Current News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Market as of November 24, 2025: Global Events, Analysis, Refining, Gas, Power Generation and Oil Products.
As the new week begins, global oil and gas markets are reacting to key geopolitical signals and industry events. Amidst attempts at diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, oil prices have dropped to a monthly low, while notable shifts are taking place in the energy sector - from increased LNG exports to Europe to record profits in refining and the compromise outcomes of the COP30 climate summit. Below is an overview of the main news and trends in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of November 24, 2025.
Global Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and New Sanctions
Oil prices decline. Global oil prices ended last week at their lowest level in a month. Brent dropped to approximately $62.5 per barrel, while WTI fell to $58.1, down 3% from levels the previous week. The decline in prices is attributed to the United States' initiative to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: investors are factoring in the possibility of ending the prolonged conflict and lifting some sanctions, which could return additional volumes of Russian oil to the market. Concurrently, risk sentiment is weakened by high interest rates in the US and a strengthening dollar, making commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Sanctions and prospects for their lifting. On Friday, November 21, new US sanctions against major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect. These restrictions aim to further reduce Russia's oil export revenues. However, the US-approved peace plan for Ukraine implies that if agreements are implemented, these sanctions could be lifted. The market is already pricing in such a possibility: the risk of disruptions to Russian supplies has decreased somewhat, although experts warn that a real peace deal is far from guaranteed. Moscow and Kyiv are currently sceptical about the terms of the plan, and analysts note that a final agreement may take considerable time.
Supply and demand balance. Fundamental factors in the oil market are shifting towards a potential oversupply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its forecast in its latest report: it expects that by 2026, the global oil market will tip into a slight surplus. OPEC+ plans to maintain a cautious policy - the cartel previously signalled a pause in increasing production in Q1 2026 to avoid an excess of oil amid rising deliveries from non-OPEC countries. Banking analysts, including Goldman Sachs, also predict a moderate decline in oil prices over the next year or two due to exceeding growth in supply. A further indicator of excessive supply is the record amount of oil stored on tankers at sea: market estimates suggest that a significant portion of Russian crude is accumulating in floating storage due to sanctions, awaiting buyers. All these factors combined are keeping oil prices under pressure.
US Shale Production: Testing $60 Prices
Low oil prices are beginning to take a toll on the US shale sector. In the largest American oil basin, the Permian (Texas and New Mexico), there has been a reduction in drilling activity. Companies are laying up drilling rigs, and a wave of layoffs has swept through the industry: the cost of shale oil for a number of independent producers is approaching current market prices of around $60 per barrel, calling into question the profitability of new wells. Reports from the region indicate that in recent weeks, dozens of drilling rigs have been halted, and some oil service companies are optimising their workforce.
However, experts note that the US shale industry has gone through similar downturn cycles before and has shown resilience. Large players with solid financing are seizing the moment to acquire assets: mergers and acquisitions have ramped up amid declining production. The industry was recently stirred by news of a major deal by ExxonMobil to acquire a shale producer, strengthening the major's position in the Permian basin. Consolidation is expected to continue, as smaller producers prefer to sell or merge rather than withstand pricing pressure. If prices remain relatively low, a slowdown in US production may balance the market and lead to renewed tightening in supply in the second half of 2026, which, in turn, would support prices.
Oil Products and Refining: Surge in Margins and Infrastructure Issues
Record profits for refiners. In contrast to crude oil, oil products markets show increased tension. In November, refining margins in many key markets reached multiyear highs. Industry analysts report that European refineries are making around $30-34 per barrel of oil in net fuel sales profit - a level not seen since 2023. A similar situation is observed in the US (the 3-2-1 crack index approaches record levels) and in Asia. Several factors have worked in refiners' favour:
- Capacity reductions: A series of planned and unplanned refinery shutdowns around the world have led to reduced gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel supply. In the US and Europe, several plants have closed in recent years, while in Nigeria and the Middle East, major new refineries (e.g., Dangote, Al-Zour) have temporarily reduced output due to repairs and commissioning.
- Drone attacks and sanctions: Drone strikes on oil refining plants and pipelines in Russia during the conflict have reduced oil product exports from the country. Simultaneously, embargoes and tariffs on Russian oil products (imposed by Western countries) have limited the availability of diesel fuel in the global market, particularly in Europe.
