Global and Russian Energy Sector News for 19 October 2025: Sanction Pressure, Record Gas Reserves, Increased Investment in Renewables, and Stabilisation of the Russian Fuel Market.
Current events in the fuel and energy sector as of 19 October 2025 unfold against a backdrop of a tough geopolitical standoff and relative stability in commodity markets. The sanction confrontation between Russia and the West shows no signs of easing: this week, the UK expanded restrictions against major Russian oil and gas companies, while the US urged allies to completely abandon imports of Russian energy resources. An unexpected factor has emerged with India indicating its readiness to gradually reduce purchases of Russian oil under pressure from Western partners—this move could radically alter global oil flows. Meanwhile, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating a moderately calm dynamic: oil prices are holding near multi-month lows amid expectations of an oversupply by year-end, while the gas market is entering winter with record reserves, providing a comfortable backdrop for consumers (unless extreme cold conditions alter this balance). The global energy transition continues at an accelerated pace, with investments in renewable energy hitting new highs, although traditional resources (oil, gas, coal) still play a crucial role in global energy supply. In Russia, emergency measures to stabilise the domestic fuel market are yielding initial results: the gasoline shortage is gradually being eliminated, wholesale prices have retreated from peak values, although the situation in remote regions still requires attention. At the international forum "Russian Energy Week 2025", which concluded in Moscow on 17 October, key topics included ensuring the supply of energy resources to the domestic market and redirecting export flows in the context of sanctions. Below is a detailed overview of the main news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, renewable energy, and other raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Sanction Pressure, Threat of Losing the Indian Market, and Oversupply
Global oil prices remain low, hovering near recent lows. The Brent crude benchmark holds around $61–62 per barrel, with the US WTI within a range of $58–59, matching the lowest levels since early summer. Oil quotes are 8–10% below a month ago, reflecting expectations of excess supply by year-end. Following a minor rally in September, the market has transitioned back to a downward phase as traders anticipate that oil supply will exceed demand in the fourth quarter. At the same time, geopolitical tensions are influencing the situation, preventing prices from falling significantly below current levels. Multiple factors are at play:
- Gradual surplus and weak demand. The OPEC+ oil alliance continues its planned production increases in an effort to reclaim lost market shares. At the meeting on 5 October, participants confirmed a collective quota increase by about 130,000 barrels per day starting in November. Concurrently, major non-OPEC producers such as the US and Brazil have reached record oil production levels. However, global demand growth is noticeably slowing: according to an updated forecast by the International Energy Agency, oil consumption in 2025 is expected to increase by just ~0.7 million barrels per day (for comparison, in 2023 it was over +2 million). Economic slowdowns in Europe and China, along with the effects of high prices in recent years (which have encouraged energy conservation), limit demand. As a result, commercial oil inventories worldwide continue to rise, placing downward pressure on prices.
- Sanctions and geopolitical risks. Increasing sanction pressure creates additional uncertainty in the oil market. In mid-October, the UK imposed new sanctions against major Russian oil and gas companies (including Rosneft and Lukoil), tightening restrictions on the Russian sector. Washington also insists on stricter measures—potentially including a complete embargo on Russian oil from allies and halting circumvention schemes through a 'shadow fleet' of tankers. Military factors add tension, with ongoing drone attacks on oil infrastructure, including on Russian territory. This week, facilities in the Saratov region and Bashkortostan were damaged, forcing some oil refineries to halt operations. In response, Russian authorities announced the postponement of scheduled repairs at refineries to maintain maximum fuel production levels for domestic needs and export. Collectively, sanctions and conflicts increase volatility: any new tightening or force majeure could reduce market supply and trigger price spikes.
