Key News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, 9 February 2026. Global Oil and Gas Market, OPEC+ Decisions, Energy, Renewable Energy, Electricity, Coal, Oil Products and Refining.
At the beginning of February 2026, global oil prices remain relatively stable, hovering in the high $60 range per barrel. The benchmark Brent is trading around $68–70, while the US WTI is in the vicinity of $64–66. Following a downturn in the second half of 2025, prices have partially rebounded due to coordinated actions by OPEC+ and various geopolitical factors. However, overall market pressure persists due to oversupply and uncertainty in the global economy. Western nations continue to intensify sanctions: since February, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to approximately $45 per barrel, and the European Union announced its 20th package of sanctions against Russia this week, which includes a complete ban on servicing maritime transportation of Russian oil and the inclusion of dozens of vessels from the "shadow fleet" on the sanctions list. These measures complicate Russia's export deliveries and increase the risk of logistical disruptions. Concurrently, India has witnessed a sharp decrease in Russian oil purchases—January data shows imports fell to more than one-third of last year's levels, signalling a possible reorientation of trade flows.
In the internal market of Russia, the government continues to closely monitor fuel prices. The Federal Antimonopoly Service is conducting unscheduled inspections of oil companies in response to inflation risks in this sector. The winter cold has led to new records in energy consumption: peak loads have been recorded in several regions, with historical maximums in gas demand. Nevertheless, the energy system is managing the increased load by utilizing reserves, and significant disruptions have been avoided. Simultaneously, the global energy transition remains on pace—investments in renewable energy are hitting record highs, and by the end of 2025, the share of "green" generation in the European Union exceeded fossil fuel electricity generation for the first time. In this overview, we examine current trends in the global oil and gas markets, analyse the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, and highlight key events in the segments of coal, electricity, and renewable energy sources.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Sanction Pressures
In early February, oil prices stabilised at moderate levels after a moderate rise. The North Sea Brent is holding steady at around $68–70 per barrel, while US WTI is in the range of $64–66, having bounced back from lows ($60) at the end of 2025. The market receives support from signals of OPEC+'s willingness to limit supply amid fragile demand. Major oil exporters suspended planned production increases towards the end of last year and confirmed the extension of existing production restrictions until at least the end of Q1 2026, aiming to prevent overproduction during a seasonally weak winter demand period. Key factors and risks in the oil market include:
- OPEC+ Policy and Demand. Alliance members continue to adhere to significant voluntary production cuts (approximately 3.7 million barrels per day), having abandoned previously planned increases. OPEC predicts that global oil demand will rise in 2026 by around +1.2 million bbl/day (to ~105 million bbl/day), but notes that a slowdown in China's economy and high interest rates in the US and Europe may adjust these expectations. The oil alliance is closely monitoring the market and is prepared to respond swiftly to prevent imbalances; short-term geopolitical incidents (for example, the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East) have already demonstrated OPEC+'s readiness to intervene when necessary to stabilise prices.
- Sanctions and Reallocation of Flows. The sanctions confrontation surrounding Russian oil is intensifying and continues to influence the global market. The new 20th EU sanctions package tightens restrictions: European companies are banned from insuring and financing tankers transporting oil from Russia, and the "blacklist" of violating vessels has been expanded. Additionally, since February, Western countries have lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $45, further increasing pressure on Russia's export revenues. Despite this, Russian hydrocarbons continue to find buyers in Asia, but competition for these markets is growing. In January, India—the largest importer of Russian oil in 2025—cut purchases to about one-third of last year's levels, partially reorienting towards other sources. This highlights the flexibility of Asian consumers and compels Russian exporters to actively redirect supplies to China, Turkey, Southeast Asia, and other alternative destinations.
Thus, the combination of factors is preventing oil prices from collapsing but also limits their rise. The market accounts for both the risks of economic slowdown (which dampen demand) and the possibility of a deficit forming in the second half of the year, should sanctions significantly cut supply. For now, prices remain relatively stable, with low volatility compared to recent years.
Natural Gas Market: Declining Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February 2026, the European gas market remains relatively calm despite increased winter consumption. Underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in the EU are rapidly depleting as the heating season progresses, but relatively mild weather in late January and record LNG deliveries are helping to avoid shortages and price shocks. Futures at the TTF hub are holding steady at around $10–12 per million BTUs, significantly lower than peaks seen in 2022 and reflecting market confidence in resource availability this winter. In Russia, early February saw historic maximums in daily gas consumption—abnormal cold spells recorded consecutive days of record withdrawals from the gas transport system.
