Current Trends in the Fuel and Energy Sector as of 16 November 2025: Sanction Pressure, Stabilisation of Oil and Gas Prices, Growth in Renewable Investments, Winter Risks for Energy Supply, and Recovery of Fuel Processing
The latest developments in the fuel and energy sector as of 16 November 2025 unfold against a backdrop of conflicting trends. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with the West expanding sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector. However, some conflicts show signs of easing: a ceasefire is being maintained in the Middle East, and the USA and China have reached a temporary trade truce, improving global demand forecasts. Oil prices have stabilised at a moderate level after a decline, with Brent crude trading at around $63–65 per barrel, and WTI near $59–60. These levels are significantly lower than summer peaks and approximately 10% lower than a month ago, reflecting expectations of an oil surplus by the year's end. Traders are factoring in a scenario in which supply will exceed demand in the fourth quarter, limiting price increases. At the same time, new risks prevent prices from declining significantly, as the market accounts for the impact of sanctions and potential supply disruptions.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Sanction Pressures
The global oil market remains in a state of fragile equilibrium. By mid-November, oil prices have stabilised following an autumn decline: Brent crude is trading around $63-65 per barrel, while WTI is near $59-60. These prices are considerably below the summer highs and approximately 10% lower than a month ago, reflecting expectations of an oil surplus by the end of the year. Traders are pricing in a scenario where supply will outstrip demand in the fourth quarter, thus limiting any upward movement in prices. Conversely, emerging risks are preventing prices from falling further, as the market considers the effects of sanctions and possible disruptions in supply.
- Increasing Production and Slowing Demand. OPEC+ countries are gradually ramping up production (with an increase of 137 thousand barrels per day in December, followed by a pause until April). Outside the alliance, major producers such as the USA and Brazil have reached record production levels. However, global demand growth has slowed: projections indicate that oil consumption will rise by less than 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to +2 million in 2023) due to a slowdown in the global economy and energy conservation measures.
- Sanction Pressures and Redistribution of Flows. New sanctions imposed by the USA and the UK against subsidiaries of Rosneft and LUKOIL come into effect, complicating the export of Russian oil and forcing Moscow to seek new buyers. Under pressure from Western partners, India has unexpectedly expressed willingness to gradually reduce its purchases of Russian oil — the loss of such a key client could radically alter global crude flows.
- Geopolitical Risks Persist. The conflict surrounding Ukraine continues to be unresolved, with military actions threatening energy supplies. In mid-November, a Ukrainian drone strike on the Port of Novorossiysk damaged oil infrastructure and halted shipments, triggering a spike in prices of over 2%. Such incidents prevent prices from declining further, maintaining a certain geopolitical premium in the market.
Gas Market: Full Stores and Winter Uncertainty
The gas market is characterised by a seasonal balancing act between high stock levels and weather-related risks. Europe enters the heating season with underground storage facilities filled to an average of approximately 82% — this is lower than last year's record of 92%, but still provides a substantial reserve. Thanks to a mild autumn, European gas prices have dropped to comfortable levels: the TTF benchmark futures recently fell to around €30 per MWh (approximately $10 per million BTUs), the lowest since spring 2024. However, forecasts of a sharp cold snap return volatility to the market: as colder weather approaches, prices have begun to rise from their recent lows.
- High Stocks and Growing Consumption. Meteorologists are warning of significant temperature drops in Western Europe (5-7 °C below the norm), which will sharply increase gas consumption for heating next week. Should the winter prove harsh, European stocks may deplete faster than usual, prompting a new spike in prices and necessitating increased imports.
- LNG Market Ensures Balance. The spot market for liquefied natural gas remains the primary source of supply for the EU following the cessation of pipeline deliveries from Russia. LNG imports to Europe have remained robust, thanks to record exports from the USA, Qatar, and other producers. Demand for gas in Asia remains moderate — the slowing Chinese economy and full storage facilities in East Asia mean there has been no competition for LNG resources this autumn.