- India's Position and Redistribution of Flows. The largest buyer of Russian oil, India, has signalled a potential revision of its import strategy. According to Western sources, under pressure from partners, New Delhi has expressed its willingness to gradually reduce purchases of Russian barrels, which recently accounted for about a third of India’s oil imports. Officially, India states that its priority is to ensure affordable fuel for the country; however, the mere fact of discussing a withdrawal has alarmed the market. If in the coming months Indian companies do indeed begin to cut purchases from Russia, Moscow will have to find new buyers for significant volumes of oil or reduce production. On the one hand, losing the Indian market will intensify pressure on Russian exports and could hit Russian oil and gas revenues. On the other hand, the global market's move away from Russian raw materials would add flexibility: volumes from Russia could be replaced by suppliers from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, redistributing trade flows without an oil shortage. News of India's potential 'pivot' has temporarily supported oil quotes, as market participants believe that Russia will be forced to reduce exports, slightly reducing global supply. Consequently, about $60 per barrel for Brent is currently seen by analysts as a sort of price 'floor': the surplus supply prevents oil from rising in price, but sanction risks and potential market restructuring prevent prices from significantly falling below this level.
Thus, the oil market balances between fundamental pressures and political risks. The global surplus of oil keeps prices in a moderately low range; however, sanctions and potential changes in trade structure (e.g., India's withdrawal from Russian supplies) prevent quotes from collapsing. Companies and investors are acting cautiously, considering the possibility of new shocks—from further tightening of sanctions to escalations in conflicts. The baseline scenario for the coming months suggests the maintenance of relatively low prices in the presence of excess supply in the market.
Natural Gas: Full Storage, Low Prices, and Eastward Supply Redirection
The gas market is presenting a favourable situation for consumers, particularly in Europe. The European Union enters winter with record gas inventories: underground storage facilities (USFs) are filled on average to over 95%, significantly exceeding last year’s figures. Timely injections during summer and relatively mild autumn weather have allowed the necessary reserves to accumulate without panic buying. As a result, wholesale gas prices in the EU are being kept at relatively low levels: the key TTF index has stabilised around €30–35 per MWh—substantially lower than peak values seen in autumn 2022. The risk of a repeat of last year’s gas crisis has noticeably decreased, although the situation still hinges on winter weather conditions and uninterrupted LNG supply.
- Europe is ready for winter. High levels of USF reserves provide a solid buffer in case of cold weather. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the current volume of gas in European storages exceeds last year's level by 5–7%. Even with low temperatures, a significant portion of winter demand can be covered by accumulated resources, reducing the likelihood of fuel shortages. European industry and energy remain moderate in their consumption: the EU economy is growing slowly, and renewable electricity generation was high in autumn, allowing for a reduction in gas usage in generation.
- Increase in LNG imports. Europe continues to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. Weakened LNG demand in Asia has freed up additional volumes for European buyers. Suppliers from the USA, Qatar, and other countries have maximally utilised their gas delivery capacities to the EU. High LNG imports compensate for nearly the complete halt of pipeline supplies from Russia, as well as cover the decrease in production and scheduled repairs at North Sea fields. Diversification of supply sources keeps the market balanced and tempers sharp price fluctuations.
- Eastward export redirection. After losing the European market, Russia is increasing gas supplies to the east. Volumes transported via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China reached record levels in 2025, nearing the pipeline's projected capacity (around 22 billion cubic metres per year). Concurrently, Moscow is advancing plans to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline through Mongolia, which is expected to be launched by the end of the decade, partly replacing lost export volumes to Europe. Furthermore, Russian LNG supplies are increasing: the commissioning of new liquefaction lines in Yamal and Sakhalin provides additional fuel batches for the global market. These batches are primarily directed towards Asia—China, India, Bangladesh, and other countries willing to purchase gas at attractive prices. Nevertheless, the total gas export from Russia remains below pre-sanction levels, as the priority for Moscow currently is to ensure domestic supply and meet obligations to its nearest CIS allies.
As a result, the global gas sector is entering winter in a relatively balanced state. Europe has an unprecedented 'safety cushion' of gas, greatly reducing the chances of price shocks—although they cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in the case of extreme cold weather or disruptions in LNG supplies. Simultaneously, global gas trading routes have undergone significant changes: the EU has almost entirely severed ties with Russian gas, while Russia has redirected its efforts toward Asian markets. Investors are closely monitoring developments—from the pace of new LNG project launches worldwide to negotiations on expanding gas export infrastructure. For now, the combination of moderate demand and high reserves is benefiting importers, keeping natural gas prices at comfortable levels.