Several key trends are shaping the gas market:
- Depleting Stocks and New Injection Season. Winter withdrawals are quickly reducing gas stocks in European storage facilities. By the end of January, UGS levels in the EU fell to ~45% of total capacity—the lowest level for this time of year since 2022, and significantly below the long-term averages (~58%). If current trends persist, stocks could decline to ~30% by the end of March. To raise levels again to a comfortable 80–90% before next winter, European importers will need to inject around 60 billion cubic metres of gas during the interseason. Accomplishing this will require maximising purchases during warmer months, especially since a significant portion of current imports is being consumed immediately.
- Record LNG Deliveries. The decline in pipeline supplies is being compensated by unprecedented imports of liquefied natural gas. In 2025, European countries purchased around 175 billion m3 of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion. This increase in purchases is supported by the expansion of global supply: new LNG plants coming online in the US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries are expected to contribute to a global LNG production rise of approximately 7% this year (the highest rate since 2019). The European market is counting on high LNG purchases to get through the heating season, particularly since the EU has decided to completely stop importing Russian gas by 2027, which will require replacing approximately 33 billion m3 annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Turn to the East. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies to the East. The volumes flowing through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China have reached record levels (approaching the design capacity of ~22 billion m3 per year), while Moscow is expediting negotiations for the construction of a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also ramping up LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and the Arctic. However, even with this eastern direction, total gas exports from Russia have significantly decreased compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term reconfiguration of gas flows continues, establishing a new global gas supply map.
Overall, the gas market enters the second half of winter without the past turbulence: prices remain moderate, and volatility has decreased to a minimum compared to recent years.
Oil Products and Refineries Market: Stabilisation of Supply and Regulatory Measures
The global oil products market (petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, etc.) is relatively stable at the beginning of 2026 after a period of price upheavals in recent years. The demand for fuel remains high thanks to the recovery of transport activities and industrial growth; however, increasing global refining capacity helps to meet this demand. Following shortages and price peaks in 2022–2023, the situation for petrol and diesel supply is gradually normalising, although some regions still experience disruptions. Among the key trends in the fuel market are:
- Increase in Refining Capacities. New oil refineries are being launched in Asia and the Middle East, increasing global fuel output. For example, the modernisation of the Bapco refinery in Bahrain has expanded its capacity from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day, with new facilities coming online in China and India. According to OPEC, global refining capacity is expected to increase by approximately 0.6 million barrels per day annually between 2025 and 2027. The rising supply of oil products has already led to a decrease in refining margins compared to record levels in 2022–2023, easing price pressures for consumers.
- Price Stabilisation and Local Disruptions. Prices for petrol and diesel have moved away from peak levels, reflecting the decrease in oil prices and increased supply of fuel. Nevertheless, local spikes remain possible: for example, recent cold weather in North America temporarily increased demand for heating fuel, and some countries in Europe still see elevated diesel premiums due to the restructuring of logistics chains following the embargo on Russian supplies. In some cases, governments are employing smoothing mechanisms—from reducing fuel excise taxes to releasing part of strategic reserves—to keep prices under control during sudden spikes in demand.
- Government Regulation of the Market. In certain countries, authorities are intervening directly in the fuel market to stabilise supply. In Russia, following the fuel crisis of 2025, export restrictions on oil products remain: the ban on the export of petrol and diesel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, allowing oil companies only limited foreign sales. Concurrently, the damping mechanism has been extended under which the state compensates refineries for the difference between domestic and export prices, incentivising supplies to the domestic market. These measures have alleviated the fuel shortage at gas stations, though they underscore the importance of manual management. In other regions (for instance, in some countries in Asia), authorities are also resorting to temporary support measures—reducing taxes, subsidising transport, or increasing import supplies—to mitigate the effects of sharp fluctuations in fuel prices.
Electricity Sector: Rising Demand and Modernisation of Networks
The global electricity sector is facing accelerated demand growth, accompanied by serious infrastructure challenges. According to the IEA, global electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 3.5% annually over the next five years—significantly outpacing the overall energy consumption growth. Primary drivers include the electrification of transport (increased electric vehicle fleets), digitalisation of the economy (expansion of data centres, development of AI), and climate factors (intensive use of air conditioning in hot climates). Following a period of stagnation in the 2010s, electricity demand is again increasing rapidly, even in developed countries.
In early 2026, extreme cold spells led to record peak loads on electricity systems in several countries. To avoid outages, operators had to activate standby coal and oil-fired power stations. Although coal's share in EU electricity generation fell to a record low of 9% by the end of 2025, some European states temporarily reactivated mothballed coal-fired power plants during the winter to cover peak loads. At the same time, infrastructure bottlenecks have emerged: insufficient network capacity forced limitations on energy dispatch from renewable energy sources on windy days to avoid overloads. These events underscore the urgent need for accelerated modernisation of the grid infrastructure and energy storage systems.