- High demand for diesel: Europe is experiencing a structural diesel shortage - economic growth and the cold season are supporting demand, while domestic refining does not fully cover it. Imports from Asia, the Middle East, and the US are not always quick enough to bridge the gap, pushing diesel prices upward.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that due to this margin rally, oil companies are revising their forecasts: despite gloomy expectations at the beginning of the year, Q3 2025 turned out to be extremely successful for the downstream segment. For instance, French TotalEnergies reported a 76% year-on-year increase in profits from its refining business, thanks to the favourable market conditions. Experts believe that high margins will persist, at least until the end of the year, incentivising refineries to increase capacity utilisation after the completion of autumn repairs.
Pipelines accident in the US. Infrastructure issues are also impacting the oil products market. In November, a leak occurred in one of the largest product pipelines in the US - the Olympic Pipeline system, which delivers gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Washington state to neighbouring Oregon. The leak was detected on November 11 near Everett, Washington, prompting the operator (BP) to halt pumping. The state authorities declared a state of emergency, as the shutdown of the pipeline disrupted the supply of aviation kerosene to Seattle International Airport. By the end of the week, emergency crews had excavated over 30 metres of the pipe in search of the damage, but the source of the leak was not immediately identifiable. One of the two pipeline lines has been partially restarted, but overall the system is not yet operating at full capacity. The incident underscores the vulnerability of fuel infrastructure: regional fuel reserves had to be supplemented through road transport and backup supplies, temporarily driving up local prices for jet fuel and gasoline. The pipeline is expected to be fully operational only following repairs and inspection.
Gas Market and Energy Security in Europe
The European gas market enters the winter season relatively stable, but energy security concerns remain paramount. Thanks to active purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and consumption savings over the past months, underground gas storage in EU countries are full close to record levels as winter begins. This mitigates the risk of a sharp price spike in the event of colder weather. Meanwhile, European governments continue to diversify gas sources, reducing reliance on supplies from Russia:
- New LNG terminals in Germany: The largest economy in the EU is enhancing its LNG reception capabilities. A fifth floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) is set to launch in 2026 at the mouth of the Elbe River (Stade port). Currently, LNG accounts for approximately 11% of Germany's total gas imports for the three quarters of 2025. The construction of permanent terminals is progressing rapidly - Berlin aims to completely replace the pipeline gas lost from Russia in 2022-2023.
- Balkan gas pipeline supported by the US: In Southeast Europe, the long-discussed alternative gas pipeline project is getting underway. Bosnia and Herzegovina, with US assistance, has revived plans to construct a connecting pipe to Croatia - the so-called "Southern Interconnector". Gas will flow from the Croatian LNG terminal on the island of Krk, allowing Bosnia to reduce its dependency on Russian gas currently flowing through the "Turkish Stream". American partners have expressed readiness to be the lead investors in the project. Earlier, internal political disagreements in BiH had hindered implementation, but now the project has gained new support and momentum.
- Ukraine increases imports: Amidst escalating conflict with Russia, Ukraine is facing serious challenges in the gas domain. Due to infrastructure bombardments in recent months, the country has lost up to half of its domestic gas production. To get through the winter, Kyiv has sharply increased fuel purchases from neighbouring countries. In November, the Trans-Balkan supply route was once again activated - around 2.3 million cubic metres of gas per day began to be imported from Greece (which has an LNG terminal) via Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine is steadily receiving gas from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. These measures are helping to compensate for the shortfall caused by the attacks and support energy supply for Ukrainian consumers during the winter period.
Energy security and policy. In several European countries, there is heightened attention to controlling critical energy infrastructure. For instance, the Italian government has expressed concerns about the participation of Chinese investors in the capital of companies owning national electricity grids and pipelines. Officials state that strategic networks should remain under reliable domestic control - measures are under discussion to limit the share of foreign shareholders in such assets. This step aligns with the broader EU trend towards enhancing energy independence and protecting infrastructure from geopolitical risks.
Price situation. Thanks to high inventories and source diversification, spot gas prices in Europe remain relatively modest for this season. Regulators in some countries continue to protect consumers: in the UK, the price cap for households will be slightly raised in December - by just 0.2% - reflecting the stability of wholesale prices. Nonetheless, electricity and heating bills remain above pre-crisis levels, and governments are having to balance between market prices and support measures for households.
Electricity and Coal: Contradictory Trends
In global electricity generation, two opposing trends are evident: the growth of "green" energy sources and the simultaneous increase in coal use to meet demand. This is particularly evident in China and several developing Asian countries:
Record electricity production in China. In the People's Republic of China, electricity demand is growing rapidly - October 2025 marked a historic peak in generation for that month (over 800 billion kWh, +7.9% year-on-year). Meanwhile, output from thermal power plants (primarily coal-fired) has increased by more than 7%, compensating for seasonal declines in generation from wind and solar plants. Despite efforts to develop renewable energy sources (RES), around 70% of electricity in China is still produced from coal, hence the increase in consumption inevitably leads to higher coal combustion.
