Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News for Thursday, 22 January 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Petroleum Products, Geopolitics and Key Energy Market Trends for Investors and Industry Participants
The latest developments in the global fuel and energy complex (TEC) on 22 January 2026 create a mixed backdrop for investors and market participants. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly strained: a trade conflict is escalating between the US and Europe due to Washington's attempts to exert control over Greenland, which raises the risk of a large-scale tariff war on both sides of the Atlantic. The European Union has already signalled its readiness to respond firmly to potential American tariffs, amplifying uncertainty for the global economy. Simultaneously, global markets are supported by positive factors: the Chinese economy is showing higher growth rates than expected, stimulating demand for energy resources, while in certain regions of the Middle East, tension is de-escalating, which reduces the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
The global oil market remains in a fragile equilibrium. Brent crude prices are holding around $64–66 per barrel, while American WTI is trading near $60, reflecting a balance between sufficient supply and recovering demand. The restrained price dynamics are largely due to the oversupply amid record production in the US and increasing exports from several non-OPEC countries; however, prices are supported by optimism regarding demand: recent strong economic data from the US and China have uplifted fuel consumption expectations. Meanwhile, the European gas market is demonstrating resilience in the midst of winter: while gas storage levels in the EU are decreasing with extraction, they remain approximately half full from total capacity — significantly above the average level for the end of January. Record high imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into Europe and a relatively mild winter start are keeping wholesale gas prices at moderate levels (about €35–40/MWh, significantly below the peaks of 2022). At the same time, the global energy transition is reaching new heights: many countries are setting fresh records in renewable energy (RE) electricity generation, although to maintain the reliability of energy systems, support from traditional coal and gas power plants remains essential. In Russia, the energy sector is adapting to ongoing sanctions: oil companies are continuing to redirect exports to friendly nations by employing workaround logistics, while authorities are keeping the domestic fuel market under control, preventing shortages and sharp price spikes following last year's crisis. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Prices Balancing Between Demand Growth and Trade Risks
Global oil prices are maintaining relative stability, although opposing forces are present in the market. On one hand, optimism regarding fuel demand is bolstering, particularly due to positive signals from Asia: a rebound in economic growth in China and other countries is contributing to an increase in oil consumption. On the other hand, investors are cautiously assessing the potential consequences of the trade standoff between the US and the EU, which could slow global economic growth and impact demand for energy resources. Consequently, Brent and WTI prices are moving within a narrow range, lacking sufficient momentum for either rise or decline.
- Sufficient Supply: The OPEC+ alliance maintained existing production restrictions for the first quarter of 2026 following its December meeting; however, global oil supply continues to grow. Record production in the US (over 13.5 million barrels per day) along with increased exports from Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and other countries is providing the market with additional volumes. The influx of new barrels is exerting downward pressure on prices and preventing significant price increases.
- Demand Recovery: The growth rate of global oil consumption remains moderate but steady. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand rose by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with a similar increase expected in 2026. Rapidly developing Asian economies, primarily China and India, continue to increase oil imports, compensating for stagnant consumption in Europe. This provides support to the oil market on the demand side.
- Geopolitical Risks: The international situation remains tense. New sanction threats targeting the oil sector (for example, US plans to tighten control over the sale of Russian oil through third countries) and the threat of imposing tariffs among Western partners are increasing uncertainty. Although actual supply disruptions have not yet materialized, the mere fact of heightened rhetoric around sanctions and trade disputes compels market participants to act cautiously. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar amid these risks benefits commodity prices, partially supporting oil prices.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Grows, but Stocks and LNG Keep Prices Steady
The gas market remains focused on Europe, which is experiencing winter without significant upheaval. Despite January's cold weather and increased demand for heating, the gas supply situation appears secure. High starting inventories and active LNG imports have alleviated the impact of seasonal spikes in consumption, allowing the region to avoid repeating the crisis scenarios of previous years.
- Comfortable Stocks: EU countries entered winter with gas storage levels at record high (over 80% capacity at the start of the heating season). As of late January, European underground gas storage remains approximately 50% full, which, although lower than a year ago, is considerably higher than the multi-year average for this time of year. A solid stock in storage means that even with further cold weather, Europe has reserves to cover demand.
