Current Energy Sector News as of 11 November 2025: Signals of Easing Sanction Tensions, Stable Oil Prices, Robust Gas Supplies in Europe, and Progress in Energy Transition. A Detailed Overview for Investors and Companies in the Fuel and Energy Sector.
As of 11 November 2025, the global fuel and energy complex continues to operate under conditions of persistent geopolitical tension; however, there are emerging signals suggesting a potential easing of sanction confrontations. The sanctions standoff between Russia and the West remains a key factor for the industry: the European Union has approved another (the 19th) package of restrictions aimed at reducing revenues from the Russian energy sector (including a phased ban on importing Russian gas by 2026–2027), while the United States imposed sanctions against major Russian oil and gas companies at the end of October, with consequences already being felt. The oil company Lukoil has been forced to declare force majeure at its largest foreign field in Iraq due to the freezing of payments caused by U.S. sanctions. Nevertheless, Washington is demonstrating flexibility — following the visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to grant Budapest a one-year exemption from sanctions on purchasing Russian oil and gas. This step instills cautious hopes for a partial easing of energy restrictions for certain allies, despite the overall maintenance of sanctions pressure.
Concurrently, commodity markets are showing relative stability. Oil prices have stabilised at moderate levels: the North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $63–65 per barrel. These figures are significantly lower than the summer peaks, reflecting expectations of a supply surplus by year-end. High output from OPEC+ and record volumes of oil from the U.S. are offsetting slowing demand growth, creating a bearish backdrop. However, geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding sanctions continue to contribute to a slight premium in prices, preventing quotations from plunging further.
The European gas market confidently approaches the winter season: underground gas storage facilities in EU countries are approximately 85% full, while diversified LNG imports from the U.S., Qatar, and other exporters are compensating for a sharp decline in pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas prices in Europe remain significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022, with volatility in recent months predominantly driven by weather factors. If the upcoming winter does not deliver anomalous cold spells, Europe has every chance of navigating the heating season without price shocks.
The global energy transition is gaining momentum. In 2025, there continues to be a record scaling of renewable energy capacities — from large solar parks to offshore wind farms. Many countries are achieving new peaks in green energy production, although to ensure the reliability of energy systems, governments are simultaneously supporting traditional generation (gas, coal, nuclear). Concurrently, innovations are being implemented: sales of electric vehicles are increasing, hydrogen projects are being launched, and energy companies are investing in energy storage systems and digitisation of networks.
In Russia, the emergency measures adopted in autumn to stabilise the domestic fuel market are yielding results. Restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel, alongside adjustments to damping subsidies for refineries, have allowed wholesale prices to drop and have provided fuel to problematic regions. Following a frenzied price spike in August, the situation at gas stations is normalising; the government is considering the gradual easing of export barriers at the beginning of 2026, provided that prices remain affordable for domestic consumers.
Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends across the oil, gas, energy, renewable, coal, and oil refining segments as of the current date.
Key Points
- Oil: Supply from OPEC+ and record production in the U.S. keep oil prices in a moderate range (~$60–65 per barrel Brent) amidst slowing demand growth.
- Gas: Europe enters winter with high gas reserves (~85% storage); record LNG imports from the U.S., Qatar, and others are compensating for the reduction in pipeline supplies, restraining prices from sharp increases.
- Sanctions and Geopolitics: New U.S. and EU measures intensify pressure on the Russian energy sector; companies and investors are forced to adapt by redirecting markets. However, the U.S. decision to exempt Hungary from part of the restrictions signals the possibility of exceptions for allies.
- Asia: China and India remain key drivers of hydrocarbon demand. China's economic slowdown limits consumption growth, while India continues to purchase Russian oil despite Western pressure. Both countries are also increasing investments in renewable energy to enhance energy security.
- Electricity and Renewables: Global generation from renewables sets records in 2025 with accelerated growth in wind and solar capacities; however, the variable nature of green energy necessitates the development of storage systems and support for baseline (nuclear, gas) generation for reliable energy supply.
- Russian Fuel Market: In Russia, restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports have been extended, and alongside adjustments to refinery subsidies, stabilised domestic prices following summer spikes. Additional fuel volumes are directed to the domestic market; the situation with fuel supply at gas stations has normalised; gradual abolition of export barriers in 2026 is under discussion, provided price stability is maintained.
Oil Market: Supply Glut and Slowing Demand Restrain Prices
Prices. By mid-November, global oil prices remain at relatively low levels after a decline in the autumn. The benchmark Brent blend is trading in the range of about $63–65 per barrel. This level is approximately 10–15% lower than in early summer, reflecting a shift in the market balance towards a surplus. Geopolitical factors (conflicts and sanction risks) add a slight premium to prices, but overall market participants maintain a cautious outlook.
- Supply: OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing production after a period of strict restrictions. At an extraordinary meeting in early November, the alliance agreed to a symbolic increase in quotas (~+137 thousand barrels/day from December), postponing more significant growth until the first quarter of 2026. Simultaneously, oil production in the U.S. has reached a record ~13 million barrels/day due to the shale boom and easing of environmental regulations. High supply from OPEC+, the U.S., and other producers eases the global balance.