Electric Power: Record Consumption and Grid Modernisation
The global electricity sector is experiencing unprecedented demand growth, presenting new challenges for infrastructure. In 2025, global electricity consumption is confidently approaching historical highs. Economic growth, digitisation, and widespread adoption of electric transport are driving increases in electricity consumption in all regions. It is estimated that global power generation will exceed 30,000 TWh for the first time in a year. Major economies are expected to contribute significantly to this record: the USA is projected to generate around 4.1 trillion kWh (a new national record), while China will exceed 8.5 trillion kWh. Rapid growth in energy consumption is also evident in many developing countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, driven by industrialisation and population growth. Such rapid demand growth necessitates proactive investment in the energy sector to prevent capacity shortages and disruptions. Key development directions in the electricity sector include:
- Massive grid upgrades. Increased load demands require the modernisation and expansion of electricity networks. In many countries, programmes have been launched to strengthen and develop energy grids, as well as build new generating capacities. Energy companies in the USA are investing billions in updating distribution networks—responding to load increases from data centres and electric vehicle charging stations. Similar projects for the enhancement and digitisation of electricity grids are being implemented in the European Union, China, India, and other regions. At the same time, the global significance of smart grids and energy storage systems is increasing. Large battery farms and pumped storage stations help to smooth load peaks and integrate growing irregular generation from renewables. Without infrastructure upgrades, energy systems will struggle to reliably meet the record demand of the coming decades.
- Reliability assurance and investment. Overall, the electricity sector demonstrates resilience, meeting economic needs even at record consumption levels. However, continuous capital investment in networks, generation, and innovations is necessary to maintain the reliability of power supply. Many governments view the electricity sector as a strategic industry and, despite budget constraints, are increasing funding for the sector. The stability of energy supply affects the functioning of all other segments of the economy, prompting governments to seek to prevent interruptions. Investments in the construction of modern power stations (including nuclear plants and flexible gas units as reserves) and the implementation of advanced network management technologies are ongoing. The strategic focus is on enhancing efficiency and reducing excess losses, enabling the handling of rising demand without compromising energy quality.
Thus, the electricity sector is entering a new era of heightened loads. Ensuring the uninterrupted operation of energy systems in the face of explosive demand growth will only be achievable through the proactive development of infrastructure. Continued investment in power networks, generating capacity, and energy storage systems will be key to ensuring that the energy system meets future challenges and supports economic growth without interruptions.
Renewable Energy: Investment Boom, Government Support, and New Challenges
The renewable energy (RE) sector continues its rapid expansion in 2025, reinforcing the long-term trend towards a 'green' transition in energy. In the first three quarters of 2025, global investments in solar and wind energy reached record levels—estimates indicate that investment volumes exceed last year's levels by more than 10%. These funds are directed toward the accelerated construction of new solar parks and wind farms, as well as the development of supporting infrastructures: energy storage systems, smart networking platforms, hydrogen energy technologies, etc. The rapid commissioning of new capacities increases the generation of clean electricity without a rise in CO2 emissions. In many countries, renewable energy is setting new records; however, this explosive growth is accompanied by several challenges. The main trends and challenges in the renewable energy sector are as follows:
- Generation records and RE share. Renewable sources are occupying an increasingly significant place in the global energy balance. Preliminary data for 2025 indicate that around 30% of all electricity produced worldwide will derive from solar, wind, hydro, and other renewable installations. In the European Union, the share of clean energy has surpassed 45% due to active climate policies and the phase-out of coal generation. China is approaching the 30% mark for RE production, despite the enormous scale of its energy system and ongoing construction of modern coal-fired power plants. For the first time in history, the total volume of electricity produced from solar and wind worldwide has exceeded that generated from coal—a significant symbolic milestone for the sector. These achievements confirm that 'green' energy has become an integral part of global energy supply.