- Record LNG Imports: Throughout 2025, European countries dramatically increased liquefied natural gas purchases to historical highs to compensate for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia. By the beginning of 2026, LNG accounted for over 35% of Europe’s gas supply structure. Major suppliers, including the US, Qatar, and other Middle Eastern exporters, are directing significant volumes of LNG to the European market. This influx helped fill storage and currently maintains prices at relatively low levels, around $400 per thousand cubic meters, despite high winter demand.
- Price Dynamics: Gas exchange quotes in Europe remain far from the extremes of 2022. While on certain days, amidst the cold snap, TTF hub prices rise above €40/MWh, overall, the market remains stable. Moderate prices ease the burden on industry and consumers, reducing energy costs compared to the recent crisis period. Experts note that should current trends persist, Europe will likely complete the winter of 2025/26 without gas shortages. The main risks are shifting towards the summer months, when storage will need to be replenished for the next heating season; competition with Asian LNG importers may intensify, affecting price dynamics.
International Politics: Escalation of US-EU Trade Conflict and Increasing Sanction Pressures
Geopolitical factors are increasingly influencing energy markets. In January, relations between the US and its European allies sharply deteriorated due to a controversial initiative from Washington to purchase Greenland. President Donald Trump publicly expressed his intention, starting in February, to impose substantial tariffs (ranging from 10% to 25%) on imports from several European countries, including Denmark, Norway, Germany, France, and the UK, in response to the Europeans' refusal to discuss the sale of Greenland. This unprecedented measure has alarmed the European Union: Brussels has stated its readiness for coordinated responses, including potentially imposing mirror tariffs on American goods. The prospect of a transatlantic trade war has emerged, threatening to slow economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic.
The exchange of sharp statements is exacerbating market nerves. Investors are concerned that the escalation of the conflict between the world's largest economies could adversely impact oil and gas demand. Already, it has been observed that news of potential trade barriers prompts a flight to safe assets and a weakening of the US dollar, which indirectly supports commodity prices. However, if threats materialize into actual tariffs, it could negatively impact European industry and decrease fuel consumption. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, EU and US representatives are attempting to unofficially soften their tone, but thus far, neither side has shown readiness to compromise on principled positions.
Meanwhile, the sanction policy concerning Russian oil and gas is only becoming stricter. The US administration has made it clear that it does not intend to weaken pressure on Moscow. The head of the US Treasury, speaking in Davos, reproached some countries for covertly purchasing Russian energy resources through third countries and threatened to take extraordinary measures. Washington is discussing the possibility of imposing 500% tariffs on energy carriers for those states caught violating the price cap and embargo against Russia. Although these radical measures are still under discussion, the rhetoric is severe. Existing restrictions (EU oil embargo, G7 price cap, etc.) remain fully in force, and Western regulators underline their readiness to more closely monitor compliance. Thus, hopes for a relaxation of the sanction standoff, which had emerged previously, have shifted to an understanding that pressure on the Russian TEC may only intensify. Energy companies and investors will need to consider this factor in their strategies for 2026, as further confrontation will impact both supply routes and price situations in global markets.