Coal shortage and price rise. Paradoxically, while coal use in China hits record levels, coal production itself has seen a slight decline. This is due to restrictions imposed by Beijing on mine operations (safety measures and efforts to combat excess capacity). Consequently, official data indicate that coal output in October was 2.3% lower than the previous year. The reduction in domestic market supply has resulted in rising prices: the benchmark price for thermal coal at China’s largest port, Qinhuangdao, has surged to 835 yuan per tonne (approximately $117), which is 37% higher than the summer's minimum. The deficit is also being made up through imports - China is increasing coal purchases from Indonesia and Australia, sustaining high demand in the global market.
Global record in coal. According to the IEA, global coal production in 2025 is set to rise to a new record of around 9.2 billion tonnes. The main contribution to the increase comes from China and India, where economic growth still heavily relies on coal-based energy. International experts express concern: persistently high coal combustion levels complicate the achievement of climate goals. Nevertheless, in the short term, many countries are forced to balance between environmental commitments and the need for reliable energy supply.
Energy system under the strain of war. Meanwhile, Europe continues to grapple with targeted strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. According to the operator "Ukrenergo", as of the morning of November 23, over 400,000 consumers were without electricity, particularly in the eastern regions subjected to nighttime bombardments. Repair crews are working around the clock, connecting backup schemes and restoring power lines; however, each new damage complicates the passage of the autumn-winter peak load. Ukraine's electricity system is integrated with the European ENTSO-E, enabling emergency electricity imports in times of shortage, but the situation remains extremely tense. International partners are providing equipment and financial assistance to support Ukraine's power grid.
Renewable Energy: Projects and Achievements
The renewable energy sector continues to develop steadily around the world, demonstrating new records and initiatives:
- Pakistan shifts to solar energy. The country is preparing for a significant milestone: according to government statements, by 2026, electricity generation from rooftop solar panels will exceed daily consumption in several major industrial zones. This will be the first such instance in Pakistan's history. The active development of solar generation is part of a strategy to reduce dependence on expensive imported fuels. Installation of solar modules on factory rooftops is being subsidised by the government and attracting foreign investors. It is anticipated that the excess daytime generation will be used to charge energy storage systems and fed back into the grid, improving electricity supply during peak evening loads.
- New offshore wind energy project in Europe. The consortium Ocean Winds (a joint venture of Portugal's EDP and France's Engie) has won rights to build a large floating wind farm in the Celtic Sea (off the southwest coast of the UK). The planned capacity is several hundred MW, which will supply green electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. This project underscores the growing interest in floating turbines that can be installed at great depths, exploring new marine areas. The UK and EU countries are actively conducting auctions for offshore wind farms, striving to meet targets for increasing the share of RES in the energy mix.
- Investments in grid infrastructure. German conglomerate Siemens Energy has announced plans to invest €2.1 billion (approximately $2.3 billion) in building facilities to produce electrical grid equipment by 2028. Projects will span several countries and are aimed at alleviating "bottlenecks" in the power grid, which needs modernisation to integrate renewable sources. Amid the ongoing crisis in its wind energy division, Siemens Energy is focusing on its more reliable business - electricity transmission and distribution. The expansion of transformer production capabilities, switchgear, and power electronics is supported by EU governments, as improving power grids is considered critical for the success of the Energy Transition.
- Corporations procure green energy. The trend of entering into direct contracts for renewable energy supply between energy companies and large businesses continues. For example, French TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Google to supply energy from new solar and wind projects to Google’s data centres in Ohio (USA). The deal is set for the long term and aims to bring the IT giant closer to its goal of using 100% renewable energy, while allowing the energy company to ensure the sale of power from its RES projects. Such corporate PPAs (power purchase agreements) are becoming a significant component of the market, encouraging the construction of new renewable energy facilities worldwide.
Corporate News and Investments in the FEC
Several significant events have occurred in the corporate segment of the fuel and energy complex, reflecting the industry's restructuring under new realities:
- ExxonMobil pauses hydrogen project. American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has taken a break in executing one of its most ambitious projects for producing "blue" hydrogen. The planned large hydrogen plant (presumably in Texas) has been postponed due to insufficient demand from potential customers. According to Exxon CEO Darren Woods, clients are not ready to buy large volumes of hydrogen at economically justified prices. This situation reflects a broader trend: the transition of traditional oil and gas companies to low-carbon technologies is progressing slower than expected since many such projects are still not yielding quick profits. Analysts note that ExxonMobil and other majors are reassessing their timelines for achieving emissions reduction targets, focusing more on profitable areas - oil and gas production - amid current pricing conditions.