- Government support and incentives. Governments of leading economies are enhancing support for renewable energy, seeing it as a driver for sustainable growth. In Europe, more ambitious climate goals have been introduced, requiring accelerated commissioning of low-carbon capacities and a reform of the emissions market. In the USA, large-scale subsidy and tax incentive programmes for renewable projects and related sectors continue to be implemented (under the Inflation Reduction Act). Countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America are also increasing investments: for example, Gulf states are introducing large solar and wind facilities, while auctions for new RE projects involving state participation are taking place in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. This policy aims to reduce industry costs and attract private capital, accelerating the transition to clean energy.
- Growth challenges. The rapid expansion of RE is accompanied by certain difficulties. Increased demand for equipment and raw materials is driving up component prices: during 2024–2025, high prices were recorded for polysilicon (a key material for solar panels) and rare earth elements for wind turbines. Energy systems face the challenge of integrating variable generation—significant energy storage capacity and reserve manoeuvring power plants are required to balance the grid. Furthermore, the sector is experiencing a shortage of qualified personnel and limited transmission capacity in certain regions, which can delay the commissioning of new facilities. Regulators and companies will need to address these issues to maintain high rates of the 'green' transition without compromising the reliability of energy supply.
Overall, renewable energy has already become one of the most dynamic segments of the fuel and energy sector, attracting record investment volumes. It is expected that as the cost of technologies continues to decrease, the share of clean energy in the balance will steadily grow. New technological breakthroughs—such as advancements in battery storage or developments in hydrogen energy—have the potential to unlock further opportunities for the sector. Investors view RE as a promising direction; however, successful project implementation must consider market risks related to material prices, regulatory changes, and infrastructure constraints.
Coal Market: High Demand in Asia and Long-term Phase-out of Coal
The global coal market in 2025 is demonstrating contradictory trends. On the one hand, high demand for coal persists in the Asian region; on the other hand, many countries are systematically working towards reducing its use for environmental goals. In Asian countries, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, coal continues to play a crucial role in their energy balance and industry. The summer months brought a surge in the import of thermal coal in East Asia—for instance, in August, the combined coal purchases by China, Japan, and South Korea increased by nearly 20% compared to July. The reasons include rising electricity demand during peak seasons and temporary production cuts at some deposits (strict safety and environmental checks in China limited the operations of several mines, necessitating an increase in fuel imports to meet the needs of power plants).
- Asian demand supports the market. Despite diversification efforts, many developing economies in Asia are still not ready to abandon coal, given its availability and importance for energy systems. Coal-fired power plants provide coverage for peak loads and network stability during periods when renewable generation is insufficient. High demand for coal in China and India keeps prices at an acceptable level for producers. The coal sectors in these countries are increasing investments to improve efficiency and environmental friendliness (for example, by constructing new thermal power plants with cleaner combustion technologies), although parallelly, the groundwork for transitioning to cleaner energy sources is being laid for the future.
- Global coal phase-out in the long term. At the same time, developed economies and international organisations are committed to a long-term phase-out of coal. In the countries of the European Union and North America, the systematic closure of coal-fired power plants is ongoing: targets are set to completely phase out coal from the energy sector by 2030–2040. Financing for new coal projects is becoming increasingly difficult, as major banks and investors distance themselves from coal assets due to climate risks. As a result, the share of coal in global energy consumption is gradually decreasing (although it remains significant—accounting for about a quarter of global electricity generation). The phased policy to phase out coal aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage cleaner energy sources.
- Industry adaptation and social aspects. Coal companies find themselves in a difficult situation: while high short-term demand (primarily in Asia) ensures profitability, the long-term market outlook deteriorates. Planning new mines and mining infrastructure is fraught with risks, as traditional markets for sale may not exist in 10-15 years. Major industry players are attempting to adapt by diversifying their businesses, investing in related areas (such as coal chemistry or carbon capture projects), and tightening cost controls. Governments, for their part, are focusing on mitigating the socio-economic consequences of the energy transition: programmes for retraining workers in the coal industry, supporting mining regions, and stimulating alternative sectors of the economy are being implemented. The goal is to ensure that the gradual phase-out of coal proceeds as smoothly as possible for individuals employed in the industry and regional economies.
Overall, the coal market is currently sustained by Asian consumers, but the strategic vector is shifting towards reducing coal's role. In the next few years, demand for coal in Asia may remain high, providing relative stability to global coal trade. However, as the global climate agenda strengthens and new renewable generation capacities become available, the role of coal generation will steadily decline. Companies and governments face the challenge of balancing short-term energy needs with long-term sustainability goals.