Asia: India and China Balancing Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: New Delhi is striving to ensure energy security amid sanction pressures and market volatility. Despite Western pressure to reduce cooperation with sanctioned suppliers, India continues to purchase substantial volumes of Russian oil and petroleum products, deeming it impossible to quickly wean off. Indian refiners are securing crude on advantageous terms — with significant discounts to world prices. According to traders, the discount on Urals for India is reaching $4–5 per barrel relative to Brent, making these supplies particularly attractive. As a result, the country retains its status as one of the largest importers of Russian oil while simultaneously increasing purchases from the global market to meet domestic demand. Concurrently, the government is actively developing its resource base: following the initiative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a large-scale geological exploration and extraction programme has been underway since August last year. The state company ONGC is drilling ultra-deep wells in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, with initial results deemed encouraging. This strategy aims to open new fields and gradually reduce India's reliance on imports in the long term.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is increasing its overseas energy carrier purchases while simultaneously boosting domestic production volumes. Beijing has not joined the sanctions against Moscow and is seizing the opportunity to procure record volumes of raw materials at lower prices. According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in 2025 China imported around 577 million tonnes of oil (approximately 11.5 million barrels per day), an increase of 4.4% compared to the previous year, while total expenses on oil imports dropped by nearly 9% due to cheaper raw materials. Russia remains China’s largest oil supplier (around 101 million tonnes, a decrease of 7% compared to 2024), accounting for one-fifth of Chinese imports, followed by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Malaysia, which acts as a transit point for supplies from Iran and Venezuela. At the same time, China is achieving its own production records: in 2025, over 216 million tonnes of oil was produced domestically (+1.5% year-on-year) and 262 billion cubic meters of gas (+6.2%). Although production growth is not keeping pace with consumption growth, the annual increase in domestic volumes helps to partially meet needs. Nevertheless, China remains heavily reliant on external supplies — estimates suggest that around 70% of consumed oil and up to 40% of gas will still need to be imported. In the coming years, Beijing plans to maintain a balance between imports and resource development, investing in new extraction technologies and exploration. Thus, the two Asian powers — India and China — will continue to play a key role in the global TEC market, acting as major importers while simultaneously increasing their own production to bolster energy independence.
Energy Transition: RE Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift towards clean energy is rapidly progressing, setting ever-new records. By the end of 2025, many countries achieved historic peaks in electricity generation from renewable sources — primarily solar and wind. In the European Union, the share of "green" generation surpassed that of coal and gas power plants in one year, consolidating the trend of rising RE within the energy balance. On certain days, in major EU economies (Germany, Spain, the UK, etc.), solar and wind power stations collectively supplied more than half of all consumed electricity. In the US, the share of renewable energy confidently exceeds 30%, and in some months, output from RE has already surpassed production from coal-fired power stations. China, possessing the largest RE capacities in the world, continues to introduce tens of gigawatts of new solar and wind installations each year, setting its own records in clean energy installation.
Investment growth in sustainable energy is also impressive. According to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector surpassed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this amount allocated to RE projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. Large oil, gas, and energy companies are diversifying their operations, increasingly investing in wind and solar generation, as well as energy storage technologies, in response to decarbonisation targets and investor demands for sustainability. This shift in strategies amongst industry leaders reflects the broader global trend: energy companies are preparing for a future dominated by low-carbon sources.
At the same time, achieving a complete phase-out of fossil fuels is still unattainable — traditional generation remains essential for ensuring energy system stability. The increasing share of RE presents new challenges: the variable nature of solar and wind energy necessitates backup capacities to account for windless days or lack of sunlight. During peak consumption hours or extreme weather conditions, gas and occasionally coal power plants are still required to meet load and prevent electricity outages. For instance, during recent cold anticyclones, some European countries had to briefly increase coal-fired generation to compensate for the decreased output from RE and high demand for electric heating. In order to minimise such situations, governments are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing loads. Concurrently, several countries are reverting to nuclear energy as a reliable low-carbon source: in January 2026, Japan began the phased restart of the largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, bringing its first reactor online after years of inactivity, symbolising a global trend of renewed interest in nuclear generation.
Experts predict that in the next 2–3 years, renewable sources may surpass fossil fuels globally in electricity generation, overtaking coal as the primary source of generation. However, ensuring reliability will be key to a successful energy transition: until energy storage technologies become sufficiently widespread and accessible, traditional power plants will continue to play a role as an insurance reserve. Thus, the global energy transition is entering a new phase — renewable energy is breaking records and nearing leadership positions, but harmonious coexistence with traditional generation remains a necessary condition for energy system stability.