Electricity Sector: Record Renewable Growth and System Resilience
Global electricity generation is undergoing structural changes linked to the increasing share of renewable sources and the modernisation of energy grids. In 2025, many countries are generating record amounts of electricity from renewables, supplanting coal generation. According to analysts, during the first half of 2025, global output from renewable sources exceeded generation from coal-fired power plants for the first time. In some cases, the share of solar and wind in the energy system reaches 80–100% (as in Europe). Similar trends are evident in other major economies (the USA, China, India), reflecting the progress of the energy transition. However, the rapid growth of renewable energy presents new challenges in ensuring grid stability.
- Reliability of Energy Supply. The variable nature of wind and solar requires the development of energy storage systems and backup generation capacity. Gas and coal stations are still being utilised to meet winter peak loads, though their role is gradually diminishing. In developed countries, it is expected that current capacities will suffice even during significant cold snaps, although electricity prices may increase in such scenarios.
- Policy and Technology. Governments worldwide are supporting the trend towards the decarbonisation of energy. In the EU, new ambitious goals for the share of renewables by 2030 are being established; large-scale solar and wind farm projects are being implemented in China and India, while the USA is revising clean energy support measures. Concurrently, there is increased interest in “clean” nuclear generation and hydrogen technologies as elements of future energy systems. Energy companies are investing in upgrading grids and storage systems. Hence, the electricity sector is moving towards a more sustainable model: infrastructure is being updated, ‘green’ capacities are increasing, and measures are being taken to ensure the reliability of energy supply during the transition period.
Coal Sector: Demand at a Plateau and Industry Pressure
The coal industry is at a turning point: global demand stabilises around peak levels and begins to gradually decline, while production remains high.
- Peak Consumption. Global coal consumption reached an all-time high in 2024 (~8.8 billion tonnes), but growth halted in 2025. International forecasts suggest a plateau in consumption during 2025–2026, followed by a decline as environmental policies tighten and competition from renewables increases.
- Oversupply. Coal production remains at peak levels, resulting in excessive stockpiles. Coal prices have fallen to their lowest levels in recent years, impacting company profits. High-cost exporters (particularly in Russia) are facing significant challenges. The market is already responding with reduced production; many companies are being forced to cut back on extraction to adapt to the new realities.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Commitments
The accelerated growth of renewable energy continues worldwide, although to meet climate objectives, the pace of renewable deployment still needs to increase. Governments are preparing additional support measures for the low-carbon sector.
- Record Capacities. In 2024, around 582 GW of new renewables were brought online globally (a historic maximum). In 2025, an increase of up to 700 GW is expected. However, to triple capacities by 2030, an even higher annual growth rate (around 16%) is required.
- Political Support. At the upcoming COP30 summit, countries will discuss strengthening commitments to transition to clean energy. Even now, many economies have announced ambitious renewable goals, and despite certain challenges (such as subsidy revisions), the global energy transition is becoming irreversible — renewable technologies are rapidly decreasing in cost and displacing fossil fuels.
Oil Refining and Fuel Market: Supply Stabilisation and Price Control
After the turbulence at the start of autumn, the global oil products market is showing signs of stabilisation. The easing of oil prices and seasonal declines in fuel demand (with the end of the summer driving season) have allowed refineries to replenish stocks of petrol and diesel. In Europe and the USA, wholesale prices for oil products have retreated from September peaks, leading to a modest reduction in the cost of fuel for consumers. The situation in the domestic market of Russia, which experienced an acute petrol shortage in September, has also normalised due to emergency measures taken by the government.
- Crisis Measures in Russia. The government temporarily banned the export of petrol and diesel and increased subsidies to refineries to redirect resources to the domestic market. These measures have enabled the rapid elimination of fuel shortages: production has returned to previous levels, filling stations are adequately supplied, and wholesale prices have decreased. Authorities have announced plans to gradually lift export restrictions as stability is established.
- Global Stabilisation. This autumn, the global oil products market has been granted some reprieve. Increased fuel exports from OPEC countries and Asia have partially compensated for the lost volumes from Russia, while seasonal demand decline has allowed stocks to be replenished. Prices for petrol and diesel have returned to levels observed at the beginning of summer: fuel costs in Europe and the USA have significantly decreased from September peaks. Demand for diesel and heavy fuel oil is expected to rise in winter, but without drastic price spikes, provided oil prices remain stable.
