Global Energy Sector News as of 20 October 2025: Sanctions Against Russia, Rerouting Oil and Gas Exports, Record Gas Reserves in Europe, Growth in Renewables Investment and Fuel Market Stabilisation in Russia.
By the end of October 2025, the global fuel and energy complex (TEC) finds itself in a situation of relative stability in raw materials markets amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. The sanctions pressure from the West on the Russian oil and gas sector continues to escalate: the UK has expanded sanctions against the largest Russian oil and gas companies, while Washington urges its allies to completely phase out imports of Russian energy. An unexpected factor has been India's position, which, under pressure from Western partners, has expressed a willingness to gradually reduce purchases of Russian oil — a move that could fundamentally reshape global supply flows. Nevertheless, global oil and gas markets are showing moderately stable dynamics: oil prices are hovering near multi-month lows due to anticipated oversupply, while the gas market is entering winter with record reserves, providing a comfortable backdrop for consumers (unless extreme cold brings unforeseen challenges).
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum — investments in renewable energy are reaching new heights, although traditional resources (oil, gas, coal) continue to play a key role in energy supply. In Russia, emergency measures to stabilise the domestic fuel market are yielding results: the gasoline shortage is gradually easing, wholesale prices have receded from peak levels, although the situation in remote regions still requires attention. During the recently concluded international forum "Russian Energy Week 2025" on 17 October in Moscow, key topics included ensuring the internal market with energy resources and rerouting export flows in the face of sanctions. Below is a detailed overview of the main news and trends across the oil, gas, electricity, coal, renewable, and other raw material sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Sanctions Pressure, Indian Factor and Oversupply
Global oil prices remain low, hovering near recent minimums. The North Sea Brent is trading at around $61 per barrel, and US WTI is near $58, approximately 8–10% lower than a month ago. A minor rally in prices in September was followed by a decline, as traders anticipate supply will exceed demand in the fourth quarter. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions persist, preventing prices from collapsing further. Multiple key factors are influencing the situation:
- Gradual Oversupply and Slowing Demand. The OPEC+ oil alliance has maintained a phased approach to increasing production, aiming to reclaim lost market shares. At the meeting held on 5 October, participants confirmed a collective quota increase starting in November of approximately +130,000 barrels per day. Concurrently, major non-OPEC producers, such as the US and Brazil, have ramped up their oil output to record levels. However, global demand growth is noticeably slowing: the International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for oil consumption growth in 2025 to around 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to over 2 million in 2023) due to slowdowns in European and Chinese economies and the lingering effect of high prices from previous years that have encouraged energy conservation. Consequently, commercial oil reserves worldwide are increasing, reinforcing downward pressure on prices.
- Sanctions and Conflict Risks. The intensification of the sanctions confrontation creates additional uncertainty in the oil market. In mid-October, the UK introduced new restrictions against Russian companies (including Rosneft and Lukoil), and the US insists on a full embargo from its allies and curtailing circumvention schemes. Military factors are also heightening tensions: drone attacks on oil infrastructure, including in Russian territories, persist. Recently, facilities in the Saratov region and Bashkortostan were damaged, causing some refineries to suspend operations. In response, Russian authorities announced the postponement of planned repairs at refineries to maintain maximum fuel production for domestic needs and exports. Collectively, sanctions and related conflict risks are increasing volatility: any new tightening or unforeseen circumstances could reduce supply in the market and trigger price spikes.
- India’s Position and Rerouting of Flows. The largest buyer of Russian oil — India — is signalling a potential revision of its import strategy. According to Western sources, New Delhi, under pressure from partners, has expressed a willingness to gradually move away from Russian barrels, which recently accounted for about a third of India’s oil imports. Officially, India states that its priority is to ensure the availability of cheap fuel; however, the mere discussion of a withdrawal has alarmed the market. Should Indian companies begin to cut purchases from Russia in the coming months, Moscow will need to seek new buyers for substantial volumes or curtail production. On one hand, losing the Indian market could increase pressure on Russian exports and impact oil and gas revenues. On the other hand, India moving away from Russian crude could add flexibility to the global market: the freed-up volumes could be replaced by suppliers from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, redirecting trade flows without causing oil shortages. News of a potential “pivot” by India temporarily supported prices, as market participants believe Russia will have to lower exports, suggesting a reduction in global supply. As a result, the level around $60 per barrel for Brent is currently seen as a sort of “floor” for prices: oversupply prevents oil from rising significantly, but sanctions risks coupled with potential market restructuring do not allow prices to remain below this mark for long.
