Global News from the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector for Thursday, January 15, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products and Refineries. Key Events from the Global Energy Market, Trends and Factors for Investors and Industry Participants.
Global oil and gas markets at the beginning of 2026 are showing signs of an escalating surplus, while renewable energy continues its record growth trajectory. Oil prices remain under pressure due to a boom in production in the US and other regions, while demand for hydrocarbons is constrained by a slowdown in the global economy. Simultaneously, governments and companies are ramping up investments in 'clean' energy, resulting in a historic reduction in coal's share and the first drop in coal generation in China and India in over half a century. In such conditions, investors and energy sector participants are analysing the power dynamics between the surplus of fossil fuels and the prospects of the energy transition.
Global Oil Market
In January, Brent oil is trading in the range of $60-65 per barrel, while US WTI is around $58-60. In the fourth quarter of 2025, prices declined compared to peak levels of the previous year. Experts forecast the average price of Brent in 2026 at approximately $60 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be near $58. At the January meeting of OPEC+ (January 4), it was decided to maintain the established production quotas to limit market volatility. Despite this, fundamental factors indicate an oversupply:
- A survey of analysts in December 2025 indicated expectations of an average Brent price of around $61/barrel, and WTI at $58/barrel in 2026.
- New production in the USA, Canada, and Latin America is coming online, increasing export volumes to the market.
- Last week, OPEC+ maintained production without cuts, focusing efforts on stabilising prices rather than artificially increasing them.
- Russia plans to maintain oil and gas condensate production at the 2024 level (around 10.3 million barrels/day), adding stable supply.
As a result, the expectation of a balance between supply and demand remains slightly optimistic: even with unexpected disruptions (in Venezuela, Iran, etc.), the oversupply of oil threatens to suppress prices. Meanwhile, global oil futures continue to fluctuate amidst geopolitical risks and moderate demand forecasts. The oil market operates in a state of careful monitoring of OPEC strategies, inventory data, and the global economic situation.
Overproduction and Geopolitics
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil supply in 2026 will exceed demand by approximately 3-4 million barrels/day, marking it as a 'year of global oversupply.' Global production has significantly increased in recent years due to shifts in the USA, Canada, Brazil, and the Emirates. Conversely, representatives from OPEC and certain producers consider the market to be relatively balanced. Key factors contributing to the oversupply and risks include:
- The IEA forecasts a global demand shortfall of about 4% against production, while OPEC expects a market close to equilibrium.
- China is actively replenishing its strategic oil reserves: purchases on the global spot market have increased, partially absorbing the surplus.
- Global oil inventories aboard tankers have reached peak levels since the pandemic in 2020, indicating growth in onshore storage.
- Sanctions against Russia and Iran are limiting their oil exports (e.g., US restrictions on tankers), but significant price increases have not yet occurred.
- Local conflicts (strikes in Venezuela, instability in Libya) create uncertainty regarding supplies, but their impact on the global balance is limited.
Thus, the oversupply of oil in the market continues to exert pressure on prices. Investors are keeping an eye out for signals regarding additional production cuts: while supply exceeds demand, a sharp easing of OPEC+ policy or new sanctions could alter the situation in the latter half of the year.
Natural Gas and LNG Market
Seasonal demand is restraining natural gas prices. In the USA, gas at the Henry Hub is trading at about $3-4/MMBtu due to a mild winter and surplus production. In Europe, prices remain in the vicinity of $10-12/MMBtu (TTF) due to reduced storage levels and heating needs. The international LNG market is also on the brink of oversupply: in the coming years, dozens of millions of tonnes of new export capacity will come online. Key trends in the gas sector include:
- Global LNG exports are expanding sharply: by 2026-2027, over 90-100 million tonnes of new capacity (Qatar North Field, Golden Pass, Scarborough, projects in Africa, etc.) are planned to come online, leading to a 'sellers' market' with excess supply.
- Analysts at Bernstein predict that spot prices for LNG could drop from ~$12 to ~$9/MMBtu as new plants come online. The primary burden of falling prices will fall on exporters, while consumers (especially in Asia and Europe) will benefit from cheaper fuel.
- The USA remains the largest LNG exporter: by 2026-2029, their share may increase to ~70% of supplies to the EU (up from 58% in 2025), considering the EU's plans to phase out Russian gas by 2027-2028.
- European storage levels are historically low (around 82% capacity by October), and a drop to 29% by the end of the season is possible if cold weather persists, adding volatility to gas prices.
- Production of associated gas is rising in Perm (USA) and other regions: new pipelines to the coast are boosting gas supply for LNG production and local markets.
As a result, the gas market is balancing between record supplies and seasonal demand. Asia accounts for approximately 85% of the increase in LNG demand, but this has stabilised. Europe is importing record volumes of LNG in preparation for the phase-out of Russian supplies. Despite the oversupply, current cold temperatures and pipeline constraints may sustain prices at moderate levels as winter approaches.
Coal Sector
Coal generation in key economies is now showing signs of stagnation for the first time. According to energy analysts, coal-fired power generation volumes declined in both China and India in 2025 (by 1.6% and 3.0% respectively). This decline has been facilitated by record increases in solar and wind capacity, which have outstripped the growth in electricity demand. Key observations regarding the coal market include:
- For China and India, 2025 marks the first year since 1973 where total coal generation has fallen alongside rising energy consumption.
- The reason is the explosive growth of 'clean' generation: in just 11 months of 2025, solar and wind generation added approximately 450 TWh, surpassing the 460 TWh growth in consumption.
- Nonetheless, China has actively imported coal ahead of the heating season: December coal imports rose by 12% year-on-year to meet short-term demand and replenish stockpiles.