Key priorities for electricity sector development include:
- Modernisation and Expansion of Grids. The growth of loads necessitates a large-scale update and expansion of electrical grid infrastructure. In many countries, accelerated construction programs for power lines and the digitalisation of energy system management are being launched. According to the IEA, over 2,500 GW of new generation capacity and major consumers around the world are awaiting connection to the grids—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Annual investments in electrical grids are expected to increase by ~50% by 2030; otherwise, the growth of generation will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are implementing new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply during record loads. Energy storage systems are expanding everywhere—industrial battery farms are being constructed in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. These batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate intermittent renewable energy generation. Concurrently, network protection is being strengthened: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and upgrading equipment, taking into account the risks to reliability from extreme weather, infrastructure wear, and cyberattack threats. Governments and energy companies are allocating significant resources to enhance the flexibility and resilience of energy systems to avoid cascading outages amid growing dependence of the economy on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. The year 2025 saw record levels of renewable energy capacity additions, primarily from solar and wind power plants. According to preliminary IEA data, in 2025, the share of renewable energy in global electricity generation equalled coal's share for the first time (around 30%), with nuclear generation also reaching record levels. In 2026, clean energy is expected to continue ramping up production at a faster pace. Global investments in the energy transition are hitting new highs: according to BNEF, in 2025, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects (+8% from 2024). Leading economies are increasing support for "green" technologies, viewing them as a driver of sustainable growth.
Despite impressive progress, the rapid development of renewable energy is accompanied by challenges. The experience of the winter of 2025/26 demonstrated that with a high share of intermittent generation, the availability of backup generation and storage systems is critically important: even advanced "green" energy systems are vulnerable to weather anomalies. To enhance stability, some countries are adjusting policies; for instance, Germany is considering extending the operation of nuclear reactors, acknowledging the premature nature of a complete phase-out of nuclear energy, while the EU is temporarily relaxing certain climate standards to avoid price spikes. Nevertheless, the long-term course towards decarbonisation remains unchanged—its successful implementation requires a more flexible and balanced approach that combines rapid implementation of renewable energy with maintaining reliability of energy supply.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amidst Phase-Out
The global coal market in 2026 remains on the rise: global coal consumption is holding at historically high levels, despite efforts to reduce reliance on this fuel. According to the IEA, in 2025, global demand for coal exceeded 8 billion tonnes—close to record levels. The main reason is the consistently high demand in Asia. Economies such as China and India continue to burn enormous amounts of coal for electricity generation and industrial needs, compensating for the decline in coal use in Western Europe and the US.
- Asian Appetite. China and India account for the lion's share of global coal consumption. China, which makes up nearly 50% of global demand, has to increase imports during peak periods even while producing over 4 billion tonnes of coal annually. India is also ramping up production, but with its booming economy, it must import significant volumes of fuel (mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia). High Asian demand supports coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia—have boosted revenues due to stable orders from Asian countries.
- Gradual Phase-Out in the West. In Europe and North America, the coal sector continues to decline. After a temporary surge in coal use in the EU during 2022–2023, its share has again fallen: by the end of 2025, coal accounted for less than 10% of electricity generation in the EU. Record expansions of renewable energy and the reactivation of nuclear capacities are pushing coal out of the energy balance of developed countries. Investment in new coal projects has virtually ceased outside of Asia. It is expected that in the latter half of the decade, global coal demand will begin to decline consistently, although in the short term, this fuel will remain important for covering peak loads and industrial needs in developing economies.
Forecast and Prospects
Despite a series of winter upheavals, the global fuel and energy complex enters February 2026 without signs of panic, although in a state of heightened readiness. Short-term factors—extreme weather and geopolitical tensions—support price volatility in oil and gas; however, the systemic balance of supply and demand is generally stable. OPEC+ continues to play a stabilising role, preventing oil market deficits, and the operational reallocation of supplies and production increases from other countries (such as the US) compensates for local disruptions.
If no new shocks occur, oil prices are likely to remain close to current levels until the next OPEC+ meeting, when the alliance may revise quotas depending on the situation. For the gas market, the upcoming weeks will be decisive: mild weather in the latter half of winter may help lower prices and initiate stock replenishments, while a new cold front threatens price spikes and challenges for Europe. In spring, EU countries will face a substantial campaign to fill UGS for the next heating season—competition with Asia for LNG is expected to be fierce.
Investors are closely monitoring political signals. Potential progress in resolving geopolitical conflicts (for example, peace talks regarding Ukraine) or, conversely, escalation of tensions (a flare-up in US-Iranian confrontation) could significantly influence market sentiments. Nevertheless, long-term development vectors—technological changes, global energy transition, and climate agendas—will continue to define the landscape of the global fuel and energy complex, setting directions for investments and industry transformations for years to come.