Thus, the oil market is balancing between fundamental pressures and political risks. The global oil oversupply keeps prices in a moderately low range; however, sanctions and possible shifts in trade structures (such as India’s withdrawal from Russian supplies) prevent prices from plunging further. Companies and investors are acting cautiously, considering the risk of new shocks – from further tightening of sanctions to the escalation of conflicts. The baseline scenario for the coming months anticipates the continuation of relatively low prices if oversupply persists.
Natural Gas: Record Reserves, Low Prices and Eastern Export Vector
On the gas market at the end of October, a favourable situation is emerging for consumers, especially in Europe. The EU is entering winter with unprecedented gas reserves: underground storage facilities are over 95% full, significantly higher than last year’s level. Timely summer injections and mild autumn weather have allowed for the accumulation of necessary reserves without emergency purchases. As a consequence, wholesale gas prices in the EU remain at a relatively low level: the indicative TTF index has stabilised around €30–35 per MWh, several times lower than the peaks of autumn 2022. The risk of a repeat of last year's gas crisis has markedly decreased, although the ongoing situation's development depends on weather conditions during winter and uninterrupted LNG supplies. Several trends are emerging in the global gas market:
- Europe is Ready for Winter. High storage levels provide a solid buffer for any potential cold snaps. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the amount of gas in EU storage facilities exceeds last year’s figure by 5–7%. Even in low temperatures, significant portions of winter demand can be covered through accumulated resources, which reduces the likelihood of fuel shortages. The European industry and energy sector are also maintaining moderate demand: the region's economy is growing slowly, with renewable electricity generation being high in autumn, thereby reducing gas consumption at power plants.
- Increase in LNG Imports. Europe continues to ramp up its purchases of liquefied natural gas on the global market. The easing demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for European buyers. Suppliers from the US, Qatar, and other countries have engaged maximum capacities to deliver gas to the EU. High LNG imports nearly compensate for the complete cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia and cover declines in output from North Sea fields. The diversification of sources supports market balance and curtails sharp price spikes.
- Rerouting Russian Exports. After losing the European market, Russia is redirecting gas flows to the East. Through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China, gas delivery in 2025 reached record values, approaching project capacity (~22 billion cubic meters per year). Concurrently, Moscow is advancing plans to build the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline through Mongolia, with completion by the end of the decade expected to partially replace the lost export volumes to Europe. Additionally, Russian LNG supplies are increasing: the launch of new liquefaction lines in Yamal and Sakhalin has provided additional volumes of fuel, mostly directed towards Asian countries (China, India, Bangladesh, etc.), willing to purchase gas at attractive prices. Nevertheless, the total gas export from Russia is still below pre-sanction levels – Moscow’s priority remains the domestic market and obligations to close allies in the CIS.
As a result, the global gas sector enters winter in a relatively balanced state. Europe has an unprecedented buffer of gas, significantly reducing the risks of price shocks – though such shocks cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in the case of anomalously cold weather or disruptions in LNG supplies. Concurrently, global trade routes for gas have radically reshaped: the EU has virtually abandoned Russian gas supplies, whereas Russia has redirected exports to Asian markets. Investors are closely monitoring developments — from the commissioning of new LNG capacities around the world to discussions on expanding export infrastructure. For now, the combination of moderate demand and high reserves is benefiting importers, keeping gas prices at a comfortable level.
