Economic Events and Corporate Reports - March 4, 2026 S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225 and MOEX

Economic Calendar and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, 4 March 2026: Global PMI, ADP and ISM Services in the USA, EIA Oil Stocks, CPI Inflation in Russia, and the Fed's Beige Book - Key Drivers for the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

Wednesday, 4 March 2026, creates a "through-line" macro-story for global markets: in Asia, investors are comparing business activity dynamics (PMI) with Australia's growth rates; in Europe, they are assessing demand resilience through service PMI, unemployment, and producer price inflation (PPI); while the USA provides several volatility drivers simultaneously — ADP employment, S&P Global PMI, ISM Services PMI, and the Fed's Beige Book. For investors from the CIS, this day is additionally important due to the publication of inflation (CPI) in Russia and the relationship between "oil — rouble — yields" amid the EIA report on stocks.

In the corporate sphere, attention shifts to the financial results of major publicly traded companies: the US technology sector sets the tone with Broadcom's results, while key reports from Bayer and adidas become significant in Europe. The combination of macro-indicators and corporate forecasts could notably influence the short-term direction of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and the MOEX index.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 01:00 — Australia: Services/Composite PMI (February).
2. 03:30 — Australia: GDP (Q4 2024).
3. 04:45 — China: Caixin Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI (February).
4. 08:00 — India: Services/Composite PMI (February).
5. 09:00 — Russia: Services/Composite PMI (February).
6. 10:30 — Switzerland: Consumer inflation CPI (February).
7. 11:55 — Germany: Services/Composite PMI (February).
8. 12:00 — Eurozone: Services/Composite PMI (February).
9. 12:30 — United Kingdom: Services/Composite PMI (February).
10. 13:00 — Eurozone: Producer Inflation (PPI) (January).
11. 13:00 — Eurozone: Unemployment (January).
12. 16:00 — Brazil: Services/Composite PMI (February).
13. 16:15 — USA: ADP Non-farm Employment (February).
14. 17:30 — Canada: Services/Composite PMI (February).
15. 17:45 — USA: S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite PMI (February).
16. 18:00 — USA: ISM Services PMI (February).
17. 18:30 — USA: EIA Oil Stocks (weekly).
18. 19:00 — Russia: Consumer inflation CPI.
19. 22:00 — USA: Fed's Beige Book.

Asia-Pacific Focus: Australia, China, India

Asia opens the day with three clusters of data. Firstly, PMI for services and composite indices provide real-time signals about demand and business load at the start of the year. Secondly, Australia’s GDP serves as a marker of the resilience of the domestic cycle and the economy's sensitivity to interest rates and external trade. Thirdly, China's Caixin PMI is traditionally viewed by the market as a "temperature" gauge for the private sector, and its surprises can quickly reflect in industrial metal prices and sentiment towards Asian equities.

• For Nikkei 225 and Asian markets: a strong PMI from China and India enhances expectations for regional demand and supports cyclically sensitive sectors.
• For raw materials and energy: improved PMI in Asia generally heightens expectations for energy imports, impacting oil prices and valuations of energy companies.
• For currencies: the combination of Australia's GDP and risk appetite in Asia influences the dynamics of "commodity" currencies and indirectly affects dollar/euro rates through flows into safe assets.

Europe: Service PMI, PPI, and Unemployment as a Test of Cycle Resilience

The European bloc revolves around three questions: how stable is the services sector, is there cost pressure at the producer level, and how is the labour market evolving? Service PMI for Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK sets a baseline tone for European indices, including the Euro Stoxx 50. The Eurozone's PPI helps gauge the "pass-through" of price pressures to the next stage — consumer inflation, which is crucial for interest rate expectations and bond yields. Unemployment is key to consumer demand and the resilience of corporate revenues in retail, transport, and banking.

For investors, it is practical to maintain focus on the relationship: PMI → growth expectations → corporate revenue forecasts → multiples. If PMI signals a slowdown, the market often re-evaluates cyclical sectors and intensifies demand for "quality" and defensive industries.

USA: ADP, PMI, and ISM Services — the Main Source of Intraday Volatility

American statistics on 4 March present a set of indicators often utilised by the market as a "rehearsal" before the official labour market report and as a benchmark for expectations surrounding Fed policy. ADP reflects hiring trends in the private sector and can abruptly influence UST yields and the dollar. Following that, S&P Global PMI and particularly ISM Services PMI provide a qualitative picture of demand in the services sector, which is dominant in the US economy and shapes the baseline dynamics of service inflation.

How to Interpret ISM Services PMI

• New Orders — a signal for future revenues of service and logistics companies.
• Prices (Prices Paid) — an indicator of inflationary pressure, critical for interest rate expectations.
• Employment — confirmation/negation of the ADP narrative and market labour expectations.