- Global coal prices remain high due to limited development of new mines and persistent demand in several countries (e.g., South Africa and Southeast Asia).
- A paradigm shift is evident: as renewable energy continues to grow, coal's share in the energy balance will gradually decline, signalling a potential 'peak' in coal generation by the end of the decade.
Consequently, the coal sector is entering a phase of gradual contraction. Despite fluctuations in seasonal demand, the long-term role of coal in the global energy landscape is diminishing, while the demand for alternative energy sources is increasing.
Renewable Energy and Electricity Generation
The global energy sector continues its massive shift towards renewable sources and electrification. In 2025, China set a record for the installation of solar and wind capacities (over 500 GW of new installations combined), doubling any previous figures. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its forecast for global renewable energy growth by 20% to 2030 (to 4600 GW), citing a slowdown in the USA and Europe. Key trends in the electricity sector include:
- Electricity demand is growing at approximately 4% annually until 2027, driven by the boom of data centres, electric vehicles, and climate control in developing economies.
- Technology advancements: the costs of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries continue to decline, enhancing the competitiveness of renewables and electric transportation.
- Grid flexibility: due to the increase in variable generation, operators are intensifying the deployment of smart grids and new load forecasting tools (e.g., AI consumption predictions). In light of capacity constraints, large consumers (data centres) are increasingly investing in on-site generation and batteries.
- Government policy: despite a trend towards cuts in support programmes in some countries, the overarching decarbonisation plans of most major economies remain intact. China, the EU, and the USA have announced continued development of renewables, although the pace may vary.
Therefore, energy systems are balancing between growing demand and the development of renewable technologies. Capacity reserves are increasing, but enhancing the reliability of grids remains a challenge for 2026, as financial and technological constraints slow the pace of transition.
Oil Products and Refining
The oil products market remains deficient in diesel while being more balanced for gasoline and aviation kerosene. European refineries are operating at full capacity, with the diesel shortfall prompting governments to impose bans on the import of oil products from Russia (starting in 2025) and to stimulate increased refining capacity in other regions. Key highlights include:
- Diesel margins continue to rise: in 2025, they surged by approximately 30% due to export restrictions from Russia and decreasing supplies following infrastructure strikes.
- Margins for gasoline and aviation kerosene are more stable as global demand for flammable fuels remains steady; companies compensate for discrepancies by increasing supplies from the USA and Asia.
- Global refining capacity is virtually stagnant: few new major refineries are being built, and existing facilities are being upgraded to meet transitional needs (including processing heavy oils and producing biofuels).
- Cross-border projects (e.g., pipelines for cheaper oil grades) have allowed some companies to optimise logistics costs.
- Looking ahead, investors are paying attention to product environmental standards: there is an increased implementation of mandatory bio-component blends and sulphur reduction requirements, which will also affect refinery upgrade plans.
Overall, the oil products segment is characterised by steady demand and structural changes: refiners maintain high capacity utilisation, while market players are redirecting some fuel towards the production of more environmentally-friendly blends and other products.
Strategies of Major Oil and Gas Companies
Global oil and gas companies continue to adapt their strategies to new realities: caution in spending remains, alongside a preparedness for long-term energy demand growth. The main trends in the corporate sector include:
- Reduction of CAPEX: major players (Exxon, Chevron, TotalEnergies, etc.) have cut their capital expenditure plans for 2026 by approximately 10%, optimising projects and realising savings.
- BP and Shell: BP has announced write-offs of $4-5 billion for low-yield projects in the low-carbon energy segment and has significantly reduced budgets for 'green' initiatives, refocusing efforts on oil and gas extraction.
- Despite this, most companies maintain long-term optimism: investments in exploration and the development of new fields are being pushed back to the later part of the decade (2030s), while extraction plans remain significant.
- In the Middle East and Asia, national oil companies (Aramco, ADNOC, CNPC, etc.) are increasing capital expenditures in upstream projects, preparing for long-term demand for hydrocarbons.
- Mergers and acquisitions: financially strong companies are considering acquiring competitors' assets to take advantage of the current market volatility and solidify their positions.
Thus, major oil and gas players are demonstrating a balanced approach: in the short term, there is tight optimisation of expenses, while in the long term, there is an expansion of resource bases. This creates conditions for potential consolidation and a reassessment of priorities in developing new technologies and assets.
Outlook and Forecasts for 2026
A balanced conclusion to the winter-spring season of 2026 will be critical for the fuel and energy complex. Most analysts believe that the early months of the year will be characterised by surplus, with price growth prospects dependent on supply and climate balance. Key takeaways and expectations include:
- 2026 could become the 'year of abundance' for fuels: the oversupply of oil and gas in the first half of the year will exert downward pressure on prices. The average price of Brent is expected to be around $55-60/barrel (with WTI around $55), although sharp deviations could occur only due to new conflicts or supply disruptions.
- Demand for hydrocarbons is constrained by gentle growth in the global economy and accelerating transitions to alternatives. The electrification of transport and industry is gradually reducing demand growth for oil, while the phase-out of coal in energy generation is generating long-term shifts in the fuel balance.
- Energy efficiency policies and the fight against climate change are influencing the strategies of countries and companies: alongside ensuring energy security, there is an increase in climate ambitions (development of renewables, preservation of fossil fuel reserves as strategic resources).
- By the end of 2026, markets could gain clarity regarding balances: if rising supplies offset moderate demand, prices will settle at lower levels, providing investors with time to rebalance portfolios.
In summary, as of January 15, 2026, global energy markets are characterised by a surplus of raw materials suppressing prices, alongside unprecedented advancement in 'clean' energy. Investors and companies continue to closely monitor the balance between the emerging 'green' paradigm and the traditional oil and gas business model, preparing for changes in the structure of global energy distribution.