Electric Power: Record Demand and Network Modernisation
The global electricity sector is experiencing unprecedented demand growth, posing new challenges for infrastructure. In 2025, global electricity consumption is confidently moving towards a historical peak: total generation is set to exceed 30,000 TWh for the first time. Economic growth, digitalisation, and widespread adoption of electric transport are leading to increased electricity demand across all regions. Major economies are making significant contributions: the US is projected to generate around 4.1 trillion kWh (a new national record), while China is expected to exceed 8.5 trillion kWh per year. Rapid growth in energy consumption is also evident in countries across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East amidst industrialisation and population growth. To prevent capacity shortages and power interruptions, proactive investments in energy are required. Key focus areas for electricity development include the following:
- Updating and Expanding Networks. Growing loads require modernisation of the electricity grid and construction of new lines. Many countries have programmes aimed at strengthening and digitising power grids, as well as introducing additional generation capacities. For example, energy companies in the US are investing billions of dollars to upgrade distribution networks to handle the loads from data centres and electric vehicle charging stations. Similar network infrastructure development projects are also being implemented in the EU, China, India, and other regions. In parallel, intelligent "smart" networks and energy storage systems are increasingly being adopted. Large battery farms and pumped storage plants help to smooth load peaks and improve integration of growing renewable energy volumes. Without infrastructure modernisation, energy systems will struggle to reliably meet record demand in the coming decades.
- Reliability and Investments. Despite record loads, the electricity sector demonstrates overall resilience, meeting the economy's needs. However, maintaining reliable electricity supply necessitates constant capital investment in networks, generation, and innovations. Governments of many countries view energy as a strategic sector and are increasing funding despite budget constraints. The stable operation of energy systems is critical for all industries, leading authorities to strive to prevent outages. Investments in modern power plants (including nuclear and flexible gas units for backup) and the introduction of advanced network management technologies continue. A strategic priority is enhancing energy efficiency and reducing losses, which will enable the release of additional capacities.
Thus, the electricity sector is entering a new era of increased loads. Ensuring uninterrupted operation of energy systems amidst explosive demand growth will only be achieved through proactive infrastructure development. Continuing the investment focus on networks, generating capacities, and innovations remains critical to meet demand and avoid outages in the future.
Renewable Energy: Investment Boom and New Challenges
The renewable energy sector (RES) in 2025 continues its rapid growth on the wave of the energy transition. Governments worldwide are increasing support for green energy, viewing it as a driver for sustainable development. Investment volumes are breaking records, and the capacity of newly introduced solar and wind power plants is growing year on year. Consequently, the share of clean energy in the overall energy balance is steadily increasing, although the rapid expansion of renewables is fraught with challenges. Key trends in the sector include:
- Record Generation and Share of RES. Renewable sources are occupying an increasingly important position in global generation. Preliminary estimates suggest that in 2025, around 30% of the world's electricity will be produced by solar, wind, hydro, and other RES installations — compared to approximately 25% five years ago. In the EU, the acceleration of the "green" agenda has raised the share of renewable energy to new heights, gradually pushing coal and gas out of the energy balance. Many developing countries are also investing more actively in solar and wind farms, aiming to reduce fuel import dependency.
- Government Support and Incentives. To achieve climate goals, leading economies are expanding support measures for the green sector. In Europe, stricter emissions reduction targets have been adopted, necessitating accelerated deployment of carbon-free capacities and reforms of the quota market. In the US, programmes for subsidies and tax incentives for RES and electric transport continue (following the adoption of the IRA), stimulating the inflow of investments. China, India, and other major countries are also increasing funding for RES projects while protecting energy systems from outages through the development of storage and backup capacities.
- Challenges of Growth. The rapid rise of RES is accompanied by a number of challenges. The increasing demand for equipment and materials is driving up component prices: in 2024–2025, high prices for polysilicon (a key material for solar panels) and rare earth elements for wind turbines and batteries were recorded. Infrastructure in many places is lagging behind the introduction of new capacities — bottlenecks in electricity grids are delaying the integration of RES in certain regions. Additionally, the development of renewable energy requires addressing the balancing challenge: ensuring stability in power supply amidst the variable nature of generation calls for effective storage systems and flexible backup sources.
Thus, there is an investment boom in the renewable sector, accompanied by structural changes in the energy landscape. Provided continued government support and the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks, green energy will continue to gain momentum. The sector is addressing the dual goals of increasing resilience and reducing technology costs, so that in the future, renewable sources are firmly established as a fundamental element of the global energy system.