Coal: Strong Demand Supports Market Stability
The global coal market continues to be characterised by high consumption levels and relative price stability, despite global efforts towards decarbonisation. In 2025, total coal consumption reached record levels, primarily driven by growth in developing economies in Asia. China reaffirmed its status as the largest consumer and producer of coal: production in China increased to approximately 4.83 billion tonnes (+1.2% year-on-year), which slightly exceeded the previous year's level but constituted a historical maximum. These immense volumes barely cover domestic demand: during peak periods (for example, in the summer during abnormal heat waves when air conditioning loads rise), China has to burn coal at nearly record rates, with domestic production operating at full capacity. India, possessing significant coal reserves, also actively utilises this resource to ensure its energy balance — over 70% of electricity in the country is still generated from coal-fired power stations. As the economy grows and electrification expands, coal demand in India continues to rise. Other Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh) are implementing projects to build new coal-fired power stations to satisfy growing electricity needs and avoid energy shortages.
The supply on the global coal market meets high demand. Major exporters — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa — have increased production and export of thermal coal in recent years, which has enabled them to meet the requirements of major importers. Following sharp price fluctuations in 2021–2022, the situation has normalised: in 2025, prices for thermal coal fluctuated within a relatively narrow range that is comfortable for both producers and consumers. Coal remains one of the pillars of the global energy sector in the short term. Although more countries are announcing plans to reduce coal use in the fight against climate change, this energy carrier will continue to play a significant role in the next 5–10 years, particularly in the Asian region. The process of replacing coal with renewables and gas will take years, if not decades; therefore, in the foreseeable future, coal generation will remain part of the energy balance. The challenge for the sector is to find a balance between environmental goals and current energy needs: until technologies and infrastructure allow for a complete phase-out of coal, the demand for this fuel will remain stable due to persistent consumption.
Petroleum Products and Refining: High Margins for Refineries
The global petroleum product market landscape at the beginning of 2026 is favourable for refineries and fuel companies. Relatively low oil prices, combined with steady demand for key fuel types — gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel — are ensuring high refining margins across various regions. Refiners are enjoying good profits by taking advantage of cheap feedstock while still benefiting from significant volumes of petroleum product consumption.
- Increase in Refinery Profits: Global indicative refining margins are holding near multi-year highs. The production of diesel is particularly lucrative, as demand remains high in the transportation sector and industry worldwide. The global diesel market is experiencing relative shortages: reduced export supplies from Russia, implemented by the country to stabilise the domestic market following the 2025 crisis, have limited international availability. As a result, European and Asian refineries have been able to increase the production of high-value diesel and extract additional profits.
- New Capacities vs. Closure of Old Ones: Modern refinery complexes are actively being built in Asia and the Middle East. Major projects in China, India, and the Persian Gulf countries are introducing new capacities, increasing the global refining volume. Concurrently, several outdated refineries in Europe and North America have been closed or repurposed for biofuel production due to environmental considerations and declining margins. This parallel process — the launch of new mega refineries in the East and capacity reductions in the West — helps avoid an oversaturated petroleum product market. The balance between fuel supply and demand is maintained, allowing refining margins to remain high.
- Stability of the Domestic Market: Exporting countries are implementing measures to support their domestic fuel markets, which also influences global dynamics. For instance, in Russia, authorities temporarily banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel in 2025 to saturate the domestic market and reduce record prices. These restrictions, partially lifted by the end of the year, prevented shortages within the country but simultaneously reduced the available supply of Russian petroleum products abroad. For the global market, this has been one of the factors keeping fuel prices from declining and supporting refiners' revenues in other countries. Overall, the combination of regional specifics — from Asian capacity expansion to export restrictions — is creating favourable conditions for participants in the refining market at the beginning of 2026.
Thus, the news from the oil, gas, and energy sector on 22 January 2026 reflects a complex intertwining of geopolitical challenges and market factors. Despite the tightening sanctions and the threat of a trade war between the West and the US, global energy markets are demonstrating relative stability. Investors and fuel-energy companies continue to adapt to the new reality: oil prices are being held at moderate levels due to the balance of supply and demand, gas markets are navigating the winter without disruptions, and the energy transition is gaining momentum, opening new opportunities. In the coming months, TEC market participants will need to closely monitor the development of the US-EU trade conflict, the implementation of sanction threats, and further demand signals from major economies to respond timely to changes and maintain resilience amid global uncertainty.