- Mining giant aims for copper. In the realm of raw material megadeals, a new potential merger process is emerging. Australian company BHP Group has made a renewed offer to acquire British Anglo American. Anglo has recently agreed to merge with Canadian Teck Resources to focus on copper mining - a metal that is in high demand in the era of energy transition (for electric vehicles, cables, and renewable energy). Now BHP, already a leader in copper, aims to create an unprecedentedly large copper mining company capable of dominating the market. Anglo American's management has so far refrained from commenting, and details of discussions are not disclosed. If the deal proceeds, it will shift the balance of power in the mining sector and give BHP control over strategic copper reserves in South Africa, South America, and other regions.
- US invests $100 billion in critical resources. The US Export-Import Bank (US EXIM) has announced an unprecedented financing programme aimed at securing sustainable supplies of critically important raw materials for the US and its allies. This involves allocating up to $100 billion in investments for projects related to the extraction and processing of rare earth metals, lithium, nickel, uranium, as well as the development of facilities for LNG production and components for nuclear energy. The first package of deals has already been formed: this includes an insurance of $4 billion for the export of US LNG to Egypt and a loan of $1.25 billion for the development of a major copper-gold deposit Reko Diq in Pakistan. The EXIM initiative aligns with US administration policy to strengthen "energy dominance" and reduce dependence on China for supplies of raw materials for high-tech and energy sectors. Given Congress's approval of bank funding, active US involvement in raw material projects worldwide can be expected in the coming years.
- Nuclear project in Hungary receives exemption. In the context of sanctions policy, noteworthy news from Europe has emerged: the US Department of the Treasury has issued a special licence allowing certain companies to conduct payments concerning the construction of the new nuclear power plant "Paks-2" in Hungary. This project is being implemented with the participation of the Russian state corporation "Rosatom", and prior sanctions restrictions caused uncertainty in its financing. Now, an exemption has been made, likely at Budapest's request and to support the energy security of a NATO ally. The licence pertains to transactions related to non-nuclear aspects of construction and reflects a pragmatic approach - the sanctions regime remains tough, but targeted relaxations are possible if they meet the interests of energy stability for European partners.
COP30 Climate Summit: Compromise without Abandoning Oil and Gas
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) wrapped up in Belem, Brazil, with final agreements reflecting the complexity of international negotiations in the energy sector. The summit’s final document was adopted with great difficulty and represented a compromise between a group of developed countries advocating for more decisive measures and a bloc of fuel-exporting states and developing economies:
Financial support for vulnerable countries. One of COP30's main achievements was the promise to triple climate financing for developing countries by 2035. Wealthy nations are willing to increase assistance for climate adaptation projects - building protective infrastructure, transitioning to renewable energy sources, and combating desertification and flooding. This was a principal demand from Global South nations, which pointed out their disproportionate vulnerability to climate risks. The European Union, although it criticized the initial draft of the agreement as "insufficiently ambitious", ultimately did not obstruct its adoption in order to initiate the mechanism for supporting the poorest countries. According to one EU negotiator, the agreement is "not perfect, but it will direct much-needed funding to the most vulnerable."
Disagreement on fossil fuels. The most contentious issue in negotiations was the fate of oil, gas, and coal. Plans to include a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels in the preliminary draft were met with resistance; in the final text, such wording is absent. Countries in the so-called "Arab Group", along with other oil and gas producers, categorically opposed any mention of direct reductions in fossil fuel use. They argued that it is far more important for them to discuss carbon capture technologies and "clean" use of oil and gas rather than curtailing production. As a result, the compromise language on energy transition remains vague, without quantitative commitments to reduce the share of oil and coal. This concession disappointed several Latin American countries (Colombia, Uruguay, Panama openly demanded stricter wording) and environmental organisations; however, it was necessary for consensus.
Reactions and prospects. The compromise COP30 agreement received mixed evaluations. On one hand, it has preserved the multilateral climate process and ensured the inflow of funds for adaptation and "green" technologies. On the other, the lack of specifics regarding the phase-out of hydrocarbons was described by experts as a missed opportunity to accelerate the fulfilment of the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who previously called for a "roadmap" for gradually phasing out coal, oil, and gas, expressed cautious optimism, noting that dialogue continues and key decisions remain ahead. Meanwhile, the location for the next conference has been decided: COP31 will be hosted by Turkey in 2026. Ankara has reached an agreement with Australia to co-host the summit on Turkish territory. The world will be watching closely to see if the next meeting can take bolder steps towards decarbonising the global economy.
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