Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of February 1, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Refineries. Key Events in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of February 1, 2026, are capturing the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and mixed signals. Geopolitical tensions are escalating once more: the United States is intensifying sanctions pressure in the energy sector, while conflict risks in the Middle East are rising, creating uncertainty and driving up oil prices to multi-month highs. Simultaneously, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, which suffered a significant decline in 2025, have partially recovered but remain at moderate levels by historical standards—an oversupply persists amid subdued demand, and the OPEC+ alliance is keeping output under control. The European gas market is confidently navigating the winter season: record gas reserves in storage and mild weather in January are keeping prices low, providing comfort to consumers.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues to gain momentum: renewable energy sources are reaching new generation records, although countries still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for energy system reliability. In Russia, following an autumn surge in fuel prices, authorities are maintaining strict measures to stabilise the domestic petroleum market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risks Prompt Price Surge
Global oil prices rose significantly last week, reaching their highest levels in the past six months. However, overall oil prices remain relatively restrained due to fundamental market factors. The North Sea Brent blend is stabilising around $70–72 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $64–66. Current levels are still 10–15% lower than a year ago and fall short of the peak values witnessed during the energy crisis of 2022-2023.
- OPEC+ Supply: Major oil exporters are maintaining discipline in their supplies. In 2025, OPEC+ incrementally increased production by nearly 3 million barrels per day (from April to December) as the previous restrictions were eased, resulting in a surplus. However, at the beginning of 2026, considering the seasonally low winter demand, OPEC+ countries paused further increases. At the January meeting, members unanimously decided to maintain current production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026 to prevent renewed market oversaturation. Should the need arise, the alliance has indicated its readiness to cut production again. This preventative approach is keeping oil within a narrow price corridor and reducing volatility.
- Demand Slowdown: The global growth in oil consumption has significantly weakened. According to updated estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for oil rose by only ~0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to +2.5 million b/d in 2023). OPEC estimates the demand growth in 2025 at around +1.2 million b/d. Reasons include the slowdown in the global economy and the previous high-price environment that encouraged energy conservation. Additionally, China contributed to the demand slowdown: during the second half of 2025, growth in industrial production and fuel consumption in the PRC was below expectations (industrial production growth fell to the lowest pace in 15 months).
- Geopolitical Factors: The oil market is simultaneously influenced by opposing political forces. On one hand, the escalation of sanction confrontations has intensified restrictions on the trade of energy resources. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the United States implemented the toughest sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector in years (including a ban on transactions with several major companies), forcing some Asian buyers to reduce their imports of Russian oil. Moreover, Washington effectively announced the possibility of imposing high tariffs (up to 500%) on imports to the US from countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas—this initiative aims to deprive Moscow of export revenues financing the conflict in Ukraine. Concurrently, the risk of disruptions in the Middle East has increased: in January, reports emerged that the US was considering a military strike against Iran due to Tehran's nuclear programme. Amidst this tension, investors are pricing in a heightened risk premium on oil. On the other hand, periodic signals of a potential ceasefire in Eastern Europe (albeit with no tangible results) are creating expectations that, sooner or later, sanctions against Russian exports may be eased, and the full volume of Russian oil may return to the market—this factor is weighing on "bearish" sentiment. For now, the cumulative impact of all factors maintains a moderate supply-demand imbalance, keeping the oil market slightly in surplus.
As a result, oil prices remain within a relatively narrow range, lacking sustainable momentum for either further growth or sharp declines. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming events—from OPEC+ decisions (the next ministerial meeting is scheduled for February 1, where an extension of the current production policy is anticipated) to geopolitical developments—that may alter the risk balance for oil prices.
Gas Market: Europe Navigates Winter Safely, Prices Stay Low
Attention in the gas market is focused on the successful navigation of winter by European countries. Thus far, the season is favouring Europe: January has been relatively mild, so gas withdrawals from storage are proceeding at moderate rates. By the beginning of February, underground gas storage facilities (UGSF) in the EU are approximately 60% full, significantly higher than the average level for this time of year, ensuring a high comfort level in the supply system.
