the macro backdrop does not deteriorate.
Eurozone: GDP as a Measure of Demand and Rate Resilience
The publication of the Eurozone GDP is key to assessing how well the economy is digesting the existing financial conditions. For the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader European basket, it is not solely about the decimal growth figures but rather the balance: consumption, investment, and exports. A stronger-than-expected GDP typically increases the likelihood of a more "patient" monetary policy stance, which can drive yields upwards and trigger selective revaluation of "long" growth stories. Conversely, a weaker GDP enhances the appeal of defensive sectors and supports expectations of a softer rate trajectory, often benefiting sectors sensitive to interest rates, including real estate and certain tech stocks in Europe. For investors from the CIS, the currency aspect is also critical: EUR/USD movements set the tone for a range of commodity and export stories in emerging markets.
Russia: Central Bank Rate Decision and Press Conference as Drivers for MOEX and the Rouble
At 13:30 Moscow time, the Central Bank of Russia’s decision on the key rate will be announced, followed by a press conference at 15:00, which often provides more insights to the market than the numerical figure itself. If the regulator signals a prolonged period of tight conditions, this supports the rouble through interest rate differentials but simultaneously raises the discounting of future cash flows and worsens sensitivity in domestic demand. In such an environment, exporters and companies with high foreign currency revenues tend to benefit, while sectors reliant on the credit cycle (such as some developers, consumer stories, and companies with high debt loads) become more vulnerable.
If the rhetoric shifts towards a softer trajectory (or the market receives signals of an earlier pivot), short-term support could benefit "domestic demand" and various financial assets, although exchange rate risk increases, heightening the significance of the evening CPI release for Russia: weak disinflation accompanied by soft rhetoric typically amplifies uncertainty around the rouble and yields.
USA: CPI as the Day's Main Global Trigger for S&P 500 and Yields
The American CPI at 16:30 Moscow time is a key release for global risk appetite, the dollar, and the yield curve. The market generally does not trade "inflation as it is" but rather the deviation from expectations and the implications for the future interest rate path. A "hotter" CPI typically results in rising yields and a stronger USD, which tends to pressure high-duration stocks (often tech and some consumer segments) and increase volatility in the S&P 500 index. Conversely, a "softer" CPI supports risk, improves conditions for growth multiples, and often boosts demand for quality growth stocks.
It is also important to note that a portion of corporate earnings reports in North America will be published before the US market opens—meaning the market will receive "micro" news prior to the CPI, and then may reassess their significance in light of the macro surprise. This increases the likelihood of sharp intraday price movements for stocks, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors.
Russia: Evening CPI as a Clarification of the Inflation Profile and Rates
The publication of the CPI for Russia at 19:00 Moscow time concludes the chain of macro events. For local assets, this could represent a "second round" of reactions following the Central Bank's decision: if inflation comes in above expectations, the market often revises expectations regarding the real interest rate and the duration of the tight regime. Practically, this affects government bonds (OFZ), the banking sector, credit spreads, and the rouble. If CPI confirms a slowdown, the chances of a more stable rate profile increase, which enhances predictability for companies in domestic demand and alleviates pressure on multiples.
Corporate Reports: Pre-Market (USA/Canada/Europe) and the Asian Session
Below are key public companies whose earnings reports are tied to 13 February 2026. For investors, not only profit figures are important, but also forecasts (guidance), comments on demand, margin, and capital expenditures—these factors shape the mid-term revaluation of sectors.
Before the US Market Opens (Pre-Market) — USA and Canada
- Moderna (MRNA) — focus on portfolio revenue, expenditure rates, and pipeline forecasts; sensitive to overall risk-on after the CPI.
- The Wendy’s Company (WEN) — margins, comparable sales dynamics, consumer demand, and pricing pressure comments.
- Cameco (CCJ) — uranium cycle, contracts, and price dynamics; often perceived as a commodity hedge and a beneficiary of the energy transition.
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) — demand for auto components and quality of operational recovery; sensitive to consumer behaviour and financing costs.
- Enbridge (ENB) — dividends, capital expenditures, cash flow stability; "income infrastructure" depends on rates through required returns.
- TC Energy (TRP) — tariff base and investment program; investors look for cash flow stability and regulatory risks.
- Magna International (MGA) — automotive production chain, orders, and margins; sensitive to the cycle and rates through automotive demand.
- Sensient Technologies (SXT) — defensive profile of consumer goods/ingredients, but margins and currency effects are crucial.
- Colliers (CIGI) — real estate market and transactions; highly sensitive to rates and financing expectations.
- Essent Group (ESNT) — mortgage insurance; dependent on the housing market and credit quality.
Europe: Major Issuers
- NatWest Group (NWG) — banking margins, asset quality, and cost of risk; reaction is amplified with changes in rate expectations.
- Norsk Hydro (NHY) — aluminium, energy costs, and global demand; important for assessing the commodity cycle in Europe.
Asia: Key Companies in Japan (Results During the Asian Session)
- ENEOS Holdings — energy sector, refining margins, and capital expenditure strategy.
- Dentsu Group — advertising market and corporate budgets; an indicator of business activity.
- Kirin Holdings — consumer sector, cost inflation, and demand.
- Terumo — medical technology and demand stability in healthcare.
Key Events of the Day: Where to Expect Maximum Volatility
- 13:30–15:00 Moscow time — Russia: rate decision and press conference. The market reassesses not only the decision but also the Central Bank's "reaction function" to inflation and the currency.
- 16:30 Moscow time — USA: CPI. Generally the main impulse for yields and the dollar, rapidly transmitting into stocks, commodities, and currencies of emerging markets.
- 19:00 Moscow time — Russia: CPI. Clarifies the inflation profile following the Central Bank's decision and impacts expectations on the duration of the tight regime.
- Reports before the US market opens — pre-market movements in specific stocks can reveal "local trends," but the CPI might amplify or negate them.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
The focus of the day is on risk management and discipline regarding exposures, rather than attempting to "guess" a single release. Practically this means: (1) before the Central Bank of Russia’s decision, check currency limits and portfolio sensitivity to rates; (2) in the interim before the US CPI—monitor the Central Bank's rhetorical tone and the rouble/yield reaction as an early sentiment indicator; (3) following the US CPI, focus primarily on yields and the dollar, as they set the direction for global risk-on/risk-off scenarios; (4) after the Russian CPI—assess how expectations around the real interest rate are shifting and which sectors of the MOEX appear more resilient in the updated configuration.
From the perspective of the global equity market (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225), the key scenario of the day is dictated by whether US inflation presents a “surprise” relative to expectations. Corporate reports from major issuers add selective opportunities, but on such a macro day, it is typically rates, yields, and currency that determine the overall risk picture.