Russian Fuel Market: Stabilisation, Extension of Export Restrictions, and Price Controls
In autumn 2025, the situation in Russia's domestic oil products market is gradually stabilising after a sharp crisis that erupted in late summer. In September, many regions faced gasoline and diesel shortages due to a combination of seasonal demand increases (harvest campaign, active vehicle season) and reduced supply from refineries. This was caused by both planned maintenance at several plants and unscheduled stoppages due to accidents and increased drone attacks on oil infrastructure. By mid-October, thanks to emergency measures taken, the motor fuel deficit had been substantially reduced. Wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from record peaks, and independent filling stations have been able to resume unrestricted fuel sales in most regions of the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, authorities continue to maintain strict controls over the situation—particularly in remote regions (the Far East, certain areas of Siberia), where logistics are challenging and normalisation of supply is not yet completely resolved. To prevent a new wave of fuel crisis, the government has extended and expanded several key measures:
- Export Restrictions on Oil Products. The full ban on the export of automotive gasoline imposed in late September has been extended until 31 December 2025. Similarly, restrictions on diesel fuel exports remain in place until the end of the year: independent traders are prohibited from exporting diesel, while oil companies with their own refineries are only permitted to do so in limited volumes under government control. The extension of export restrictions aims to maximally saturate the domestic fuel market and reduce price speculation within the country.
- Support for Refineries and a Dampening Mechanism. As of 1 October, the authorities suspended the previously planned nullification of the dampening subsidy, maintaining payments to oil refineries for supplies to the domestic market. In simpler terms, the state will continue to compensate refineries for the difference between export and domestic fuel prices if the latter is below a threshold level. This dampening mechanism preserves the financial incentive to direct gasoline and diesel to domestic filling stations even when export prices are more favourable. Additionally, the government has requested oil companies to postpone non-critical repairs and increase the utilisation of refining capacities in the coming months to ramp up fuel production ahead of the winter season.
- Fuel Imports and Price Monitoring. To eliminate local deficits, a temporary easing of fuel imports is being considered. The government has decided to nullify import duties on motor gasoline and diesel fuel until mid-2026, allowing for the potential engagement of fuel supplies from abroad (primarily from allied countries, such as Belarus) without incurring additional costs. Concurrently, price monitoring on the domestic market has been intensified: the Federal Antimonopoly Service has warned several large filling station networks against unjustified price increases. The cabinet of ministers is currently avoiding a direct administrative freeze on retail prices, opting instead for market mechanisms—higher dampening payments, subsidies for transporting fuel to hard-to-reach regions, and targeted suppression of speculative practices.
Initial results of the measures taken are already being felt. By mid-October, daily production of gasoline and diesel in Russia had recovered from the decline of late summer—this was facilitated by the completion of emergency repairs at select refineries and the redirection of export volumes to the domestic market. In central and southern regions, wholesale bases and filling stations have accumulated sufficient fuel stocks once again. Authorities are optimistic about getting through the upcoming winter without serious supply interruptions, although localized issues may persist in remote locations. The government underscores that ensuring the domestic market is an unconditional priority: export restrictions will only be relaxed after the country is sustainably supplied with fuel and reserves are formed. For oil companies, the extension of restrictions means a temporary reduction in export revenues; however, the state partially compensates for losses through dampening and subsidies. In the long term, officials acknowledge the need for modernising the fuel sector: developing storage and transportation infrastructure, implementing digital platforms for transparent resource allocation, and enhancing oil refining depth within the country. These issues were discussed at REW-2025 and have become an important signal for the market. Thus, the Russian fuel and energy sector enters the winter period under enhanced government oversight and support. This instills confidence that even amidst external pressure and price volatility, internal stability in the supply of oil and oil products will be maintained, and the fuel crisis of 2025 will not be repeated. Market participants are now focused on the implementation of the government's next steps and the effectiveness of the measures taken, which will determine investors' and consumers' confidence in the stability of the Russian fuel and energy complex.