In the evening, the Fed's Beige Book may amplify or temper market reactions: if regional reviews indicate cooling demand and a normalisation of price pressures, this typically supports risk appetite; if the focus shifts to persistent inflation and a labour shortage — the likelihood of a firmer rhetoric and pressure on growth stocks increases.

Oil and Commodities: EIA Stock Report as a Driver for Energy and Inflation Expectations

Weekly EIA oil stocks (18:30 MSK) traditionally represent a high-volatility event for Brent and WTI, and through them, for energy companies and inflation expectations. For markets, not only the direction of crude oil stocks is important, but also the details:

• Gasoline and distillate stocks — an indirect indicator of demand and seasonal fuel consumption.
• Refinery Utilisation — a marker of processing margins and petroleum products supply.
• Exports/Imports — a factor in short-term balance, influencing spreads and futures curve dynamics.

For CIS investors, the transmission process matters: oil → currency revenue of exporters → expectations for the rouble → assessments of Russian assets and the MOEX index. Even with neutral stock data, volatility in energy sector stocks may occur if the market revisits demand expectations against the backdrop of PMI in Asia and the USA.

Russia: Services PMI and CPI as Landmarks for the Rouble, OFZ, and MOEX

Data on Services PMI (09:00 MSK) and particularly CPI (19:00 MSK) form the basis for monetary policy expectations. For the Russian market, this impacts three key channels:

1. The Rouble Exchange Rate — through expectations for real rates and capital flows.
2. Yields on OFZs — through re-evaluation of the key rate trajectory and inflation risks.
3. Stocks (MOEX) — through discounting future cash flows and sector rotation (banks/retail/exporters).

If CPI exceeds expectations, the market generally prices in a longer period of high rates, which supports yields and may pressure rate-sensitive sectors. Softer inflation, on the other hand, enhances the chance of renewed interest in "long" assets and dividend stories.

Corporate Reports: USA (Key Companies of the Day)

Mid-week offers a wealth of corporate reports, capable of influencing sectoral dynamics within the S&P 500 and risk appetite in the technology segment. Investors should evaluate not only profit and revenue but also guidance, margins, and management commentary on demand.

After Market Close in the USA (AMC)

• Broadcom — a technological benchmark for AI infrastructure and networking solutions; the market will scrutinise order dynamics and revenue forecasts.
• Okta — an indicator of corporate IT budgets and demand for cyber and identity solutions; focusing on customer retention and subscription growth rates.
• Veeva Systems — a "litmus test" for vertical SaaS in pharma and biotech; growth rates and revenue quality are crucial.

During the Day/Before Market Open (Focus on Consumer Demand)

• Abercrombie & Fitch — a marker of consumer demand and promotional pressures in the apparel segment.
• Bath & Body Works — an indicator of consumer spending and margin dynamics in retail.
• Brown-Forman — reflects consumption trends within brand categories and price elasticity of demand.

Corporate Reports: Europe, Middle East, and Other Markets

In Europe, the reporting on 4 March concentrates on major names sensitive to the consumer cycle and industrial conditions, which are important for the Euro Stoxx 50 and related indices.

• Bayer — evaluation of pharma/agriculture sectors, debt load, and margin prospects.
• adidas — a signal for the global consumer, sales dynamics by region, and the impact of exchange rates on profits.
• Dassault Aviation — an indicator of investment demand and order book in aviation.
• ACWA Power — focus on capital-intensive energy projects and implementation rates (important for assessing global infrastructure trends).

In Asian markets (including Nikkei 225), the day is greatly influenced by the macro background of PMI and currency dynamics; the earnings season continues, but key narratives are often "pulled" by US statistics and fluctuations in raw materials. For the Russian market, the focus on 4 March tilts towards the macro (PMI and CPI), while corporate publications from major issuers are more targeted and require monitoring of the disclosure flow.

What to Watch for Investors on Wednesday, 4 March 2026

1. Global Synchronisation of PMI: compare China/India/Europe — this is a quick indicator of whether global demand is strengthening or the economy is entering a cooling phase.
2. The USA as the "Centre of Gravity" for the Day: reactions to ADP and ISM Services can swiftly alter expectations regarding the Fed, yields, and the dollar — hence influencing valuations of growth stocks and commodity assets.
3. Oil and the EIA Report: sharp movements may occur in the energy sector; consider the influence on inflation expectations and currencies of commodity-exporting countries.
4. Russia: CPI and Rates: inflation sets the tone for the rouble, OFZs, and MOEX; assess portfolio sensitivity to rates and strengthening/weakening of the currency.
5. Corporate Reports: Broadcom and European "heavyweights" could shift sectoral demand structures; the key lies in management forecasts and margin quality, not just quarterly results.

The summation for investors on 4 March 2026 is that it will serve as a test of global cycle resilience through PMI, a test of Fed expectations through employment and ISM Services, and an "energy impulse" through EIA stocks. In such conditions, it is prudent to pre-define risk levels for the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX indices, as well as to maintain an action plan in case of sharp shifts in rates and volatility in commodities.