- Demand: Global oil consumption growth is slowing. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand growth in 2025 is estimated to be less than 1 million barrels/day (in comparison, demand grew by more than 2 million barrels/day in 2023). OPEC also forecasts moderate growth (~+1.3 million barrels/day). Reasons include the slowing global economy (particularly in China), the effect of previously high prices that stimulated energy conservation and improved efficiency, and the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, reducing fuel consumption.
- Reserves: Commercial oil and petroleum product inventories outside OPEC have increased in recent months. In the U.S., strategic oil reserves began to be replenished in the autumn, aided by record production and moderate prices. Additionally, some previously restricted volumes have returned to the market: for example, export deliveries from oil Kurdistan (Iraq) resumed after a long pause. The increase in reserves is adding to the downward pressure on prices.
Outlook. The oil market is ending the year in a state of relative equilibrium with a trend towards oversupply. Without serious unforeseen events, prices are likely to remain in a moderate range through year-end. Concerns about supply disruptions or intensified sanctions are preventing prices from collapsing; however, expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and shale companies are establishing a prevalence of bearish sentiment. Industry companies are focusing on cost control and risk hedging, while refineries are striving to optimise their product output (gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel) and logistics under restrained prices.
Gas Market: Europe is Confident Ahead of the Winter Season
Situation in Europe. The natural gas market is relatively stable despite the approaching winter. European countries have successfully accumulated significant volumes of gas in advance: according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of early November, EU gas storage facilities are approximately 85% full. Although this figure is lower than the previous year's level, it still provides a solid buffer in case of a cold winter. Diversification of supply sources has allowed for compensation of the reduction in Russian pipeline gas. Record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., Qatar, and other exporters are supporting supply in the European market.
- Reserves and Imports: The high level of storage combined with ongoing LNG supplies means that Europe enters the heating season well-prepared. Weak gas demand in Asia during the first half of the year has also worked in Europe’s favour, allowing additional cargos of LNG to be directed to European terminals.
- Prices: Thanks to accumulated reserves and alternative supplies, wholesale gas prices in the EU remain significantly below the peaks of 2022. In recent months, prices have fluctuated within a moderate range, reacting mainly to changes in weather. If winter is not extremely cold and competition from Asia for new LNG cargos remains moderate, the European gas market has a chance to navigate the season without price shocks.
- Demand and Generation: Energy efficiency efforts and weak industrial conditions restrain gas consumption. However, gas plays a key role in the energy sector as a balancing fuel: during periods of low generation from wind or solar power plants, the EU energy system increases the share of gas (and at times coal) generation, as seen in autumn during prolonged lulls in wind across Northern Europe.
Markets and Risks. Overall, the European gas market demonstrates resilience. Traders and energy companies are closely monitoring weather forecasts, maintenance schedules for infrastructure, and LNG tanker schedules to respond promptly to changes in balance. The main uncertainty remains temperature: prolonged cold spells could increase fuel draws from storage and push prices higher. However, compared to previous years, Europe feels more secure due to accumulated reserves and diversified import routes.
Electricity: Stability of Supply and Nuclear Renaissance
The electricity sector maintains stability of supply while authorities prioritise energy security amid the transition to clean energy. In 2025, several countries have intensified support for baseload capacities: for example, Japan has announced plans for the accelerated restart of idled nuclear reactors, aiming to reduce hydrocarbon imports and curb inflation. Such a "nuclear renaissance" is also being observed in other regions — more countries are considering nuclear generation and modern small modular reactors as a way to ensure energy system reliability and achieve decarbonisation goals.
Simultaneously, modernization of electrical grids and the development of "smart" infrastructure continues to promote the integration of an increasing share of renewables. Energy companies are investing in digital demand management systems and distributed networks to enhance supply flexibility. In the short term, thanks to sufficient reserves of traditional capacities (gas, coal, and nuclear power plants) and accumulated fuel stocks, the risk of electricity shortages this winter is minimal. However, the long-term trend towards energy transition requires the sector to maintain a constant balance between the adoption of new technologies and ensuring network reliability.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and Variability Challenges
The renewable energy sector demonstrates accelerated development in 2025. According to industry reports, global installed renewable capacity has significantly increased: large solar and wind power stations are being brought online — from China and India to Europe and the U.S. Global power generation from solar and wind has reached new highs — in the first half of 2025, its volume exceeded that of coal power plants for the first time. Major energy companies and investment funds are directing record funds into clean energy projects, while governments support the industry through ambitious goals and subsidies (for example, the UK’s plan to double jobs in the clean energy sector by 2030).
- Investments and Capacity: Annual investments in renewables are setting new records, approaching $700 billion in 2024 and continuing to grow in 2025. Capacity additions have increased by more than 10% compared to the previous year. However, to achieve the global goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030 (adopted at the COP28 summit), this is still inadequate — experts urge for a doubling of current construction and network modernisation rates.