Coal Market: Asian Demand vs. Global Coal Phase-Out
The global coal market in 2025 is demonstrating contrasting trends. High demand for coal for electricity generation and industry persists in Asia, supporting current consumption levels and prices. At the same time, developed economies are rapidly phasing out coal generation as part of climate agendas, negatively impacting the sector's long-term outlook. The situation in the coal market is characterised by the following points:
- Asian Demand Supports the Market. While developing economies are not yet ready to fully abandon coal due to its affordability and significance for energy systems, coal-fired power plants continue to help cover peak loads and maintain grid stability when RES generates less energy. In 2025, the trend of increasing imports of thermal coal in East Asia continued: in August, China, Japan, and South Korea collectively increased purchases by approximately 20% compared to the previous month. In China, temporary safety regulations in the mining sector have curtailed domestic production, which was compensated for by increased imports — pushing regional prices up (Australian Newcastle coal prices rose above $110 per tonne, a five-month high). Similarly, India and several other countries have increased coal usage to meet energy demand despite declared transitions to clean energy.
- Long-Term Coal Phase-Out. Simultaneously, many countries are committed to a phased exit from coal-fired energy to reduce emissions. In the EU, the share of coal generation has already fallen below 10% (compared to around 15% a few years earlier), and 11 EU countries are planning to completely close coal power plants by 2030. Cheap natural gas and the rapid growth of RES continue to displace coal even in traditional markets. Countries historically dependent on coal are also reducing its usage: for instance, Germany, after a temporary increase in coal generation, is returning to plans for rapid closure of coal power plants. Global financial institutions are scaling back financing for coal projects, redirecting loans towards low-carbon initiatives.
- Industry Adaptation. Coal companies find themselves caught between short-term profits and long-term risks. Strong demand in Asia ensures profitability today, but in 10–15 years, traditional markets will shrink due to decarbonisation. In this context, leading coal exporters (including Russia) must adapt: seeking new buyers in developing countries by offering price discounts and resolving logistical issues or focusing on domestic needs. A promising direction is "clean coal" — deep processing technologies and emission capture that will allow for coal use with lesser environmental impact. The social question is also acute — ensuring employment and retraining for workers in coal-producing regions as production is phased out.
Thus, the coal industry is balancing current demand against the inevitable decline of coal's role in the future. In the short term, the market is supported by Asian fuel needs, but global decarbonisation trends are unequivocally leading to a gradual phase-out of coal from energy sectors. The fate of leading coal mining companies will depend on their ability to pivot — diversifying their businesses and mitigating the social consequences of the energy transition.
Russian Fuel Market: Stabilisation, Support for Refineries and Price Control
In autumn 2025, the situation in Russia's internal petroleum products market is gradually normalising after a severe fuel shortage in late summer. Emergency government measures — from limiting exports of petroleum products to financial incentives — have allowed supplies to normalise at filling stations. The gasoline shortage has significantly decreased, and wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have receded from peak levels, although supply remains unstable in some remote regions. To ensure market stability, authorities have extended and supplemented a package of stabilisation measures:
- Export Limitation. The temporary ban on exporting automotive gasoline introduced at the end of September has been extended until 31 December 2025. Similarly, restrictions on diesel fuel exports remain in place until year-end: independent traders are prohibited from selling diesel abroad, while oil companies can only export if domestic needs are fully met. These steps aim to saturate the domestic market with petroleum products and curb prices.
- Support for Refineries and Dampers. As of 1 October, the government has halted the previously planned zeroing of the damping mechanism. Thus, until further notice, compensation payments to oil refineries for supplying fuel to the domestic market continue. This "damper" covers the difference between the higher export value and domestic prices, encouraging oil companies to direct their products to filling stations rather than abroad.
- Fuel Imports and Price Control. To eliminate localized shortages, the facilitation of gasoline and diesel fuel imports from friendly countries is being considered to quickly replenish resource shortages in specific regions. At the same time, monitoring of prices at filling stations is intensifying: federal and regional authorities are demanding that oil traders exclude unjustified price increases. The government has already allocated additional funds to several regions (particularly border ones) to support uninterrupted fuel supply ahead of winter.
Thus, the Russian TEC is entering the winter period under heightened state control and support. This gives grounds to hope that even under external pressure and price volatility, internal stability in supplying the country with oil and petroleum products will be maintained. Market participants are optimistic that the measures taken will prevent a repeat of the fuel crisis and allow for a smooth winter season without supply disruptions.
