Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 25 November 2025: Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, Energy Policy, Sanctions, Fuel and Energy Complex, Global Commodity Markets, Analysis, and Key Events of the Day.
Global Oil Market
After a sell-off in recent days, oil prices have stabilised at minimal levels. Brent is trading around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is around $58. This situation has been driven by a combination of factors: a rise in oil inventories in the US, moderate demand forecasts from the IEA and EIA, as well as geopolitical news. Increased negotiations regarding the cessation of the conflict in Ukraine have alleviated some concerns regarding supply disruptions and put downward pressure on prices.
- Stocks and Demand: American oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels over the week (up to early November) — this is significantly higher than the forecast. According to IEA estimates, by 2026, global oil supply may exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day, creating a risk of a substantial surplus in the market.
- OPEC+ Decision: In early November, OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by only 137,000 barrels per day in December and to suspend further increases for the first quarter of 2026 (due to concerns about oversupply). Meanwhile, new Western sanctions complicate the expansion of Russian output: restrictions from the US and the UK have particularly impacted 'Rosneft' and 'Lukoil'.
Sanctions and Russian Oil Exports
As of 21 November, US sanctions against 'Rosneft' and 'Lukoil' have come into effect. These measures could remove up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil from the global market. Russian export flows are facing logistical difficulties: some tankers carrying Urals, ESPO, and other grades have been redirected to different destinations or delayed on their way. Indian refineries are already reserving vessels for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf in place of Russian oil.
- Price Impact: In the short term, Russian oil is being sold at significant discounts, which has stimulated Asian demand for Urals. However, from 16 January, the EU will completely ban the import of fuel from Russian oil (the ICE exchange will cease to accept 'Russian' diesel and gasoline). This will create a shortage in the oil product market and support high margins for sellers of alternative supplies.
Diesel Market and Oil Products
In contrast to crude oil, diesel fuel prices remain high: although they have decreased slightly over the past week, they are still 8% higher than at the end of October. This is due to a shortage of diesel in the global market. Russia, the second-largest exporter of diesel, has reduced supplies to record low levels due to attacks on refineries and sanctions: in October, exports totalled only 669,000 barrels per day (the lowest since 2020). 'Rosneft' and 'Lukoil' previously provided about 270,000 barrels of diesel per day (37% of Russian exports and 9% of global) — these volumes are now lost.
European and Asian refineries, which previously sourced cheap Russian oil, are already restructuring their logistics and reducing purchases from Russia. As a result, margins on diesel production have increased: American refineries have ramped up diesel exports to Europe, boosting their profit per barrel by approximately 12%. Even with the possibility of peace in Ukraine, the lifting of European restrictions is unlikely, thus diesel prices will remain elevated.
European Gas Market
Gas prices in Europe have plummeted: on 24 November, TTF gas prices for December deliveries fell below €30 per MWh (≈$355 per 1000 m³), the lowest since May 2024. This decline is linked to optimism surrounding negotiations over Ukraine. Market participants believe that successful peace initiatives could lead the EU to reconsider its strict plans to phase out Russian LNG, which removes some of the premium for supply reliability. It is worth recalling that in the pre-war years, Russia accounted for up to 45% of EU gas imports; today, this share is approximately 10%. At the same time, the EU has adopted a plan to completely cease imports from Russia by the end of 2027, which is contested by Hungary and Slovakia.
- Gazprom Warns: 'Gazprom' has pointed to record rates of gas withdrawals from European underground storage facilities. According to the Gas Infrastructure Europe association, from 19 to 21 November, European countries withdrew unprecedented volumes of gas daily. By 21 November, gas storage in the EU had fallen below 80% — one of the lowest figures in the last decade. In the event of prolonged cold weather, existing stocks may not be sufficient for stable supply to households and industrial consumers.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Import from the US: By the end of 2025, the European Union has set a record for imports of American energy resources — approximately $200 billion (including LNG, nuclear fuel, and oil). The share of American LNG in total gas imports to the EU has risen to 60%. The EU is actively entering into long-term contracts for LNG supplies from the US, further reducing dependence on alternative sources.
- Projects and Risks: New challenges are emerging in the global LNG market. In Australia, unions have applied for a strike at the under-construction Pluto expansion facility (Woodside Energy) due to significant pay disparities with a similar Wheatstone project. If the strike occurs, the start of additional LNG supplies from this project may be delayed until the end of 2026. Such disruptions increase tension in the global gas market: similar events in 2023 led to rising gas prices due to a reallocation of supplies.
Energy Policy and Renewable Sources
- COP30 (UN): At the climate summit in Brazil, calls for a phased-out reliance on oil, gas, and coal were excluded from the final declaration. This means that the official document no longer contains appeals to abandon fossil fuels. This wording reflects a compromise between countries advocating for a gradual transition to clean energy and major oil and gas exporters demanding the consideration of their interests.
- G20 Declaration: Leaders of the G20 at the summit in Johannesburg emphasised the need for stable fossil fuel supplies, noting that sanction risks must be taken into account. The joint statement highlights the importance of reliable energy supply chains and equitable distribution of benefits from resource development. Meanwhile, G20 countries reaffirmed ambitious climate goals: to triple renewable energy generation capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.
- Renewable Projects: Despite political discussions, 'green' projects are progressing. Statkraft has launched Germany’s largest hybrid power plant: 46.4 MW of solar panels with a 57 MWh battery (supplying around 14,000 homes and saving 32,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually). In India, ReNew Power has secured $331 million from the ADB for the construction of a 2.8 GW hybrid site (solar + wind installations with storage), capable of delivering 300 MW of 'green' energy around the clock. These projects enhance energy system security and support the energy transition.
Major Deals and Investments
- Saudi Aramco: The state oil company of Saudi Arabia is preparing one of the largest deals in history: the sale of stakes in its export terminals and storage facilities. The deal is expected to yield over $10 billion, which will be directed towards enhancing production, including the Jafura gas project. Despite this, Aramco continues to invest actively in expanding oil and gas production.
Overall, as of 25 November 2025, global energy resource markets stand at the crossroads of significant changes. On one hand, hopes for a peaceful resolution of the crisis reduce some geopolitical risks and exert downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, sanctions and operational challenges sustain scarcity in certain segments (particularly diesel and gas) and lead to high volatility. Market players should closely monitor the progress of negotiations, regulatory decisions, and global energy strategies: these will determine the future dynamics of demand, exports, and prices in the fuel and energy complex.