- Infrastructure Challenges: The rapid growth of renewables has revealed integration complexities. In some regions, 2025 experienced periods where weak winds or droughts sharply reduced generation from wind and hydropower plants. To cover deficits, gas and coal plant generation had to be temporarily increased, conflicting with emissions reduction goals. These cases emphasise the need for accelerated development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) and flexible backup capacities capable of compensating for the variability of renewable generation.
- Company Strategies: Oil and gas and energy corporations are responding to energy transition trends by increasing investments in solar and wind projects, bioenergy, hydrogen technology, and carbon capture systems. Such diversification allows them to remain competitive as the share of fossil fuels in the global energy balance gradually declines.
Conclusion. Despite record progress, the world is still far from achieving climate goals. Growth in renewables must be accompanied by infrastructure modernisation and new political measures to eliminate bottlenecks and ensure sustainable sector development without energy supply disruptions.
Coal Sector: Demand Decline and Price Stabilisation
The global coal market in 2025 is under the influence of a long-term trend towards reduced dependence on coal in the energy balance. Analysts estimate that global coal consumption could decrease by 5-10% by the end of the year, as major economies continue to transition to cleaner energy sources. The drop in demand, particularly from China for imported coal, and overall market saturation have led to a moderate price decline compared to last year's levels. Futures for thermal coal have stabilised around $100–110 per tonne.
- Regional Features: In Europe and North America, coal use in electricity generation is steadily declining — old coal-fired power plants are being closed or converted to gas and biomass under climate policies. In Asia, by contrast, coal remains a significant fuel: India and some Southeast Asian countries are still commissioning new coal plants to meet rising electricity demand. However, even there, appetite for coal is restrained — projects are increasingly being reconsidered in favour of renewables or gas.
- Export and Production: Major coal exporters (Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa) are facing reduced external demand. For example, U.S. coal exports in the first half of 2025 fell by more than 10% due to reduced purchases from China and an oversupply in the global market. Mines are cutting production in line with lower demand to avoid accumulating excess inventories.
- Price Environment: Following sharp price spikes in 2022 amid the energy crisis, the coal market in 2025 is relatively calm. Current prices, although they have risen 5-7% over the last month due to seasonal demand increases, remain well below the record highs of the previous decade. Equilibrium is being maintained as supply quickly adapts to declining demand — several outdated capacities are closing, preventing prices from falling too low.
Outlook. Looking ahead, the pressure from climate agendas on the coal sector is expected to intensify: more countries are setting deadlines to phase out coal generation (for many developed countries — the 2040s). In developing economies, the focus is on emissions cleaning technologies and gradually reducing coal’s share. For investors, the coal sector remains a zone of heightened risks, although, in the short term, price surges may be possible depending on weather conditions and demand in Asia (for example, for coking coal used in metallurgy).
Market for Oil Products and Refining: Stable Supply and Government Regulation
The global market for petroleum products at the end of 2025 is characterised by relatively stable prices and sufficient supply levels. Prices for petrol and diesel have decreased compared to last year's peaks, reflecting the drop in crude oil prices and the absence of acute shortages in major markets. At the same time, margins for oil refineries remain tight due to high costs and a structural decline in demand for traditional fuels.
- Supply: New refining capacities brought online in the Middle East and Asia (including large refineries in China and the Persian Gulf countries) have increased the global supply of fuel. Concurrently, a number of outdated refineries in Europe and North America have reduced processing or closed due to low profitability and environmental regulations. Overall, global refining capacities exceed current demand, ensuring an adequate supply of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel.
- Demand: Petrol consumption is stagnating or declining in developed countries due to the growth of electric vehicles and enhanced fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines. Demand for diesel is also under pressure — more efficient technologies and alternatives are being implemented in transport and industry. The only segment showing recovery is aviation fuel (kerosene), where consumption is rising due to the revival of international flights, although it has yet to reach 2019 levels.
- Regulation in Russia: In autumn 2025, Russia continued its policy of strict control over the domestic oil products market. The government extended the temporary ban on petrol exports until the end of the year (with the possibility of extension into 2026), and restrictions on diesel exports are maintained — export of fuel abroad is permitted only when the domestic market is fully guaranteed. Additionally, the damping compensation mechanism for refineries has been adjusted: the price threshold has been increased, beyond which payments are reduced, thus decreasing export profitability at high global prices. Furthermore, additional fuel volumes from state reserves have been directed to regions facing shortages in summer to normalise the situation.
Results. The package of measures has stabilised fuel prices in Russia over the autumn. Wholesale prices for petrol and diesel, which reached peaks in August, have decreased and are holding in a narrow range. Retail prices have stopped rising sharply, although they still exceed last year's levels. With an improvement in fuel supply to gas stations and the completion of the harvest campaign, tension in the domestic fuel market has decreased. Experts note that, should current low oil prices persist, the government may cautiously ease export restrictions in early 2026 — but only on the condition of full saturation of the domestic market and stable price reductions for consumers.