Thanks to this, as well as stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from alternative sources, prices in the European market remain low. The benchmark TTF index is fluctuating in the range of approximately €25–30 per MWh—significantly lower than the peak values seen during the energy crisis two years ago. For industry and consumers, such price levels have provided tangible relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have notably decreased compared to last winter.
The market is prepared for potential weather surprises: short-term cold spells may temporarily increase demand and prices, but at present, there do not appear to be systemic risks of fuel shortages. Moreover, Europe's strategy for diversifying gas sources and energy-saving measures has proven effective, allowing for a flexible response to challenges. Globally, according to IEA forecasts, world natural gas consumption in 2026 may reach a new record—primarily due to growing demand in Asia. However, at the moment, the supply of LNG and pipeline gas is sufficient to meet demand, with the European market entering the final phase of winter without disruptions.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure, Middle Eastern Tension, and Changes in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the United States intensified efforts to limit Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump is promoting legislation through Congress that proposes imposing extremely high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports to the US from countries that "knowingly trade" with Russia for oil and gas. The goal of the US is to reduce Moscow's revenues from energy exports, which it believes are financing the military conflict in Ukraine. These measures are causing tension in external trade: China is sharply protesting against external pressure on its energy policy, asserting that its trade with Russia is legitimate and should not be politicised. India, for its part, is trying to manoeuvre—Delhi has indeed reduced its share of Russian oil in imports over the past year while simultaneously negotiating with Washington to soften American tariffs on Indian goods.
Another significant event at the beginning of the year is the unexpected changes in Venezuela, which could impact the balance of power in the oil market. In early January, the United States conducted a military operation resulting in the ousting and detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. President Trump announced Washington's readiness to support a transitional government until a new government is formed. This unprecedented move has resonated on the international stage: several countries (including China) have condemned the violation of Venezuela's sovereignty and principles of international law. However, for the oil and gas industry, the primary question remains whether regime change will lead to the return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but due to sanctions and economic crisis, its production has plummeted in recent decades. Experts note that even in the event of political changes, an instant increase in exports is unlikely: the country's oil infrastructure requires significant investment and modernisation. Nevertheless, the anticipated gradual lifting of sanctions could increase the availability of heavy Venezuelan oil on the global market in the long term, which could become a new factor in the balance of power within OPEC+.
The situation in the Middle East has also worsened. In January, the US introduced new sanctions against Iran, accusing Tehran of advancing its missile-nuclear programme and destabilising the region. Reports emerged indicating that Washington is considering a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if diplomatic pressure does not yield results. Iran has categorically rejected demands to curb its defensive capabilities, asserting that it will not tolerate external interference. The escalation of rhetoric between the US and Iran has heightened anxiety in the oil market: traders fear disruptions in supplies from the Persian Gulf in the event of military conflict. Although a direct confrontation has been avoided thus far, the very threat of destabilisation in this key oil-producing region contributes to rising prices and remains one of the primary sources of uncertainty for FEC market participants.
Asia: Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
Asian countries—key drivers of demand growth for energy resources—are taking proactive steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the rapidly growing needs of their economies. The policies and energy strategy choices of major Asian consumers—China and India—are having particular influence on the global market:
- India: New Delhi aims to reduce dependency on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressures. Following the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India significantly increased purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western sanctions, it slightly reduced the share of Russia in its oil imports. Simultaneously, the country is focusing on developing internal resources: a large-scale programme for the exploration of deep-water oil and gas fields has been launched to boost domestic production to meet soaring internal demand. Furthermore, India is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity (solar and wind power plants) and infrastructure for LNG imports, aiming to diversify its energy mix. However, oil and gas remain the backbone of its energy supply necessary for industry and transportation; thus, Indian leadership must balance the benefits of importing cheap fuel against the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world’s second-largest economy continues its course towards strengthening energy self-sufficiency, combining maximum increases in traditional resource extraction with record investments in clean energy. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, China achieved historic highs in domestic oil and coal production to reduce import dependency. Concurrently, the share of coal in China's electricity production has fallen to a multi-year low (~55%) as the country commissioned record volumes of new solar, wind, and hydropower capacities. Analysts estimate that in 2025, China added more solar and wind power plants than the rest of the world combined, helping to curb the growth of fossil fuel consumption. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, China's appetite for energy resources remains enormous: oil imports (including from Russia) continue to play a significant role in meeting demand, especially in transportation and petrochemicals. Beijing is also actively concluding long-term contracts for LNG supplies and increasing nuclear power generation. It is expected that in the new 15th five-year plan (2026-2030), China will set even more ambitious goals for the development of non-carbon energy while ensuring sufficient reserve capacity from traditional sources—authorities aim to avoid energy deficits, learning from the experience of power outages in the previous decade.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming the irreversibility of this trend. Many countries have recorded historical levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. According to estimates from international analytical centres, the total generation from wind and solar energy globally in 2025 for the first time surpassed electricity production at all coal-fired power plants. This historic milestone was made possible due to a sharp increase in new capacity: global electricity generation from solar power plants rose by approximately 30% compared to the previous year, while wind power increased by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the primary growth in global electricity demand and allowed a reduction in fossil fuel usage in several regions.
However, the rapid growth of green energy is accompanied by reliability issues in electricity supply. When demand growth exceeds the introduction of renewable capacity or when weather conditions are unfavourable (calms, droughts, extreme cold), energy systems are forced to compensate for shortages through traditional generation. Thus, in 2025, amid economic recovery, electricity generation at coal-fired power plants increased in the US, as available renewable energy was insufficient to meet additional demand. In Europe, due to weak winds and low water levels in hydropower resources during the summer and autumn, there was a partial increase in the burning of natural gas and coal to meet energy needs.
These examples demonstrate that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants still play an important role as a backup network, compensating for the variability of solar and wind generation. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other advanced technologies to smooth production fluctuations. However, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: the rapid growth of renewables will parallel the retention of a significant share of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which provide stability to energy systems and cover base loads.
Coal: High Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The global coal market demonstrates just how inertial global energy consumption can be. Despite efforts to decarbonise, coal use on the planet remains at historically high levels. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025 global coal demand rose by approximately 0.5%, reaching around 8.85 billion tonnes—a historical peak. The primary growth occurred in Asian economies. In China, which consumes more than half of all coal produced globally, the relative role of coal in electricity generation, although diminished to its lowest level in decades, remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, fearing energy shortages, Beijing approved the construction of new coal-fired power stations in 2025, aiming to prevent disruptions in energy supply. India and Southeast Asian countries also continue to actively burn coal to meet the growing demand for electricity, as alternative sources are not developing at the same pace.
Coal prices stabilised in 2025 after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (e.g., Australian Newcastle coal), prices remained significantly below the peak of 2022, although still above pre-crisis levels. This encourages mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of this decade before gradually declining as climate policies strengthen and numerous new renewable capacities are introduced. However, in the short term, coal remains a critical part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base generation and heat for industry; thus, until effective substitutes emerge, demand for coal will remain robust. Thus, the tension between environmental goals and economic realities continues to define the fate of the coal industry: the downward trend is evident, but the "swan song" of coal has clearly not yet arrived.
The Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilisation through State Intervention
In the domestic fuel market in Russia, relative stabilisation has been observed by the beginning of 2026, achieved through unprecedented government intervention. In August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel surged to record levels, prompting the government to intervene swiftly. Strict temporary restrictions on fuel exports were implemented, control over domestic fuel distribution was tightened, and financial support measures for refineries were expanded. These steps yielded tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale prices fell from their peaks, while retail prices at gas stations increased only moderately—around 5-6% for all of 2025, which is comparable to inflation. A physical shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel was averted: gas stations across the country, including remote regions, have been supplied with fuel even during seasonal peaks in demand.
Russian authorities state their intention to keep the situation under control. Export restrictions on fuel remain in place as of early 2026 (for gasoline, they have been extended at least until the end of February), and at the first signs of a new imbalance, they may be tightened again. The government is also prepared to resort to commodity interventions from state fuel reserves if necessary to smooth out price fluctuations. For FEC market participants, this policy means predictability of domestic prices for petroleum products, despite external shocks—sanctions and volatility in global prices. Oil companies have had to come to terms with partial export limitations, but overall stabilisation of the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that the interests of consumers and the economy will be reliably protected from price shocks.
